CC BY
9
УДК 331.332.1(496)
м. bAlan,
Doctor of Mathematical Sciences and Economics, Univ. Professor, SRI Institute for Economic Forecasting-NIER, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, e-mail: dr.mariana.balan@gmail.com
COMPARATIVE ANALYSES ON YOUTHS' EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ROMANIA'S REGIONS OF DEVELOPMENT
In the current conjecture the youths are faced with the emergence of uncertainty feelings regarding their own chances to have a "promising" debut on the labour market. The world crisis, the social reality with which all societies are faced brought again to the forefront the idea of the youths' vulnerability in the labour market. Youths on the labour market have particularities and specificities delimitating them from all other vulnerable groups present on the labour market. The 4 002 035 youths with ages between 15 and 29 years of age from Romania (on 1 January 2017) represent an enormous resource for the society. Romania, as the majority of the Member-States is faced with increasing higher challenges in the absorption and integration of youths in education systems and on the labour force market. The present paper presents a brief comparative analysis of the developments on the youths' labour market from Romania and other member-states in the post-crisis period. Highlighting regional disparities of the youths' labour market was realised by applying some descriptive statistic techniques.
Keywords: regions of development, regional disparities, youths' unemployment rate, youths' employment rate, NEET rate.
М. БАЛАН,
доктор математических наук и экономики, профессор, Институт экономического прогнозирования, Академия наук Румынии, Бухарест, e-mail: dr.mariana.balan@gmail.com
СРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ МОЛОДЕЖНОЙ ЗАНЯТОСТИ И БЕЗРАБОТИЦЫ В РЕГИОНАХ РАЗВИТИЯ РУМЫНИИ
В нынешней конъюнктуре молодые люди сталкиваются с появлением неуверенности в отношении своих собственных шансов на «многообещающий» дебют на рынке труда. Мировой кризис, социальная реальность, с которыми сталкиваются все общества, вновь выдвинули на первый план идею об уязвимости молодежи на рынке труда. У молодежи есть особенности, отличающие их от всех других уязвимых групп, участвующих на рынке труда. 4 002 035 молодых людей в возрасте от 15 до 29 лет из Румынии (данные на 1 января 2017 г.) представляют собой огромный ресурс для общества. Румыния, как и большинство государств - членов ЕС, сталкивается с растущими проблемами в привлечении и интеграции молодежи в системе образования и на рынке труда. В данной статье представлен краткий сравнительный анализ изменений на рынке труда молодежи Румынии и других государств - членов ЕС в посткризисный период. Выявление региональных различий на рынке труда молодежи было реализовано путем применения некоторых описательных статистических методов.
Ключевые слова: регионы развития, региональные различия, уровень безработицы среди молодежи, уровень занятости молодежи, уровень NEET.
Introduction
In Romania, youths with ages between 15 and 29 years represented 18 % from total population of the country on 1 January 2017. The employed population on the Romanian labour market is to its majority adult, and the representation of youths with ages between 15 and 24 years of age being under 5.71 % from total employed population. In the period 2008-2016 the number of youths employed in the labour market diminished by 287,23 thousand persons [10].
In the year 2016, unemployment among youths with ages between15 and 24 years of age was very high (20.6 %), and at the level of the regions the highest values were recorded in the regions South-Muntenia (29.8 %), South-East (28.9 %) and South-West Oltenia (27.5 %). In this context, attaining the objective of the strategy Europe 2020 regarding labour force employment (75 % for the population with ages between 20 and 64 years of age) requires adopting/improving measures for increasing the insertion degree of youths on the labour force market.
Among youths unemployment was and still is a generator of pressures on the labour market at national and regional level, individuals with ages between 15 and 24 years of age being the most affected by the crisis.
In the year 2016, on the labour market were employed by 287,33 thousand youths less against the year 2008, under the conditions in which the national population of youths decreased only by 49,844 thousand persons in the same period. The employment rate of the youths at national level, 22.3 % in 2016, continues to remain by 5.9 pp under the level of the one before the crisis. At the level of the regions of development, as well, the employment rate of youths did not reach the values of the year 2008, save for the North-East region where the population employment rate for the age segment 15 to 24 years had as of the year 2015 values higher than the one of the year 2008.
The unemployment rate among youths is 3.5 times higher compared with the one of the entire active population (20.6 % against 5.9 % in 2016). The decrease in the number of permanent jobs during the crisis affected disproportionately the youths as they are overrepresented in the category of temporary contracts. Even though temporary contracts represent very often a first step towards more stable forms of employment, these are identified also as potential generators of the segmented labour market, or of cyclical unemployment, as youths benefit less from training on the job, have lower wage levels and less favourable perspectives regarding employment and long-term career.
At the same time, specialised studies [1; 2] and specific statistic indicators of the labour market highlight both at national and regional level the existence of some discrepancies between the needs of hiring companies and the labour force trained by the educational institutions, so that the requirements imposed by employers in the employment process turned into a topic of general interest.
In the context of an increasingly higher level of unemployment, youths find it increasingly harder to find a job, and many of them might decide to extend their period of inactivity in the labour market or resume studying. This might represent
an investment for the future provided that matching competences are gained. Nevertheless, the reality is that many youths are neither in the labour market, nor in education or training, and these youths represent the NEET group.
In Romania, the NEET rate for youths with ages between 15-24 years increased in the period 2008-2016 by 5.8 pp. In the post-crisis period a slight decrease was recorded in the number of youths from this category at the level of all regions of development. In some regions, the NEET rate for this population segment recorded significant decreases against the year 2012: in the West region by 3.6 pp, in North-East region by 2 pp and in Bucharest-Ilfov by 1 pp.
The high level of unemployment and of the NEET rate among youths leads to decreasing employment chances of individuals in general, but also to diminished opportunities of economic development, both at regional and national level.
The issues faced by youths on the labour market have significant direct consequences from economic, social and even cultural perspective not only for them, but also for their families and communities (local, regional and national) in which they live. The most important effects of their inactivity are: economic risks related to present and future prospects on medium- and long-term (career development, future pension rights, etc.); social: poverty risk, of exclusion and self-exclusion of disengagement at individual level expressed by the incapacity of playing an active role in the community, as well as in the development of the society as such.
The present paper intends, in this broader context, to analyse the issues of the youths' labour market in regional context during the post-crisis in view of identifying some solutions for increasing the insertion degree of the youths on the labour market but also for counteracting the social and economic effects generated by the high numbers of unemployed youths or NEETs.
Brief presentation of the evolution of some indicators of the youths' labour market at the level of Romania's regions of development
From the administrative point of view, Romania had 320 cities (from among which 103 municipalities) and 2861 villages in 2017.
In 1998 was enforced the Law no.151 regarding regional development based on which were constituted the eight regions of development - corresponding statistically to NUTS2 by the voluntary association of counties [5].
According to the aspect regarding population density, differences exist between the regions. Without taking into account the region Bucharest-Ilfov with 1381.0 inhabitants/km2 - as result of the urban agglomeration represented by the Capital of the country - the highest density of population is registered in the region North-East (106.4 inhabitants/km2) - the region with the highest demographic dynamism from the country, while the lowest density is in the West region (63.0 inhabitants/km2) -the region with the highest decrease of population, and mountainous landscape for a large part of its surface.
The urbanisation degree of the regions is also relatively different. Save for the region Bucharest-Ilfov the most urbanised regions are the regions West and Centre which have over 60 % urban population.
In turn, in the eastern part of the country (North-East region) and the entire southern part (the regions South-Muntenia and South-West Oltenia) the rural population is still predominant, as these are areas with wide flatland surfaces where agricultural activities are preponderant.
The analysis of statistical data highlight that Romania entered into the transition period with a relatively low level of regional disparities, as compared with other member-states or candidate countries [4]. However, these discrepancies increased rapidly, in particular between Bucharest and the rest of the country.
Based on the Eurostat statistics [4] the regional disparity index was calculated for the period 2008-2015 (Table 1), with the help of the relationship:
GDPreg / Inhab.
-reg--100. (1)
GDPna / Inhab.
Table 1. Regional disparity indices
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Region
North-West 86.57 87.50 89.33 87.65 88.37
Centre 95.52 94.44 93.33 92.59 93.02
North-East 62.69 62.50 61.33 60.49 61.63
South-East 85.07 90.28 90.67 85.19 86.05
South-Muntenia 76.12 79.17 85.33 79.01 79.07
Bucharest-Ilfov 232.84 234.72 234.67 240.74 238.37
South-West Oltenia 74.63 73.61 72.00 71.60 73.26
West 105.97 104.17 101.33 103.70 103.49
The analysis of the data in Table 1 underpins that during the post-crisis period no changes occurred in the ranking of regions according to the regional disparity index, the only regions with a GDP/capita higher than the one at national level being Bucharest-Ilfov, and West.
Even though statistical data regarding the socio-economic situation of the regions of development presents some variations in time (especially due to local factors), their analysis indicates that the economic growth had a significant geographic component, the underdeveloped regions being concentrated in North-East, at the border with Moldova and in South, along the Danube. Thus, it might be stated that the regional disparity poles are given by the region North-East with a GDP/capita of 5300 euro/capita and the Bucharest-Ilfov region with 20 500 euro/capita, that is almost four times higher than the one of the North-East region for the year 2016.
According to the Eurostat statistics [4], all regions from Romania have a low level of development for the year 2016, as five out of the eight NUTS 2 Romanian
regions were included into the ten least developed regions of the European Union regarding GDP per inhabitant, and the North-East region was one of the five poorest regions of the EU.
The weak economic performances at the level of the regions of development are determined by a multitude of factors, from among which the structure and size of human resources may prove very important.
Youths on the labour market have particularities and specifics that delimitate them from the other vulnerable groups present in the labour market.
Both at regional and national level a delimitation of the youths' labour market may be done between two poles: i) youths with a high training level, prepared for activities requiring high- and top-skills and ii) youths failing to benefit from the opportunities provided by the education system, by the one of vocational-educational training who are placed at the opposite pole, of low-skills if not inexistent [3].
While unemployment is the most pressing challenge for the youths, the employment rates decreased for the last years. In 2016, the employment rate of youths with ages between 15 and 24 years at national level was of 22.3 % on decrease by 2.2 pp against the year 2015, when the highest level of this rate was recorded for the period of post-crisis.
In the period 2012-2016, in the majority of the regions of development, the employment rate of the youths with ages between 15-24 years diminished so that in 2016, this rate did not attain the values of the year 2012 (Fig. 1). The exception is represented by the region North-East where this indicator had an ascending trend for the analysed period (Fig. 1). Some of the reasons influencing this evolution are: i) the high weight of the population with ages between 15-24 years in this region: on 1 July 2017, 12.03 % of the total population in the North-East region was represented by youths with ages between 15-24 years, ii) the lowest weight of youths who have temporary migrated.
Fig. 1. Evolution of the youths' employment rate (15-24 years of age), on regions of development in Romania, (%)
At regional level significant differences emerge about the employment rate of youths with ages between 15 and 24 years of age, showing that the lowest employment rates were recorded in the West region (16.0 %) and Centre (18.3 %) while regions like North-East (33.3 %), and South-Muntenia (23.9 %) have a far better situation in 2016.
The economic recession had as effect also the increase in the employment rate differences on genders. In all regions of Romania, the employment rate of youths with ages between 15 and 24 years was higher for men than for women. The highest differences were registered in the regions Centre, South-East and South-Muntenia (Fig. 2). For the age segment from 25 to 29 years of age the gap between the employment rate for men and women was even higher (Fig. 2), and in the regions North-East, South-East, South-Muntena, South-West Oltenia and West were registered the highest values.
Significant disparities of regional employment might be observed also between the urban and rural area. According to the statistical data of the National Institute of Statistics [11], in all regions of the country, save for the region Bucharest-Ilfov (the employment rate in the urban area was equal to the one in the rural area: 18.3 %), the employment rate of young individuals (15 to 24 years of age) in the rural area was higher than in the urban area (Fig. 3) in 2016. In North-East region, 42.1 % from the young persons in this age group were individuals employed in the rural area and only 17.6 % in the urban area.
Regarding employment by professional status and NUTS 2 Romanian regions, for the age group 15 to 24 years of age, the highest weight is held by employed persons. The analysis of the young population structure in territorial profile according to professional status underpins significant differences between them, and these differences became even more marked in the period 2012-2016 (Fig. 4) [7; 8]. Thus, in the North-East region, in this professional category were comprised 137,9 thousand persons in 2016, while in the West region this category had only 31,1 thousand persons.
30
(%>
25 -
Fig. 2. Gap between the employment rate of men and women for the age groups 15 to 24 years
and 25-29 years in the year 2016
Fig. 3. Youths' employment rate (15-24 years of age) at regional level and on areas of residence, in 2016 (%)
Fig. 4. Youths' employment (15-24 years of age), by professional status and NUTS 2 Romanian regions, (thousand persons)
Young Romanians are faced with a rigid labour market, lacking flexible employment forms that would allow for continuing studying in parallel with employment. Only about 79,7 thousand persons (16.5% of the total employment for young people) with ages between 15 and 24 years of age from Romania had part-time employment in 2016, against 5963,2 thousand persons (32 %) at EU-28 level. In the same year, 14,4 thousand youths from Romania worked based on temporary labour contracts against 7530,3 thousand persons at EU-28 level. For many youths, who have a temporary, or part-time job, this period might be seen as an important state towards more permanent forms of employment. Nevertheless, temporary contracts limit financial and personal autonomy of youths. Moreover, under the conditions in which the contractual temporary employment is repeatedly not finalised by permanent labour relationship on contractual basis, this contributes to a certain extent to the phe-
nomenon of youths' discouragement who might abandon seeking for a stable job, the implications being significant at individual, family and community level.
The lack of experience, the specifics of the human capital within the firm, the experience on the labour market of the youths, the higher probability of working within the firm for a determined period of time, and all other precarious forms of employment are but few of the factors leading to the increase in the numbers of unemployed among youths.
The data about unemployment among youths at regional level show significant differences at the level of this indicator varying between 12.5 % in the North-East region and 31.9 % in the Centre region for the age group 15-24 years, in 2012 and between 9.2 % in the North-East region and 29.8 % in the South-Muntenia region, in 2016 (Fig. 5). In the period 2012-2016, the youths' unemployment rate at the level of the regions of development had, in general, an oscillating evolution, but in the South-East region this trend was on decrease for this period, while in the South-West Oltenia region the trend was increasing (Fig. 5). The analysis of statistical data about the evolution of the regional unemployment rate among this segment of population indicates that in all regions, save for South-West Oltenia region, the values of this indicator are under the ones of the year 2012. At the same time, the highest diminishment of the unemployment rate among youths in the analysed period was recorded in the Centre region (by 8.2 pp) and the highest increase in the region South-West Oltenia (by 7.9 pp).
Large part of the unemployment among youths is chronic and extending for longer than 1 year: 33.0 % from total unemployed less than 25 years of age were long-term unemployed in December 2016.
Regarding youths unemployment after educational level, unemployed with primary, secondary and vocational education have the highest weight in total unemployed: 54.34 % for the age group 15 to 24 years of age, and 73.69 % for those with ages between 25 and 29 years of age (Fig. 6) [12].
Fig. 5. Evolution of the regional unemployment rate among youths with ages between 15 and 24 years
Fig. 6. Distribution of young unemployed on age groups and educational level,
December 2016
A special risk is represented by the fact that graduating higher education does not improve success chances on labour market in Romania, which is contrary to the trend at global level. Thus, ILO unemployment among individuals with ages between 15 and 24 years of age who graduated upper-secondary, or post-upper-secondary schools was of 41.29 % and 4.37 % among graduates of higher education, while for the age group 25 to 29 years of age the level was of 19.07 %, respectively 8.12 % in December 2016. The access of higher education graduates in the labour market is hindered also because employers prefer personnel with experience.
In the majority of regions, the unemployment rate among youths continued to decrease, however, they continue to be faced with high rates of unemployment [9]. If adults registered an unemployment rate of 5.9 %, the youths were faced with an unemployment rate by 20.6 % in 2016 (Fig. 7). This fact means that the ratio between the youths' and adults' unemployment rate is 3.49 at national level. The ratio was higher than 4 in the region Centre (4.56) and Bucharest-Ilfov (4.21) and under 3 just in the South-West Oltenia region (2.78) (Fig. 7).
n
10
South N luntenia
•
Soi ith-East---%
West Center •
North-West - S # *
North-E ast
J3
S
o
>H
10
15 20 25
Unemployment rate, (%)
30
Fig. 7. Unemployment rate in the regions of development from Romania in 2016
During the last four years, the number of vacancies remained relatively stable as average, but the unemployment rate continued to increase, which indicates a continuing deterioration of the labour force market.
In territorial profile, including here the year 2016, the rate of vacancies continued to increase (Fig. 8) the highest values of the indicator being recorded in the regions West (1.84 %) and Bucharest-Ilfov (1.57 %).
Regarding the yearly average number of vacancies, employers had in 2016 the most significant labour force demand based on wages in the Bucharest-Ilfov region (16,0 thousand vacancies), which represented about V from the number of vacancies at national level [6].
At the opposite pole, regarding the rate of vacancies, the lowest values were recorded in the South-West Oltenia region (0.51 %) followed by the South-East region (0.94%), which hold together about 10 % from total vacancies.
17.4 % from among the youths in Romania (youths aged 15 to 24 years neither in employment, nor in education or training) were classified as NEET in 2016. High values of this indicator were recorded in all regions and were slightly under the unemployment rate for young individuals with ages from 15 to 24 years of age [4]. Values above 20 pp were recorded in the regions South-East, Centre and South-Mun-tenia (Fig. 9), and the lowest NEET rates were recorded in the West (10.4 %), NorthEast (11.3 %) and Bucharest-Ilfov (11.7 %) in 2016.
The analysis of the evolution of the regional NEET rate reveals that it differs strongly depending on gender, being usually much higher for women than for men. The women-men gap of the NEET rate is considerable for a series of regions, reaching 13.2 pp in the South-East region and 11.2 pp in the region South-Muntenia and having values above 1.7 pp in the region South-West Oltenia and 2.37 pp in the region Bucharest-Ilfov.
■2012 B2Q13 »2014 ■ 20H B2016
North-West Center North-East South-East South- Bucharest- South- West
Muntenia Ilfov West
Oltenia
Fig. 8. Evolution of vacancies'rate on regions of development
Fig. 9. Evolution of the NEET rate for the youth group with ages between 15 and 24 years on regions of development
Exclusion from employment, education and training is for each of the regions and at national level an issue of particular seriousness. The long-term consequences of the situation of youths who are neither in education, employment or training are drastic: poverty and exclusion from social life. In other words, poverty, marginalisation and social exclusion represent the logical consequences of a possible failure in investing in human capital and in the education dedicated to youths.
Disparities on the youths' labour market at the level of the regions of development in Romania are due also to the differences in the size and structure of definitive or temporary migration flows at the level of each region. If, until some years ago, migrants with secondary education had the highest weight regarding Romanian migrants, in the last period is noticed a strong increase of the migrants' segment with higher education and competences. The Romanian 'brain drain', especially among youths creates at regional and national level a deficit of valuable individuals who might contribute on medium- and long-term to economic growth and living standard increase in Romania.
Conclusions
The high level of unemployment among youths is representative and has two major influences: the decrease of employment chances of youths in general, and the diminishment of economic development opportunities both at regional and national level.
At regional level important differences emerge regarding the employment rate of youths with ages between 15 and 24 years of age, the lowest values of the employment rate being registered in the regions West (16.0 %) and Centre (18.3 %), and the highest in the regions South-Muntenia (23.9 %) and North-East (33.3 %) in 2016.
The North-East region is the only one characterised by an increasing employment rate for youths in the period 2012-2016.
At regional level, as result of the economic recession, the gap increased between the employment rates on gender. The highest differences between the employment rate of young men and young women (with ages between 15 and 24 years of age) were recorded in the regions Centre, South-East and South-Muntenia. For the age segment 25 to 29 years of age, the gap of the employment rate between men and women was even higher in the regions North-East, South-East, South-Muntenia, SouthWest Oltenia and West were the highest values were recorded.
Significant disparities of regional employment between the urban and rural area were recorded during the entire analysed period, with more marked diminishments for this indicator in the rural area.
In the period 2012-2016, the youths' unemployment rate at the level of the regions of development had, in general, an oscillating evolution, however the values of 2016 were below the ones of 2012. The exception is represented by the regions South-East (where decreasing unemployment was recorded) and South-West Oltenia (with increasing unemployment). Significant diminishments of the unemployment rate among youths (15 to 24 years of age) for the analysed period were recorded in the region Centre (by 8.2 pp), and the highest increase in the South-West Oltenia region (by 7.9 pp).
At regional level significant differences were recorded for the unemployment rate of the youths, the level of this indicator varying between 9.2 % in the region North-East and 29.8 % in the region South-Muntenia in 2016.
In territorial profile, the rate of vacancies continued to increase with the highest values for this indicator being recorded in the regions West (1.84 %) and Bucha-rest-Ilfov in 2016, as well. At the opposite pole are the regions South-West Oltenia (0.51 %) and South-East (0.94 %) as these regions have together about 10 % of total vacancies.
In 2016, 17.4 % of the youths from Romania were classified as NEET (young individuals with ages between 15 and 24 years who are neither in employment, nor in education or training). The high values of this indicator were recorded in all regions. Values above 20 pp were recorded in the regions South-East, Centre and South-Muntenia, and the lowest NEET rates were registered in the regions West (10.4 %), North-East (11.3 %) and Bucharest-Ilfov (11.7 %).
At the same time, in 2016, the gap between women and men for the NEET rate is considerable in a series of regions, reaching 13.2 pp. in the South-East region and 11.2 pp in the South-Muntenia region and values about 1.7 pp. in the region SouthWest Oltenia and 2.37 pp in the Bucharest-Ilfov region.
Unemployment among youths generates long-term effects both on income and on the stability of the job because the youths affected by unemployment have a lower level of credibility, and are less confident and flexible when discussing about employment opportunities, as they have a harder development from the professional point of view.
For young individuals, the increase in the NEET period might have severe individual consequences, but also for the community in which they are both on short-
and long-term. These consequences might be of financial nature, but also of social nature: isolation, involvement in risks related to physical and psychical unstable behaviour.
This is an issue that needs to be approached with maximum attention both at regional and national level.
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nocmynuna 15.11.2018 г.
