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124"COLOR REVOLUTIONS" Gagik Terterov
In information space it is common to use the term "color revolutions" in reference to pre-mediated array of protests in various countries resulting in overthrow of the government. Actions with information/psychological impact and their resultant effects are widely used in such processes [1, 2]. Among the "color revolutions" the following are classical examples:
• Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia, 2000.
• Rose Revolution in Georgia, 2003.
• Orange Revolution in Ukraine, 2004.
• Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, 2005.
• Revolution of Dignity, more widely known as Euromaidan, in Ukraine, 20132014.
This list can be expanded by Lotus Revolution in Egypt, and coup d'état in Tunisia that occurred in the context of Arab Spring, which started in 2011. Some scholars also consider the 1990-1991 Liberal Revolution in Russia was also a "color" one. There have been a number of unsuccessful (to one or another extent) attempts of such revolutions in Belarus (2006), Armenia (2008), Moldova (2009), Russia (the so-called Bolotnaya Revolution1 in 2011-2013) and China (Jasmine Revolution in 2011). In the latter case the activists were even able to temporarily capture a TV station in Shanghai and voice their objectives in a live broadcast).
As seen, the "color revolutions" or attempts of those happen quite often and thus, they have become an element of modern politics. In the course of the history, there certainly have been revolutions (French, English, Russian or Chinese) caused by social and economic order, and the need of relevant changes in political system.
* Expert.
1 This name is related to Bolotnaya ("Swamp" in Russian) Square in Moscow, where the major events unfolded.
However, the above mentioned examples of "color revolutions" were totally different in their nature and goals. This new type of revolutions is mainly based on geopolitical and geo-economic factors, and is a continuation of politics by some superpowers through use of the so-called "soft power". At the same time, "color revolutions" and attempts to implement them imply some preconditions, among which the following have to be emphasized:
External reasons and prerequisites of "color revolutions'': As it is known, after the collapse of the USSR, the end of Cold War has been heralded numerous times at some very high political levels. However, traditional geopolitical and geo-economic antagonisms between the West, Russia and new superpower China evolved tremendously. Apparently, a new, Second Cold War is unfolding at global level, the arsenal of which includes new concepts of information/psychological warfare and methodologies of their application widely utilized in the situation arisen. Moreover, in conditions of the current multipolar world order, a significant role in such operations is played not only militarily and economically advanced countries, but also nongovernment organizations that possess great resources. In multi-faceted conflicts, in order to weaken the adversary, or in some cases overthrow the government, the controversies within specific countries are used, particularly those related to human rights or election irregularities. In this aspect, the following approaches are worth mentioning:
1. An attempt of "color revolution" is made in the adversary country, but it is aimed not at overthrowing the government, which is impossible due to a number of reasons. The goal for "revolutionary" actions in such situation is a large-scale show in information space that negatively affects the reputation of the adversary. As a result, for example, economic indicators of such country deteriorate (so-called "effects"). Also, the "actively protesting" groups in adversary country cause additional complications in domestic policies. The Bolotnaya Revolution in Russia and Jasmine revolution in China are examples of such revolutions.
2. A "color revolution" is executed not in the adversary country, but in a country under the latter's influence; the country's escape from the adversary's sphere of influence weakens its political, economic and other positions in the region. The most vivid examples of this are the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia and
the Ukrainian revolution in 2013. Their obvious goals were to pull these countries away from Russia in civilizational, political and economic sense. Societies that carry out such revolution typically find themselves in a hot seat. For example, Georgia launched a war in South Ossetia and effectively, lost this territory for good, while Ukraine lost Crimea, got an uncertain situation in Donbass and Lugansk, and the Ukrainian GDP diminished 2.5 times between 2014 and 2015. Hence, the only purpose of such revolutions is creation of long -term tensions between the adversary and "target country", the interests of which are served in no manner. Worded differently, the well-known principle "the worse, the better" is in action.
3. The strategic goal of "color revolutions" is to create a regional "instability zone" around the adversary or even allied countries. As a result, the countries in the region encounter various problems. Examples of such large-scale operations are the "revolutions" in the Greater Middle East, in aftermath of which ISIS emerged, while Syria, Iraq and Libya pitched headfirst into chaos and other countries of the region face instability. This situation is a threat both for Russia and China, because the extremism and chaos reigning in the region may be (and in some case already are) exported to the territory of these countries. The European allies of the USA also face enormous problems related to millions of migrants that leave their region for Europe, and this can be considered as a "strait-jacket" for "friends".
Stirring intestine strife in adversary's society is not a new method. However, modern approaches differ not only in that they aggregate and systemize the past experiences. Importantly, these revolutionary approaches are programmed and implemented in the context of overall global strategy and total "cold" war, where information and psychological operations are the most important, often the decisive factor. In this sense, modern political and information developments have to be viewed in a "single package".
At the same time, while in the past only data from intelligence and diplomatic services were needed to create instability in one or another country, now the influencer tries to obtain as comprehensive as possible information on the targeted society. Special attention is paid to the political, socioeconomic conditions, study of psy-
chological and value system of the population. Obviously, only knowledge of this sort makes possible to effectively organize and use the "revolutionary force" of the society. Such knowledge allows uncovering the critical infrastructures of the society, which increases the efficiency of operations. Thus, the necessity to command knowledge on targeted society can be perceived as the main condition in the perspective of arranging an external intervention.
Internal prerequisites of "color revolutions": Not in all countries "color revolutions" are possible to implement. If in the ideological, scientific, technological, social and economic areas of a society effective examples and rules are in place, then the possibility of revolutions in such country can be considered only theoretically. However, ideal society is a utopia.
In all other cases, if the society has big problems and no trend is noticeable for their solution, then such country may at least become a target for active operations (of course, if the intended changes coincide with the strategy of the influencer). This factor has to be considered the main internal prerequisite for implementation of a color revolution in a specific country.
However, not all societies are ready to undertake radical steps and government overthrow, even if the problems objectively exist. In this context the primary task of the revolution organizers is to form the needed forces and infrastructures in the targeted societies, which can assist, and if necessary, actively participate in revolutionary processes.
These are various non-government organizations (NGO) financed by international structures. Experts estimate that in post-Soviet countries their number comprises several tens of thousands. In Ukraine alone, the number of experts that receive grants from international funds is about 40,000. These are the people who actively participate in "round tables" and rallies, become organizers and leaders of "revolutionary" movements. Unsurprisingly, in some countries these organizations are legally ascribed the status of an "agent", which to some extent limits their potential activities.
In preparing revolutions an important role is played by the so-called "agents of influence". These are persons who exert influence on political circles and public opinion and represent interests of other countries in their own country. It has to be noted that recruiting such people does not involve methods featured in "spy mov-
ies". In the context of the discussed problem these could be simply people who are adherents of the political/ideological vector of the country or entity by which the revolution is organized. Such people or organizations are inclined to be not guided by the interests of own country, when it is needed, but rather by their own world-view conceptions or the specific advice they receive from foreign structures. In the politics, these persons are considered not traitors of their homeland, but of the national interests, while in influencing countries they receive a lot more pompous name: "evangelists of democracy".
At the same time it is wrong to think that all implementers of color revolutions are agents of another country or members of grant receiving NGOs. A certain part among those who participate in protest actions is comprised of regular citizens of the country (mostly residents of the capital city where the main events unfold), who want to see more justice and prosperity in their country. This part of population is influenced by a well-developed information/psychological impact and thus, assumes the role of the "people" in revolution. As demonstrated by the Ukrainian events, after a short while following the coup, this segment of the people are the ones who feel bitter disappointment when they see the ramifications of the revolution.
An important role is played by mass media that receive assistance from foreign structures, and also from the above mentioned NGOs (among which there are many "fighters for freedom of speech and media"). From the perspective of information influence it is remarkable that virtually all revolutions have attractive names (except the Serbian Bulldozer Revolution, after which the country was bombarded in 1999, and that can be perceived as continuation of the force show politics): Rose, Tulip, Orange, etc. Under pertinent news coverage these names become sort of brands, which in turn help attracting new adherents of a revolutionary movement.
To summarize the mentioned factors, it can be accepted that internal prerequisites of programmed revolutions are as follows:
• Existence of internal problems in the targeted societies;
• Existence of the necessary and sufficient quantity, or so-called "critical mass" of structures, including those with information resources, which represent the interests of the influencer in the targeted country.
However, in this regard it has to be noted that activities of such structures imply certain possibilities of targeted funding.
Funding the color revolutions: It is assumed that one of the main resource centers for "revolutions" is the East European Democratic Center (Wschodnioeuro-pejskie Centrum Demokratyczne, WECD) headquartered in Warsaw. This organization was established and is financed by the Institute for Democracy in Eastern Europe (IDEE).
The official website of WECD claims that they implement educational and training activities mostly for journalists, educators, regional publishers and NGO activists. In addition to the main programs, WECD collaborates with a number of scientific, research and analytic groups, cultural centers, as well as supports cultural and information publishing activities. The organization's objectives are indicated as: "spread of democratic ideology, assistance to civic endeavors and non-government programs, building open society, education on human rights and democratic freedoms, support to social and public reforms in post-communist countries."
Some researchers note that revolutions and protest movements are also funded by Open Society Institute of George Soros, US-based International Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute, London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and some others. Media reports suggest that only the latter invested about $100M in Serbian revolution. In this regard it has to be mentioned that color revolutions and other similar operations are incomparably less expensive in achieving geopolitical goals that military operations, which makes them attractive.
However, even all of the above is not enough to cause mass rallies, riots and consequent coups in targeted countries. In Tsarist Russia Bolsheviks meticulously developed revolutionary methods, and in the party's internal communications there was a concept of "professional revolutionary". The Bolsheviks could never dream though, that time will come when revolutionary activities turn into technological process and professional revolutionaries will be "produced" in thousands.
"Colorrevolution" technologies. In his young years Gene Sharp was fascinated by the ideology of permanent revolutions of Lev Trotsky, one of the Bolshevik leaders, and also by the philosophy of non-violent actions in politics of Mahatma Gandhi, the leader of India's independence movement. Perhaps, influence of these incompatible ideologies (Bolsheviks, and especially Trotsky, were known for their intolerance
and cruelty) was the foundation based on which Sharp published his quite voluminous work The Politics of Nonviolent Action (where incidentally, some technologies of violent actions are also present) [3]. The book presents in detail 198 methods to carry out political struggle, which can be divided in three main categories:
1. Nonviolent protest and persuasion;
2. Social, economic and political noncooperation;
3. Nonviolent intervention.
Many of nonviolent actions suggested by Sharp (rallies, petitions, strikes, hunger strikes, etc.) are quite common in any protest actions, but there are also some "novelties". For example, in the Chapter Symbolic Public Acts it is recommended not only to light candles and torches, but also undress during rallies (which is enthusiastically performed by gender and LGTB activists). A special emphasis is placed on "artistic design" of rallies. It is suggested that protests are more effective when accompanied by songs, dances and theatrical performances. During Euromaidan rallies the techniques of "love attack" were actively used to let everybody know how many beautiful ladies and flowers are present in Euromaidan. In the evenings the gathered protesters would light candles and sing the anthem of the country. Generally, the music component was used quite intensively in Euromaidan: enough to mention that there was a rock music concert uninterrupted for 14 days. The "Maidan songs" were mostly political. For example, two songs were the anthems revolution: "Orange sky" and "Together we are many". The media pushed the thesis that there are hundreds of thousands or even millions of people in Maidan. However, "beautiful tools" were not the only ones used in Maidan. For example, it was announced and even "demonstrated" that those who are against Maidan are "gloomy and evil soldiers, old-timers, hooligans and criminals that support the government for money. This how the "image of enemy" was formed: as provocateurs with criminal past that beat women and children in protest rallies and get paid for that. The images of violence were followed by actual violent actions; in frantic shooting both protesters and law enforcement were killed. Consequently, in parallel to deepening political crisis, a new enemy image in South-West was discovered: Russian military terrorists.
Not all recommendations of Sharp can be considered even formally nonviolent. In paragraph 158 of Chapter Psychological Intervention one of the methods is "self-exposure to the elements", which may include self-suffocation and self-immolation. Obviously, urging and preparing people to suicide is a direct violence against person.
Thus, application of Sharp's methods implies training and preparedness of "professional revolutionaries". For this purpose, even special structures were created. For example, Political Academy for Central and Southeast Europe was established in Bulgaria, where special trainings were organized for Serbian opposition. Balkan Academy of Leading Reporters provided financial and technical support to Serbian opposition media. There were also some special computer games. The well-known game A Force More Powerful was developed by International Center on Nonviolent Conflict, which, among other things, trains opposition activists in a simple format how to change the political situation in their countries.
In any case, the value of Sharp's advices is in that he was able to aggregate and systemize the existing protest methods, provide a theoretical foundation for them and turn them into a political technology. Interestingly enough, he later founded the Albert Einstein Institution ("an attractive name"), which is financed, particularly, by National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute that consistently support organizations involved in "color revolutions".
However, protests are organized not only by advocates of liberal ideology, but also by their opponents. The most prominent one among such actions of protest so far is the Occupy Wall Street movement launched in 2011, aimed at "uncovering" and tearing down the modern "unjust capitalism" and "global economic system" [4, 5]. The movement was founded by a Canadian anti-consumerist NGO that periodically organized campaigns like "Buy Nothing Day" or "TV Turnoff Week". The Occupy Wall Street call was quickly responded by many trade unions, as well as tens of thousands of people. The renowned hacktivist group Anonymous assisted the movement in its characteristic manner, by carrying out hacking attacks on electronic systems of banks and exchanges. Interestingly, the polls organized by CBS and New York Times indicated that the movement enjoys support of some 43% of Americans, whereas only 27% oppose it.
As a result, protest marches, rallies and mass actions took place not only in the USA, but in many other countries. In 2016 in relation to the US presidential elections, protest actions were organized with slogans along the lines of "down with oligarchy and long live fair elections". The organizers (including Noam Chomsky, a political scientist known for his dissident views) gave quite a resonant name to this movement: Democracy Spring. Thus, everything was done as prescribed by Gene Sharp...
In any case, it can be stated that Sharp's technologies are widely used today both as intended (in political "color revolutions") and in various other protest rallies the number of which grows by day all over the world. Moreover, sometimes these technologies are used by the "technologists" of the very same countries where protests take place, in order to "discharge" the tensions accumulated in the society.
June, 2016.
References
1. НарочницкаяНА., Оранжевые сети. От Белграда до Бишкека. - М. , Изд-во: СПб., 2008.
2. Гундарева Л, Как готовят цветные революции // НВО, #19 (902), 2016.
3. Sharp, G, 198 Methods of Nonviolent Action, http://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/198-methods-of-nonviolent-action/
4. АрутюнянГ., Гриняев С., Состоится ли «захват Уолл-стрит»? // «21-й ВЕК», #1, с. 5, 2012.
5. Арутюнян Г., Гриняев С., Революции оптом: достраивание нового миропорядка и сценарии глобального управления.
http://noravank.am/rus/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=5617.
