CC BY
122
https://doi.org/10.29013/EJEMS-20-2-49-58
Gelvig Svetlana,
PhD Candidate in Economics, School of Business Hunan University of Science and Technology (China)
E-mail: gsvetik89@mail.ru
CHINA-KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND "ONE BELT, ONE ROAD" INITIATIVE
Abstract. China and Kazakhstan are long-term partners, which economic relations have reached a new level of strategic partnership. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative brings new opportunities and challenges for the development ofbilateral economic interactions and for the entire Central Asia region. The author made an original analysis of the main components of economic cooperation between the two countries, including energy cooperation, current trade infrastructure and identifying the prospects for implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
Keywords: China, Kazakhstan, energy cooperation, trade, international economy, transportation, "One Belt, One Road".
Гельвиг Светлана, Хунаньский Университет Науки и Технологии (КНР) Кандидат Экономических Наук, Школа Бизнеса
E-mail: gsvetik89@mail.ru
КИТАЙСКО-КАЗАХСТАНСКОЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО И ИНИЦИАТИВА «ОДИН ПОЯС, ОДИН ПУТЬ»
Аннотация. Китай и Казахстан являются долгосрочными партнерами, экономические отношения которых вышли на новый уровень стратегического партнерства. Инициатива «Один Пояс, Один Путь» открывает новые возможности и вызовы, как для развития двустороннего экономического взаимодействия, так и для всего региона Центральной Азии. Автором статьи проведен оригинальный анализ основных составляющих экономического сотрудничества между двумя странами, включая энергетическое сотрудничество, текущую торговую инфраструктуру и выявление перспектив от воплощения инициативы «Один пояс, Один Путь».
Ключевые слова: Китай, Казахстан, энергетическое сотрудничество, торговля, международная экономика, транспортация, «Один Пояс, Один Путь».
China and Kazakhstan have maintained close in Eurasia. In recent years, though the total trade vol-economic and trade cooperation for a long time. Up ume between China and Kazakhstan has declined, the to now, China has become Kazakhstan's second larg- complementarity ofgeo-economy, resources, technolest export market and largest source of import, while ogy and cooperation between the two countries is still Kazakhstan is China's first trade partner in Central very significant, which will provide a huge space for the Asia and the first foreign investment target country continuous development of bilateral trade in future.
At present, China attaches great importance to Kazakhstan from many sides; Kazakhstan has become a key factor in Beijing's overall Central Asia policy. The cooperation between Kazakhstan and China is very diverse and in-depth, which is largely owing to geographical factors, needs of mutual economic partnership and high-level political cooperation, i.e. cooperation in the field of strategic partnership. Due to the complexity of bilateral relations, on the one hand, Kazakhstan-China relations are highly stable; on the other hand, they are affected by multi-level factors in bilateral and global forms. The Eurasian Union, world economy crisis, the competition between Russia and the West, and the threat of terrorism; all of these factors have an impact on the complexity of Kazakhstan-China cooperation.
The new territory for further cooperation is the "One Belt, One Road" initiative (OBOR). OBOR, or Silk Road Economic Belt project, was jointly created and adopted by China's president Xi Jinping, in order to strengthen further economic ties between Eurasian countries. The new economic corridor includes more than 30 countries, spanning Eurasia from the Pacific to the Baltic. In other words, it covers an area of three billion people. China's Silk Road Economic Belt initiative marks the strengthening of China's diplomacy to Central Asia and brings new opportunities to Kazakhstan. China plans to develop a number ofpolitical and economic opportunities under the three themes of political cooperation, international trade and investment through the Silk Road Economic Belt Project.
Kazakhstan and China are developing transportation infrastructure and increasing transit and logistics capabilities. Therefore, it is possible to implement some Kazakh projects through the Silk Road regional project, together with Kazakhstan's "Nurly Zhol" plan. "Nurly Zhol" is 9 billion USD domestic stimulus plan to develop and modernize roads, railways, ports, IT infrastructure, and education and civil services in Kazakhstan over 2014-2019. Multiplier effect from the infrastructure spending includes contribution to GDP of 1.18% in 2017 and up to 4.1% in 2019. The program
is expected to create 405,000 new jobs over the full course of implementation [1-9]. For that reason, Kazakhstan and China continue to strengthen cooperation in various fields. The platform for this relationship has developed over the years of independence and has accumulated serious potential for stability. Even now, in the context of the crisis in international relations and the trade barriers of the Eurasian Union, it has not had a negative impact. On the contrary, it has brought positive impetus to the development of this relationship. That's why China attaches great importance to Kazakhstan, which has become a key factor in Beijing's overall Central Asian policy.
Among all the factors affecting China-Kazakhstan relations, geographical location is definitely the most obvious, but at the same time, for many reasons, it is still one of the most in-depth and influential factors. First of all, the whole Central Asia region is related to China's national interests. It is significant that China's foreign policy has a clear geographical priority, which means the countries bordering with China are the most important countries in the development of relations. This is understandable pragmatism: there is a belt of friendly countries around the borders of any country, which makes it possible to maintain stability without participating in border conflicts. As one of the major trading countries, China's interest in it is unique. Kazakhstan is one of the important countries in Central Asia, and plays a special role in this regard, especially in the development of border trade, the establishment of special zones, such as the International Center for cross-border cooperation "Horgos" (ICBC "Horgos"), and investment in joint infrastructure such as roads and railways. But most importantly, Beijing's peaceful geopolitical interests on the western border have created a favorable background for Kazakhstan-China political relations.
Kazakhstan is rich in natural resources, especially in mineral resources. Many energy and mineral reserves accounts for a high proportion of global reserves, such as tungsten over 50% (for the country), uranium 25% (8.1 of global), chrome ore 23%, lead 19% (2.3 for
global), zinc 13% (5.0 for global), copper and iron 10% (world ranking 11). See (Table 1) [1-7] for specific reserves ranking. In addition, Kazakhstan's oil and natural gas reserves are very rich, country ranked 17 th place in oil production worldwide. According to the data released by the Kazakhstan Statistic Committee, at present, Kazakhstan's oil recoverable reserves are 40 x 108 t and natural gas recoverable reserves are
3 x 1012 m3. However, as a major energy producer, its consumption capacity is extremely limited. According to BP world energy statistics yearbook 2017, Kazakhstan consumed 19.2% of its oil production and 67.3% ofits natural gas production in 2016 [1-5]. There is no domestic demand for uranium resources, that is, more than half of the oil and gas resources and all uranium resources are used for export (see Table 2).
Table 1.- Global Ranking of Kazakhstan mineral reserves Source: Statistics Committee, USGS mineral commodity report in 2016, Kazgeology, Samruk-Kazyna
Kazakhstan's Major Mineral Reserves
Reserves, 000 tons
Mineral % of global World ranking
I nor ore Uranium Zinc Lead Silver
2,500,000 373 11.000 2,000 53
1.5% 8 1% 6.0% 2 3% 0.3%
11 4 6 6 6
Figure 1. Kazakhstan's Oil Production, million barrels (1991-2017) Source: Statistics Committee, Kazenergy, IHS Energy
According to (Table 2), since 1991, Kazakhstan more than tripled its oil output to 572 million barrels (78 million tons) per year in 2016, driven by Ten-giz and Karachaganak. Oil production was lower in 2015-2016 in response to lower oil prices, natural decline in some mature fields and decrease of drilling activity given maintenance works at some fields.
Starting from CNPC's successful bid for Aktobe oilfield development project in 1997, China's capital and technology began to enter Kazakhstan market. At present, China's three major oil companies and several private oil and gas enterprises have carried out project cooperation with Kazakhstan in oil and gas business, such as Petro-Kazakstan (PK) project, Aidan MUNAI (ADM) project, Kuatamlonmuani (KAM) project, etc. Now "One Belt, One Road" initiative is combining with previous successful 20 years energy cooperation between China and Kazakhstan, and is emerging as a model of mutual benefit and win-win strategy for the two countries.
At the founding meeting of the China Kazakhstan Entrepreneurs Committee (2013), President Xi Jinping pointed out that pragmatic cooperation between China and Kazakhstan was fruitful and created many "first rank" achievements [2-2]. China is Kazakhstan's largest trade partner and Kazakhstan is China's largest investment object in the CIS region. China Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline is China's first land-based transnational crude oil pipeline, and there are numerous successful examples of cooperation between the two countries. These cooperation achievements have not only brought tangible benefits to the Chinese and Kazakh people, but also provided unremitting impulse for the sustained development of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. In his speech, President Nazarbayev pointed out that Kazakhstan-China oil and gas cooperation, especially the Kazakhstan-China crude oil pipeline and Kazakhstan-China natural gas pipeline, are the concrete embodiment of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the achievements witnessed by the two heads of state [3].
At present, the total mileage of the railway trunk line in Kazakhstan is 15.100 km, with a density of 5.53 km/km2 (23-38 km/km2 in most CIS countries). Among them, more than 5000 kilometers (35% of the total length) are double track lines, and more than 4100 kilometers are electrified lines, accounting for 27% of the total length (60% in Azerbaijan, 45% in Russia, and 100% in Armenia and Georgia), consist of 6700 km of station line and special line. In terms of the distribution of railway network in the whole territory, the total length of railways in the Southern and Eastern regions exceeds 4000 kilometers, accounting for 27.5% of the total length of the country, 3900 kilometers in the Western region, accounting for 26.9% of the total length, and 6300 kilometers in the central and Northern regions, accounting for 43.5% of the total length [4].
In December 2011, the 2001 train opened in China and 3602 train opened in Kazakhstan passed through the junction of China-Kazakhstan railway, heading to the opposite station, which marks the opening of China-Kazakhstan Khorgos Atenkori railway port. This is the second international railway channel opened to Central Asia, West Asia and Europe in China after the new Eurasian Continental Bridge between Lianyun-gang, Alashankou, Almaty, Kazakhstan and Rotterdam, the Netherlands, has been put into operation for 20 years. The railway connecting with Kazakhstan railway in China this time is Jingyihuo (Jinghe Yining Horgos) railway. Jingyihuo starts from Jinghe station of Lanzhou Xinjiang Railway in the East and ends at Horgos station of China Kazakhstan border port in the west, with a total length of 292 km; the railway from Getken to Atenkori is in Kazakhstan, with a total length of293 km [4].
It can be seen that both Kazakhstan and China have made progress in terms of actual road construction and relevant agreements. In December 2011, Kazakhstan's "Getken-Horgos" railway was successfully connected. The railway transportation mileage between China and Central Asian countries was shortened by 550 kilometers, which is helpful to
improve Kazakhstan's transport capacity, promote the development of related industries, bring huge economic benefits to the regions along the railway, and promotes and expand Kazakhstan's economic ties with China and Southeast Asian countries. According to the prediction of relevant departments, the freight volume of the trunk line is planned to reach 25 million tons in 2020 [4].
Support of the road maintenance: this support is usually effective in maintaining traffic handling performance of the Almaty-Astana corridor section. This has helped to reduce the overall average travel time between Almaty and Astana (1220 km) from 30-40 hours to about 16 hours. To fulfill this plan, road maintenance equipment purchased through the project has generally performed well and is in normal use. Initially, there were problems due to the lack of local spare parts suppliers for some equipment. However, these problems are solved by increasing the stock of spare parts obtained from foreign suppliers. "One Belt, One Road" initiative, "Nurly Zhol" and other projects confirm that Kazakhstan is the key to trade and transport links between Eurasia and China. The OBOR and its transcendence are unique due to their location, vast land and energy reserves. It is not only the object of geopolitical interests of China, Russia and the West, but also the subject of geopolitical interests. The case of Kazakhstan shows that the formation and success of OBOR depends to a great extent on internal factors, rather than external factors.Bilateral trade volume between China and Kazakhstan has increased substantially since 2009, but it has declined significantly since 2013-2016, but rebounded to the bottom and increased rapidly the next year. At present, although China has become Kazakhstan's second largest trading partner, the two countries show strong asymmetry in trade products, trade mode, settlement currency and other aspects. Moreover, the import and export trade between China and Kazakhstan fell significantly in 2013-2016, and the trade ties between them are still not close enough, mainly as follows:
1) Kazakhstan maintains a continuous relationship with China According to the data of Kazakhstan Statistical Commission, it is found that from 1999 to 2017, Kazakhstan maintained a sustained trade surplus with China, which increased from 390 million US dollars in 1999 to 2.319 billion US dollars in 2009. In 2009, Russia Belarus Kazakhstan customs union was established and operated. Because the tariffs in the Union were higher than those before Kazakhstan joined the union, the competitiveness of Chinese goods in Kazakhstan declined, resulting in Kazakhstan's surplus to China in 2010 rising rapidly to 6.16 billion US dollars; in 2011, it reached the highest value, with a surplus of 11.269 billion US dollars; since 2012, China Kazakhstan trade surplus The volume showed a continuous downward trend, from US $8.98 billion in 2012 to US $400 million in 2015, slightly rebounded in 2016, with a surplus of US $550 million; in 2017, the surplus was US $1.09 billion, an increase of 97.6 (see Figure 1) [5].
From 2012 to 2016, the trade surplus decreased year by year, mainly due to the rapid decline of Kazakhstan's exports to China. In 2017, the surplus increased nearly doubled due to the recovery of bilateral trade between China and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan maintains a long-term surplus with China, which means that China maintains a deficit with Kazakhstan, that is, China's import from Kazakhstan is far greater than its export. It is estimated that from 1999 to 2017, China's import from Kazakhstan accounted for about 67.34% of the total trade between China and Kazakhstan, while China's export to Kazakhstan accounted for only 31.68% of the total trade between China and Kazakhstan in the same period [5]. It can be seen that China maintains a long-term commodity trade deficit with Kazakhstan, which shows that China has a strong import demand for Kazakhstan's products. From the perspective of dependence, China has a high dependence on Kazakhstan's products.
Figure 2. Total import and export volume between China and Kazakhstan (2009-2013), USD Source:Statistic Committee of China, URTL: http://www.npc.gov.cn
2) China's commodity dependence on Kazakhstan is higher than Kazakhstan's dependence on China. In 2017, the main products Kazakhstan exported to China were base metals and products, with an export volume of US $2.38 billion, an increase of 41.2%, and accounting for 41.3% of Kazakhstan's total exports to China. It is the first major category of goods Kazakhstan exports to China. The second largest export volume is mineral products. The export volume to China is US $2.08 billion, up 38.9% year on year, accounting for 35.9% of Kazakhstan's total export volume to China. In addition, exports of chemical products to China amounted to US $1.04 billion, an increase of 24.9%, accounting for 18.0% of Kazakhstan's total exports to China. In 2017, Kazakhstan imported mechanical and electrical products from China, with an import volume of US $2.08 billion, an increase of 30.7%, and accounting for 44.3% of Kazakhstan's total imports from China. Imports of base metals and their products reached US $650 million, an increase of 20.6%, accounting for 13.9% of Kazakhstan's total imports from China. In addition, plastic and rubber imports reached 320 million US dollars, an increase of 18.7%, accounting for 6.7% of Kazakhstan's total imports from China.
The three categories of products account for 64.9% of Kazakhstan's total imports from China [5]. China's competitors for the above commodities mainly come from the United States, Italy, Germany, etc.
From the perspective of trade products, China mainly imports primary raw materials such as energy resources from Kazakhstan, especially fuel mineral oil and base metal products, accounting for more than half of the total exports. China's exports to Kazakhstan are mostly concentrated in manufactured products such as mechanical and electrical products and mechanical equipment. Meanwhile, China has provided many light industrial products closely related to the life of Kazakh residents and to the Kazakh market. Obviously, based on their comparative advantages, China and Kazakhstan have formed a trade product pattern, in which China mainly imports energy and resource products from Kazakhstan, while Kazakhstan, with relatively backward manufacturing industry, imports machinery, electronics and light industrial products from China. From the perspective of import substitution, as resources and energy products belong to non renewable resources, the degree of substitution is far less than labor-intensive and capital intensive products; obviously China has a rigid demand for energy and resource products in Kazakhstan.
From the perspective of the added value of trade products, most of the commodities exported by China to Kazakhstan are labor-intensive mechanical and electrical products, textile products, which have low degree of differentiation and high degree of substitution. If Kazakhstan chooses to import similar products with comparative advantages from other countries, it will have a greater impact on China's economic interests. Based on the data at the port of Horgos, the author found that Chinese manufacturers can provide diversified choices of different quality and price for a commodity. However, in order to make more profits, the Central Asian merchants represented by Kazakhstan tend to choose the commodity with lower price, and import some relatively low-quality commodities from China through tourism, shopping and general trade. To some extent, it has damaged the image of Chinese goods, and it has also given the negative influence on people in Kazakhstan who are dissatisfied with China as a producer. China must reveal the possibilities of its market and guide Kazakhstan to properly understand the real situation in the trade between the two countries and objectively judge the image of Chinese goods.
From the perspective of import substitution, as resources and energy products belong to non renewable resources, the degree of substitution is far less than labor-intensive and capital intensive products, obviously China has a rigid demand for energy and resource products in Kazakhstan. On the whole, China's dependence on Kazakhstan is much higher than Kazakhstan's dependence on China. The U. S. dollar is still the main settlement currency, and the Chinese Yuan (RMB) settlement volume is small. At present, Kazakhstan's cross-border trade settlement currency is mainly U.S. dollar. Kazakhstan's national payment has a dollarization mentality, and the RMB settlement volume is very small. The main reasons are as follows: from the perspective of trade products between China and Kazakhstan, China has a rigid demand for Kazakhstan's energy and resource products, so China passively accepts
Kazakhstan's settlement in US dollars with more foreign exchange reserves. Due to the high degree of substitutability of Chinese exports to Kazakhstan, Chinese enterprises and Kazakh enterprises are in a passive position when choosing the settlement currency, and the citizens tend to use US dollar cash to settle foreign exchange, which results in most of the trade settlement between Chinese and Kazakh enterprises adopting US dollar. According to the Research Report on the pilot situation of cross-border monetary man guided currency settlement issued by the development research center of the State Council in 2011, the scale of RMB settlement of cross-border trade between China and Central Asia has increased, but the proportion is very small. Taking the settlement scale from 2009 to the end ofJune 2010 as an example, from the perspective of total amount, the proportion of USD settlement is as high as 95.2%, while that of RMB settlement is less than 0.01% [6].
The mode of trade is still dominated by border trade, and the processing trade accounts for a relatively small proportion. Based on the geographical advantages of Xinjiang, the trade volume between China and Kazakhstan is mainly concentrated there. In 2008, Xinjiang's foreign trade with Kazakhstan accounted for 74.09% of the total trade between China and Kazakhstan, compared with 72.92% in 2009 [6]. Thanks to the operation of Russia Belarus Kazakhstan customs union, the trade transfer effect makes the trade between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan account for 65.79% of the total trade between China and Kazakhstan, and then continues to decline from 49.73% in 2011 to 42.91% in 2013. In 2014, the index continued to rise from 58.72% to 79.9% in 2016, and in 2017, the index dropped to 45.6%. The foreign trade volume between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan accounts for more than 70% of the total trade volume between China and Kazakhstan in most years [6]. On the whole, Xinjiang is still the main bearing area of China Kazakhstan trade. However, from the perspective of the trade mode between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan, the border trade with the lowest cost and flexibility is
Xinjiang and its neighboring countries.
The basic reason why the border trade and tourism purchase can become the main trade mode between Xinjiang and its neighboring Central Asian countries is that: on the one hand, the manufacturing industry of the neighboring Central Asian countries lags behind and the import cost is urgently needed; China is unable to produce or meet its own domestic demand, and China's diversified products just fill this gap. On the other hand, low cost is also the important factor. The Central Asian governments, represented by Kazakhstan, have set preferential measures for border trade. At the same time, there are grey customs clearance methods such as "charter party tax" and "charter party tax". This kind of grey customs clearance has also become a method to reduce the cost of border trade in disguise, but it more reflects the need of surrounding Central Asian countries to improve their business environment. In the long run, with the gradual establishment of market mechanism in Central Asian countries, the improvement of government governance ability and the change of domestic interest groups, grey customs clearance will inevitably be replaced by normal customs clearance. In the future, with the economic development of the surrounding Central Asian countries, border trade will still occupy a dominant position, which is not only due to the flexible and low cost ofborder trade, but also closely related to the per capita income and industrial division of labor of the neighboring countries.
In 2016, China's investments into 49 countries along the OBOR initiative amounted to USD14.5 billion [7, 112-117]. Kazakhstan will play a key role in OBOR success, with transit traffic and trade turnover expected to grow in the medium to longer-term. As China's "One Belt, One Road" began to develop, the Chinese foreign trade has been increasing frequently. This has raised the frequency and coverage of China's foreign exchanges. However, there are great differences in cultural and economic trade patterns among countries. Therefore, it is impossible to comply with
the convention in the development of foreign trade and culture. It requires relevant talents to have strong abstract thinking skills and logical judgment ability. In the process of foreign exchanges and deepening cooperation, they can put forward some innovative communication strategies and methods, which objectively promote the improvement of China's foreign trade and cultural exchange level.
In the past few years, Kazakhstan has implemented a foreign policy aimed at improving relations with a number of new geopolitical actors, in addition to the common partners such as Russia, which the Central Asian countries used to rely heavily on. Taking advantage of its great potential in the oil and gas industry, Kazakhstan has surpassed all other Central Asian countries in terms of political and economic importance, and has turned its attention to China as an important and strong partner in economic, political and security cooperation.
In recent years, Kazakhstan has become an important player in international relations in Central Asia. International observers have on many occasions highlighted the country's progress. It is undeniable that compared with other countries in the region, Kazakhstan's development level is pretty higher. Purely from the perspective of macro-economy, Kazakhstan's economy is the largest economy in Central Asia, which has been showing a very high level of growth for many years and has recovered very quickly under the impact of the world economic crisis. From a broader perspective, Kazakhstan is the only country in the region listed as a country with a high level of human development, which highlights Kazakhstan's success.
But, therefore, no matter how impressive Kazakhstan's achievements may seem, there is still window for improvement: the country still needs help of its neighbors and is constantly and actively looking for opportunities to consolidate its growth through economic cooperation. This makes China-Kazakhstan relations not only of great significance to the overall situation of trade balance between the two countries, but also, in a broader sense, to the sustainability of
the "One Belt, One Road", "Nurly Zhol" and the overall stability of Central Asia. The political relations between China and Kazakhstan have been successful: since independence, the two countries have settled the old disputes on the common border and established close political ties. Chinese and Kazakh officials often meet to discuss bilateral issues. For Kazakhstan, "developing good neighborly and friendly relations with China is the top priority".
Today, both sides are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other regional groups committed to promoting political cooperation and security. This requires strong mutual support from the two countries on some of the most important foreign policy objectives: Kazakhstan supports Beijing's foreign policy, OBOR initiative, supports China's official positions in Taiwan and Tibet, and China supports Kazakhstan's accession to the WTO and many joint projects. Bilateral economic relations are also positive and have been strengthening for many years. The
main factor for the continuous improvement of trade relations is China's unparalleled willingness and ability to invest. The figures are impressive: in early 2011, for example, Beijing pledged US $1.7 billion in loans to Kazakhstan's state welfare fund, US $5 billion in loans to the local petrochemical industry, and about US $8 billion in purchases of Kazakh uranium [8-34]. China's increased influence in Astana is welcome as it provides opportunities for the country's economic diversification, especially within the perspectives of the "One Belt, One Road" project. For many years, Kazakhstan's trade relations with China have been limited to natural gas and oil exports, but at present, trade is gradually diversifying, which has a positive impact on the economic interconnection between the two countries, especially in the border areas. The improvement of bilateral relations between China and Kazakhstan highlights these developments and may help consolidate the achievements of the largest central Asian republic in the short term.
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