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14Перспективы проекта «Один пояс-Один путь» для российского экономического развития
Колганова Елена Викторовна
кандидат экономических наук, Российский университет дружбы народов, [email protected]
Бабий Александр Игоревич
магистр делового администрирования в области логистики, Российский университет дружбы народов
Относительно новая инициатива Китая - проект «Один пояс - Один путь» - в течение последних лет является предметом обсуждения и переговоров в странах Евразийского континента. До сих пор точно не известно, какие страны будут принимать участие в проекте, какие маршруты будут в результате построены. В настоящее время действуют два маршрута, проходящие в том числе по территории России. По этой причине вопрос Российских перспектив участия в проекте является актуальным. В статье представлен анализ факторов Российской экономической среды, а также стратегии развития российской железнодорожной инфраструктуры, которые оказывают влияние на проект. Доказано, что Проект является одним из основных приоритетов для российского экономического развития. Кроме того, определено, что Россия в свою очередь может внести свой вклад в увеличение эффективности работы проекта. Ключевые слова: Проект «Один пояс - Один путь», Российские железные дороги, Транссибирская магистраль, Российское экономическое развитие
More than five years have already passed since Chinese president Xi Jinping mentioned the idea of One Belt - One Road project during a visit to Indonesia in 2013. At the time it was hard to identify what was behind the concept and what it would ultimately amount to, given that official explanations and concrete projects remained scarce until early 2015. Now, more than three years on, what has been given many names - from the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, to One Belt - One Road to the Belt and Road Initiative (and what will be hereinafter refer to as OBOR) - has finally begun to take shape. Projects have been identified, institutions created and money spent. And yet, OBOR still remains vague and unclear in many respects. Explaining what exactly it continues to be a difficult task for both Chinese and foreign researchers, and this is likely to persist into the future.
The main goal of the project is to strengthen the country's position abroad and change the geo-economic landscape of Eurasia. But the projects also carry crucial importance in Chinese internal politics, and have become inextricably linked to the success and image of the country's leader, Xi Jinping.
The OBOR project is divided into: the "Silk Road economic belt" and the "Maritime Silk Road" - the two legs of the "One Belt, One Road" - which would connect China and Europe via improved infrastructure and closer economic cooperation with its neighbors in Central and Southeast Asia.
To be sure, infrastructure development is at the core of the Chinese project. Since Xi Jinping ascended to the presidency, the emphasis of official statements made towards a foreign audience has been on "interconnectivity" and building cross-border infrastructure projects.
The action plan launched in March 2015 - highlighted four key spheres of infrastructure: transport (roads, railways, ports, airports...), energy (pipelines, refineries...), telecommunications, and special industrial zones.
With transport infrastructure development, China needs to strengthen cross-regional infrastructure and communications networks (ports, roads and railways) that might in due course facilitate exchanges among the region and, most significantly, bring Chinese product to European markets over land, an alternate route that is quicker than by ocean. There is already an instantaneous link for rail freight, connecting China with European countries - a mean journey lasts sixteen days, but the ocean route from China's provinces is much longer. An increasing variety of construction or improvement comes for the rail network that connects western China with Russia and Central Asia.
The infrastructure development is the clearest points, other official talks on OBOR still imprecise in general. No new or more careful action plan has been discharged since the primary revealed on the topic in March 2015, and Chinese officials and researchers are mostly presenting the project in broad terms only. Even after 4 years after its launch, the basics of OBOR are unclear: the exact geographic location of the routes/hubs, the list of projects involved, and the list of countries involved are not specified in official statements on the topic.
Despite media reports that existing information is unclear and foggy, on the basis of current information it is possible to draw conclusions on the following points: What roads are included in the OBOR, goals supposed to be achieved through this project, what countries are involved and what resources are involved in this project.
The five major goals of the Belt and Road Initiative are: policy co-ordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds.
There are more than 70 countries from Europe to Asia, Middle - East countries and Russia interested to be a part of OBOR project. One common confusion is which countries are exactly included in the Initiative as the Chinese government has never announced any official list. However, according to the information in a Chinese report, released by the China International Trade Institute in August 2015, 65 countries are identified (table 1) along the Belt and Road that will be participating in the Initiative. Together, the countries along the Belt
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and Road will create an "economic cooperation area" that stretches from the Western Pacific to the Baltic Sea. These 65 countries jointly account for 62.3% of the world's population, 30.0% of GDP and 24.0% of household consumption, today.
Source: Industrial Cooperation between Countries along the Belt and Road, China International Trade Institute. The countries are grouped basing on World Bank's classification by region.
OBOR project implies the connection of Europe and Asia through three main corridors: Northern corridor, The Central corridor, and The Southern corridor.
The existing Northern corridor goes through Trans-Siberian railway from Mongolian border to Eastern European. The Central one is planned to go further south and includes only a shortcut of Trans-Siberian railway. The Southern corridor is under negotiation with supposed Middle-Eastern member countries and goes around Russia.
The current view of the OBOR Project some reasons behind. Firstly, Russian -Chinese relationships is stable enough. Moreover, Russia has developed railway system with 4 gates from China - two direct gates and two gates through Kazakhstan and Mongolia - what is very important. However, the Middle Eastern corridor is a bit faster way to Europe, than Northern, but China has to invest much more to the infrastructure of it in the on-the-way countries.
Secondly, no doubt, nowadays, the Middle Eastern corridor is much more dangerous and unstable according to recent and regular political problems and terrorism at that area. The Northern corridor is much safer in this case for China. The Southern corridor is still on the stage of negotiations; however, it is already possible to say that this path would be connected with the Middle Eastern corridor what is still unsafety now for the bunch of reasons mentioned above.
For the aim of perspectives' analysis of OBOR project for Russian economy the external factors of Russian economic environment were assessed in relation to the project.
The analysis shown that the environmental factors that affect the project in Russia build not very serious barriers for OBOR. For example, the Legislation on environmental protection is an important factor because in many places the path will cause a global construction and environmental change could negatively affect the country. However, with using Chinese technology that dramatically reduces
Table 1
Countries supposed to involved in the OBOR project
Region Country
East Asia China, Mongolia
Southeast Asia Brunei, Cambodia,Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia. Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore. Thailand, Timor-Leste, Vietnam
Central Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgvzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
South Asia Afghani s Ian, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India. Maldives, Nepal. Pakistan, Sri Lanka
Middle East and Northern Africa Bahrain, Egypt. Iran, Iraq. Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Syria, United Arab I¡mirâtes, Yemen
Europe Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, lîelarus, ïîosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia. Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine
pollution, the influence of this factor will be reduced.
The level of corruption and bureaucracy in Russia and China still allows many officials and companies to earn money dishonestly by stealing from the governmental projects. This factor is serious but it is taken into consideration Chinese and Russian sides of the project.
The level of income in Russia is low enough. This is the factor that can be positively influenced by the project as OBOR will inevitably open new working places.
Due to the lack of local experts and technology of high-speed railways in the country, Russia needs to use the technology offered by China and allow China to provide the maintenance of the project in the long term. On one hand, there will be the inflow of the Chinese technology to Russia, on the other hand, it is not obligatory that Chinese partners are eager to share this technology with Russian specialists.
The mutual interest in the OBOR development from Russian and Chinese side can be illustrated by the growing amount of transit cargo from China to Europe through Russia. In 2016 it was 756.234 thousand tons and in 2017 already 1203.715 thousand tons.
Railway complex is of particular strategic importance for Russia. This is the link of a single economic system; it provides the timely supply of essential goods to the most remote corners of the country and is the most affordable transport for millions of citizens. That is why Russia is interested in the project development as it can help improve the railway infrastructure all over the country.
On the Russian side the project is supported by the state and the main railway company involved.
The Russian railway industry mainly consists of Russian Railways 100% state
corporation (RZD) and some private companies, which have some private territory and rail lines, as tool roads. These companies closely work with Russian Railways company. In general, it is possible to say that Railway complex in Russia is a monopoly with small percent of private companies, which work with RZD.
The strategic goals of the Russian Railways company:
• transport business expansion;
• production and economic efficiency increase;
• improving quality and safety of transportation;
• deep integration into the Euro-Asian transport system;
• financial stability and efficiency increase.
RZD has significantly improved the quality of service on the Trans-Siberian railway that is a part of OBOR project in recent years by simplifying procedures for clearing goods through customs and implementing a range of additional measures to ease the border crossing process. A simplified system for declaring goods in containers has reduced their waiting time at borders from up to 5 days to just a few hours, while the new IT systems provide comprehensive information and track the movements of wagons and containers in real time.
The new fast container trains will allow freight to be moved right across Russia, from the Pacific to the western borders, in 7 to 11 days, an average of more than 1,000 km per day. Technology not only ensures a quicker journey, but also means that consignments can be delivered regularly and on time.
It is planned to create up to 40 Terminal and Logistic Centers (TLCs) in Russia's major transport hubs by 2018. The first will be established in Moscow, the Moscow Region, Leningrad Region, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny
Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Vladivostok and other major cities. Each TLC will be a major technological complex for processing, storage and warehousing and customs clearance of cargo and containers and will also provide a full range of additional value-added services.
In 2017 Russian government in cooperation with Russian railways were planning to invest 57 billion RUB in order to increase a volume of freight traffic by 10%. In 2018 the amount of investments is planned to be increased further. In total, they are going to invest 567 billion RUB till 2020 for the development and extension of station trucks. The construction of the parallel lines, modernization and reconstruction of rails and turnouts.
So the conditions of Russian Railways' strategic development are very beneficial for the OBOR project.
The Chinese OBOR project initiative is very important for Russia, China and countries on the Eurasian continent. The most important reasons why it is so important are:
■ Globalization via connection whole continent from China to London by several corridors (Norther, Middle, Southern);
■ Opportunity to use current corridors in order to increase trade between countries;
■ The OBOR project has enough fund for investing into the infrastructure of countries, which are on the way;
■ The increase of technologies by implementing technologies from China is expected.
Perspectives of One Belt-One Road project for Russian economic development
Kolganova E.V., Babiy A.I.
RUDN University
The relatively new Chinese initiative - OBOR project - is a topic of discussions and negotiations between countries of the Eurasian continent. It is still unclear what countries will be included and what routs will be constructed. At the current time two routes that involve Russia exist. That is why the question of Russian perspectives in the project are actual. The article consists of the analysis of the factors of Russian economic environment and strategy of the railway infrastructure development that influence the project. It is proved that the OBOR project is of major priority for Russian economic development. Moreover it is shown that Russia can bring a lot for the project effectiveness.
Key Words: OBOR project, Russian railways, Tran-Siberian railway, Russian economic development
References
1. China's foreign policy: Prioritising the neighbourhood, Bondaz A., in: Explaining China's Foreign Policy Reset, European Council on Foreign Relations (EcFr), 14 April 2015
2. Chinas Vision einer globalen Seidenstrafle,
Godehardt, N., Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), January 2016, p. 35.
3. Strategy of RZD, published on the official web-
site www.rzd.ru
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