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DOI: 10.24234/wisdom. v16i3.389 Vladimir KARAPETYAN
ARGUMENTS OF CAUSE-AND-EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS IN PERSON'S EXPECTATIONS WITH DIVERGENT THOUGHT
Abstract
The goal of the research is to reveal the semantic divisions of cause-and-effect, receiving arguments, processing and presenting information through a person's implicit judgments.
The methodological apparatus of the research has been chosen in the result of the combination of danger, emotion, provability connected with the subjective arguments of cause-and-effect relations. Through Ch. Osgood's method of semantic differential, the Ishikawa diagram analytical tool and PARLA (Problem-Action-Result-Learned-Applied) method the effects of the word; consequently, the action grade, force-activity factors were revealed.
The results of the research: Through the theoretical-experimental study of cause-and-effect relationships dependent, independent variables are proved with the polar qualities internalized by the person: "Danger" - "Security", "Emotional stability -Emotional instability", "Proof-Denial". From the viewpoint of Ch. Osgood's semantic differential the importance of word force, activity and evaluation is proved through syllabic formulas ("All A-s are B" or "are not B", "If A, then B").
The analyzes of "cause-and-effect-cause", in the framework of PARLA method, aimed at the application of one's actions, enable the transformation of person's cognitive activity into a reflexive ability with the consciousness of the effect emphasized by divergent thinking, a personal expectation of post-work consciousness, and K. Ishikawa's diagram, carried out with five phases, makes the multidimensional thinking more controlled.
Keywords: cause-and-effect, divergent thinking, expectations.
Introduction and Literature Review
The study of causal relationships has been considered relevant at all times and still continues to be relevant today (Russell, 2001; Shny-reva, 2014). This problem is so capacious, complex, deep and controversial that all the sciences dealing with it often get lost in the crossroads of development, the discovery of new facts and patterns.
The Main Determinants of Cause-and-Effect
The simplest notions of cause-and-effect relationships are mainly constructed in terms of the time factor (previous-next) as a link between the past and expected outcome, a summarized conclusion, etc. (From a molecule to a person, ed. by N. P. Naumov, 1973). The world creation of an event in several dimensions (time, place, event
development or possible change, space, etc.) as a dynamic structure often leads to the ideas of "Eternal Rotation" or "Eternal Return" while acknowledging that any event is simultaneously a cause and an effect with possible transitions.
In the process of identifying cause-and-effect links, it is probably necessary to discover the main determinants (attributes, prototypes of links, etc.) that play a significant role in the process of identifying and explaining links. Of course, everything starts with the reason for the event, which can appear: (a) in terms of time, (b) as an event, occasion, reality, involving various aspects of objectivity and subjectivity; (c) in the form of an action or activity, as a combination of actions, which is a priority action; d) physical environment, space, place, main reason that affect the general life or existence, f) as socio-cultural-national values, customs, which ensure further developments or in some issues lead to regressive tendencies; g) as competition, survival, ensuring national security, etc. However, it was not considered in the process of information and communication as a necessary prerequisite and condition for human communication, the result of the expectation of a person's reasoning and argumentation, in the expectations of a divergent thinking person, which indicates that the field of subjective cause-and-effect factors needs to be replenished because the study of objective factors can lead to arguments based on linear determinism, as long as subjective factors are not fully included in the arguments.
Targeted Comments of the Cause-and-Effect Link
In the history of philosophy, multifunctional observations of causes have in practice begun on the basis of real human dialogues, everyday con-
versations and debates. Various analyzes of the causes have been referred to by the greatest thinkers of the ancient world, Aristotle and Plato, respectively defining several dozen notions and comments on the cause. It is known that Aristotle in his work "Metaphysics" spoke about several main reasons or beginnings, which refer to 1) the material cause (substratum), 2) the role and significance of the object, 3) the discovery of the essence, and 4) the existence of the given object in general (Aristotle. Books 1-14). Bertrand Russell in his "Histories of Western Philosophies" writes: "According to Aristotle, there are four kinds of reason, which are appropriately called material, formal, moving and purposeful reason. In relation to modern terminology, the word "cause" is limited by the moving cause" (Russell, 2001, p. 253). These ideas later led to many comments. From the above, the objective-subjective aspects of the cause are somewhat different, because in one case the cause is considered to be an object or object existing independently of human consciousness, and in the other case, the purposeful cause.
From the point of view of the new philosophy, the study of causes is mainly deepened in such a way that the main cause, the mechanisms of its explanation, are directly represented as much as possible, sometimes ignoring the formation of the final cause, as in this case it already assumes the role of consequence. From the point of view of general analysis, more emphasis is placed on the importance of the origin of the cause and the main features, focusing exclusively on the principle of causality of events. Leaving aside the centuries-old philosophical controversy, let us just mention that David Hume (and not only him) was one of those philosophers who were able to experiment so much with the question of the source of human knowledge, without,
of course, ignoring the role of imagination in the process of processing the information gained during human experience.
Causality, as a central issue in David Hume's philosophy, leads to a scientific explanation of cause and effect. To explain the means to recognize the causes and the existence of things (Hume, 1998). As the experimental sciences are more advanced in the modern age, which among other methods are practically based on the processes of obtaining, processing and presenting empirical data, discovering possible connections, so we cannot ignore the possible trends in the development of experimental sciences in the process of discovering causal connections.
A Series of Cause-Effect Questions
The discovery of cause-and-effect links is aimed not only at gaining an idea of the current state of the researcher's intellectual capacity, but also at expanding the scope of the process of discovering new connections. There is no field of human knowledge that is not interested in "ca-use-and-effect" relations, the processes of causal formation, their mutual relations, possible transformations. However, the "cause-and-effect" relationship is not always detectable only in terms of features visible to the person, as the "hidden-cause" relationship modelling algorithm does not always explicitly reveal the "hidden" causes of the cause, the preconditions and conditions of the phenomenon. The need to discover the causes stems from a person's real, material or spiritual needs that are being met at a given moment or situation. It can be assured that the historical period dictates the actual or urgent solution to the problem. It is another question to what extent the period predicts the future in its rapid develop-
ment. Therefore, as the first problem, let's formulate the reason for the formation or nomination of the given phenomenon. A very natural and possible problem related to the realization of the importance of time. Who in the Republic of Armenia could have realized in advance the enormous force of the awakening of the national consciousness as a reason that could lead to the establishment of a national liberation movement in time? Probably, the argument of "cause-and-effect" connection will make sense if it is considered not only sequentially, but also in a chain as a process of revealing questions. 1) How is the cause formed, at the same time considering the factors, conditions, time, place, etc., 2) How is the cause evaluated (objective and subjective perceptions)? How is the semantic differential of the cause separated at the level of the person? 3) What are the psychological expectations of the cause? (The impact on the person - positive or negative). It is mentioned about the latter that. In psychology, the method of the semantic differential is used in its various areas: personality psychology, ethnic psychology, conflictology, educational psychology and others.
Very often, cause-and-effect analyzes are built on other platforms for receiving, storing, and transmitting information, based on the premise that often "meaning disappears in meaning, completeness - in whole, and activity is in action, the action is in operations, the reason is in automation. A person merges with a thing and, like a subject, disappears into it" (Terebilov, 1987, p. 67).
The assessment of cause, in our view, is made according to the personal capacity of the cause, which can be observed only in the cognitive perception of the person (Lindsey & Norman, 1974), depending on the extent to which the cause can affect the person or his relative. On
mental or physical security. The number one ability is risk assessment and security.
Research Methodology
The methodological apparatus for understanding and accepting the objective-subjective aspects of cause-and-effect relationships, as a set of methodological tricks, is constructed in terms of revealing the personal meaning of the cause-and-effect relationships and the reflexive abilities of a man. The study of the cause-and-effect relations, the methodology of the relevance of history and the development of scientific thought of the given period is mostly built on the principle of linear determinism (for example, "the more active, the more resentful") (Andreev & Andreeva, 2015, p. 12), with the possibilities of one-dimensional thinking (Marcuse, 2003), which, of course, not based on progressive developments, leads to a contradiction of development and self-development. "Another fundamental contradiction in the development of civilization is the continuously growing gap between the scientific knowledge, scientific and technological progress, the level of development of spiritual, moral, intellectual and creative personality traits" (Andreev & Andreeva, 2015, p. 11). The structural models of J. Guilford's (1965) intellect (pp. 434437) and the proposed models of Torrance creativity (Torrance, 1984; Torrance, 1969) have observed multidimensional thinking functional manifestations, as incorporating divergent thinking into a new level of intellect (J. Gilford) can lead to a purposeful study of cause-and-effect relationships, enabling a transition from an empirical level of study to a holistic approach to action-oriented creativity. By means of the study of cause-and-effect relations, by the formulas of syllogistic concerns, the demonstrative qualities
of word formulations within the framework of logic are ensured. However, using the method of Ch. Osgood's semantic differential, the possible relations of cause-and-effect, according to the word's strength, activity and evaluation results were considered separately with polar features. The PARLA method is used to identify the specific actions that lead to the causal phenomenon, and the experience gained as a result of which, in our opinion, is necessary for the development and teaching of modern educational programs. We believe that the use of this method in practice increases the role of linear determinism in the study of cause-and-effect relationships, while the determinism used in Ishikawa diagram (Ishika-wa, 1988, Ishikawa, 1985) reveals the cause of occurrence in 5 main categories (Man, Machines, Materials, Methods, Measurements).
"5M" 1. Man (reasons related to a man), 2. Machines (reasons related to facilities). 3. Materials (reasons related to materials), 4. Methods (reasons related to method or technology), 5. Measurements (reasons related to the methods of measurement).
The essence of the analytical tool of the diagram is that it first collects or identifies all the factors and conditions, both the most possible and the extremely unlikely and the insignificant factors in the given conditions, grouping them with various features. Changes in conditions may reduce or increase the significance of any factor or factors in the identification of cause-and-effect relationships. Developments of actions aimed at this goal, and their effects are carried out by the PARLA method.
Results of Research
The objectivity of the causality of events does not mean ignoring or minimizing the cogni-
tive human being, because if not a human, then who will perceive the phenomenon, event or case, to understand the various features, to evaluate everything that no longer exists, but exists as far as consciously? Meaning that it is subject to analysis, combination, concretization, etc. We think that psychological analysis of cause-and-effect relations is a matter of elaboration of a special methodology, because: 1) the objective phenomenon in its description mechanism of explanation is conditioned by subjective factors, what is the danger or consequence of the given cause or consequence, first of all for the given person, 2) cause and effect as influences cause emotional instability or emotional tension; 3) the external world at the level of perception becomes a unique series of internal, mental images that motivate thinking, proving or denying.
The object studied within the framework of professional competencies, in addition to its subject representation indicators, has a hidden set of features derived from the framework of previous experience, which is purely professional, go beyond the intellectual field of an ordinary, non-knowledgeable person or his cognitive abilities.
In this sense, the field of knowledge is not an exception, and it is characterized by the existence of processes of revealing or establishing causal connections, more specifically, revelations of divergent thinking, because the type of thinking determines the possible manifestations of alternative thinking aimed at clarifying causal connections. This proves the results of the simul-
taneous effect of the consolidation of this or that factor (or factors). The correlations of different features only show certain differences or relationships in the process of data processing and interpretation, so to speak, within the "Significance Zone". The study of causal relations at the level of the genesis of the phenomenon cannot bypass the methodological questions of the theory of cognitive activity (as a principle, approach, regularity, etc.). Therefore, the question of genesis (beginning) should be asked from the moment when the phenomenon is considered in a co-psychological sense depending on mental activity, as an activity or communication, position, etc. We think that in this context, the issue of causal relations should be discussed in terms of the development of the current stage of divergent thinking, the study of a person's expectations, defining the idea of the orienting basis of activity (Karapetyan, 2014), which, of course, is not enough to study the further path of the developing phenomenon in terms of causal connections. "And causation is especially the relationship that is most closely related to practice, to human activity" (Mill, 1914, p. 19).
It is obvious that factor or correlation relationships do not yet indicate the existence of causal relationships, but they can affect the effects of the formation of phenomena, so they cannot be ignored to imagine the transitions in the formation of the causal chain. The corresponding diagram is below.
Chart. Causal Relationships by Dependency Components.
In terms of systematic analysis, phenomena are usually explained in terms of a number of theoretical observations, experimental analyzes, which relate to a paradigm consistent with the maturity of the theory of the phenomenon, the origin, conditions, driving forces, factors of the phenomenon. The latter, with its concept apparatus and study tools, provides the element of cause-and-effect (see the scheme mentioned above) the development trends of the given science.
The chain of causes can also work in terms of the Domino effect when the decline of one cause leads to the collapse of other causes. The image of the semantic perceptions of the cause is loaded on the content side of the influence, which under certain conditions emphasizes the existence of the component of the word strength or activity, according to Ch. Osgood's semantic differential. In order to reveal the semantic perceptions of the concepts of "Cause" and "Effect" (also as processes) in a person's expectations, an
empirical study was conducted according to Ch. Osgood's (2012) method, where the cause and the effect semantically were considered as a word according to "force", "activity" and "evaluation" factors (pp. 172-201). The minimum number of subjects was determined by their lower threshold, as the rest of the subjects' responses were almost repeated, and no significant differences were recorded in the semantic differential. As a result of the empirical study, it turned out that the power of reason (as a word) is mostly fixed in the semantic differential of cause. Below the nominated table of researchers is presented with polar features. First, the positive or negative feature (right or left part) is determined, then subjective assessments are given: "to study", "to observe", "to substantiate", "to discover", "to analyze", "to develop", "to formulate", "describe", "to find out", "generalize", "to combine", "to propose", "to conclude", "to concretize", "to prove", "to follow", "to compare", "to comment", "to criticize", "to discuss", "to coordi-
nate", "to discover", "to find", "to search", "to explore" verbs, which can refer both to the cause and to the effect from the point of view of syllogistic reasoning.
We read the verb (for example, the last one: "to find") and then similar expressions are formulated in the syllogistic view. "If A, then B can be found", "All A-s refer to B" etc. (Tommy, 1964, p. 10) or judgments can be divided according to modality. Possible judgment can be expressed by the following formula: "It is possible that S is P" or "It is possible that S is not P" (Brutian, 1976, p. 131). From the point of view
of divergent thinking, a person can consider the causal relationship with syllogistic reasoning (it is possible that the study of S is the concretiza-tion of P). From the point of view of implicit reasoning, "Studying" (as a process) is the cause and concretization is the effect. Then we move on to the 12 properties (Ch. Osgood). We decide the right or the left part (that is, is it good or bad?) and evaluate. We pass the other lines in the same way. The average results of the semantic analysis of the verb "to explore" (action) are obtained during experimental work with 90 researchers.
Table 1.
Cause and Effect Semantic Differential Average Data by Results of 90 Surveys
To study: according to polar characteristics
+3 +2 +1 0 -1 -2 -3
e1 good + e1 bad
e2 heavy + e2 light
e3 fast + e3 slow
e4 nice + e4 ugly
e5 active + e5 passive
e6 big + e6 small
e7 hot + e7 cold
e8 clean + e8 dirty
e9 strong + e9 weak
e10 tender + e10 cruel
e11 furious + e11 quiet
e12 thick + e12 thin
Evaluation of the cause according to the features as mentioned above
The word's strength, grade and activity, ac- ing accepted way (strength of the reason, activity cording to Osgood, are calculated in the follow- and rating)
_ el+e4+e8+el0 _ e2+e6+e9+el2 e3+e5+e7+ell
Egr. " ; Estrength " ; Eact.= " ;
4 4 4
Egr. = 1.25; Estrength=2; Eact. =1.
Examining the semantic differential of the cause within the professional activity of lawyers, pedagogues and doctors, it was found that the power (influence) of the word is high. Therefore, it is necessary to move on to implicit reasoning in order to find out the manifestations of connections in syllogistic reasoning. The table below shows the "to study", "to observe", "to substanti-
In the semantic domain, the activity of the cause prevails among chess teachers and doctors, and the evaluation of the cause prevails among lawyers and pedagogues. The relation to the realization of the cause and further application in practical life is a subject of further studies as the continuously evolving causes can lose their orig-
ate", "to discover", "to analyze", "to develop", "to formulate", "to describe", "to find out", "to generalize", "to compare", "to nominate", "to conclude", "to concretize", "to prove", "to follow", "to compare", "to comment", "to criticize", "to discuss", "to coordinate", "to discover", "to find", "to search", "to explore" verbs as common factors in implicit reasoning.
Table 2.
inal power overtime in a gradually decreasing way if they, in the person's expectations, do not protect their power or the extent of danger realization.
The study of cause-and-effect relationships in the syllogistic dimension of cause-and-effect shows that the coincidence of factor indices of
Conclusion format
Investigation of cause-and-effect relationships in syllogistic focus according to polar characteristics
General factors Word factors General factors Word factors
Implicit judgment (If A, then B) Act.(ei) Power Evalution (e3) Implicit judgment (If A, then B) Ac Per (e) Evaluation (e 3)
To study 1 2.25 1 To concretize 1 1 1.25
To observe 1.75 2.75 1 To follow 1.25 2 1
To substantiate 0.25 2.25 1.25 To compare 2 2 1.5
To discover 1.5 2.75 1.5 To prove 1 1,75 2,25
To analyze 0 2.5 1.5 To criticize 2.25 1.25 0.5
To develop 0.25 2.25 1.25 To discuss 1.25 2.25 1.25
To formulate 0 2.25 1.25 To coordinate 2 1 1.25
To describe 0.75 1.25 2 To discover 1 2 1.25
To generalize 1.75 2.5 1.25 To find 1 2 1.25
To find out 0.5 1.5 1.25 To search 1.25 2.25 1.25
To use 0 1,25 1,25 To explore 1.75 3 1.75
To combine 1 1 0 To concretize 1 1 1,25
To nominate 0 1 1 To conclude 0.25 3 1
To argue 2.25 3 1.5 To comment 2 3 1.25
Tojudge 1 1 1.25 To conclude 1.75 1 2.75
To arrange 1.75 1.5 1.75 To group 0.75 1 1.5
Evaluation of the cause according to the above-mentioned features
different verbs (actions) leads to a reduction of the semantic distance of words. For example, the evaluation factors of the verbs "to find" and "to search" are equal to each other (1.25), and the distance is D2=(1.25-1)2+(2.25-2)2(1.25-1.25)-2=0.0625+0.0625=0.125.
This can be compared to another pair (for example, the "back-compare" semantic evaluation (0.625), which will more accurately convey the pragmatic observations of causation by the same person.
Time axis
1 Axis of causes or their possible
Perception of a cause and a reason for the cause in verbalized arguments. Not all the components of the verbal formulation of the cause are realized at the same time, because the given cause is due to another cause, and the person is not able to restore all the possible consequences arising from the given cause. The plot of the cause is a chain of questions consisting of "whys" with hidden and deep features, which appear in the educational texts (Evstigneeva, 1983, p. 191). The verbalization of the reason is carried out in terms of further questions. 1) What is it about? 2) What are the properties of the object or objects? 3) What are the features of the properties? 4) What is the degree of danger? 5) How can the consequences be predicted if there is a
danger? (Koroleva, 2010, pp. 20-23) and etc.
The "cause-effect-cause" multifunctional transitions are rather interesting in terms of argumentation, because arguments, besides being logical, internally summarize a person's conscious aspirations, attitudes, emotional qualities, and a specific type of thinking. The variety of causes can be considered through the internal characteristics of argument if it is conveyed through the language of actions or means of expression. Here are some examples of arguments based on typical situations. Considering the ca-use-and-effect relationship as an "impact-response", we can project the dialogue completely in that field (Figure 1).
1. Report of a speech or information (signal) To the dialogue participant 2. Accepting the answer continuation of the new process -► 1. Acceptance of material or information of from the communicator 2. Reaction or answer formulation
<-
Figure 1: Dialogue as a Process of Continuous Discovery of Cause-and-Effect Relationships.
The reason for the object or event is mostly hidden; it cannot always appear in the subject plan when talking about it. That is why we use the form of action (not only objective but also perceptual, verbal and mental) (Talyzina, 1975, pp. 58-59). The presentation and discussion of the raw material at the verbal level can be considered as the cause of the given communication process or phenomenon. The awareness of the
cause or effect by a person is formally a specific action, and the perception and, consequently, the orientation of the action depend on the person's expectations. The result is that the observation of cause and effect depends on cognitive, emotional or behavioural characteristics of a person, by which the expectant potential of the person is anchored. To illustrate it, we have prepared the diagram below.
Causes. Looking for a priority Possible conse-
Affecting a person depending on the per- quences of this
actions as influences son's expectations cause
Figure 2. The Dependence of Cause and Effect Relationship with the Structural Components of Psychic.
Examining the root causes or arguments of the cause from the point of view of the semantic differential, it turns out that within the application of the PARLA (Problem-Action-Result-Learned-Applied) method, that deduction, as a capacity for logical reasoning, in parallel with the analysis of educational and causal relationships, not only separates through the Ishakaw diagram but also reveals the significant and insignificant effects of many factors on the processes of understanding and interpreting phenomena.
Discussion: The effect of various causal factors can be represented by 3 main axes in the form of vectors. 1) "Danger-Security" which, regardless of the essence of the cause, is assessed not only in terms of physical danger but also in terms of a person's defence mechanisms. Through 9 psychological mechanisms, the traumatic negative feelings of the cause (expulsion, rationalization, denial, sublimation, etc.) become tolerable at the level of the unconscious, and at the level of consciousness, the acceptance or rejection of causal connections is possible on the basis of objective arguments. 2) The vector "Emotion-
al instability - Emotional stability" fully corresponds to one of the two dimensions of Azenk developed for a person and that is emotionality (Eysenk & Wilson, 2000, p. 7). The degree of danger, regardless of its manifestations, causes emotions conditioned by the influence of the cause, such as stress, depression, sadness, sad joy, delight, disgust, etc. 3) "Evidence-Denial", in the case of which human cognitive abilities, cognitive dissonance or consonance manifestations are activated, disclosures, arguments in the process of obtaining (regardless of the source) information, processing, and, if necessary, communication.
However, in this context, priority is given to the identification of the personality type, in the process of recognizing and explaining the cause of events. Visual type individuals are more likely to make causal connections visible, to film, to picture, to actually watch, to look at the situation. The arguments are mostly seen in their diagrams and mind maps ("He sees what he wants to see"). Audio-type individuals seek cause-and-effect links in the statements of verbal informants in the
print media, in articles, in inquiries, and even in the arguments of witnesses (Karapetyan, 2004, pp. 61-62). Cognitive individuals find evidence to find out, to search, and to persuade, although visual and audible individuals use the same logical methods in terms of cause-and-effect but with different means. However, the cause of the phenomenon conditioned by the personality type in terms of semantic differential leads to the manifestation of cognitive dissonance or consonance (Karapetyan & Gevorgyan, 2017, pp. 21-27).
Therefore, from the point of view of observing the "Impact-Response-Development-Self-Development" system, it is not yet possible to get a complete picture of all manifestations of cause-and-effect links, because the essential part, the subjective side of the causal phenomenon, is obviously omitted, which must be considered with the objective side and compared with the results of self-orienting activities.
The results of the PARLA method and Ishi-kav diagram of professional lawyers, doctors, pedagogues and first-class chess players of basic schools of the Armenian State Pedagogical University and various faculties of other universities, it turned out that the search activity aimed at revealing the cause-and-effect links is aimed at the semantic division of the word according to the evaluation of the word, force and activity.
Conclusions: Analysis of cause-and-effect argumentation shows that objective characteristics are predominant in the study of phenomena, which appear in the deductive judgments of the elementary school students too (Yritsyan, 1975), while the characteristics of the subjective side do not fully reflect the danger of cause or effect, its emotional impact on the subjective perceptions of the acting person. The semantic divisions of actions demonstrating by cause-and-effect expressing verbs (Ch. Osgood) show the dominan-
ce of one of the three factors of the semantic word (assessment, force and activity) in the subjective arguments of a person's defensive-conscious behaviour. Depending on the professional orientation, chess players and lawyers in cause-and-effect relationships are more inclined to pay attention to the power of the word (action) as an expression of the extent of the impact.
Experimental studies of word semantic fractions show the possibility of overlapping semantic (action) overriding factors of different words, which make the direction of interpreting causal relationships more probable, based on the analytical toolkit of Ishikawa (Ishikawa, 1985) diagram, as it provides a transition to content analysis of the PARLA method by exclusion, gradually excluding the unlikely, insignificant cases that may affect the cause or effect during the discussion. In the expectations of a person with divergent thinking, it is possible to intensify the observations of unlikely but alternative factors, which will explain the manifestations of the cause or effect of the event.
The semantic distances of words (actions), as the sum of the squares of the differences of the same factors, show the possible evaluations of the cause-and-effect relations in the processes of receiving, processing and evaluating information.
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