39ANALYSIS OF TOURIST TURNOVER IN A RURAL TOURISM DESTINATION - CASE STUDY OF IVANJICA
Zorica Sagic1, Marija Lakicevic2, Danijela Durkalic3 *Corresponding author E-mail: damjela.durkalic@kg.ac.rs
ARTICLEINFO ABSTRACT
The purpose of the paper is to present a rural tourism destination and its tourist turnover, in the case study of Ivanjica municipality. Rural tourism is one of the leading tourism products in the global tourism market. Rural tourism destinations have become very prominent in many countries, including Serbia. Within these destinations there are various tourism elements such as traditional culture, archaeological and architectural heritage, gastronomy, recreation, history, sports, etc. Rural area is not just a village. Rural areas also refer to all settlements with no city status. The paper presents the statistical analysis results of tourist turnover in Ivanjica municipality from 2011 to 2018. The statistical analysis is based on data obtained from Tourist Organisation of Ivanjica. Based on analysis results, Discussion and Conclusions provide an overview of the current situation, as well as recommendations for future activities aimed at improving tourist turnover in this destination.
© 2019 EA. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Tourism is an activity which may have a significant influence on the economic, social, functional and physiognomic structure of rural areas. Village tourism is a very broad concept, which includes not only a vacation in the countryside, but also various other tourist activities in rural areas (Todorovic, Bjeljac, 2009). Hall and Richards (2005) strongly emphasise the pressure of contradiction that exists between successful tourism development (generally speaking more visitors) and attractiveness of rural regions (in general peace and silence). The international growth of inbound travels has been reflected in positive numbers in the inbound tourism as well (Fodranova et al., 2019).
1 Zorica Sagic, Ph.D., Professor, High School of Vocational Studies Uzice, Sveti Sava Square 34, 31000 Uzice, Phone: +381605053003, E-mail: zoricasagic@gmail.com, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1124-2542
2 Marija Lakicevic, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, University of Kragujevac, Faculty of Hotel Management and Tourism in Vrnjacka Banja, Vojvodanska Street 5A, 36210 Vrnjacka Banja, Phone: +38162609204, E-mail: marija.lakicevic@kg.ac.rs, ORCID ID: https:// orcid.org/0000-0003-2169-7575
3 Danijela Durkalic, Teaching assisstant, University in Kragujevac, Faculty of Hotel Management and Tourism, Vojvodjanska 5A, 36210 Vrnjacka Banja, Serbia, +381645806599, danijela.durkalic@kg.ac.rs, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8605-8614
Review Article Received: 28 June 2019 Accepted: 28 August 2019 doi:10.5937/ekoPolj1903835S UDC 338.48-44(1-22)(497.11 Ivanjica) Keywords:
tourist turnover, rural tourism, Ivanjica, tourism destination, rural areas
JEL:Z13, Z32
Tourism as an activity indicates the overall economic and cultural development and standards of a country. Tourist movements are an integral part of modern civilisation. By their own nature and development possibilities, they have become an important factor of the overall economic development of Serbia (Plavsa, Gajic-Ostojic, 2010). Tourism is particularly important for economies in transition with increasing number of unemployed industrial workers looking for their business opportunities in rural areas (Stetic, et al., 2014). Also, tourism industry enhances many economic and non-economic activities, stimulates underdeveloped regions and increases employment (Comic, Kosar, 1996). In other words, rural tourism has long been considered a means of achieving economic and social development and regeneration. More specifically, it has been widely promoted as an effective source of income and employment, particularly in peripheral rural areas (Sharpley, 2002).
The Republic of Serbia has no official definition of rural areas. The existing statistical classification of settlements is most often used for defining rural areas. This classification is based on the legal criterion for determining urban settlements, while settlements outside this category are classified as other settlements and thus identified as rural settlements (Gajic, 2015). Depending on the problems and objectives of the research, countries across Europe use different criteria for defining rural and urban areas. The only internationally accepted definition of rural and urban areas is based on the methodology used by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), which defines rural areas by population density.
Rural settlements are settlements with population density below 150 inhabitants per km2 (OECD, 2011). According to this definition, rural areas occupy about 90% of the territory of the Republic of Serbia, with about 43% of total population living in these rural areas. Serbia does not have a long tradition in rural tourism. However, the 1970s may be considered as a start of village tourism in Serbia. Although Serbia possesses a diversified structure of attractiveness, this structure is not accompanied by an adequate profile of tourist products (Todorovic, Bjeljac, 2009).
As a very important component of tourism development, tourist turnover provides data on tourist movement patterns in a destination (Omerovic, 2014). In fact, tourist turnover is an indicator of the total number of tourists and their overnight stays. It's systematic and aggregate indicator, because it includes both above mentioned categories (the total number of tourists and overnight stays). There are three dimensions of tourist turnover: volume, dynamics and structure. The volume refers to a number of tourists and/or a number of their overnight stays. Dynamics as turnover dimension, expresses a change in its volume over a given time period. A tourist turnover structure represents its distribution and is most often shown as a percentage (in relation of the total amount or volume of tourist turnover). In this regard, tourist turnover can be viewed as the volume, dynamics and structure of the total number of tourists i.e., the volume, dynamics and structure of the realised overnight stays (Bakic, et al., 1999).
Keeping records of tourist turnover is mandatory and regulated in most countries. Turnover of domestic tourists and turnover of foreign tourists are separated. The estimation of the tourist turnover volume is based on the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia's official data. The available tourist turnover data are summarized and then divided by the number of reported years. The tourist turnover volume is estimated using the following statistics (Regulation for categorization of tourist sites, 2015):
- a number of tourist arrivals;
- a number of overnight stays in the accommodation facilities;
a number of overnight stays in the accommodation facilities during a year compared to resident population.
Regarding tourism demand forecasting, there are numerous models for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals. Over the past three decades, SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) is one of the most popular time series model in the field of tourism demand forecasting. In addition, Grey model has been successfully applied in tourist arrivals forecasting (Chandra, Kumari, 2018).
As a typical rural tourism area, Ivanjica is very attractive especially for tourists coming from large industrial urbanized zones and lowland areas. Ivanjica municipality fosters all forms of tourism, ranging from health tourism to rural tourism.
Rural tourism in Ivanjica municipality
Ivanjica is a small town and municipality located in Moravica District of south-western Serbia. Ivanjica is the administrative, economic and cultural centre of this region. It is 224 km away from Belgrade. The current population of the municipality is 32,385. Its geographical position and the fact that it is surrounded by the mountain ranges of Golija, Javor, Mucanj, Cemerno i Radocelo, make Ivanjica an exceptional destination for rural tourism development. Because Ivanjica municipality is very rich in natural wealth, huge forest resources, numerous water sources and has a good road infrastructure, it's extremely interesting area for developing all tourism forms.
Ivanjica is rich in natural attractions such as mountains, rivers and lakes. An interesting example is young and still unexplored lake called Nebeska suza (Heaven's Teardrop). The lake was formed after a huge earthquake in Romania in 1977. It has the largest area of all the lakes in Ivanjica municipality (Ostojic, Markovic, 2015). The Government of the Republic of Serbia proclaimed Ivanjica to be the first air spa in Serbia in 2000. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) declared Golija Mountain the First category Park of Nature and the Biosphere Reserve in 2001. 70% of Golija Mountain is located at the territory of Ivanjica municipality (Curcic, 2001). All these facts emphasise the natural potential of Ivanjica and are excellent prerequisites for rural tourism investment and development.
The tourism market is very dynamic and is subject to numerous and frequent changes. The specific tourism market (such as rural tourism) requires specific tourism marketing strategies. Business goals achievement at a tourist destination depends on its ability to satisfy needs of consumers using the optimal combination of marketing instruments and strategic alternatives.
In the literature there are different interpretations of the concept of rural tourism and its manifest forms, determined by the characteristics of the rural area and the availability of resources for the development of rural tourism. For the hosts it is a commercial activity which opens the doors of their homes for guests to enjoy in recreational activities in predominantly rural areas. A wide range of activities that constitute rural tourism product indicates that this form of tourism has no precisely defined target group of tourists (Milicevic, et al., 2015).
Ivanjica has significant tourist values. Valorised in unity with natural sights, they make a huge tourism potential. By their appearance, anthropogenic tourist values can be classified as follows:
- archaeological
- monumental
- ethnographic
- ambient
- manifestation.
Ivanjica was declared a tourist destination at the beginning of the third decade of the 20th century. Some of the main accommodation facilities in Ivanjica are: Park Hotel (built in 1976, categorised with 4 stars and equipped with 140 beds in single-bed and double-bed rooms as well as 3 apartments and many other modern facilities), Moravica Hotel, Vacation centre Golija (126 beds), etc. In villages near Ivanjica, there are hotels: Golijska Reka in the heart of Golija, Dubrava in Prilicki Kiseljak and Javor in Kusici. Happy guests show a larger degree of satisfaction and loyalty and they visit the hotel again, recommend it to their friends, that affects the hotel's profits, and development of tourism as a whole (Vujic, et.al, 2019, p.61). Also, there are several hotels and motels with smaller capacities, such as Mona Hotel in Kusici (on the slopes of Javor), Logos Hotel in Katici (on the slopes of Mucanj), Opaljenik (Javor) and Kapija in Medurecje. In addition, there are many country households and several ethno villages.
Special rehabilitation centre was opened in 1948 and modernised in the 1980s. It represents a combination of health and tourist facilities and has 270 beds in single-bed, double-bed and three-bed rooms, two apartments and accompanying modern facilities (Ostojic, 2011). The oldest tourist destination in Ivanjica municipality is certainly Prilicki Kiseljak. It is a spa with average altitude of nearly 500 m (Ostojic, Markovic, 2011). There are numerous cultural events in Ivanjica, such as the Nusicijada festival. Nusicijada is an annual comedy festival named after Branislav Nusic, a famous Serbian
comedy playwright. This cultural event gathers nearly 50,000 visitors every year (www. ivatourism.co.rs).
As the main tourism destination in this region, Ivanjica realises more than 100,000 overnight stays annually, with an average length of stay of five days per guest. Most of the visitors are domestic guests. The season lasts from May to October, and in January (because of winter school holidays), with the season peaks in July and August. Over the past five years, Ivanjica has recorded a very dynamic growth of tourist turnover, after a long period of stagnation (resulting from the general social and political instability) (Markovic, et al., 2005).
The research methodology
The research questions
The main goal of this research is to explore tourist turnover in Ivanjica municipality. The research questions are as follows:
1) Is Ivanjica being more visited by domestic or by foreign tourists?
2) Do domestic and foreign tourists both realise the same number of overnight stays?
3) Has the number of domestic tourists visits changed over time?
4) Has the number of foreign tourists visits changed over time?
5) Has the domestic tourists' length of stay changed over time?
6) Has the foreign tourists' length of stay changed over time?
7) Has the accommodation capacity changed over time?
8) Has the total length of stay changed over time?
9) Has the total number of tourist visits changed over time?
The research included 4 hotels, a mountain lodge, a rehabilitation centre, a resort and all private accommodation facilities. The sample was the same during the observed time period, i.e., the observed tourist facilities didn't change.
Data Analysis
Data analysis was performed using secondary data from Tourist Organisation of Ivanjica. The analysis considered tourist turnover in Ivanjica municipality from 2011 to 2018. The Independent Samples t Test was used to determine differences between the number of foreign guests and the number of domestic ones. The t test also was used to determine differences between the number of foreign tourists' overnights and the number of domestic tourists' overnights.
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures was performed (with Greenhouse-Geisser correction because the assumption of sphericity was violated) to
determine: differences in the number of domestic tourists in the observed time period; differences in the number of foreign tourists in the observed time period; differences in the number of domestic tourists' overnights in the observed time period; differences in the number of foreign tourists' overnights in the observed time period; differences in the number of beds in the observed time period; differences in the number of overnight stays in the observed time period; and differences in the total number of tourists in the observed time period.
Results and Discussion Table 1. Descriptive statistics
Year N Mean Median Mode Standard Deviation Min Max
Number of rooms 8 53 48,5 26 31,924 18 108
Number of apartments 5 5,2 5 2 3,421 2 10
Number of beds 8 133,75 117 94 74,308 42 270
Number of domestic tourists 6 2526,33 1776 249 2579,928 249 6940
2011 Number of foreign tourists 5 279,8 88 30 361,334 30 880
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 6 15625,3 5942 1007 25296,012 1007 66350
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 5 728,6 176 65 1036,201 65 2524
Total number of tourists 6 2759,5 1976,5 279 2690,962 279 7028
Total number of overnight stays 6 16232,5 7564 1072 25177,437 1072 66526
Number of rooms 8 48,38 33 6 38,037 6 108
Number of apartments 4 5 2,5 2 5,354 2 13
Number of beds 8 131,88 107 94 79,319 42 270
Number of domestic tourists 6 2505,17 2121 240 2289,532 240 6085
2012 Number of foreign tourists 5 195,6 103 20 261,459 20 659
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 6 15457,5 4327 750 22413,932 750 57680
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 5 399,8 149 30 557,711 30 1376
Total number of tourists 6 2668,17 2505 260 2359,056 260 6188
Total number of overnight stays 6 15790,7 5015 780 22348,43 780 57783
Year N Mean Median Mode Standard Deviation Min Max
Number of rooms 8 37,75 27,5 18 33,005 6 108
Number of apartments 5 18 3 2 29,436 2 70
Number of beds 8 132 110 50 84,801 50 270
Number of domestic tourists 6 2534,5 2080,5 156 2714,937 156 7145
2013 Number of foreign tourists 5 184,4 65 11 324,021 11 762
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 6 15025,8 4311 277 23423,906 277 60660
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 5 488,6 203 11 764,024 11 1842
Total number of tourists 6 2688,17 2198,5 167 2778,212 167 7160
Total number of overnight stays 6 15433 5333,5 288 23329,527 288 60755
Number of rooms 8 37,75 27,5 18 33,005 6 108
Number of apartments 5 18,2 3 2 29,878 2 71
Number of beds 8 132,5 110 50 85,57 50 270
Number of domestic tourists 6 2161,83 1650,5 108 2296,05 108 5949
2014 Number of foreign tourists 5 177 56 4 289,778 4 689
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 6 12663,3 2877 191 20377,908 191 51981
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 5 466,2 183 16 727,5 16 1760
Total number of tourists 5 2749,6 3148 120 2305,064 120 5965
Total number of overnight stays 6 13051,8 3848,5 207 20292,331 207 52127
Number of rooms 8 37,75 27,5 18 33,005 6 108
Number of apartments 5 18,2 3 2 29,878 2 71
Number of beds 8 132,5 110 50 85,57 50 270
Number of domestic tourists 5 2318,4 1085 41 2685,774 41 6183
2015 Number of foreign tourists 4 109,5 60,5 15 132,475 15 302
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 5 16280,6 1737 187 24415,522 187 56753
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 4 271,25 104,5 71 356,354 71 805
Total number of tourists 5 2406 1387 41 2688,631 41 6274
Total number of overnight stays 5 16497,6 2542 187 24331,077 187 56844
Number of rooms 6 62,17 49,5 32 41,878 18 114
Number of apartments 0
Number of beds 6 156,67 125 42 97,508 42 279
Number of domestic tourists 5 3477,8 3789 210 3328,542 210 8063
2016 Number of foreign tourists 4 275,25 32 2 507,213 2 1035
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 5 18655,8 9046 735 25150,27 735 60996
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 4 628,75 116 2 1104,941 2 2281
Total number of tourists 5 3698 3849 210 3478,161 210 8065
Total number of overnight stays 5 19158,8 11327 735 24952,429 735 60998
Year N Mean Median Mode Standard Deviation Min Max
Number of rooms 6 61,83 48 18 42,823 18 114
Number of apartments 0
Number of beds 6 151,17 112 42 97,008 42 291
Number of domestic tourists 6 3325,17 2510 109 3433,496 109 7966
2017 Number of foreign tourists 5 185 25 3 329,84 3 770
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 6 16544,7 8059 492 22344,158 492 57888
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 5 389,8 68 6 701,106 6 1634
Total number of tourists 6 3479,33 2578,5 109 3591,441 109 7981
Total number of overnight stays 6 16869,5 8879 492 22336,868 492 57903
Number of rooms 6 61,17 48 18 42,654 18 114
Number of apartments 0
Number of beds 6 149,67 125 42 91,577 42 268
Number of domestic tourists 5 3452,8 4268 177 3111,89 177 7129
2018 Number of foreign tourists 3 338,67 49 2 542,929 2 965
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 5 19052,4 10781 1048 24046,546 1048 58970
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 3 792,33 736 4 817,956 4 1637
Total number of tourists 5 3656 4317 179 3289,882 179 7129
Total number of overnight stays 5 19527,8 12418 1052 23946,246 1052 58970
Number of rooms 58 48,76 32 18 35,849 6 114
Number of apartments 24 13,25 3 2 22,549 2 71
Number of beds 58 138,72 112 100 81,348 42 291
TOTAL Number of domestic tourists 45 2768,07 2333 41 2631,054 41 8063
Number of foreign tourists 36 212,89 62,5 15 318,243 2 1035
Number of overnight stays of domestic tourists 45 16041 4447 187 21539,591 187 66350
Number of overnight stays of foreign tourists 36 509,5 167 226 722,026 2 2524
Total number of tourists 44 3002,7 2761,5 41 2722,018 41 8065
Total number of overnight stays 45 16448,6 6207 187 21456,816 187 66526
Source: Authors' calculations
Figure 1. The number of tourists in the observed time period
It can be noted that on average Ivanjica was visited more by domestic tourists (124563) than by foreign tourists (7664). On average, the number of domestic tourists (M=2768.07) grew at a rate of 4.56% per year, while the number of foreign tourists (M=212.89) grew at an average annual rate of 2.76%. It can be noted (Figure 1.) that in 2005, there was a large increase in the number of domestic tourists. In the observed time period Ivanjica municipality was significantly more visited by domestic tourists (M=2768.07; SD=2631.05) than by foreign tourists (M=212.89; SD=318.24); t (46)=6.46; p=0.00. The results indicate that this area must be focused on attracting more foreign tourists. Ivanjica municipality has a potential to do so, but it is important for tourism officials to better understand the needs of potential foreign visitors and to design appropriate tourism marketing strategies.
There were no significant differences in the number of domestic tourists in Ivanjica municipality in the observed time period, F (1.02)=2.82; p=0.17; partial n2=0.41. It was also found that there were no significant differences in the number of foreign tourists in Ivanjica municipality in the observed time period, F (1)=1.09; p=0.49; partial n2=0.52.
Figure 2. The number of overnight stays in the observed time period
The Figure 2. shows that domestic tourists realised more overnights on average (721844) than foreign tourists (18342). On average, the number of overnight stays of domestic tourists (M=16040.98) grew at a rate of 2.87% annually, while the number of overnight stays of foreign tourists (509.50) grew at an average annual rate of 1.21%. There was a huge increase in the number of domestic tourists in 2015 in Ivanjica. Fewer visits of foreign tourists resulted in fewer overnights of those tourists compared to domestic ones. The strategy for improving poor statistics must be aimed at better identifying needs of existing and potential foreign tourists.
In Ivanjica, domestic tourists realised much more overnight stays (M=16040.98; SD=21539.59) than foreign tourists (M=509.50; SD=722.03); t (44)=4.83; p=0.00. There were no significant differences in the number of overnight stays of domestic tourists in the observed period, F (2.06)=1.30; p=0.32; partial n2=0.24. There were also no significant differences in the number of foreign tourists in the observed period, F (1)=0.91; p=0.51; partial n2=0.48.
Figure 3. The number of overnight stays compared to the number of beds in the
observed time period
'Total number of overnight stays
Source: Authors' calculations
The figure 3. shows that in 2014 there was a decline in the total number of overnight stays and in the following year it increased and reached its peak in 2018. On average, the number of beds grew at a rate of 1.62% annually, while the number of overnight stays grew at an average annual rate of 2.68%. There were no significant differences in the number of beds in the observed period, F (1.50)=1.14; p=0.35; partial n2=0.19. There were also no significant differences in the number of overnight stays in the observed period, F (2.07)=1.23; p=0.33; partial n2=0.24.
Figure 4. The number of tourists compared to the number of beds in the observed
time period
Source: Authors' calculations
The figure 4. shows that there was a significant increase in the number of tourists in 2016. On average, the number of beds grew at a rate of 1.62% annually, while the number guests grew at an average annual rate of 4.10%. There were no significant differences in the number of tourists in the observed period, F (1.33)=2.31; p=0.21; partial n2=0.43.
Figure 5. The number of tourists compared to the number of overnight stays in the
observed time period
The figure 5. shows that in 2014 there was a decline in the total number of overnight stays and in the following year it increased and reached its peak in 2018. On average, the number of tourists grew at a rate of 4.10% per year, while the number of overnight stays grew at an average annual rate of 2.68%. There was a significant increase in the number of overnight stays in 2016.
Conclusions
In the past Ivanjica was not an attractive tourism destination. It was just a small Serbian town. But today Ivanjica is something completely different. Especially over the past five years Ivanjica has recorded a very dynamic growth of rural tourism offer and tourist turnover. As a typical rural tourism destination, Ivanjica municipality has very attractive attributes especially for tourists coming from large industrial urbanised areas and lowlands and looking for a peace and a beautiful nature. Various tourism forms are possible in Ivanjica municipality, but rural tourism is a dominant one.
But the tourism potential of this area is not completely exploited. This should be a great challenge and inspiration in the future. Ivanjica municipality and its tourist organisation have to use all available resources in order to improve and promote rural tourism. The emphasis should be on a sustainable rural tourism. The long-term development strategy requires the institutional issues to be solved in a timely manner. A rural tourism management has to take into account economic and environmental sustainability of Ivanjica municipality.
In terms of tourist turnover structure, domestic tourists are dominant. But Ivanjica has a potential to attract more foreign guests, considering that investments in Golija for developing winter tourism are expected. It should not be forgotten that Ivanjica was declared an air spa, and therefore it is interesting as a destination with healthy food and clean air. For further development of rural tourism it is necessary to include the richness of biodiversity and ecosystems in the tourism offer. The whole world is increasingly turning to so-called eco-destinations. This is a great opportunity for Ivanjica, because it is rich in exceptional natural resources. So far, rural tourism development in Ivanjica municipality has not jeopardised the resources on which it is based, so they remain preserved for the generations to come.
Acknowledgements
Paper is a part of research within the project no. III 46006 - Sustainable agriculture and rural development in the function of accomplishing strategic objectives of the Republic of Serbia in the Danube region, financed by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. Project period: 2011-2019.
Conflict of interests
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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