CC BY
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Section 13. Economics and management
2. Toffler E. Shok budustchego [Future shock]. - Publishing house AST, - Moscow, Russia. - 2002.
3. Gumilev L. N. Etnogenes i Biosfera Zemli [Ethnogenes and biosphere of the Earth]. - Azbuka-klassika, - S.-Petersburg, Russia. - 2002.
Gorodetskaya Olga Stanislavovna, Podolsk Institute (branch) of Moscow State University of Mechanical Engineering (MAMI), Candidate of Economics, Associated Professor, The Department of Enterprise economics and administration in machine manufacturing E-mail: elektra107@yandex.ru
Analysis and projection of economic activity in Russian machine manufacturing
Abstract: The article presents the results of the analysis of entrepreneurship in machine manufacturing in the Russian Federation and its elements (organizational and innovating potential, entrepreneurial environment, social and economic effectiveness). The method of entrepreneurship risk is evaluated in machine manufacturing. Risk evaluation is based on descriptive model methods of extrapolation and the method of minimal sum of squares calculations is applied. Results can be used in the macroeconomic of Russia and regional entrepreneurial regulation.
Keywords: analysis of projection of economic tendencies, entrepreneurship, projection of economic tendencies in machine manufacturing.
In the course of reformation of the national industry, machine manufacturing commercial enterprises conduct a necessary complex modernization of production giving an important role to the improvement of control systems and technical re-equipment in the conditions of sharp market competition. Not only analysis of economic activity, but also a specially developed method of projection of economic processes in the industry as a main goal of optimization of entrepreneurial machine manufacturing risks is required for the effective solution of problems of entrepreneurial activity in the Russian machine manufacturing sphere [1, 84], [2, 48]. It is determined by the fact that machine manufacturing is one of the main industries of the economy that define the development of other complexes such as fuel and energy, chemical, oil and chemical, transport and construction [3, 100]. Thus, the most important specific indicators of gross domestic product in Russia, and, consequently, the competitiveness of the manufactured product, depend on the development level of the machine manufacturing industry. The machine manufacturing includes a complex of fields of processing industry that performs machine manufacturing and includes general machine manufacturing, transport machine manufacturing, radio-electronics, electro-technical and instrumentation manufacturing industry, agricultural machine manufacturing, machine tool manufacturing and energy machine manufacturing [1, 86]. According to statistical data, the peak of entrepreneurial activity in the Russian Federation was the highest in 2010. For instance, in 2009 it accounted for 66,8 % compared with the previous year; in 2010 it accounted for 115,2 % compared with the previous year; in 2011 it accounted for 111,1 % compared with the previous year; in 2012 it accounted for 102,7 % compared
with the previous year; in 2013 it accounted for 96,6 % compared with the previous year [6].
According to the national statistics, the Russian machine manufacturing industry will increase the production along with the foreign firms. It is confirmed by forecasts and evaluations of BusinesStat: by 2018, the volumes of import of ready metal processing machines will grow by 4,7 % per year at average. The national manufacturers will also increase the production. In 2018 the level of production of metal processing machines will be about 5,8 thousand pieces of ready equipment. The demand for hydro-manipulators production for the forest management in the Russian Federation rises every year, which is proved by the replacement of existing outdated equipment and increase in the volume of forest harvesting in the Russian Federation. The following regions take the leading role in the structure of forest harvesting in the Russian Federation: Khabarovsk region, Primorsky Krai, Irkutsk region, Arkhangelsk region and the Republic of Karelia. The average cost of a ready item is 800 000 rubles; the planned number of personnel is 150 people and the volume of main project investment is 100 million rubles. [9]
In recent years, the possibility of industrial risks in the management of machine manufacturing entrepreneurial activity has taken significant place among other entrepreneurial spheres in the industrial activity due to production growth. With regard to this reason, one of the first places is taken by machine manufacturing after electric energy, chemical and metal industries, including machine tool and automobile manufacturing [3, 101].
To put Russia back on the world market as one of the
leaders of aircraft industry by 2015, it will require $20 billion,
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including about $12 billion from the federal budget (without consideration of costs on buying aircraft equipment under state defense order). According to the concept, the state should bear a high share of responsibility, particularly, in the sphere of covering the risks that aircraft industry can’t cover on its own [8].
As a proof of the above said, the project of a Law «About industrial policy» was passed unanimously during the first reading at plenary meeting of the State duma in October 2014. The document is intended to significantly improve the situation with investment climate in the industry as well as give serious preferences to high technology sectors of the Russian industry, including machine manufacturing. It presupposes the implementation of long-term (till 2025) tax benefits and preferences for new complex projects [7].
According to 2014 data, there is financing deficit and financial risks in the machine manufacturing industry. For example, after the examination of the situation in the Russian market of trucks that showed a drop by 20 %, taking into account the experience of fellow colleagues in the industry and with the purpose to preserve financial stability of the company, September 26, 29 and 30 were announced the days of downtime at KAMAZ with regard to separate personnel categories, without presence at their work stations and payment of two thirds of average salary. According to the decree, not all KAMAZ employees will have additional days off in September. Regular, repair and prevention works will be conducted as before. The departments involved in realization and shipment of ready product, production of spare parts, bus chassis and diversification products as well as a part of the personnel servicing the continuously operating production in the number required for the sustenance of its work in stand-by duty, functioning of the life support systems and property safety will perform work traditionally, according to a regular five-day schedule. During the days of downtime, KAMAZ lawyers, accountants and HR specialists will do their work. It is especially noted that if required, for the purpose of monthly plan realization, the downtime days will be cancelled. 30 thousand employees will be working at «AvtoVAZ» by 2020. It became known that redundancy of the personnel of «Volzhskiy avtozavod» will not stop even after the cut of losses. 45 % of employees will be redundant during next six years. Thus, only 30 thousand out of 55 thousand employees will be left at «AvtoVAZ» by 2020. The situation of automobile factory in Tolyatti remains unsatisfactory. During the first six months of this year «AvtoVAZ» brought a loss of 55 million Euros to Renault and the redundancy of staff and production reduction continue. Nevertheless, there are quite optimistic forecasts regarding the profit and growth of production. August sales of «AvtoVAZ» in 2014 dropped by 32,3 % compared with August of the previous year (from 39 to 26,5 thousand vehicles). According to the report by the Association of European Business (AEB), the largest Russian automobile producer sold 18,5 % less cars (247 289 units) from January to August 2014 compared with the same period in 2013. Thus, in August 2014 the group
«AvtoVAZ-Renault-Nissan» sold 24,1 % less — 50 455 cars, and during 8 months the decrease was 10,2 % to 479 144 cars. In the whole, the car sales in August reduced by 25,8 %. The chairman of the committee of automobile producers of AEB Joerg Schreiber noted that the state program on utilization gave hope regarding the end of the market fall. However, the program hasn’t started yet. There is also deficit of financing for a full-scale technical re-equipment in ship-building industry. As Alexey Rakhmanov, the president of the Russian state «Unified ship-building corporation» (USC) explained, the existing investment in the industry is not sufficient for its proper development. The corporation will analyze programs of technical re-equipment according to regional and cluster principle and the investment programs will be selected, which are optimal and can give the priority to investments that will cut costs and increase workforce productivity [7].
But things are not that bad in machine manufacturing entrepreneurship. Investment programs are in operation. For example, OJSC «Petrozavodskmash», a production site of CJSC «AEM-tekhnologii» (a part machine manufacturing division of Rosatom — Atomenergomash), put a new automated thermal incinerator in the operation at the site of pipe spools and collectors of assembly-welding production. The incinerator is intended for high temperature release of part of pipe spools of the main circulation pipeline of the APS. During thermal processing the fluctuation of temperatures in the zone of the incinerator should not be more than two-three degrees. The use of high-speed pulse gas burners in the new incinerator allows adhering to the given condition, which increases the quality of thermal processing of the welding joints and items. Furthermore, according to the results of commissioning tests, the incinerator shows good technical and economic indicators. One can talk about the fact that with the implementation of the given incinerator the costs on thermal processing from the point of gas flow as a main component of fuel and energy resources will reduce by 20-25 %. During the incinerator construction, modern technologies and materials were used. The lining of the new incinerator (special ceramic fiber thermal insulating material) does not require long advance heating before the loading of items for processing, which saves the gas flow and reduces production cycle. Tube recuperator increases the efficiency of work of the new equipment, which is installed in the system of smoke removal. The air for burning is heated here, which saves fuel gas. The new thermal incinerator was acquired during an investment program realized in OJSC «Petrozavodskmash» under the guidance of CJSC «AEM-tekhnologii» in order to increase the volumes of production and assimilate the production of equipment for the atomic industry of Russia [7].
Another example. A new industrial park will be created at the site of OJSC «Uralmashzavod». The future industrial zone will occupy about 202,5 ha. Industrial park is a specially organized territory controlled by one operator and aimed at placement of production complex. The site should be provided with energy carriers, infrastructure and required
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administrative and legal conditions. The project of creation of the industrial park on the base of Uralmashzavod is realized in order to attract investors as well as increase the efficiency of freed sites, particularly, production and service companies of machine manufacturing complex capable of developing internal cooperation and providing for the needs of OJSC «Uralmashzavod», CJSC «URBO» with regard to materials, parts, spare part etc. It is planned that for project work a managing company will be selected, which will be engaged in attracting investors and promoting the industrial park. It is planned that the operating group under the governor of Sverdlovsk region will analyze all materials on creation of the industrial park by July, 15. Gazprombank (main stakeholder of Uralmashzavod) is ready to support the project. The volume of required investment will be defined by the concept of creation and development of the industrial park, which will be prepared by the operating group. Earlier, the bank bought a part of the factory’s site, where a new enterprise «Uralmash — drilling equipment» was set up. Before the purchase of this site, the production of drilling equipment was stopped. In the last few years, OJSC «Gazprombank» invested 20 billion rubles in the project [7].
Also, entrepreneurs in machine manufacturing try to modernize the production and improve the quality of products: according to the plans of the top-management of the Industrial group «Generatsiya», modernization of the factory of OJSC «DZKHM» (a part of the group of companies operating under the brand «Generatsiya») started and will be performed in several stages. On the 10th of September, within the frames of the first stage of modernization of the enterprise, an automated site of robotized welding of items and metal structures was put into operation. The nomenclature of product release of the site is volume and spatial items as well as metal constructions with outline dimensions. Currently, the production of equipment for the construction of Belarus APS is performed at the site. Unlimited possibilities of the robotized site will allow producing equipment for APS and any other industrial enterprise [7].
Izhevsk electromechanical plant «Kupol» (an enterprise of the AAD group «Almaz-Antei») will spend 1,5 billion rubles on modernization of production in 2014. «Only in the last 3 years 3 billion rubles were given for investment activity. Machines, different devices, generators, supply sources are purchased and premises are reconstructed and repaired. IEMP «Kupol» produces the systems of anti-aircraft defense (AAD) of short range, the main developer of which is another enterprise of the group — Scientific and research electromechanical institute (Moscow). Particularly, IEMP is the head enterprise in production of anti-aircraft missile system « Tor-M2E ». Moreover, the plant performs modernization of anti-aircraft missile system «Osa-AKM», anti-aircraft missile system « Tor-M1 » and their modification, production of onboard equipment of surface-to-air guided missile, and renders services to exploiting organizations. AAD systems produced at the enterprise are in the inventory of over twenty countries [7].
But, as Tatiana Golikova, the head of the Audit chamber, stated during a parliamentary reading in the Federation Council, according to the information of RIA «Novosti», the main risk for the Russian economy in October 2014 will be the drop in oil and gas prices lower than the projected level. Another risk is the limited internal financial resources and possible difficulties in the attraction of external ones. Also, according to the words of the Head of the Audit chamber, the level of inflation can be higher than expected in 2014 and further periods. With regard to such situation, entrepreneurial risks in machine manufacturing will grow. Entrepreneurial risks of machine manufacturing enterprises are a combination of presupposed dangers related to specific activity in machine manufacturing and high level of risks of this activity, taking into consideration unfavorable results of operation and management of a machine manufacturing enterprise with the possibility of profit loss, damage to property of the enterprise and health of the personnel, which should be insured. The tendency of production growth in machine manufacturing may significantly increase provided the machine manufacturing enterprises conduct an effective evaluation and insurance of risks saving themselves in the process of production activity and having confidence in the conditions of strict industrial competition [1, 22].
In order to evaluate entrepreneurial risks in machine manufacturing and their further prevention, including insurance, we improved the method of evaluation and insurance from risks of machine manufacturing enterprises (MEandIR) with the help of extrapolation method on the basis of a complex analysis of the entire activity of machine manufacturing firms. In the process of machine manufacturing there are often indicators provoking risks, which require appropriate evaluation and insurance. The optimal variant of projection of such risks is the methods of regression and extrapolation transformed for MEandIR with the help of the following calculation:
Y (N + 1) = A0 + A1 x Y (N) + A2 x Y (N - 1) +
+ A3 x Y (N - 2) +...+ AK x Y(N - K), where А0 and А1 are the parameters of activity in machine manufacturing; Y is an actual value of a result feature. Preliminary calculation of parameters is performed through the method of minimal sum of squares (MSS); the parameters of activity in machine manufacturing for evaluation of their value and their possibility are obtained with the help of MSS deviations of actual values from the ones discovered through regression equation.
On the assumption of the need to perform periodical forecast of further development of the situation in machine and equipment production, which is a very important feature when calculating the possibility of a risk, its evaluation and management, the specific of machine manufacturing enterprises and the management of their activities should be taken into account. It is determined by the fact that their production activity is defined by many factors and cannot be a constant value, because the change of production factors depends on the difficulty of technology of creation of the
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manufactured products and kinds of production specialization at any period of time. Hence, MEandIR is adapted for corporate structures of the machine manufacturing industry. Using the developed approach to analysis and evaluation of risks arising in machine manufacturing in the form of MEandIR for further management of them and insurance from them as the most effective applicable instrument of re-
search, one can successfully solve the tasks of management of the entire machine manufacturing. The effectiveness of production activity after the implementation of improved and adapted method of evaluation and insurance from risks for machine manufacturing enterprises increases by 35-40 % at average and the profit grows by 15 % as minimum [1, 112].
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3. Gorodetskaya O. S. Entrepreneurial risks of machine manufacturing enterprises//Scientific notes: Role and place of civilized entrepreneurship in the economy of Russia: Collection of scientific works. Issue XXX - M.: Russian Academy of entrepreneurship. Printing agency «Science and education», - 2012, - p. 100-108.
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Zhelezkova Polina Evgenyevna, Admiral Makarov State University of Maritime and Inland Shipping, Ph. D student, Economics and Industrial Company Management department E-mail: ver1tas@mail.ru
Characteristic aspects of the Northwest Baltic Region Sea basin
Abstract: This work covers the characteristic features of the port infrastructure development in the Northwest of the Baltic basin. The ports specialization is emphasized. Following the results, a need to build multimodal terminal and logistic complexes (hubs) was found.
Keywords: port infrastructure, economic development, multimodal transport corridor.
Maritime transport is a central link between the Baltic crossborder transformational region and the experience of networking interaction gained in the sector is used in the future for the working out trans-national programs and development projects for other types of transport represented in the Baltic region.
Meanwhile the development of the ports of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) is still dependent on the availability of the Russian cargo volume that these ports have to involve using the existing competitive advantages and creating new ones.
Today the BSR ports seek to reduce the cargo delivery time, reduce the cost of transportation, improve the service quality and expand the range of services [3, 3].
North West is the only region of Russia which borders the countries of the European Union. This is the widest passage in the West for Russia. In 2010, about 30 % of the country’s
foreign trade cargo was transported through the territory of the Northwestern Federal District. Such large Russian ports as Primorsk and Big Port Saint-Petersburg are located in the Gulf of Finland, Ust-Luga port is expanding (is expected to be the largest cargo port in the Russian Federation).
Here the entrance into the inner Russian marine system is located. The networks of auto roads and railway lines, pipelines and airlines are sufficiently developed, although are in need of modernization.
Russia’s North West is characterized by ports, the specialization of which is multidirectional. In order to understand and evaluate the specialization of the ports in the region, a table is presented where both service regions and the vessels which can serve in these ports, are consolidated as well as a list of cargo the ports process (Table 1).
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