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Communicational delay backgrounds in modern World economy forecast: obstacles overcoming milestones
By calculations of experts of FAO till 2030 production of grain will increase by 20-21 %, and the total amount will reach 2149-2150 million tons at requirement of2675 million tons, use of seafood will be 100 million tons at requirement of 168 million tons. The gain of foodstuff making till 1985 — 30 million tons a year, in 1985-1995 — 12 million tons is reduced, in 1996-2030 no more than 9 million tons a year are supposed. Dynamics of demand thus will be opposite as the population of the planet in 2030 will be about 8,9 billion people (an annual gain — 90 million people) at the general unevenness of its distribution on regions of the world.
Situation with food supply is aggravated because of aspiration of the states to increase quality of the food inaccessible now, approximately, for one billion people. It is specified in the Report on the world development of2008 prepared by the staff of the International bank of reconstruction and development of the World bank that for a solution of the food problem during the period from 2000 to 2030 it is necessary to increase production of grain by food needs for 50 % and meat for 85 %.
Negative tendencies of formation of food resources make and will make depressive impact on the food market as in general, and the certain countries, irrespective of their economic state.
Tendencies of planetary scale (food crisis, global climate change, deficiency of hydro carbonic raw materials, an increase in prices for energy carriers and food, etc.) adversely influence on all national food systems, promoting formation of potential threats of food security. The deficiency increased by imbalance of supply and demand; export reduction; speculative tendencies and politicization of commercial transactions, makes depressive impact to the world food market. It means that the food security of the state can be guaranteed only at further dynamic innovative development of own production of raw materials and food, stability of the rural territory and eradication of poverty as social phenomenon.
Versatility of a problem of food security dictates the need of searching one more way of its providing. The combination of the following elements can be optimum option: preservation and expansion of internal production of the food, ensuring steady import, creation of appropriate stocks of the food. And any of listed depending on a situation in each concrete country can be the leading element.
For many states carrying out the effective and reasonable policy aimed at self-sufficiency by food — a basis of food security. Other countries need program implementation of accumulation of currency resources for purchasing food abroad and acceptance of preventive measures for decrease in damage which can result from sudden loss of access to the food markets. Thus the most obvious step on this way is the formation of internal reserves of the food for consumption during the crisis period. But the use of stocks for satisfaction of demand in an emergency situation is a temporary measure. Eventually in the course of ensuring national food security achievement of an effective ratio of consumption level and self-sufficiency by the food, and also establishment of optimum size of import of agricultural production in the presence of effective system of insurance in emergency situations is essential to the majority of the countries.
Thus, the main global economic problem of the agricultural markets is ensuringfood security. The problem of food security mentions as ensuring sufficiency of deliveries of food at all levels — global, national, regional and individual as the system of insurance upon the risks connected with these deliveries.
The optimum combination of three elements — internal production, import, creation of public stocks — allows creating effective system of food security. Import from different countries promotes reduction of risk in connection with a crop failure in the export countries. Internal production serves as an instrument of insurance against risks connected with sufficiency and availability of import. Accumulation of stocks is temporary, but rather effective measure for elimination of sudden shortages of food.
Within multilateral system of world trade regulation it is necessary to form a set of rules which will consider specific features of different groups of countries, to have sufficient flexibility, to promote implementation of the most suitable combination of measures in the field of a trade policy to reach food security of all countries. However, trade liberalization is not the only way of achievement of food security. Trade and internal production have to complete each other organically.
Reforms in agricultural area have to be directed on strengthening of food security and achievement of steady internal production, ensuring access to the stable and predictable world market.
Dvoynykh Kostyantyn Yevgenovych, Odessa national university, Ph.D Economics E-mail: [email protected]
Communicational delay backgrounds in modern World economy forecast: obstacles overcoming milestones
Abstract: The article is devoted to forecast perspectives in modern World (network one) economy conditions. As a corresponding invariant for transition economical conditions the international ethnical processes are defined.
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On that basis is possible to suggest super-ethnos economical model as certain invariant for simulation and forecasting in modern World economy.
Keywords: modern World economy, forecast, economical invariant, ethnical processes, simulation, super-ethnos.
The fact of point of no return passing concerning settled economical approaches (in forecast and simulation context) is the principal characteristic of modern World (network) economy. Such bifurcation psychologically is still enough complicatedly perceived on collective level, however there is a clear reality directed into world economical development perspectives. In the context of modern World economy the economical reality dynamic is far ahead relatively any previously declared knowledge reactive analysis possibilities. In particular, it concerns economical forecast and simulation. Therefore, questions of processes and trends analysis improvement in accordance with known approaches are conceding regarding timeliness of decision-making concerning: which from approaches (perhaps unknown today) are the right ones. It means in modern World economy technological possibilities for any kinds of simulating and forecast providing are existing de-facto. Remains only to understand: in which ways and for which tasks such available instrument has to be used.
In the context of economical forecast invariant ethnical processes definition is necessary to address: in network economy invariant is needed in principal replacement the imitational and natural simulation kinds on semi-natural ones. The reason of that is: essential simulating kinds are certain extremities considered to stable economic understanding. Therefore, these simulation kinds can nor be defined as perspective ones. Simultaneously, for semi-natural simulations is being considering necessary networks flexibility. Thus, especially economical invariant is guarantying its external interrelations (economical reality hierarchical perception elements). Exactly that is a principle for real collisions providing for a number of different economical systems during of their simulation and forecast process. From that point of view is being obviously: exactly semi-natural simulating is able to answer for modem world economy question: not how in better way provide forecasting in accordance to stable understandings, but how to work out timely decision concerning concrete forecast approach (even, still unknown) — it should be chosen as is right one [1].
The Neo-economy (World one) is a radical destruction of philosophical reality established stereotypes perception (established way terms as pace acceleration, resources exhaustion, selfdestruction, destructive psychology). Therefore, known economical analysis approaches are fixed into invariant deprivation methods. So, they are depended from economical changes dynamics. Thus, the neo-economic difference is in considering for economical analysis the newly-additional factor: semi-natural experiment as a number of ethnical processes ones.
The semi-natural experiment compulsorily requires its own network Internet-realization. The basic prerequisite for this is a transition from ethnical processes primary models to their network grouping. Anyone from such similar models has to be a result of superposition or combination from
a number of previous models by becoming (in its turn) to basis for next models certain quantity. At the same time between next models and corresponding previous ones are occurring certain pathways of communications where previously chosen model of current research could be absent. In other words has to exist a number of coherent models which conjoining primary assumption (invariant existing in different approaches collisions) and forecast technology for new network economy. De-facto such technology is a system effect from ethnical processes models network superposition becoming to base for semi-natural experiment regular providing in network conditions for economical forecasting. According to its applied realization network principles such experiment providing has to be accessible and affordable for everybody, Only in such conditions timely answer on network economy key task can be received which forecast approach is right one [2].
For primary network models construction the economical invariant (ethnical processes) should be formalized in context of economical science knowledge famous sources systematization. Such systematization result has to be extremely clear and acceptable for network development logic. Namely existence a certain number basic elements and principles their interrelations have to be defined. Generalized conclusion economical literature analysis: there are two extreme poles. Between them are existing different transition forms of energetic exchange in economical activity widely various kinds. Economical thought systematization permits to suggest next its structure in modern World economy problems context:
• Openness problems — Eurasian super-ethnos representatives (Russian Federation) scientific thought;
• Closeness problems — Western super-ethnos representatives (USA and EU) scientific thought [1].
As common background for such structure is possible to mention:
- lack of dominating (in world context) scientific thought of effective economic systems representatives from other super-ethnoses;
- their joint recognition force-major circumstances as natural experiments over the independent from human rational will processes (it concerns wars as ethnical processes sublimation);
- tactical recognition and research by all scientific communities the energetic exchange transitional schemes between world economical poles including transition energetic streams direction and intensity descriptions (statistics as a basis for conclusions and forecast).
In order to compare in such sphere economical poles as key criteria can be highlighted:
• psychological — economical self-feel comparatively other super-ethnoses;
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Communicational delay backgrounds in modern World economy forecast: obstacles overcoming milestones
• applied — own economical activity directions aggregating specialization on the basis of economical reality collective feeling.
For Western super-ethnos is considered dominating global feel and strategic sureness concerning compulsory inflow of external energy (even if now unknown time and ways). Applied instrument in such psychological situation becomes management and marketing approaches improvement in resource limitation conditions, but also technologies for unlimited Universe resources reaching systematic development [1]. Strategic rightness of such vision feeling provides harmonious superposition between newly technologies and stable management approaches. Therefore, all their combinations by all means will be useful for Western super-ethnos economy.
What is about Eurasia super-ethnos then necessary to conclude the next dominating understanding and psychological conviction: under external contacts this super-ethnos any kinds of energy are leaving in any conditions by various ways and formats [4]. Thus, in management prevail various attempts of coercive restriction for this irreversible (according to perception) process manifestation. Simultaneously is occurring necessity to realize strategically risky technologies for unlimited Universe resources reaching. In its turn, that is a reason for obsolete technologies based on strategic resources within limited Earth expanse using. Seems necessary to add that other super-ethnoses economical thought and collective perception a-priori agrees with such constellation. That is why their attention is concentrated on balance and proportions compliance between two world economical poles. Therefore is possible to confidently say: two world economical poles are stipulating world potential difference whose local demonstrating itself initiates world importance economical aftermaths. Leftover super-ethnoses generate links (world economy elements) for energy flowing in world economy expanse. On such understanding basis it becomes possible to format certain milestones for forecasting in modern World economy conditions.
Events in Ukraine during 2014 have actualized the problem of common analysis for economical thought sources written in peaceful conditions. In the first place, because of exactly economical thought poles (Western and Eurasian super-ethnoses) during a lot of decades have not been involved into wars within themselves. That has stipulated dominating of usual for peaceful time economical reality understanding. However, modern world economy requires another prism for these events observing, in particular, in the context of forecast certain basis distinguishing and formalization in such conditions. Mentioned events should be recognized as natural experiment in world economy founding certain global economical trend. From economical invariant (ethnical processes) point of vision this experiment essence is: global attempt to transform the domination on certain territory standoff (processes within
super-ethnos) into a war to destroy (considered for conflicts between super-ethnoses). In other words, we are talking about coercive intervention attempts into ethnical process in order to artificially break super-ethnos (Eurasian) within itself. Pay attention: exactly Eurasian super-ethnos (not in contrary to acknowledged economical thought) is giant world energetic donor in various formats. But Russia (war initiator) does not have recourses excesses for own strategic consumption and development So, today available recourses are being spending on obviously losing strategic goals which will be stipulated by losses through:
• directly military costs;
• any various standoffs for to being in contrary to global world economy;
• any kinds ofWestern super-ethnos sanctions (including satellites);
• incorporation or annexation a-priori unprofitable and economically unpromising regions (taking into account Russian economy format);
• artificial manipulations in the context of international law power changing where Russian Federation (including its ancestors) historically always came to fiasco;
• strategic internal recourses depletion (including human one);
• all consequential derivative long lasting additional factors.
Then a newly vision on Russian economical thought is
forming (concerning infinite loop trends in the context of stable negative economical situation overcoming). Is obviously that global economic trend formations are stipulated by collective subconscious (by ethnical psychology). Lack on collective level the rational logic concerning economical activity (as a consequence — military or political ones) means: there is a natural process — ethno-genes [4]. Pay attention on the fact that war compulsorily leads to energy leaving processes acceleration and diversification for any participants. For most vulnerable in this context (world market donor) there is uniquely economical suicide. Thus, natural experiment 2014 is already possible to define as artificial attempt to sever super-ethnos within itselfwhich:
- has unlocked internal hidden energy enormous volumes;
- has encouraged energy streams intensification and acceleration within stable world schemes of exchange;
- has not changed energy distribution scheme between world economic poles (in anyway final recipient gets energy but donor — loses).
Therefore experiment confirms that super-ethnos is an energetic independent system and can be used as an invariant for World economy during transition period. To a certain extent it witnesses in favor of assumption that World economy is super-ethnoses interrelation implication. So, super-ethnos model can be used as a basis for effective forecast in modern World economy conditions.
References:
1. Dvoynykh. K. E. Paradigma ekonomicheskogo vampirizma [The paradigm of economical vampirism], Law literature, -Odessa, Ukraine. - 2007.
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2. Toffler E. Shok budustchego [Future shock]. - Publishing house AST, - Moscow, Russia. - 2002.
3. Gumilev L. N. Etnogenes i Biosfera Zemli [Ethnogenes and biosphere of the Earth]. - Azbuka-klassika, - S.-Petersburg, Russia. - 2002.
Gorodetskaya Olga Stanislavovna, Podolsk Institute (branch) of Moscow State University of Mechanical Engineering (MAMI), Candidate of Economics, Associated Professor, The Department of Enterprise economics and administration in machine manufacturing E-mail: [email protected]
Analysis and projection of economic activity in Russian machine manufacturing
Abstract: The article presents the results of the analysis of entrepreneurship in machine manufacturing in the Russian Federation and its elements (organizational and innovating potential, entrepreneurial environment, social and economic effectiveness). The method of entrepreneurship risk is evaluated in machine manufacturing. Risk evaluation is based on descriptive model methods of extrapolation and the method of minimal sum of squares calculations is applied. Results can be used in the macroeconomic of Russia and regional entrepreneurial regulation.
Keywords: analysis of projection of economic tendencies, entrepreneurship, projection of economic tendencies in machine manufacturing.
In the course of reformation of the national industry, machine manufacturing commercial enterprises conduct a necessary complex modernization of production giving an important role to the improvement of control systems and technical re-equipment in the conditions of sharp market competition. Not only analysis of economic activity, but also a specially developed method of projection of economic processes in the industry as a main goal of optimization of entrepreneurial machine manufacturing risks is required for the effective solution of problems of entrepreneurial activity in the Russian machine manufacturing sphere [1, 84], [2, 48]. It is determined by the fact that machine manufacturing is one of the main industries of the economy that define the development of other complexes such as fuel and energy, chemical, oil and chemical, transport and construction [3, 100]. Thus, the most important specific indicators of gross domestic product in Russia, and, consequently, the competitiveness of the manufactured product, depend on the development level of the machine manufacturing industry. The machine manufacturing includes a complex of fields of processing industry that performs machine manufacturing and includes general machine manufacturing, transport machine manufacturing, radio-electronics, electro-technical and instrumentation manufacturing industry, agricultural machine manufacturing, machine tool manufacturing and energy machine manufacturing [1, 86]. According to statistical data, the peak of entrepreneurial activity in the Russian Federation was the highest in 2010. For instance, in 2009 it accounted for 66,8 % compared with the previous year; in 2010 it accounted for 115,2 % compared with the previous year; in 2011 it accounted for 111,1 % compared with the previous year; in 2012 it accounted for 102,7 % compared
with the previous year; in 2013 it accounted for 96,6 % compared with the previous year [6].
According to the national statistics, the Russian machine manufacturing industry will increase the production along with the foreign firms. It is confirmed by forecasts and evaluations of BusinesStat: by 2018, the volumes of import of ready metal processing machines will grow by 4,7 % per year at average. The national manufacturers will also increase the production. In 2018 the level of production of metal processing machines will be about 5,8 thousand pieces of ready equipment. The demand for hydro-manipulators production for the forest management in the Russian Federation rises every year, which is proved by the replacement of existing outdated equipment and increase in the volume of forest harvesting in the Russian Federation. The following regions take the leading role in the structure of forest harvesting in the Russian Federation: Khabarovsk region, Primorsky Krai, Irkutsk region, Arkhangelsk region and the Republic of Karelia. The average cost of a ready item is 800 000 rubles; the planned number of personnel is 150 people and the volume of main project investment is 100 million rubles. [9]
In recent years, the possibility of industrial risks in the management of machine manufacturing entrepreneurial activity has taken significant place among other entrepreneurial spheres in the industrial activity due to production growth. With regard to this reason, one of the first places is taken by machine manufacturing after electric energy, chemical and metal industries, including machine tool and automobile manufacturing [3, 101].
To put Russia back on the world market as one of the
leaders of aircraft industry by 2015, it will require $20 billion,
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