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AN ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTS
УДК 519.816:332.145 Vadim A. Lomazov,
Doctorate of Physical and Economic Science, Associate Professor, Professor, the Department of Informatics and information Technologies, Belgorod State Agricultural Academy
E-mail: [email protected]
Viktoria S. Nehotina,
Assistant of the Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Belgorod University of co-operation, Economics and Law E-mail: [email protected]
The problem of development of models and methods for carrying out the assessment of socio-economic projects is examined. The approach to informational simulation of project status on the basis of the determined, statistical and linguistic description of separate indexes is offered. A hierarchical procedure of calculation of project's resulting figure is developed.
Keywords: socio-economic project, information model, project evaluation.
Вадим Александрович Ломазов,
д.ф-м.н., доц., профессор кафедры информатики и информационных технологий, Белгородская государственная сельскохозяйственная академия Эл. почта: [email protected]
Виктория Сергеевна Нехотина,
ассистент кафедры информационных систем и технологий, Белгородский университет кооперации, экономики и права Эл. почта: [email protected]
ОЦЕНКА РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ
СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ
ПРОЕКТОВ
Рассмотрена проблема разработки инструментальных средств (моделей и методов) информационной поддержки оценки социально-экономических проектов, реализуемых органами регионального и муниципального управления. Предложен подход к информационному моделированию состояния проекта на основе детерминированного, статистического и лингвистического описания отдельных показателей. Разработана иерархическая процедура расчета результирующего показателя проекта.
Ключевые слова: региональный социально-экономический проект, информационная модель, оценка.
Formulation of the problem and objective of the work
Socio-economic development of regions is one of the priority tasks of state social policy of the Russian Federation and it is carried out, as a rule, on the basis of regional social and economic programs which consist of several projects. The regional social and economic projects corresponding to different spheres (education, health care, culture, sports, employment, social support of people, etc.), certainly have their own peculiarities, however existence of common goal (sequential increase of standard of living) and the general conditions of implementation (regional level) allow to refer these projects to one class.
The problem of evaluation of projects that present themselves as important instruments of regional development is actual not only at the initial stage of choosing of the most effective projects, but also at the subsequent stages of adjustment of earlier made decisions on the basis of project progress monitoring. The accounting and analysis of large number of indexes which characterize regional socio- economic projects are impossible without application of methods of economic-mathematical simulation and the modern information technologies.
Widely-used methods of project evaluation are more oriented on business projects (for example, [1-4]) and don't consider a row of features of the socio- economic sphere connected to existence of not only the quantitative, but also qualitative (linguistic) characteristics of projects that requires an application of artificial intelligence theory approaches.
The General scheme of the procedure of evaluation of projects
The main purpose of the research is a development of theoretical provisions that may become a foundation for information and algorithmic support of an assessment of regional socio-economic projects.
An estimation of regional socio-economic projects within competition of projects is based on an objective data of characteristics of a considered project transformed by means of special evaluation scales to indexes (measured in points) and expert opinions generalized with a using of the relative significance of private indexes. The estimation diagram as procedures of determination of a resultant index of regional socio-economic projects as a result of processing of initial project information is shown in figure 1.
Fig. 1. The General scheme of the procedure of the estimation of regional socio-economic projects
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Formation evaluation scales and definition of global assessments of individual performance
A collection of initial information about regional socio-economic projects is carried out on the basis of data that is provided in the request of the organization, implementing the project, and also on the basis of independent sources that the scientific organizations and the certain experts who conduct the audit might be.
Within the initial description of characteristics of regional socio-economic projects we will consider the three types that correspond to different methods of the accounting of uncertainty which is inevitable in the analysis of projects:
1) type D - the determined characteristics that don't consider uncertainty of properties of projects;
2) type S - the statistical characteristics reflecting probable nature of uncertainty;
3) type L - the linguistic characteristics that have verbal values and reflecting unsharpness of concepts, used in case of project evaluation.
A formation of the evaluation scales, that allow to transfer from values of characteristics of the project to their dimensionless point indexes is made by the persons that organize competition of projects, proceeding from the purposes of regional social and economic programs.
Methods of creation of point indexes are various for different types of characteristics of regional social and economic projects. For the determined characteristics the D transition to the discrete (point) Dx ^ Db values is carried out on the basis of check of accessory of values of the characteristic x to evaluation intervals: Db = j for x e Ij.
In that specific case a uniform scale of conversion when evaluation intervals are equal on length, the discrete point value can be calculated by the formula:
Dt =
achievement by value x its best (in the case the greatest) xmax values (Dx = xmax) point value of this characteristic of Db also accepts the greatest possible value n (Db = n). In case of the minimum value of this characteristic (Dx = xmn) Db also accepts minimum possible value 0 (Db = 0).
Stochastic properties of regional socio-economic projects are connected with an influence of arbitrary factors on results of implementation of regional socio-economic projects and are characterized by mathematical expectation of M(x) and dispersion ct2(x). Possible limits of variation of these quantities are Mmm(x), o-2mm(x) and M max (x), CT2 max (x), as well as they are set earlier by the minimum requirements and the greatest possible reference values. The relative significances of mathematical expectation of M(x) and Pr(x) accuracy (understood as value, reverse Pr(x) dispersions = (ct2(x)) -1) the stochastic characteristic of S are described by weight factors of au «2:
a + a2 =1, ai, a2 > 0
Generally a transition from stochastic characteristics of S to the discrete (point) Sx ^ Sb values is calculated as follows: Sb = j for (aiM(x) + a2 Pr(x)) e Ij
In the case of uniform scale transformation, this formula takes the form:
n(M(x) - Мm
(x)) n(Pr(x) - Prm ■ + a,
(x))
where square brackets designate an operation of taking of an integer part of a number, n - the maximum number of points for the considered characteristic; x, Xmax and Xmin - transformed, maximum value and the minimum value of the characteristic. Value of Xmm is set by requirements of conditions of projects' competition and corresponds to the best of theoretically possible (as a rule, almost unrealizable) standart project. In case of
' Mn» (X) - Mrnta (X) 2 Prm>x (*) ~ Prmta (x)
Linguistic description of the particular characteristics of regional socioeconomic projects is connected with the specifics of the social sphere where a row of concepts doesn't allow the quantitative measurement. In this case the mathematical tools of the linguistic analysis [5] according to which the linguistic variable is a tuple:
Lx = < X, G, 6E(X), U, M >
in which X - the name of a linguistic variable; G - the syntax rule that generates names of verbal (linguistic) values of a linguistic variable; 0(X) - term set (a set of the verbal values generated by the syntax rule G); 6E(X) - basic term set (part of a term set; the remaining terms generated by the syntax rule, are built of the 6E(X) elements by means of a finite set of linguistic modifiers and sheaves); U - the universum in which indistinct sets appropriate to terms of a linguistic variable (an indistinct set are defined expresses sense of specific verbal value); M - the semantic rule which is setting sense of each term from d(X), i.e. M:6(X)
^ Fuzzy(U), where Fuzzy(U) - a set of all indistinct subsets of U. To each verbal value of a linguistic variable (Te6(X) term) the semantic rule M puts in compliance the semantic contents expressing it an indistinct set of M(T).
It will be assumed that the verbal linguistic variable values associated with the numerical (U - a segment of the valid straight line [xb x2]) and thus limit ourselves by trapezoidal membership functions. In this case, the indistinct set supp M(T) is completely defined by two segments: the bearer of the an indistinct set supp M(T) and its kernel ker M(T). Then the transition from linguistic characteristics to discrete (point) Lx ^ Lb values is calculated as follows:
Lb = j for (ajS/(x)+ a2Sr(x) + + a3Kl(x) + a4Kr(x)) e Ij
where Sl(x), Sr(x) are the left and the right ends of a segment of supp M(T), Kl(x), Kr(x) - the left and the right ends of a segment of ker M(T), and al, a2, a3, a4 - the normalized non-negative weight factors (aj + a2 + a3 + a4 = 1, al, a2, a3, a4 > 0), reflecting the relative importance of values Sl(x), Sr(x), Kl(x), Kr(x) for creation of a point assessment of the linguistic characteristic x.
The approach allowed to construct the dimensionless discrete coding of measure of values of regional socioeconomic projects that is necessary for the subsequent formation of the generalized indexes of projects.
The formation of generalized and outcome indicators projects
Reduction of number of the considered regional socio-economic policy (RSEP) parameters can be implemented at the expense of combining and eliminating duplication of related characteristics of the project (Figure 2.).
The basis for abbreviation can be:
- the revealed statistical (correlative) dependences between values of characteristics ([1,2]);
- the correlations defined in case of mathematical simulation of processes of change of characteristics ([6-9]);
- opinions of experts ([2,5]).
Thus, if at the next stage of procedure
of abbreviation in case of detection of the considerable communication between indexes of one level a certain distinction of their values is marked, it is expedient (without discarding "duplicating" indexes) to integrate these indexes in one generalized index (an additive weighted
x - x
max mm
parameter parameter parameter parameter parameter
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
average of private indexes) of a following level. The sequence of stages of abbreviation (group) of indexes of regional socioeconomic projects is defined by increase of complexity of the carried-out analysis and increase in a level of involvement of experts.
The subsequent (also hierarchical) procedure of formation of the generalized indexes of projects is based on likeness according to the social (economic) contents and has standard character (for example, [10]). The used weight factors of private indexes can be defined on the basis of methods of expert estimation, for example, by means of Saati's scale and degree calibration of function of preferences. The difference in the formation of intermediate generalized indexes of regional socio-economic projects and a final resultant index is that at the last stage by way of experts in case of determination of weight factors there are not specialists in the subject area of the project, but officials of regional authorities, organizing a design competition.
Hierarchical estimation procedure of regional socio-economic projects is effective not only because of the possibility of providing accounting projects of different characteristics, but also in terms of implementation of the calculating process as it allows to make parallel computings of separate indexes.
Using the results of the evaluation of projects
The main objectives of the evaluation of regional socio-economic projects are:
- a selection of the most appropriate (from a set of options) project for the subsequent implementation [1,2];
parameter 1.N
Statistical analysis
Analysis on the basis of mathematical simulation of processes
Expert analysis
- decision-making on adjustment of a course of execution of already imple-mentable project [10].
In the first case it is expedient to select some projects that are close to a resultant index or to construct a set of Pareto-opti-mal projects on the generalized indexes and to leave a final choice to the persons that make the decisions.
In the second case the estimated data of the project progress represents only a part of information necessary for a decision-making. The second part of necessary information is made by the data on possible diagrams of adjustment. A development of the formalized representation of a combination of these data and procedures of their processing represents the separate task which deserves a special reviewing.
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