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MODERN RUSSIA: IDEOLOGY, POLITICS, CULTURE AND RELIGION
2016.10.001. R. SHAFIEV. ECONOMY UNDER SANCTIONS. NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES AND POSITIVE OPPORTUNITIES // "Strategia Russia", Moskva, 2015. P. 15-24.
Keywords: economy, sanctions, import, export, banks, trade, manufacturing, budgetary expenditures, investment, crisis, recession, capital flight, structural deformation, imbalances and disparities, the fuel and energy sector, mineral resources, GDP, credit ratings, macroeconomics, a recession.
R. Shafiev,
Dr. Sc. (Economics), Professor, Department of World Economy, Russian University of Economics named after Plekhanov, the Russian Federation Civil Service Adviser of 1st class
The sanctions have changed the industrial policy of the country. The investment climate became worse, and the Russian economy was named the least attractive for investment. However, there are sectors where sanctions have had the effect of growth. Prohibitions stimulate the state on the development of its economy. Also, the existing conditions promote disappearance of weaker actors from the market, which enables stable companies to strengthen their positions.
Despite the economic difficulties, Russia managed to avoid a recession in 2014. Economic growth amounted to 0.6%, partly
due to the effect of growth in transport at 1.3% in 2013. Response measures helped to stabilize the economic situation, taken by the Government and the Bank of Russia in due time. In November, there was a transition to a floating exchange rate of the ruble, as well as measures were taken to support the financial sector, including additional capitalization of banks in December. Another favorable factor was associated with the compensating effect of the decline in imports that helped mitigate the impact of deteriorating foreign trade conditions. At the same time a significant weakening of the ruble and trade restrictions have given impetus to a number of small manufacturing industries.
At the same time operational data indicate that there was recession in the 1st quarter - the beginning of the 2nd quarter. GDP decreased by 0.6% in April 2015, after falling of 0.4% in March, 0.6% in February and 1.6% in January, writes R. Shafiev.
The growing recession, of the GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2015 was due to the fall of the dynamics of sectors of industrial production, transport and the financial sector primarily. Dynamics of export taxes, which supported the GDP in the first months of the year, began to have a negative impact on GDP. There was substantial increase in budget expenditures on defense in the 1st quarter of 2015. However, the dynamics of these costs become negative in April. It has become one of the factors of reducing the output in the engineering industries. However, Federal State Statistics Service data on investment are quite favorable. The reduction of import of investment goods from abroad occurs abruptly. The output of engineering industries and construction materials identified the total reversal of the positive trend in the industry in April. The outflow of capital from the private sector also has accelerated, and reached about $12 billion to $8 billion in March, which pointed to the risks of accelerating decline in the 2nd quarter of 2015. Ukrainian crisis is not to blame, the researcher notes. The fall in oil prices and the tightening of sanctions began in late July 2014, so their impact on the economy began to be felt only
in the last quarter of 2014. Therefore, its impact will be more perceptible in 2015 and in 2016.
Negative trends in the Russian economy, including the economic slowdown, have been observed over a number of years before Ukrainian crisis. If its GDP grew by 4.3% in 2011, then by 3.4% - in 2012, and it grew by only 1.3% in 2013. The author sees the main reason for it in the accumulation of structural deformations, distortions and imbalances which have resulted from a liberal economic policy, designed on the patterns of the IMF. R. Shafiev identifies four major strains and imbalances. The first is the exaggerated role of the fuel and energy sector and the degradation of the manufacturing industry caused by the orientation of the economy on the export of oil, gas and other minerals. The second is the narrow focus of energy exports to Europe with underdevelopment of other geographical directions of foreign trade. The vast majority of new oil and gas projects have been implemented in cooperation with European and American companies. The third is a intensive build-up of foreign borrowing by Russian banks and companies on the background of large-scale outflow of capital from the country. And finally, the fourth, resulting from the previous two, is a discrepancy of foreign policy course (an attempt to overcome the dominance of the West in the international arena and to construct a multipolar world, in cooperation with the BRICS countries) to foreign economic relations (orientation of financial and trade flows to the West). The model of economic growth, based on the expansion of energy exports and other types of mineral raw materials, has worked in the globalizing world economy and the continued growth of global oil prices, however, completely exhausted itself after the global financial and economic crisis, 2008-2009, highlights the researcher.
It is necessary to develop a long-term program of structural reforms as soon as possible, clearly marking its priorities, objectives, sources of funding, milestones, and to provide for an active role of state regulation. The effectiveness of such an approach is proved by numerous examples of countries in East
and Southeast Asia, including South Korea and China. It is impossible to imagine a state which is not built into the system of world economic relations in the global economy. However, the degree of relationship may be different. This dependence on the world can be reflected in a number of areas in Russia, including provision of the country with strategic goods (food, medicine, technology, components for cars). The main partners in the country's trade balance are: the EU countries (42.2% of imports and 53.8% of total exports), APEC (34.3% of imports and 18.9% of exports); The EAEC (13% of imports and 14% of exports).
The largest of them are China and Germany. The dependence is not uniform in the Russian regions of the economic sanctions of the West. There are several areas where the industry can expect some decline. The sanctions for the Russian oil and gas companies on the export of technologies can complicate maintenance of the current rate of resource extraction on dwindling oil fields in West Siberia. But steel companies and mining companies can get the benefit of the introduction of sanctions.
The author of the abstract - V. Schensnovich
2016.10.002. O. KARPOVICH. ON THE FEATURES OF RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICAL POSITION IN THE MODERN WORLD // "Vestnik Rossiyskoy natsii", Moscow, 2015. № 6. P. 206-214. The abstract of the article.
Keywords: globalization, global economic space, convergence, economic and cultural integration, knowledge economy, innovative upgrade, geopolitical conflict, geopolitical competition, socio-demographic component, population decline, the postbipolar world.
