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Dzhanabi Y.S. — What in store for the Iraqi-American bilateral relations with Biden in the White House? // Мировая политика. - 2022. - № 2. DOI: 10.25136/2409-8671.2022.2.35850 EDN: MWMMKC URL: https://nbpublish.com'library_read_article.php?id=35850
What in store for the Iraqi-American bilateral relations with Biden in the White House? / Что ждет ирако-американские двусторонние отношения с Байденом в Белом доме?
Джанаби Я<уб Сабих
аспирант, кафедра восточных языков и лингвокупьтурологии, Нижегородский государственный
университет им. Н. И. Лобачевского
603005, Россия, Нижегородская Область область, г. Нижний Новгород, уп. Ульянова, 37
Статья из рубрики "Мировая политика"
DOI:
10.25136/2409-8671.2022.2.35850 EDN:
Дата направления статьи в редакцию:
01-06-2021
Аннотация: Цель исследования: попытаться разобрать наиболее важные варианты или возможные ожидаемые сценарии иракско-американских отношений. А также обсудить важные вопросы, которые могут обострить или уменьшить уровень разногласий между Вашингтоном и Багдадом. Методология исследования: исследование проводилось на основе описательного и аналитического метода, а также на основе учебной программы по истории, в которой перечислены исторические предпосылки различий между Ираком и Америкой. Проблема исследования: Вашингтон и Багдад связаны очень сложными и переплетающимися двусторонними отношениями, поскольку Вашингтон и Багдад в последние годы стремились к сотрудничеству для достижения двусторонних интересов. В то же время две страны столкнулись с рядом острых проблем, которые помешали этой цели, в основном отказом от вывода войск США из Ирака и продолжающегося развития отношений Багдада с Тегераном, в дополнение к продолжающемуся преследованию интересов США в Ираке, особенно военные и экономические цели. Пределы исследования: во-первых, это пространственные пределы исследования Ирака и США. Важность исследования: исследование основано на важности и положении Ирака на Ближнем Востоке. Следовательно, события, происходящие внутри Ирака, повлияют на международную ситуацию. Кроме того, существует тот факт, что Соединенные Штаты
являются сверхдержавой, и поэтому стратегия и позиция, которую они займут, будут иметь далеко идущие последствия для будущего Ирака. Результаты исследования: администрация Байдена будет стремиться начать новый американский подход к Ираку; возможно, таким же образом, как он добивался во время пребывания на посту вице-президента в администрации Обамы. Он может также дать политическому реализму явное преимущество в этом новом подходе, потому что политическая ситуация в Ираке сегодня полностью отличается от того, что было тогда.
Ключевые слова: Ирак, Байден, конфликт, Выборы в США, Иракские дела, Иранское влияние, Стратегия США, Шиитские державы, Суннитские державы, Курд
Introduction :
The recent US elections 2021 were keenly watched in Baghdad-Ш as Iraqi authorities began to track the proceedings' development step by step for three primary reasons, the first of which being the US-Iranian confrontation on Iraqi soil. The matter of the US military presence in Iraq is the second, and the "ISIS" group is the third; especially given the Iraqi people's belief that the ruler of the White House is the only one who can save them from their recent woes. As a result of what happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein's government collapsed in 2003, when opposition parties with an Islamic religious leaning very similar to the Iranian Wilayat al-Faqih system seized control of the reins of power and sensitive positions in the Iraqi state.
these aspects quickly developed qualities that reinforce and feed on each other. Despite the fact that the new system in Iraq has been in place for over two decades, the contents of the proper transition of the discourse of democracy are still absent owing to the continuous confrontation between the US and Iran.
The American-Iranian struggle in Iraq began on March 9, 2003, during the initial years of the
occupation of Iraq However, until the departure of US President George W. Bush and the accession of Barack Obama, American influence remained in control, as the Obama administration in Iraq was distinguished by weakness and a gradual disengagement from Iraq until the pullout of US military personnel. Iranian influence was abundantly visible here, and Iran gained a foothold, with Iranian fingerprints on all governments founded since the retreat of American troops.
As a result, the presence of Iraq on this scenario has the most significant ramifications, turning it into a battleground between the two parties, especially given the ongoing internal conflicts. The pragmatic duality between all actors in the political scene is shown in the American policy steps towards Iraq in the context of the current conflict with the Iranian regime, and the multiplicity of its dimensions came in the form of profound strategic shifts, as evidenced by US President Donald Trump's decision to finish the game. The dualism that the Americans and Iranians practiced on Iraqi soil from April 2003 to May 2018, as well as the US decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with one side in June 2018 and reimpose crippling financial and oil sanctions on the other.
Trump claimed that the agreement failed to address Iran's ballistic missile program and proxy war in the region, and that the terms of the agreement's expiration would allow Iran to pursue nuclear weapons in the future, as well as the practice of economic warfare and severe sanctions against Iran, which have had a significant impact on and weakened Iraq . As a result, it was placed on Iraq's political decision-maker, who is the country's lone Shiite
political actor, to adapt to this double system and adopt a candid stance on the conflict if they wanted to keep America's security, political, and economic aid. Iran, on the other hand, has used all of its tools in Iraq to thwart any attempt to free the country from its grip, particularly since the results of the battle with "ISIS" and the results of the 2018 elections imposed a new reality, leading it to believe that its intrusion in Iraq has become an unavoidable reality. The most significant element in bringing Iraq into the equation of the US-Iranian war is its support for the Iraqi government's inability to meet its proclaimed requirements of being impartial between the two parties in the war. As a result, the objective indicators of the bilateral encroachment were linked to all parties' understanding that the paths of the situation in Iraq are not solely determined by the rules of the political game, but also by a parallel weapon organically linked to the Iranian actor that has been publicly branded; it is still too early to judge the outcomes of the American conflict based on such data. It is unrealistic to believe that this war will be settled anytime soon, which indicates that certain parts of the double system will stay inexorably present to the end, and that new rules will not allow any one side to run the system of Iraq alone.
Iraq is divided over Biden
It is hoped that the leaders of the quota system and sectarian parties, both Kurds and Shiites, will view the arrival of the Joe Biden into the White House in an optimistic and reassuring light. Given the political division in Baghdad over Biden, the Shiite forces, which have strong relations with Tehran, see Joe Biden's arrival as useful in calming the conflict with Iran. As the Shiite forces see it, if Iran and the United States move towards negotiations, it will be a step towards progress in Iraq. Especially since the problems in US-Iraqi relations are connected to US-Iranian relations, it's understandable that an escalation between Tehran and Washington may lead to more instability for Iraq because the country is stuck between the two. Washington, however, views Iraq as supplemental to its policy towards Iran. As a result, many Iraqi officials consider Trump's election loss the beginning of a new era. There is also a conviction that the Iraqi-American relations, which had deteriorated during the Trump regime, will be strengthened again with the advent of Biden. These groups believe that the pressure on Iran will diminish during the Biden era and that the nuclear deal, which was suspended under Trump, will be returned to the negotiation table. In such a case, the belief that Iranian influence in Iraq would be reduced would be
naïve. To the contrary, Iran will find more room for operations. J4-
As for the Kurdish position, the optimism among Iraqi Kurds regarding Biden stems from previous experiences with the Obama administration. In addition, the expected support for decentralization is greater in Iraq and therefore the issue of former President Donald Trump's harsh policy regarding Tehran does not concern the Kurds much. They are waiting for Biden to pursue a completely different policy from Trump vis-à-vis the relationship with Turkey. Currently, Ankara believes that the upcoming changes in international relations will provide Turkey with the opportunity to become a regional actor and extend its influence, directly and indirectly, in the region. This happened in Iraqi Kurdistan in light of the entrance of the Turkish army into the region, penetrating more than 30 km past the border.
Turkish drones continue to monitor and kill militants and civilians alike .J5-
Since the emergence of the Islamist Justice and Development Party, the Kurdistan Regional Government's relations, along with the other Kurdish organizations in Syria and Turkey, with Turkey have deteriorated. While the Kurds found that the Trump administration had sided with Turkish interests at the expense of their own, they hope that the new US administration will not abandon them and not give in to Turkish pressure. As for the
reactions of the Sunni forces, they were less homogenous regarding Biden's ascension to power, with some of them preferring Trump .J6!
Because former US President Donald Trump was able to deal harshly with Iran's Shiite parties and arms in Iraq, through canceling the benefits that the Obama administration had provided to Iran, whether related to trimming its tendrils extending outside its international borders or by assassinating Iranian General Qasem Soleimani: the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Furthermore, Trump greatly favored Jerusalem and by leaving the nuclear deal agreement, Trump placed one of his top priorities on ending the Persian national project, even going so far as to impose further sanctions on the Wali al-Faqih
regime and its armed militias. ^
Others Sunnis still welcomed Biden's victory and called on him to implement his plan of dividing Iraq into three regions and end the pro-militia "occupation" of Sunni cities.-^8
Regionalization of Iraq
Conversely, there are growing fears among Arab Shiites that Biden's arrival to power will pave the way for the implementation of what has been called the "Biden project to divide Iraq," which the president-to-be presented in a 2006 article for the New York Times, in which he talked about creating regions like the Kurdistan as a solution to Sectarian fighting at the time and further proposed decentralization for Iraq. Biden's proposal came in the following form: "The idea, as in Bosnia, is to preserve a unified Iraq through decentralization, giving each ethnic religious group: the Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shiite Arabs, the space to run their own affairs, while the central government takes charge of managing collective interests." Most of the Kurds and many Sunnis have welcomed the decentralization proposal in Iraq, despite its rejection by the Shiite majority.-^
Biden's crack team in Iraqi affairs
In contrast to the Trump administration, Biden and several members of his new team dealt closely with the intricate circumstances in Iraq in the years preceding and after the occupation of Iraq in. Among them are the new Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his Middle East advisor Barbara Lev, as well as Brett Mc Gurk (he served from 2015 to 2018 as a special presidential envoy for the international coalition to combat "ISIS"), who will act as coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa region in the US National Security Council. Several members of Biden's team dealt closely with the Iraqi situation, before the invasion and soon after. The current US President (Biden) visited Iraq twenty-four times between 2008 and 2011 and met with most of the leaders of the political process. When he was Vice President of then US President Barrack Obama, at that time Biden was in charge of Iraqi operations and he supervised the process of withdrawing
US forces From Iraq. J10
Consequently, observers believe that he is considered one of the most prominent American politicians to know the details of Iraqi political affairs. Biden personally worked on Iraqi operations, and has looked deeply into them throughout his membership in the US Senate and during his membership of several committees in relation to them. He had worked on
understanding the situation in Iraq, especially during the second half of the nineties. J11!
Biden had, as a senator in 2002, voted in favor of the decision to occupy Iraq during the George W. Bush era, while later he declared his opposition during a voting session in Congress in 2007 to the increase in the number of American forces, known then as "the
Surge," in Iraq.-^17
Biden took over a number of major tasks related to Iraq while he was Vice President for Barack Obama (from 2009 to 2017); the most important of which being the oversight of negotiations for the security agreement between Iraq and Washington, which ended with its approval, and the complete withdrawal of US forces from the country in 2011. It can be argued that from this point, among other points in time, was the beginning of the hasty US exit from Iraq and Biden was one of its main contributors, making room for Iran to fill the void left by the absence of American forces. This happened during the term of an Iraqi Prime Minister and ally of Iran (Nuri al-Maliki), whose policy was characterized by stark sectarianism, through with he practiced political exclusion that ended in widespread devastation that befell the country in 2014. J13-
after the invasion of "ISIS", and its control of about 40 percent of Iraqi territory.-t14 In summation, Biden does not seem to want to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Trump in dealing with Iraq. He will try to sign a new agreement with Iran, which may lead to a return to the nuclear agreement with conditions, which may be the same or similar to what Trump demanded, which may have passed had it not been for Iran's unyieldingness and its unwillingness to compromise; the Iranians had delayed its approval until a new president arrived. In the event that the US-Iranian agreement is reached on a conditional return to the agreement, this will be in return for concessions that Iran must pay, which would likely preclude the Iranians maintaining their influence in Iraq, especially since the country will be awaiting an upcoming election. A post-Trump America wants to restore its interests in Iraq, which have been greatly weakened by Iranian influence that had been rebuffing any American presence in Iraq, especially after the killing of the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, General Qasem Soleimani, at the beginning of 2020 near Baghdad Airport. And it also was the result of US policies, especially in the Trump era, during which there was a lot of bark and little bite, and he (Trump) often expressed his desire to get rid of Iraq and its constant drag in American internal politics.
The Iraqi Security Situation
It will remain one of the important aspects in the American strategy, and we expect that Biden will work to continue American support for the Iraqi government in confronting terrorism and achieving security and stability. Despite the fact that the Iraqi apparatuses are divided amongst themselves between speculative and fearful that Biden will withdraw American forces from Iraq, Biden is not expected to withdraw the American forces completely from Iraq for fear of leaving a vacuum that Iran would likely fill, and he thus does not want to repeat what some consider a strategic mistake made by Obama that paved the way for Iranian control over Iraq and the emergence of the ISIS terrorist group. In light of the political and economic crisis that Iraq is going through, it is expected that Biden, at the request of the Iraqi government, will seek to support Iraq, but on terms defined by the White House, which is the necessity for the Iraqi government to achieve national accord, as well as limit the armed factions loyal to Iran and avert their threat to US interests in Iraq .-t^
Conclusions
Although it is too early to talk about President Biden's inclinations regarding Iraq during the coming age, and in light of the complexities of the crisis and the multiplicity of parties in the Iraqi case, it prioritising political solutions to military ones, and dealing with the Iraqi situation in partial isolation from the Iranian case , and will be keen to actuate the role of
NATO forces present nowfrom 500 to "around 4,000" personnel.-^16!
and promote regional and international initiatives related to the US strategy in Iraq. In parallel with ongoing anti-terrorism policies against ISIS, initiating the Iraqi government's
efforts to reform the security sector Trade, climate, etc ,[17]and actuate security arrangements to enhance the security of American forces in Iraq, the Biden administration will opt for legalizing the American presence in Iraq, strengthening intelligence and security efforts, and giving Iraqi security forces a greater role in the fight against ISIS and initiate strategic dialogue sessions with Iraq to reach clear partnerships and security agreements. The United States views Iran and its allies as a difficult variable in the security equation for Iraq, and therefore it will not exclude this matter from any future approach towards Iraq. The Biden administration will galvanize the human rights situation in Iraq by providing friable support for the protest movement and its demands, as well as supporting the efforts of the Iraqi government in holding early elections to achieve a form of political stability in the next stage and will make efforts to disentangle Iraq from its economic crisis by initiating the intervention of international economic institutions. Overall, the Biden administration will seek to formulate a new approach for the United States in Iraq, perhaps in the same form that he aspired to during his time in the Obama administration, while preserving the course the US political, economic and military priorities and giving political realism a clear margin in his approach. Because of the political circumstances today, it differs from what it was in the past. This means that the return of Biden and his team once again to dealing with the Iraqi situation does not necessarily mean a return to the same political behavior. He and his team indeed have extensive experience in dealing with issues in the Middle East, including Iraq, but the Middle East today is not the same as the one they dealt with when he was Vice President Obama, nor is Iraq, which will force them to
update their outlook and develop a new approach.^18! Библиография
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session = 1
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Данное исследование посвящено американо-иракским отношениям и перспективе их развития со сменой администрации Белого Дома под руководством нового президента Дж. Байдена. В действительности, актуальность избранной автором тематики не вызывает сомнений на фоне меняющихся внешнеполитических ориентиров США и усиления коалиционных тенденций на Ближнем Востоке, активного сотрудничества Ирака и Ирана по вопросам международной безопасности. Статья, представленная к публикации в издании «Мировая политика», отвечает всем требованиям, предъявляемым рукописям, направляемым в издательство Nota Bene, хорошо структурирована, в научном отношении опирается на передовую методологию исследования международных отношений и мировой политики, сравнительные и исторические методы интерпретации политических процессов. В практическом отношении статья имеет достаточно высокую значимость, поскольку в ней обозначены основные направления возможного сотрудничества новой администрации США, описаны перспективы и опыт предшествующих администрации Б. Обамы и Д. Трампа. Статья также имеет определенную научную новизну, которая характеризуется использованием зарубежных источников, ранее не актуализируемых в исследовательских работах такого рода. Список литературы представлен значительным количеством современных монографий, среди его позиций имеются также серьезные аналитические материалы, источники и статьи. Исследование выполнено на хорошем английском языке, содержит краткую, но емкую характеристику взаимоотношений США со странами Ближневосточного региона, включая Ирак, Иран и Турцию. Статья несомненно будет иметь значительный интерес среди читательской аудитории журнала «Мировая политика», специалистов, изучающих внешнюю политику США и политику администрации Дж. Байдена на ближнем Востоке. Несмотря на органичную структуру исследования, оно не лишено некоторых недостатков, например, в большей степени акцент в статье мог быть сделан на программных и доктринальных источниках внешней политики США. Не проанализированы Стратегии национальной безопасности государств, которые исследуются в рамках данной статьи. Не освещаются позиции ООН и НАТО по возможным способам урегулирования военных и конфликтных ситуаций в регионе. За рамками рассмотрения остались также меры противодействия террористическим угрозам и борьбы с террористическими организациями. Автором не используются прикладные методики анализа политических процессов, которые характеризуют возможные пути трансформации внутриполитической системы Ирака, перспективы развития демократии в регионе и внедрении западной модели построения капиталистического светского общества. Тем не менее, в статье содержится весьма обстоятельный анализ истории развития внешнеполитической линии при президентстве Б. Обамы, Д. Трампа и Дж. Байдена, и потому она может быть рекомендована к публикации без внесения каких-
либо значительных изменений. Статья представляет завершенное и самостоятельное исследование, которое отражает текущее состояние политической науки по исследуемому вопросу международных отношений.
The research is devoted to US-Iraqi relations and the prospects for their development with the change of the White House administration under the leadership of the new President J. Biden. In fact, the relevance of the topic chosen by the author does not raise doubts against the background of the changing foreign policy guidelines of the United States and the strengthening of coalition tendencies in the Middle East, active cooperation between Iraq and Iran on international security issues. The article submitted for publication in the publication "World Politics" meets all the requirements for manuscripts sent to the Nota Bene publishing house, is well structured, scientifically based on the advanced research methodology of international relations and world politics, comparative and historical methods of interpreting political processes. In practical terms, the article is of rather high importance, since it outlines the main areas of possible cooperation of the new US administration, describes the prospects and experience of the previous administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The article also has a certain scientific novelty, which is characterized by the use of foreign sources that were not previously updated in research papers of this kind. The list of references is represented by a significant number of modern monographs, among its positions there are also serious analytical materials, sources and articles. The study is conducted in good English and contains a short but succinct description of the US relations with the countries of the Middle East region, including Iraq, Iran and Turkey. The article will undoubtedly be of considerable interest among the readership of the magazine "World Politics", specialists studying US foreign policy and the policy of the Biden administration in the Middle East. Despite the organic structure of the study, it is not devoid of some shortcomings, for example, to a greater extent the emphasis in the article could be placed on the programmatic and doctrinal sources of US foreign policy. The strategies of national security of states, which are studied within the framework of this article, have not been analyzed. The positions of the UN and NATO on possible ways of resolving military and conflict situations in the region are not covered. Measures for countering terrorist threats and combating terrorist organizations also remained outside the scope of consideration. The author does not use applied methods of analyzing political processes that characterize possible ways of transforming the internal political system of Iraq, the prospects for the development of democracy in the region and the introduction of the Western model of building a capitalist secular society. Nevertheless, the article contains a very detailed analysis of the history of the development of foreign policy under the presidency of B. Obama, D. Trump and J. Biden, and therefore it can be recommended for publication without making any significant changes. The article presents a completed and independent research that reflects the current state of political science on the studied issue of international relations.
