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19Волатильность валюты как один из факторов, влияющих на инвестиционную
привлекательность государства Currency volatility as one of the aspects affecting the investment attractiveness of the
country
|| А московский
■p ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ ЖУРНАЛ
УДК 339.727.2 DOI 10.24411/2413-046Х-2020-10573 Горшенин Владимир Петрович,
доктор экономических наук, профессор, Российский экономический университет имени Плеханова, Россия, г. Москва
Першин Андрей Анатольевич, Российский экономический университет имени Плеханова, Россия, г. Москва
Gorshenin Vladimir Petrovich, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russia, Moscow
Pershin Andrey, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russia, Moscow
Аннотация. В условиях глобализации привлечение иностранных инвестиций в экономику страны является одним из определяющих факторов не только для ее роста, но и для определения ее места и роли в мировой экономике. Поэтому сегодня все больше инвесторов выбирают международные инвестиции, поскольку из-за описанного выше влияния глобализации инвестиционная привлекательность разных стран не одинакова.
Каждый рациональный инвестор предпочтет вложить деньги куда угодно только после принятия мер против риска. Поэтому, в случае международных инвестиций, в первую очередь это выбор страны, в которую следует инвестировать, а также всесторонняя оценка риска таких инвестиций. Для этого необходимо оценить влияние различных факторов на возможные результаты таких инвестиций.
Для анализа этих факторов и последующего выбора страны, как объекта инвестирования, необходимо оценить множество макроэкономических показателей,
отражающих потенциальный уровень воздействия данных факторов на международный инвестиционный проект.
Однако есть еще один показатель, который существенно влияет на принятие решений по международным инвестициям — волатильность валюты. Этот фактор напрямую влияет на инвестиционную привлекательность страны для потенциальных инвесторов со всего мира.
Таким образом, основная цель данного исследования заключается в изучении зависимости инвестиционной привлекательности государства от волатильности его валюты.
В рамках поставленной цели были сформулированы следующие исследовательские задачи:
- изучить основные факторы, влияющие на инвестиционную привлекательность государства;
- проанализировать основные драйверы волатильности валютного курса;
- определить их взаимосвязь
Гипотеза данного исследования заключается в том, что инвестиционная привлекательность государства напрямую зависит волатильности его валюты.
В рамках данной работы был использован метод количественного исследования для выявления текущего состояния международного инвестиционного рынка. Также, было произведено обобщение информации и ее синтез.
Гипотеза была доказана с помощью рассмотрения текущей ситуации на международном инвестиционном рынке, её анализа и сопоставления с волатильностью валютных котировок.
Summary. In context of globalization, attracting foreign investment in the country's economy is one of the determining factors not only for its growth, but also its place and role in the global economy. Therefore, today more and more investors choose international investments since due to the influence of globalization described above the investment attractiveness of different countries is not the same.
Every rational investor will prefer to invest money anywhere only after taking anti-risk measures. Therefore, in case of international investment, the first thing is choosing of the country to invest in and comprehensive risk assessment of such investment. For this purpose, it is necessary to assess the influence of various factors on the possible results of such investments.
For the analysis of these factors and the subsequent choice of the country as an investment object, it is necessary to evaluate a variety of macroeconomic indicators reflecting the potential level of impact of these factors on an international investment project.
However, there is another indicator that significantly affects decision-making on international investment — volatility of the currency. This factor directly affects the investment attractiveness of the country for potential investors from around the world.
Thus, the main goal of this study is to examine the dependence of the investment attractiveness of the country on the volatility of its currency.
Within the framework of the goal, the following research tasks was formulated:
- Study main country's investment attractiveness factors
- Analyze main drivers of exchange rate volatility
- Determine their interconnection
The hypothesis of the research is that investment attractiveness of the country directly depends on its currency fluctuation factor.
In the framework of this study quantitative research method was used to reveal the current state of the international investment market. Generalization of information as well as its synthesis was done.
The hypothesis was proved using the current situation in the international investment market and its comparison with the currency volatility factor.
Ключевые слова: международные инвестиции, валютные риски, инвестиционная привлекательность страны.
Key words: international investments, exchange rate risk, country's investment attractiveness.
Introduction
In context of globalization, attracting foreign investment in the country's economy is one of the determining factors not only for its growth, but also its place and role in the global economy, providing solutions to many socio-political aspects. Given the increased competition in the global financial market for, the formulation and solution of the risks analysis problem of foreign investment is relevant and has its practical significance [6].
Regardless of the level of economic development, any government seeks to attract foreign capital by obtaining direct and indirect effects from investments. That is why modern scientists say that the greatest role in attracting investment play macroeconomic factors, including the capacity of the internal market, currency stability, political stability, level infrastructure development, availability of skilled labor strength [3].
Findings
Obviously, every rational investor prefers investing money anywhere only after taking anti-risk measures [5]. Therefore, in case of international investment, the first thing to choose of the country to invest in. A competent choice of such a country allows to automatically reduce possible negative impact of many additional risk factors arising from international investment. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct such an assessment. These factors include [7]:
- Public policy
- Economic stability
- Labor mobility
- Market potential
- International relations
- Legislation and others
In order to analyze the influence of these factors on the economic conditions of investment, it is possible to use fundamental macroeconomic indicators. For their comprehensive assessment, one of the rankings of countries regarding the indicator of attractiveness for foreign investment was used. This rating was prepared by CEOWORLD magazine [8]. The rankings were based on different macroeconomic indicators including corruption, freedom of doing business, workforce, investor protection, infrastructure, taxes, quality of life, red tape, and others.
Table 1
Tbe World's best conn hies to invest in prepared by CEOWORLD magazine (for 2020)
link i Country * Total Score Economic Stability Government Policies Skilled Ыхшг s Faie Institutional Framework Education And i Research Market Pfltmtiil Trade Орсппк*
Singapore 64087 78.2 69.7? 66.46 99.61 97.04 95M 95.3
№lt*d B4.4W 72 66.74 65.46 98.38 963S 95.61 95
Kingdom
Poland аазбз 70.5 67.52 A5.36 95.9S 9542 95.J3 93.6
Indonesia 82.97S 70.Э 67.21 64.85 95.56 95.2 95.23 92.5
India 8Z4S1 70.1 66.96 64.63 95.3 95.01 93.67 91.7
Auitrilri 82.305 69.9 663 64.63 95.1? 94.95 93.67 91.5
Pflililipirtii 81.564 69.8 62M 64.61 94.?e 91 .Й6 92-34 91.3
United 81-2J2 «9.8 (■Ш «.59 94.73 94.51 92.79 91.2
States
Malaysia 61.021 69.5 60.64 63.89 94.71 9151 92.79 91.1
10 Ci«h 80.578 48.3 60.1? 63.0? 94.54 94.49 92.73 90.8
Republic
Soure: CEOWORLD magazine (URL: http&:Л ceo4™ld.biz-'202Q 02 17/^wldb-be&t-comme&4o-invest-iii-or-do bu£inesb-for-2020/)
Each category of this rating was analyzed and weighted in order to prepare common ranking.
Using these macroeconomic indicators, an investor can evaluate not only investment attractiveness of a particular country, but also predict their possible change in the near future. This is especially useful for foreign direct investment, as they are usually focused on the medium and long term. Therefore, understanding what is expected to be the state of the investing country can be extremely useful in making this decision. However, there is another indicator that significantly affects decision-making on international investment — volatility of the currency. This factor directly affects the investment attractiveness of the country for potential investors from around the world.
There are two ways of the exchange rate fluctuation analysis: fundamental approach and technical approach.
Technical approach includes identifying patterns in the past behavior of exchange rates. Fundamental approach includes reviewing of the main exchange rate movement drivers (e.g., growth, employment, trade balances, interest rates, etc.) to construct quantitative models of the exchange rate [1]. Fundamental approach includes analysis of the currency volatility driver and their interconnection with exchange rate return.
The most significant economic driver of currency volatility is the ratio of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. The supply and demand for foreign currency depends on many factors [2]:
- Political risk
- Transactions costs
- Shipping costs
- Demand for the currency
- Arbitrage opportunities and so on
These factors, if noticed in a timely manner, make it possible to make relatively accurate forecasts regarding the tendency of the exchange rate to change. Also, these factors can be used in assessing the choice of a country as an object of investment.
One of the main drivers of currency volatility is the so-called political risk. Sovereign governments have the right to regulate the movement of goods, capital, and people across their borders. These laws sometimes change in unexpected ways. This can affect the change in exchange rates dramatically [9].
One of the most striking examples of the impact of political risk on changes in exchange rates is Brexit process.
Figure 2. Currency volatility of the ranking leaders
Souice: open sources (URLlhttps: www.goo^tcom/)
It is clear that all of them have the same feature - relatively stable currency exchange rate. Thus, it can be said that today the country's attractiveness for foreign investments strictly depends on the dynamics of its exchange rate, as this indicator is associated with significant risks for investors.
Thus, it can be said that investment attractiveness of a country directly depends on many uncontrollable factors, which are often impossible to predict [4]. However, using ratings based on macroeconomic data and statistical indicators, it is possible to significantly reduce the level of possible negative impact from these factors and reduce the level of uncertainty in the conditions of international investments.
Московский экономический журнал №8 2020 Conclusion
In modern reality foreign investments have become a common thing in the global economy. The main reason of such situation is constantly developing globalization.
There are always many risks associated with the process of foreign investments arising from the specifics of this activity. One of the most significant risk factors that have a huge impact on activities related to foreign investment is currency fluctuations, due to which large currency risks for investors arises.
That is why today investors prefer investing in countries with stable currency exchange rates, as currency risk makes such significant influence on foreign investment activity and country's attractiveness for foreign investments strongly depends on the dynamics of its exchange rate, as this indicator is associated with significant risks for investors.
Список литературы
1. Barry Eichengreen and Arnaud Mehl How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future, Princeton University Press - November 7, 2017. — 272 p.
2. Bruce G. Resnick International Financial Management 7th Edition 2016. — 576 p.
3. Kenneth A. Froot Foreign Direct Investment, University of Chicago Press, 2018. — 312 p.
4. Jeff Madura International Financial Management 13th Edition, 2017.- 757 p
5. Voskanyan R.O., Vashchenko T.V. International financial management. Textbook // Publisher: Prospect, 2019. — 107 p.
6. Pershin A.A. Mezzanine financing as a modern tool of risk reduction in the international investment of innovative projects/ StudNet, 2020. 149-156 p.
7. Shvets S.K. Currency risk management of a non-financial company: methods and tools // Journal: Bulletin of the St. Petersburg State University of Economics, 2016. — 29-41 p.
8. World's Best Countries To Invest In Or Do Business For 2020, CEOWORLD magazine. [Electronic resource] / URL: https://ceoworld.biz/2020/02/17/worlds-best-countries-to-invest-in-or-do-business-for-2020//
9. The Economist [Electronic resource] / URL: https://www.economist.com
