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Ziujmuinm)Ji щЬтт^тЬ mhinbumqjiinmljmli hwiiwiuwpwh (Ziujmumm), bphm))
karapetyan.narek.9618@gmail.com
4^nnpn2 pmnhp Zmplmpjnighmmj^) pmqmpmlm)nipjni), ^png^limj)nipjni), Цшц^шш^ bm^uhp, Jnqm^m^lmmnp)hp, цЬшшЦш) цшршр:
Два вопроса фискальной политики в Республике Армения
Карапетян Н.Н.
Армянский Государственный Экономический Университет (Армения, Ереван)
karapetyan.narek.9618@gmail.com
Резюме: В статье рассматривается историческая адекватность фискальной политики развитие экономики и эффективности политики, которая связана с корнями накопления государственного долга в Республике Армения. Для оценки эффективности политики были изучены мультипликаторы налогов и расходов, которые в сочетании с проведенным анализом позволяли автору представить предложения по фискальной политике. Ключевые слова: Фискальная политика, процикличность, капитальные затраты, мультипликаторы, государственный долг.
Two Issues of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Armenia
Karapetyan N.N.
Armenian State University of Economics (Armenia, Yerevan)
karapetyan.narek.9618 @gmail.com
Abstract: The article discusses historical adequacy of government fiscal policy to the stance of the economy and the effectiveness of policy, which is related to the roots of public debt accumulation in the Republic of Armenia. To assess the effectiveness of the policy, tax and expenditure multipliers have been studied, which, combining with conducted analysis, let the author to introduce suggestions for fiscal policy. Keywords: Fiscal policy, procyclicality, capital expenditures, multipliers, public debt.
mmu)mtfjml^ p)pmgpnitf ZZ Цш-nm^mpnipjni)p, шршшр^) m2^mph^g hlnq g)gnitf)hp^) hmplmpjnighmmj^) qnpb^p)hp^ l^pmntfmtfp hmlmqqhini Iqmrnmln^ ^n2np цЬтшЦш) ^mpmp t Inimmlh]; 2017рф ^hp-ZZ Imnm^mpnipjm) ^mpmpp lmqUh]_ t
Jnm 6.2 dppq qnjmp, npp ZLU-^ 53.6%-) tp, hpp 2008p-^l Imnm^mpnipjm) ^mpmpp pl-qmtfh)p 1.7 Jjpq qn^mp tp' ZLU-^ 14.9%-p1: Uju hnq^mbnitf Jh)p ¿h)p p))mplnitf
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Imjni) l Imnm^mph^ t mpqjnp ^mpmp^ )hplm Jmlmpqmlp: Uhp p))mpltfm) mnmp-Цш) Imnm^mpnipjm) ^mpmb hmplmpjnigh-mmj^) pmqmpmlm)nipjni)) t, np^ hhmh-^m)p) t hhlg цЬтшЦш) ^mpmp^ phn^ )hplm Jmlmpqmlp: Znq^mb^ ^)q^pp hplni
1 Znq^mbniJ php^mfr ^^¿mlmqpmlm) mqp-
jnip t hm)q^um)niJ ZZ ф^)ш)u)hp^ )m]umpmpnipm) l Ч^¿шlшqpшlш) InJ^mh^ hpm^mpmlmb m^mjUtpp l qpm)g h^Jm) ^pm l hhq^)ml^ hm2^^pl)tpp:
mnm)gpmj^) hmpghp^ щшшши^ш)Ь[) t.
о
mpqjn p ^pm)nq hmplmpjnighmmj^) pmqm-pmlmlnipjnilp цЬтшЦш) ^mpmp^ lni-mmltfmtfp, hmdmqmrnmu^m) qnpb^p t hqh]_ mlmhumlm) Jmpmmhpm^hp)hp^) q^Jm-
a
qpm^hpi hmtfmp, l nppmln ^ t qnpb^p^ oq-mmqnpbnitfp mpqjni)m^hm mpmmp^) glgniJlhp^l hmlmqqh^ni, m)mhunipjni)p lmjni)mg)hini l hplmpmdmtflhm mlmhumlm) m^p ^pm)hini mhum)ljni)^g: Unmg^) hmpg^ qmrnmu^m)p Jh)p npn)niJ h)p m)mhumlm) g^l^ qfrppfr )lmmJmJp hmp-Impjnighmmj^) pmqmpmlm)nipjm) l bm^-uhp^ Imnnig^mbp^ ^hpinibnipjm) Jhg, ^иЦ hplpnpq hmpg^ qmrnmu^m)p hmplmpjnigh-mmj^) Jnqm^m^lmmnp)hp^ q)mhmmm-lm))hpniJ:
Unmg^) hmpg^ p))mplniJp hm)qniJ t hplni mu^hlm)hp^. hmplmpjnighmmj^) pm-qmpmlm)nipjm) q^ppp l цЬттЦт) bm^uh-
pp Imnntglmbpp: ßüümp^büp ш]u шuщblш-übpp:
Uu^t^m 1. ^pmgplmjpU ршцшрш^шЬш.-pjntüp U pjnigbp pmgmum^mü hm2lbl2pn-übpp: ^шшtfшlшüпpbü ZZ щЬшшЦшЬ pjntgbü щшЬщшЬЬ^ t pmgmum^mü mnmgümjpü hm2-lbl2pnp (pjntgbp hm2lbl2pn - lnlnuml^mp-übp) mü^m] lülbumlmü gplip ippppg (wbu ЯыЫшщшlnllbp 1): Pjntgbp pmgmum^mü ^2lbl2pnhbpp mlbimgpb^ bü щшpшp/Z'ЬU hmpmpbpmlgntpjntüp, npp m^p hшшlшщbu ü2mümlm^p t bqbi_ 2009 U 2014-2015pp' шЬшЬ-untpjmü uшшgшЫ mplmppü 2n^bpp щш]йшй-übpmJ: Um^mjü pjm^bü pmgmum^mü (mnmg-ümjpü) hm2lbl2pnübpp щшЬщшЬЬ^ t ümU lülbumlmü gpllp tfjntu фп^^т^:
Ц^щЬ^ 2006-2008pp, bpp шüшbuпLpJПLÜü, puш tnLpjmü, qbpшшpшgtfшü ipámlrnl tp qшülnLÜ, hшplшpJnL2bшшJpü pmqmpmlmünt-pjntüp 2mpntümlbg ¿bqnp Цшй ümjüpul ]pmünq ¿¿bqnpmgübinl pmgmum^mü ШПШ^-ümjpü hm2lbl2pnp: ^mpq шuшЫ щbшпLpJПL-üp щшpшp tp ibpgünttf ümU mjü ämlmüml, bpp шüшbuпLpJПLÜp U pjntgbp hmplmjpü ЬЦш-tfпLшübpp pmpAp шbüщbpnl m^rnl tpü: Фшц-lnpbü, pmqmpmlmüntpjntüp tfpü^ ^qümämtfp
ipuUnpb^ t щpngpllШJÜnLpJnLÜ. фп]шpbüp Imjntümgbni. шüшbuпLpJПLÜp ^пшшфЦш. Ilpntl lülbumlmü mülnttfpg, Цшй urnb^bb-^m. «pmpAplübp» ünшbgnq qjnpm^ áqümámtfp hmlmp, Imnmlmpntpjntüp 2mpni.ümlbL t щшЬщшй^ pjntgbp mnmgümjpü щшlшuпLp-
ip:
Uu^b^rn 2. Imnniglmbpmjpü ршцшрш^ш-
о
bm.pjm.hQ, pm^mpmp ¿шфп l t mpqjnp ^blni^nt-hp hbpqbmü' bhpmlmnmglmäpbb-pml: bü^bu ^mpbjp t lbuübL Ч-Ышщшшlbp 1-pg, 2009p-p hmlm2]mphmjpü áqümámtfp U 2015-2016pp püpmgpnttf, bpp ZZ шüшbuпLpJПL-üp lplpü qшülnLÜ tp mplmppü pmgmum^mü 2n^bpp mqqbgntpjmü übppn, hmplmpjntgb-lmjpü pmqmpmlmüntpjntüp hmljmgpliipli tp püqjmjünq ntqqlmbnLpjmtfp Z"bU pmgmum-lmü ábqpp ¿bqnpmgübim. hmlmp: Um^mjü ШJu цЬщрпШ mpqbü ]üqppübpp 2p2lntü bü ЦЬЩ^ pjm^bp &m]ubpp Imnntglmbp:
2015-2017pp pjntgbp Ibфpgpшp qbpmqmü-gbj_ t Цшщ^шш^ &m]ubpp lm^mpimlp, mj-upüfü щbшnLpJшü ibpgpmb фп]шnпLpJm.ü-übpp bmnmjbL bü püpmgpl &m]ubppü ülm-
qbgüb^nl Цшщ^шш^ Ыш^ubp/ZЪU üpgpü hш-pшpbpшlgnLpJnLÜp: UpuntüpnLÜ ZZ шüшbunL-
pJntüntü, npшbq шlühшJшnpbü büpшlшnnLg-lшЫpшJpü übpipntüübpp Ibфpgpш Цш, щшplnp/ZЬU hшpшpbpшllgnLp■Jшh шáph qmq-phpшg lJшщplnшL àш]uubpp ImiJÍipulj hluqbi bü, ШpIJnLÜpnLÜ щtшnLpJnLÜp pшlшpшp ^шфп1 übpipb^ büpшlшnnLglшЫpübpnLÜ, npp щЬшр t À.Uшlnpbp bplшpшâшülbш ш^^ hшüшp hplfbp U hüшpшlnpnLpJnLÜ mqmqm-Jntü щшpшpp lшJnLÜшgübLnL hшüшp2 (lb u ^Ышщшшlbp 2):
Фшuшnpbü, hшplJшpJnL2blnшJphршцшрш-ЦшЬт-pJnúiji ZшJшuшшünLlí щшlmfшlJшímpbh bpljm mqqmpJШlIp «Аш^п^Ь» t: Ьш]и, pшhp np npn2 âшlfшhшlJшhшmlшàhbpnLlJ' bqb¿ t щpngplJlШJph, U bplpnpi àш]uubpp fanmg-lшàpp mbuшhlJJnLhpg шhшpIIJnLhшlbmnLp-Jnihiibp t nihbgbi: Uju Á^^nqntlübpp шpIbü pul JшшüшÜ2nLJ bü щbшшlшü фn^шnnLp-jntüübpp oqшшqnpЫJшü hüшpшlnp шüшp-IJnLÜшlbшnLpJnLÜübpp3: UшlшJÜ шpIJnLÜш-lbmnLpJшü hшpgp шпш1ь^ Inülpbl püüшp-Intlp hшüqnLJ t hшplшpJnL2bшшJpü lnLLlp-щLplшmnpübppü:
Zшplшp]nL2tшш]pU pmqmpmlmüntpjmU шpq]ПLUшltшnLp]nLÜp. lnLlшpщplшшnpütp: ZшJшuшшüp шüшbunLpJnLÜnLl, nplbq ppш-
lшü U фpüшüuшlшü hшшlшЫübpp Jbg шпцш t ^qntl, pul фpüшüuшlшü 2nLlшü pшlшpшp ^npp U ppшglb^p ^t, IpшJшlшplшJpü ршцш-
pшlшÜnLpJnLÜp pÜInLÜшl ^t JpШJÜшl IpJш-
qpшlbLnL шpшшppü шüшbuшlшü 2nlbppü, U lшJnLÜшgünq Jшlpnшüшbuшlшü ршцшрш-lшünLpJшü pbnü pü^üntl t hшplшpJnL2b-шшJpü qnpbppübpp lpш: UшlшJÜ шJuшbq t, np lшpUnp ^üipp t шnш2шünLJ. bpb IpшJш-lшplшJpü pшqшpшlшüпLpJшü фп^шügпL-JшJpü Jb^шüpqJp U шpIJПLÜpübpp l^upü
2 ^mplpp ImjntünLpjmü jp2mqqmjünpbü püim.ülm& umhJmünLJübppg Jb^ü ШJÜ t, np ^rnprnpp lшJnLÜ t, bpp ^brnnLpjni.üp nLüml t mjü u^mumplb^nL mnmüg Ыш^-ubpp ImnLglmbpntl tm^mü фnфn]unLpJnl.üübp Цшшш-pb|_nL шühpшât2mnLpJШü: Um, Imphntl büp, hümpmlnp t, bpp ibpgpmb ^mplpp nLqqlnLl t ütpIpnl.JшJpü frpmqpbpp, npnügpg hmlnLjgp qbpmqmügnLl t übpqpml-1шЫ ^mplpp lnlnumipnLjpp:
3ZшplшpJnL2tmшJpü pmqmpm^münLpjmü ^mllm^mü Am]nqnLlübpp U m^mqmjm.l ipmüg Imü^mpqb^lmü qnpbppmlmqlp lmupü lb u Zm^npjmüp U 4mpm^bl-jmüp hnilmbml (Акопян, Э. H., Карапетян H. H., 2018).
40,0
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20,0
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Q-àiiui/iiiinl/bp 1. ZblX ábqpp h u/bimiil/iiibpjmpbp цЪфрдршр, %
¿ш tíiu 21"иш p huij [Л 8шршЬш2р2шйш]11й ¿qüiuduní ¿qüiuduní
2017
■ PjiiighJi цЬф^пп, % ¿l.U-imí(iu9 iimiuUgp)
- = ^ - - J
Ь [i ш l¡ ш il ¿Ъ11 £Í hi^p, % —
— — Uiîiu g Uni] )i Ii цЬф )i g )i m, %
(ZhUЪщэр qhшhшшlIшh hшlIшp oqшшqnpàl¡Ъl tHodrick-Prescott фplшpp)
Q-àiiiii/iuinl/bp 2. Pjmph/i l[uiu[pinuii àiu/iiubpp ЬцЬфрдршр
'"Hifiglraiti Dïin-luijlmiÙD
ИЧ&ифиЬр^
ПИШ
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ч ш ii[ )i mili i b in [mi h¡i/¿l.U , % P]iii9h|i цЬф^пп, % ¿Ъи-nuí
(Uipjmpp ZZфpbшbиbЪpp bш_/uшpшpnLрnLb h Чp<íшl¡шqpшl¡шh ЦпйршЪ)
фпpЛ.шqpшшlшй h шЦшцЫфшЦшй hшйpпLj-pntü пpп2шlp ЦпйиЪйипш Цш, шцш hшplш-рр^Ъшшфй ршцшршЦшйпгэдшй lЪpшpЪp]ШL lшp&ppйЪpp шшpшA.ш]üпLp]ПLÜp рш^шЦшйрй Jtó t, püq npntü ш]й lЪpШpЪpПLÜ t йрш]й hшplшp]ПL2Ъшш]pü ^ршйр шqqЪgпLp]шü ¿ш-фрй, ш;ци пщцпърлшйр (Perotti 2002):
Ulшüqшpшp, hшplшp]ПL2Ъшш]pü ршцш-ршЦшйпър]шй ШpqJПLÜшlЪшПLp]ШÜ шишр-£шйр qüшhшшЪLПL hшüшp oqшшqпp&lпLJ Ъй hшplЪpp h &ш^иЪpp JпцшpщlplшшпpйЪpp gпLgшüp2ÜЪpp: ЧЪp2pййЪpи gntjg Ъй шш^ри, рЪ pjni^p hшplш]pü ЪlшüпLшüЪpp щЪшшЦшй &ш^иЪpp 1 Ирш^^ ш^р ршйр Ирш^^п^ t фпфп^пЫ! Ъplpp ZLU-ü npn-2шЦр дшйшйшЦш]рй hnppqnüntü: ЬрЪ йпц-шpцlplшшпpüЪpp pшgшpA.шl шpdЪpйЪpp tшlшйпpЪй Jtô Ъй 1-рд, цЪшп1р]пгйр ^ишш-hпpЪй ^pnq t йlшqЪgйЪL hшplЪpp
ш^Ъ^шдйЪ^ цЪшшЦшй &ш^иЪpp, h цшpшp йЪpqpшlЪLпl фрйшйиш^^Ъ^ Л^ш^^^шЬ цЪ-фрдршр: bl hшlшnшlp пppшй фпpp Ъй йпц-шpцlplшшпpйЪpp, ш]йршй ^пдЪ|р Ъй hшp-Цшррг^Ъшшфй qпp&ppйЪpp oqйпLрJшUp шйшЪип1р]пгйр Цш]пъйшдйЪ^п1 шnш2шplпLр-]ПLййЪpp:
Zшplшp]ПL2Ъшш]pй ünцшpщlplшшnpйЪ-pp ¿шфЪpp lЪpшpЪp]ШL шйшЪишqЪшйЪpp Цпцйрд ^риш шшppЪp qйшhшшшlшййЪp Ъй шplЪl_: Ц|ищЪи, риш ЛпpЪpш Pшppп]p, п^ цшшЪpшqüшlшй dшüшйшlшhшшlшЬпLÜ JпцшpщlplшшпpйЪpp hpüйшlшйпLÜ 1пш Ъй qpп]pй, йрй^^Ъп 2009р-рй, Ъpp ОршИшф ^p-^^qJp ЬpшqpшlпpпLÜ tp áqйшdшUpй hш-^qq^n^ пъц^шЬ цЪшшЦшй Ьш^иЪpp ш^Ъ^шдйшй фшрЪрр, hш2lшplЪpp hpüpntü qplЪg 1.6 ^шфр üпLLШpщplшшпpp (Perotti 2002):
ZmplmpjnLghmmjpU Unqmpm^lmmnpUh-pp qUmhmifmU fhpnqmpmUntpjmU f2mlfmU qnp&nrf mhnhip Uhpqpntf hU ntUhghi P]_mU-2mpp U ^hpniipU (2002), npnUp UUL-p hmp-lmpjntghimjpU tfnqmpmplmmnpUhpp qUm-hmmhLnt hmfmp lppmnhi hU lmnntglm&pm-jpU ^h^mnp-m^mnnhqphupnU fnqhi (SVAR), inqhinrf oqmmqnpbh^n^ qntm hmplhpp (hmp-lhp-untpupqpmUhp), ihimlmU fcm^uhpp (m^pmUpUhpp U &mnmjnLpjni.UUhpp Ahnpph-pnrfp U lmipimi fcm^uhpp) U ¿"bU-U: 4p-pmn^mfc fhpnqp mnmUArnhmilnLpptUU mjU t, np nLuntfUmupplnrf hU fcm^uhpp lmf hmplhpp mUu^muhip 2nlhpp oqmmqnpbh^n^ hmjiUp pUuipinigpnUmi pU^npfmgpmU:
^qhglpU, UhUqnqmU U Hhqp (2013), mnmgUnpqlhinl Pjm^mpp U ^hpnmmpp fh-pnqn^, pmqmpmlmUntpjmU mqqhgntpjni.U-UhpU ntuntfUmupphi hU pus hplpUhpp ^fph-pp, U mpqjntUpnLf nL2mqpml tflpppl pmgm-hmjintfUhp hU ^imp^i fnmpmplm-snpUhpp ¿m^hpp imjfmUm^npnq qnp&nU-Uhpp ihpmphpjmp
1. UnmgpU lmpUnp qnp&nUp hplpp rnUrnh-um^mU qmpqmgJmU Jm^mpqm^U t: Smpqm-gnq hplpUhpntf ihimlmU fcm^uhpp qmhm-jpU (UnLjU dmfmUmlmhmilm&nLf) U lntim-lmjpU (qpimpl^nq hnppqnUntf qntfmpmjpU mnnrfnl) fnmpmplminpp n^ U2mUmlmip t U ^npp qpnjpg, fpU^qhn qmpqmgmfc hplpUh-pnrf mjU U2mUm^mLpnphU qpmlmU t:
2. bplpnpq qnp&nUp ^n^mpdhpp nhdpfU t: ippu^mb ^n^mpdhpn^ hplpUhpntf hplmpm-dmflhi JntLsp^Lpkmsnpp fh& t 1-pg, pul inqmgnq ^n^mpdhpn^ hplpUhpp qhipnrf pUihu imhmjpU, mjU^hu ti hplmpmdmflhi fnmpmplminpp ^npp t 1-pg:
3. Zmgnpqp mnUmpp pmgntpjmU Jm^mp-qm^U t: ¿mfhfmimpmp ^ml sUshunLpjntU-Uhpp(mpimppU mnUipm2p2mUmnntp-]niU/£bU<60%) pUnp^ntf hU 1-pg fh& hplm-pmdmflhi JntLsp^LpkmsnpUhpn^, pul hm-pmphpmlmUnphU pmg sUshunLpjntUUhpp pmgmumlmUn^:
4. LmpUnp qnp&nU t Imnm^mpntpjmU ^mprnpp £uU-m.tf: UjU hplpUhpntf, npihq lmnmlmpntpjmU impip/ZLU hmpm-phpmlgnLpjntUp qhpmqmgnrf t 60%-p (tfip-ppl hqmUmlnl usmg^mb lppiplmlmU umh-
fmUmqpfc), imhmjpU fnmpmplminpp 0-t, pul hplmpmdmflhip pmgmumlmU:
5. UnLimpmplmmnpUhpp mmpphp hU pum pjnighp fcm^uhpp pmqmqpmmmpphpp: Smp-qmgnq U qmpqmgmfc hplpUhpnrf lmipimi fcm^hpp imhmjpU fnmpmplminpp qpmlmU t, pul hplmpmdmJlhsp Jhb Jhlpg:
bph ^npA.hUp hhsmqnsntpjmU mpqjntUp-Uhpp smpmbhL ZmjmusmUp sUshuntpjmU ^pm, Impnq hUp Um^ U mnmg hUpmqphL, np LpUhLn^ gm&p-tfpgpU hlmJsmjpU hplpp, JntLsp^LplmsnpUhpUhpp Impnq hU U2mUm-ImLpnphU qpmlmU ^LpUhL: Ujntu InqJpg mnUspp pmgntpjntUp, ^n^mpdhpp nhdpJp U ^mpspp Jmlmpqmlp JpmU2mUml hqpmlm-gntpjntUUhpp qmL pntjL ^hU smLpu: Uju^hu, mpsmppU mnUspm2p2mUmnnLp]ntU/ZbU hm-pmphpmlgntpjntUp 2017p-pU ImqJhL t 54%, npp pm^mlmUpU Jns t «pmg sUshunLpjntU» hmJmp^hLnt hmJmp qps^nq IppsplmlmU mpdhppU: bplpp ^n^mpdhpp nhdpJp, pus UUZ qmumlmpqJmU, 2016p-pU «unqmgnq ^ppuntJpU Jns» (crawl-like arrangement) nhdp-Jpg t «Lnqmgnqp» (floating)1: ^mnm-
^mpntpjmU ^mpspp Jmlmpqmlp Uu Jns t qps^nq 2hJmjpU JmlmpqmlpU: ^mphLp t hqpmlmgUhL, np Zmjmummhp inhinhunLpjnL-hnLif phpmgpl ¿fmjuuhpp ilnLiinpiqiplmumpp ilnm t qpnjpU, pul imilmgnijU qhiqpnif ifinpp qpmlmU t: ^miqpmmi dmjuuhpp qhtqpnif hph 2mpnLUmlnLf hhp hpfUilhi qpisilnq hhmmqn-mnLpjmh mpqjnLhphhpp ipm, hpfp niUhUp hhpmqphinL 1-pg fhb fnLiinpiqiplminnphhpp ihpmphpjmp
ihpmphpnrf lnUlphi ZmjmuimUp hmfmp hmplmpjntghimjpU fnmpmplm-inpUhpp qUmhmimlmUUhppU, mqm mju mnntfnl fmuUmqpimlmU qpmlmUntpjntUp ^pui umhfmUm^ml t:
ftnqhUn^p U SmUlhymUp (2015) Zmjmu-imUnLf hmplmpjntghimjpU fnLLspщplm-inpUhpp ^m^hpp qUmhmihint hmfmp oq-imqnp^lhi hU hplnL fhpnqUhp «^UgmjpU», npp hUpmqpntf t fnщpцLplmsnpUhpp qUm-
1 Sb u "Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2016", https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/Annual-Report-on-Exchange-Arrangements-and-Exchange-Restrictions/Issues/2017/01/25/Annual-Report-on-Exchange-Arrangements-and-Exchange-Restrictions-2016-43741
Регион и мир, 2019, № 3
hrnrnnt! hplhlbn) lpgmqqmjpü фпpЛ.p )pm U oqшшqпpЫbLпl hшIшщшшшu]шü ¿шфпpп-2p¿übp, U SVAR qümhmlnLl pul P]mÜ2mp-^bpnllpp lbpnimpmüntpjmü: Unmgpüp mpunLÜpntl urnmg)m& qümhmlmlmüübpp фшuшпLI bü «gmbppg» (0.1-0.3) lpü^U «lp-2pü» (0.4-0.6) Jnцmpщlplшmnpübpp lmupü, um^mjü, pul hbqpümlübpp, qümhmrnmlmü-übpp oqшшqпpЫb^pu щЬшр t hm2)p mnübj, np lbpnqp lm|pppmg)mb t qmpqmgmb bplpübpp hmlmp: Cus SVAR lnib^n) lmlmplmb qüm-hшшпLIübpp &m]ubpp m)bimglmüp Z"bU-ü ipm^mü t mpAmqmhpntl 1 lmpp hbln lpü^U 0.89, pul щplпLI, 1.42 lnlnumjpü lb-шп): Zmplbpp m)bimglmüp Z"bU-ü pmgmum-lmü t mpAmqmhpml lpmjü щшhp ipntpjmlp (-0.2 lnlnumjpü цьш), pul hbrnmqmjnLl lшщp фп])пъ1 t ipmlmüp:
Lmqmpjmüp U b^lpümü (2018) qümhmrnbi_ bü щbшшlшü bm]ubpp IпцmpщL]lшшпp-übpp SVAR lnibjp oqüntpjmlp oqlmqnpbb-^n) 2004-2017pp ppmlmü jnqmpppllmfc щЬ-rnmlmü bm]ubpp, hmplbpp, Zmjmulmüp Z"bU-p gntgmüp2übpp U tlqnqbü фпфп]ш-lmüübp (ПА ZtU-ü U щ^^ qübpp): Cus qümhmlmlmüübpp, Z"bU mpámqmüpp ЩЬ-rnmlmü bm]ubpp 2nlpü pm)mlmüpü ntdqpü t: Üm]ubpp IпцшpЩl]lшшпpp pp mlbüm-pmpAp lmlmpimlü t mpA.mümqpntl üm.jü щшhpü (3.4), miünthblU mulp^mümpmp ü)mqntl t 0.7-p ^npu, 0.3-p ntp U 0.2-p 12 bnmlujml hbln:
Upümujmüp (2017) bm]ubpp IпцшpЩl]-lmlnpp ¿шфp qümhmlnLl t 0.13 mnmgpü rnmpntl, 0.22, 0.27, 0.31 hmgnpq bpbp lmpp-übpp hmlmp (lnLlmlmjpü) oqrnmqnp&bin) P]mÜ2mpp U ^bpnllpp (2002) lbpnimpmünL-
pjnLÜp:
UJuщpuпl, bpb шIфпфbüp ZZ lhlbuntp-
jntüntl IпLLшpщ^plшшпpübpp )bpmpbpjmL nLuntlümupp)mb qüшhшшпLIübpp mpijntüp-übpp, lmpnq büp bqpmlmghbj, np mlbümjü hm)mümlmüntpjmlp, щЬшш1шЬ ömjuubpp Zmimulmhrnl mhbh qpmlmh ifinpp lnLilp-щ]lшmпp, phq npnl phpmgpl ómjuubpp IпLLmpщ]lшmпpp !пш t qpnjph, pul lшщp-шш[ àmjuubpp bplшpшâшIlbm lпL¿mpщ]-lmlnpp lbö 11-pg: Zmplbpp IпLLmpщ]lш-
lnpp (pmgmpÀml mpâbpn)) Uu !пш t qpnjph, U pnpp t ömjuubpp IпLLmpщ]lшmпppg:
Шфпф^п) lbpim.&nLpjnLÜp, hmüqnil büp bpbp hmjbgmlmpqmjpü bqpmhmüqnLlübpp.
1. ¿m]murnmhni.ü hшplшpjm£tшшj]h рш-qmpmlmhnipjmh hblmhmjmg IbpiniànLpjnL-üp ^mulml t, np ibpgphpu np^mlp âmlm-UшlшhшшlшЬhtpnl.ü phnpn2 t bqb^ rnhrnbum-lmh gplLph n^ ш!ЬЦШШ q^pp^ ^pngplimj-üntpjnLhp: Uju bpUnLjpp pmgmumlmü t mqqb^ lmlpnlülbumlmü lmjnthntpjmh )pm U, 1шшЬ^п) щbшшlшü püpmgpl &m]ubpp hm-lmp büpmip)nq 1-pg фnpp IпLLшpщ^]lшшп-ppg pnLjL ш)Ь^ щbшшlшü щшpшpp lmlmp-qmlp mümpunLÜmlbl mlb^mgntl:
2. Zmimulmhrnl hmplmpjnLgblmjph рш-qmpmlmhm.p-]ni.hp lbp2ph lmpphbpph ^ш-nmiglmbpmjph ]hqpphbp t nthbgbL: щbшшlшü щшpшp/ZЪU hmpmpbpmlgntpjmü mlb^mglmüp, lшщpшшL bm]ubp/ZLU hmpm-pbpmlgntpjnLÜp ü)mqb^ t, pü^p pmgmumlmü t müipmimnüntl bplшpшdшIlbш lhlbum-lmü m^p )pm hm2)p mnhb^n) lшщpmшl_ bm]ubpp hmlmp büpmip)nq pmpAp, U püpm-gpl bm]ubpp hmlmp qpnjpü 1пш IпLLшpщ-jplmlnpp:
3. Smppbp qhmhmlmlmhhbpp hmlmqpnLÜ-hbpp gnLjg bh lm^pu, np Zmimulmhrnl щЬ-rnmlmh bm]ubpp pmpÂpmglmh qpmlmh mqqbgnLpjnthp bhpmqpmpmp qbpml2nntl t hmplbpp pmpApmglmh pmgmumlmh mqqb-gnipjnthhbpph: ^mplpp lmjntümglmü рш-qmpmlmüntpjmü hmlmp, шühpшdb2шпLpJшü 1Ьщрпъ1, шщшqшJПLI mlbjp mpunthmlbl t oqlmqnpbbL m_ pb щbшшlшü bm]ubpp 1ш-un) (hшшlшщbu lшщpшшL bm]ubpp) 1п2ш pmqmpmlmünLpjnLÜ, mjL hmplmjpü quщпq pmqmpmlmhntpjnLÜ hmplmjpü )mp^mpm-pntpjmü pülbhuplmglmlp U hmplbp/ZLU hmpmpbpmlmgntpjmü mlb^mglmlp:
Oqsmqnp&^mfc qpm^mUnLpjmh дшЬ^
1. U^UmujmU Ч-. (2017). ^trnm^mU fcm]uutpp mqqtgnrpjnrUp mUrntum^mU ш^р ^рш (ZZ oppUm^n^), UmhUm^nunrpjnrU, fcphmU. http://etd.asj-oa.am/5548/
2. Акопян, Э. Н., & Карапетян, Н. Н. (2018). Как обеспечить устойчивость государственного долга и реагировать на экономические циклы? Модернизация фискальных правил в Армении. Финансовый журнал, (4), 10-20.
3. Лазарян, С. С., & Елкина, М. А. (2018). Оценка мультипликатора государственных расходов в Республике Армения. Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт. Финансовый журнал, (4), 21-31.
4. Blanchard, O. Perotti, R., (2002). "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, pp. 1329— 1368.
5. Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. G., & Vegh, C. A. (2013). How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?. Journal of monetary economics, 60(2), 239-254.
6. International Monetary Fund (2016). Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Annual-Report-
on-Exchange-Arrangements-and-Exchange-
Restrictions/Issues/2017/01/25/Annual-Report-on-
Exchange-Arrangements-and-Exchange-Restrictions-
2016-43741
7. Perotti, Roberto, Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries (August 2002). ECB Working Paper No. 168. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=358082.
8. Rozenov R., and V. Janvelyan (2015). "Fiscal Multipliers in Armenia," Republic Of Armenia.Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 15/66
