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52
OVERVIEW
DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-24-33 JELF30
(CO ]
Trends of Project Finance in the World Market and in Arab Countries
M. K. Mohammadia
Damascus University, Syria; Saint-Petersburg State University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0601-226X
ABSTRACT
Over the years, project finance has proved to be one of the innovative techniques in bridging the resource constraints faced by most governments in financing Large developmental investments. In this regard, the current state and dynamics of indicators of the world project finance market, as well as the role and place of the Arab economy in this global phenomenon, are interesting. The aim of the article is to review the features of project financing in the world and in Arab countries, mainly in the GCC region. The article employed the methods of statistical analysis, regression modelling. The author analysed historical data on the volume, dynamics, and structure of project financing in the GCC countries. The study revealed the use of project finance in 18 Arab countries, primarily concentrated in three areas: energy and water supply, petrochemicals, and the oil and gas industry. The author concluded that there is a growing tendency to use Islamic project finance structure.
Keywords: project finance; Islamic project finance; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
For citation: Mohammadia M. K. Trends of project finance in the world market and in Arab countries. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2020;24(1):24-33. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-24-33
BY 4.0
ОБЗОР
Тенденции проектного финансирования на мировом рынке и в арабских странах
М. К. Мохаммадия
Университет Дамаска, Дамаск, Сирия; Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет, Санкт-Петербург, Россия
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0601-226X
АННОТАЦИЯ
Проектное финансирование на протяжении многих лет стало одним из инновационных методов преодоления ресурсных ограничений, с которыми сталкивается большинство правительств при финансировании крупных инвестиций в развитие. В связи с этим интересны текущее состояние и динамика показателей мирового рынка проектного финансирования, а также роль и место арабской экономики в этом глобальном явлении. Цель статьи - обзор особенностей проектного финансирования в мире и особенно в арабских странах, в основном в регионе GCC. Использованы методы статистического анализа, построения регрессии. Автор проанализировал исторические данные об объеме, динамике и структуре проектного финансирования в странах GCC. Результаты исследования показали, что проектное финансирование использовалось в 18 арабских странах. В основном оно сосредоточено в трех областях: энергетике и водоснабжении, нефтехимии и нефтегазовой промышленности. Сделан вывод, что наблюдается растущая тенденция использования исламской структуры финансирования проекта.
Ключевые слова: проектное финансирование; исламское проектное финансирование; Совет сотрудничества арабских государств Персидского залива (ССАГПЗ)
Для цитирования: Mohammadia M. K. Trends of project finance in the world market and in Arab countries. Финансы: теория и практика. 2020;24(1):24-33. DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-24-33
© Mohammadia M. K., 2020
INTRODUCTION
Project finance has over the years proved to be one of the innovative techniques in bridging the resource constraints faced by most governments in financing large developmental investments, it is an efficient way to fund capital-intensive and strategically important projects such as long-term infrastructure, industrial, or public services.
Despite the increasing trend in using project finance in the world, published empirical studies on the topic are limited [1]. The majority of these published articles and working papers are theoretical rather than practical studies, focusing primarily on a detailed examination of individual narrow aspects such as risk management, types of interaction schemes used between participants, contractual framework, and credit structure.
P. Nevitt [2] was one of the first authors who justified the concept of project financing, presenting the general theory of project financing. Many texts (S. Gatti, F. Fabozzi, A. Fight, M. Khan, R. Parra, M. Morrison) [3-7] contain detailed descriptions, analyses, and examples of project financing. The works by B. Esti [8, 9] are highly specialized and mainly devoted to risk analysis. While the materials published by international financial organizations, such as the World Bank [10], are mostly presented in the form of databases, which should be analyzed by the reader.
Kleimeier and Megginson [11] indicated that project finance is mainly used in infrastructure and the utilities sector, where it is easy to create project structures with clearly identified cash flow streams. Kleimeier and Versteeg [12] argued that project finance can offset the lack of institutional and financial development and it can be well adapted to the least developed countries. Based on empirical data analysis of data from 90 countries, they found that project finance was a powerful driver of economic growth in low-income countries.
The work by H. Davis [13] consists of 38 case studies of project financing covering energy, water, resources and infrastructure projects in a variety of countries, which illustrate different aspects of project finance across the world.
Among the works devoted to project finance in Russia, it is necessary to note the works by I. Nikono-va, A. Smirnov, G. Kalmykova, V. Kasatonov, D. Mo-rozov, Eh. Fait, V. Fauzer, I. Rodionov, etc [14-19]. They examined the main features of project financing, presented practical examples of project financing in the CIS and abroad. The modern tools for managing risks arising from the implementation of large
investment projects, and ways to minimize them are described.
Existing literature suggests many definitions of project finance. Triantis defines project finance as the art and skill of piecing together new business development elements, financial engineering techniques, and a web of contractual agreements to develop competitive projects and make the right decisions to raise funding for industrial or infrastructure projects on a limited/nonrecourse basis where lenders look to the cash flow for loan repayment and the project assets for collateral [20]. While Finnerty contends that project finance may be defined as the raising of funds on a limited-recourse or nonrecourse basis to finance an economically separable capital investment project in which the providers of the funds look primarily to the cash flow from the project as the source of funds to service their loans and provide the return of and the return on their equity invested in the project [21].
So, the principles of project finance can be summarized as [22]:
• The project usually relates to major infrastructure with a long construction period and long operating life. Therefore, the financing must also be for a long term (typically 15-25 years).
• Lenders rely on the future cash flow projected to be generated by the project to pay their interest and fees, and repay their debt.
• There is a high ratio of debt to equity ('leverage' or 'gearing') — roughly speaking, project finance debt may cover 70-90% of the capital cost of a project.
• The Project Company's physical assets are likely to be worth much less than the debt if they are sold off after a default on the financing, and in projects involving public infrastructure they cannot be sold anyway.
• The project has a finite life, based on such factors as the length of the contracts or licenses, or reserves of natural resources. So, the project-finance debt must be fully repaid by the end of the project's life.
• There are no guarantees from the investors in the Project Company for the project-finance debt. This is 'non-recourse' finance.
The synthesis and analysis of data on project financing is significantly complicated due to the difficulty of identifying compliance with the above characteristics. In fact, the only formalized source of information on a systematic basis is data on loans attracted for project purposes.
Table 1
Size and number of project finance transactions in 1995-2018
Year Total loans ($ bn) Annual change % Number of transactions Number of countries Year Total loans ($ bn) Annual change % Number of transactions Number of countries
1995 23.33 - - 36 2007 219.99 21.8% 616 75
1996 42.83 83.6% - 36 2008 250.56 13.9% 689 77
1997 67.43 57.4% - 49 2009 139.19 -44.4% 461 63
1998 56.65 -16% - 57 2010 208.17 49.6% 598 62
1999 72.39 27.8% - 56 2011 213.49 2.6% 615 70
2000 110.89 53.2% - 55 2012 198.75 -6.9% 538 61
2001 108.48 -2.2% 314 66 2013 203.03 2.2% 584 69
2002 62.17 -42.7% 284 65 2014 260.25 28.2% 704 77
2003 69.56 11.9% 302 67 2015 277.73 6.7% 791 81
2004 116.44 67.4% 472 65 2016 236.46 -14.9% 770 75
2005 140.30 20.5% 513 67 2017 229.64 -2.9% 791 80
2006 180.61 28.7% 541 62 2018 282.68 23.1% 871 86
Source: author's calculations according to the PFI League Tables. URL: http://www.pfie.com/ (accessed on 05.12.2019).
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT FINANCING IN THE WORLD
The analysis of the state of the global market for project finance allows us to state that in recent years there has been a clear trend of growth in the use of this type of financing.
The synthesis and analysis of data on project financing is significantly complicated due to the difficulty of identifying compliance with the above characteristics. In fact, the only systematic source of information that can be formalized is data on loans attracted for project finance purposes, which are often classified according to the purposes of obtaining a loan declared by the borrower. This information on transactions is available at several organizations including Thompson Reuters and Dealogic, which publish regular information of deal activity and compile league tables summarising the activities of the key players in the market. Table 1 summarises the project finance market information for 1995-2018 from Thompson Reuters.
The analysis of the volume dynamics of project finance transactions in the global market allows us to state that in recent years, the use of project finance has grown dramatically from $ 23.33 bn per annum in 1995 to reach a peak of $ 282.7 bn in 2018, financing around 11000 transactions in 158 countries, with a total amount of project finance raised between 1995 and 2018 amounting to $ 3771 bn. The USA with $ 578.7 bn accounts for most project finance (followed by Australia $ 370.2 bn and the UK $ 313.3 bn).
The project finance market before the financial crisis from 2000 to 2008 can be characterized based on the following data:
• total project finance loans amounted to $ 1259 bn;
• a total of 4325 loans were granted to finance projects;
• the average annual growth rate of financing was 19.2%.
Using this type of financing had been a clear trend of growth until 2008, when this sector of the
Fig. 1. Sectoral structure of the global market for project finance in 2018
Source: author's calculations according to the PFI League Tables. URL: http://www.pfie.com/ (accessed on 05.12.2019).
Oil & Gas 19.1%
Transportation, 17.9%
Telecoms, 2.6%
Mining, 2.7%
Water & Sewage, 1.7%
Petrochemicals, 1.3%
Industry, 1%
Waste & Recycling, 0.4%
I Energy I Telecoms
I Oil & Gas «Transportation I PPP
I Water & Sewage «Petrochemicals «Industry
I Mining
I Waste & Recycling
international financial market reached $ 250.6 bn. However, in 2009 the volume of project finance in the world fell back to the 2005 level, decreasing by 44% compared to 2008 due to the global financial crisis, amounted to $ 139.2 bn which was the lowest figure in the last 15 years.
The project finance market after the financial crisis from 2010 to 2018 can be characterized based on the following data:
• total project finance loans amounted to $ 2210.2 bn;
• a total of 6262 loans were granted to finance projects;
• the average annual growth rate of financing was 9.7%
This form of financing has also been used extensively in emerging economies such as in China ($ 34.7 bn) and India ($ 274.8 bn). Since 2005, India has been among the top ten countries attracting project finance. India ranked on top in the global project finance market in 2009, 2010 and 2011, accounting for 21.5%, 26.3%, 21.05% of the global project finance market respectively, ahead of the UK, Australia, and the USA.
According to Thomson Reuters, from an industry perspective on the international project finance market, the energy sector has been the leading sector in applying project finance since 1995. It has accumulated at least 30%, reaching a maximum of 53.5% in 2017, except 1997, when the telecommunication sector took first place (27.6%) ahead of the energy
sector (24.9%). While in recent years, the oil and gas industry and the transport sector have shared the second place with an average value of 20% for both industries from 2009 to 2018.
In 2018, the main industries that used transactions involving project financing were the energy (48.7%, $ 137.63 bn), oil and gas (19.1%, $ 54.07 bn), and transport (17.9%) ones, as shown in Fig. 1. These fairly capital-intensive sectors form a significant part of the national infrastructure, have predictable sources of income, which makes them suitable for project financing [23].
On a regional basis, the distribution of the transactions by region is shown in Fig. 2 for the period of 2007-2018. The market is divided into the Americas, EMEA (Europa, Middle East and Africa) and Asia Pacific. Until 2009, EMEA was the leader in the number and volume of project finance transactions followed by the Asia-Pacific region. Asian project finance activity has been particularly driven by infrastructure finance in India and the natural resources sector in Australia [24]. In 2011, India and Australia made up one-third of the project loans market. When the global financial crisis happened, the reduction in the volume of transactions in the European region and the Asia-Pacific region took the first place for the years from 2010 to 2012.
However, since 2013 and today, the sector of the EMEA region has again dominated, with an average of 41.19% of the global market for 2013-2018. The majority of transactions are conducted in UK, France,
300
250
200
150
100
50
I Americas BAsia Pacific
■ j J
EMEA
I I
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017
2018
Fig. 2. The distribution of project finance transactions by region for the period of 2007-2018 ($ bn)
Source: author's calculations according to the PFI League Tables. URL: http://www.pfie.com/.
Table 2
Global GDP from 2001 to 2018 ($ bn)
0
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Global GDP 33 396 34 674 38 902 43 817 47457 51 448 57 968 63 612 60 334
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Global GDP 66 051 73 393 75 085 77 236 79 333 75 049 76 164 80 951 85 910
Source: World Bank data. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (accessed on 05.12.2019).
Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The project finance market in the Asia-Pacific region is mainly represented by Australia, India, Japan and Indonesia, while more than 60% of the project finance transactions in the Americas region take place in the USA.
Additionally, at this historical stage, applying the project financing mechanism is used as one of the sources of economic growth. We have proved this fact by regression analysis.
By comparing the data on the volume of world GDP in Table 2 and on the volume of project financing from Table 1 in the period from 2001 to 2018, arranging them in order of increasing factor x (the volume of project financing), it is possible to establish direct relationships between the studied char-
acteristics. Such a study will allow us to establish a relationship between the growth of project financing and global GDP.
It can be assumed that the relationship between global GDP and project finance is direct, which can be described by the equation of the line. To establish the parameters of the linear regression equation y = a + b * x, we used the built-in statistical function (linear), which allowed us to establish the value of coefficient b, coefficient a, determination coefficient R2.
Y = 209 * X + 23508.
R2 is 0.78, which is fairly good. It means that 91% of our values fit the regression analysis model.
Table 3
The annual volume and number of transactions of project finance in the Arab world from 1995 to 2018
Year Total loans (billion, $) Total number of transactions Share among all countries, % Year Total loans (billion, $) Total number of transactions Share among all countries, %
1995 0.10 1 0.43% 2008 25.72 28 10.27%
1996 4.92 7 11.48% 2009 11.92 15 8.56%
1997 7.07 8 10.49% 2010 14.62 11 7.02%
1998 3.21 10 5.66% 2011 10.49 12 4.91%
1999 4.40 11 6.07% 2012 9.13 15 4.59%
2000 3.67 8 3.31% 2013 16.73 13 8.24%
2001 8.60 16 7.93% 2014 13.48 25 5.18%
2002 2.39 7 3.84% 2015 16.49 22 5.94%
2003 7.79 12 11.19% 2016 27.51 28 11.63%
2004 18.25 25 15.67% 2017 11.59 29 5.05%
2005 29.06 37 20.71% 2018 9.59 16 3.39%
2006 30.57 27 16.92% Total 327.07 423 8.67%
2007 39.78 40 18.08%
Source: author's calculations according to the PFI League Tables. URL: http://www.pfie.com/ (accessed on 05.12.2019).
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT FINANCING IN THE ARAB WORLD
Arab countries are not the most developed markets considering the examples of project financing compared to European countries or the USA. However, the Gulf countries stand apart. They have become a popular investment destination, given their extensive energy resources and rapidly growing population. There is still a huge need for infrastructure (including energy, water treatment and sewage) throughout the region.
Table 3 illustrates the evolution in the volume of transactions carried out in all Arab countries from 1995 to 2018 and their share in the global volume. The project finance market boomed in 1996 and rose from virtually nothing to about $ 5 bn with 11.5% of the global market. Then, the market stayed almost stable with less than 10% of the global market share until 2004, when the project finance loan market increased by 134% compared to 2003 and jumped to $ 18.25 bn which was 15.7% of the global market. The volume of
transactions continued growing in Arab countries until 2008. The 2008-2009 financial crisis had a sizeable impact on energy prices and, by association, on the development of energy and non-energy infrastructure where volumes decreased dramatically from about $ 40 bn in 2007 to just below $ 26 bn in 2008. A similar fall occurred in 2009, when the loan volumes dropped to about $ 12 bn. The volume of transactions fluctuated significantly in the last decade dropping off to 9.13 bn in 2012 and peaking at $ 27.51 bn in 2016. Fig. 3 lists the total volume of project finance for each Arabic country from 1995 to 2018.
Project financing is booming in Saudi Arabia, leading Arab countries to transactions. About 32% of the projects took place in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region with 85 transactions worth more than $ 104 bn, followed by Qatar (17%), the United Arab Emirates (16%) and Oman (12.5%). Together, the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) account for 86% of the total Arabic project finance market.
120.00
100.00
104.45
80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00
Л4
56.6
51.84
40.59
24.65
14.95 12.75
8.95
5.58
2.78 2.16 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.04 0.03
Fig. 3. The total volume of project finance in each Arabic country from 1995 to 2018 ($ bn)
Source: author's calculations according to the PFI League Tables. URL: http://www.pfie.com/ (accessed on 05.12.2019).
Fig. 4. Project finance volumes in the GCC region since 2003 ($ bn)
Source: author's calculations according to the PFI League Tables. URL: http://www.pfie.com/ (accessed on 05.12.2019).
Fig. 4 shows the volume of transactions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region in the last 16 years. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region comprises fast-growing economies with government revenues fuelled by sizeable oil revenues. Investment in energy infrastructures is a crucial pillar of the GCC Governments policy strategies for regional economic development. Furthermore, GCC economies usually have specific tax legislations that can influence on the capital structure of large investment projects. Except Oman, the GCC countries did not historically levy sizable corporate tax on locally owned domestic companies [25].
The project finance market of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) reached its highest levels in
2005-2007 and recorded its maximum in 2007 with $ 34.7 bn because of high oil prices. However, since 2008, due to the global financial crisis, European fiscal crisis and political and economic instability after the Arab Spring have led to a sharp reduction in the GCC project finance market. The governments throughout the region are investing in energy, petrochemicals, oil and gas, transport and other industries, as they face a growing population and the need to diversify economic activities.
The data in Table 4 show that for the period of 1995-2018, 214 projects were implemented in the GCC region with a total value of $ 281 bn distributed between 11 industrial sectors, including: utili-
Table 4
Number of projects by industry and country from 1995 to 2018 (size in $ bn /
number of financed projects)
Type of project Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE Oman Kuwait Bahrain Total size and # of projects
Utilities (Energy & Water) 21082 / 16 8376 / 7 27198/ 23 9437/ 18 2196 / 3 5245 / 6 73 534 / 73
Petrochemicals 48 056 / 26 7359 / 6 80 / 1 6948 / 7 7797/2 123 / 1 70363/ 43
Oil & Gas 14 332 / 5 26205 / 11 3371 / 7 19521 / 14 4212/2 1591 / 2 69 232 / 41
Mining 15136 / 7 3309 / 2 14 580 / 5 1545 / 1 - 5793 / 3 40363/ 18
Transport & Infrastructure 2615 / 6 11346/7 425 / 1 1033/5 - - 15419 / 19
Telecoms 2350 / 1 - 1800 / 2 220 / 1 750 / 1 - 5120 / 5
Recreation & Real Estate 300 / 1 - 3187/4 105 / 1 - - 3592 / 6
Agriculture & Forestry 280 / 1 - 487 / 3 1782 / 1 - - 2549 / 5
Industry 300 / 1 - 709 / 3 - - - 1009 / 4
Total 104 451 / 64 56595/ 33 51 837 / 49 40 591 / 48 14955 / 8 12752 / 12 281181 / 214
Source: author's calculations according to the PFI League Tables. URL: http://www.pfie.com/ (accessed on 05.12.2019).
ties (energy & water desalination and wastewater treatment), oil and gas production, petrochemicals, mining, transport and other industries.
The Gulf has been a particularly prolific source of project finance opportunities in both refining and petrochemicals due to cheap and abundant raw material. Over the past few decades, the industrial cities of Jubail and Yanbu in Saudi Arabia have developed into large manufacturing sites for petrochemicals and refined products. The investment made into the downstream oil and gas sector in these cities has been enormous. Most of it has been funded through project finance loans. Qatar, Oman and Kuwait have, likewise, raised project finance for refining and petrochemical projects [24].
Project finance in Qatar had primarily been used in the area of oil and gas, energy and social infrastructure sectors. In 2012, Qatar's national gas companies (Qatargas and Rasgas) became the world's
largest producer of LNG [26]. Qatargas operates 14 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) trains with a total annual production capacity of 77 million tonnes. The LNG industry in Qatar has been financed almost only by project finance. Project finance debt of about $ 14 bn has been successfully raised from a variety of sources for Qatargas and Rasgas. In addition, a host of international events, such as the FIFA 2022 World Cup, are increasing demand for infrastructure and facilities.
In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), project financing has been mainly concentrated in the energy and water sectors. Besides the energy and water sectors, there have been project financing in the heavy industries, including metallurgy. There have also been two PPP in the education sector: the Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi and the campus of Zayed University. Over the past few years, there has been a lot of activity in the solar energy sector. In 2018, the financing
of the waste-to-energy (WTE) plant in Sharjah was complete, the first one in the region.
Project financing in Oman has emerged as the preferred alternative to conventional methods of financing infrastructure and other large-scale projects in the field of oil and gas pipelines, refineries, electricity generating facilities and water and desalination projects.
Islamic finance made up nearly 40% of the total project finance market in the GCC in 2015 compared to just over 12.5% in 2006 [27]. Islamic project finance is basically the same as project finance — it is a financial technique that involves financing of the entire or partial capital needed to fund a project. However, Islamic project finance requires that the purpose of the project and the financial schemes are consistent with Sharia. For instance, investment objectives must not be related to gambling or sale of pork or spirits, which are prohibited by Sharia law. Also, financial schemes cannot involve interest-based lending, and cannot include unclear terms of contract.
Islamic financial institutions therefore have to design their financial structure so that profit is generated from commissions and rental fees through actual trading, without collecting interest [28].
CONCLUSIONS
In light of the above analysis, the world market reflects wide variations in the field of project financing. The article sheds light on the Arabic experience in the project finance market. This mechanism has been used in 18 Arab countries, the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), given its extensive energy resources to be actively engaged in project finance transactions, enhancing their role in the global economy. The transactions have primarily been used in three areas: energy and water supply, petrochemicals, and the oil and gas industry. Moreover, one can notice that project finance in the GCC region is witnessing a growing trend of using Islamic project finance structure.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR / ИНФОРМАЦИЯ ОБ АВТОРЕ
Mohammad Kamal Mohammadia — Associate Teacher, Damascus University, Damascus, Syria;
Master's student, Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia Мохаммад Камаль Мохаммадия — ассоциированный преподаватель, Университет Дамаска, Дамаск, Сирия;
студент магистратуры, Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет, Санкт-Петербург, Россия kamalmohammadia@hotmail.com
The article was submitted on 03.12.2019; revised on 17.12.2019 and accepted for publication on 20.12.2019. The author read and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Статья поступила в редакцию 03.12.2019; после рецензирования 17.12.2019; принята к публикации 20.12.2019.
Автор прочитал и одобрил окончательный вариант рукописи.
