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interests. However, the most tangible impact on Azerbaijan is now exerted by the most influential states of the region - Turkey and Iran.
"Vestnik SPbGU, Series 6, " St. Petersburg, 2011, issue 3, pp 63-69.
A. Shustov,
Scholar of Oriental Studies
TRANSFORMATION OF ETHNO-CONFESSIONAL STRUCTURE OF NEWLY-INDEPENDENT STATES OF CENTRAL ASIA
The transformation of the ethno-confessional structure of the population takes place under the impact of three factors: natural surplus determined by the birthrate-death rate ratio, migration flows, and assimilation processes. Inasmuch as the latter occurs, as a rule, during a long historical period and it is difficult to determine it quantitatively, the main factors of the transformation of the ethno-confessional structure of the newly-independent nations of Central Asia in the 1990s - the middle of the first decade of the 21st century are the natural and migration movements of the population.
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are referred to Central Asia. The peoples living on the territory of Central Asia since its inclusion in the Russian Empire are regarded as indigenous population, and non-indigenous population includes settlers of the pre-revolutionary and Soviet periods from other, predominantly European regions of the country. And they are called the "European population" in the article.
In the conditions of a profound economic crisis and an unstable socio-political situation which accompanied the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., the natural growth rates of the population of the former Union
republics have slowed down noticeably. In Central Asia and Kazakhstan, in particular, the slowing down of demographic increase took place in the 1970s. In the period of the demographic "explosion" in 1959 - the 1970s the population surplus reached 42.6%, in 19701979 - 22.6%, and in 1979-1989 - 22.9%, whereas in 1991-2000 the figure was only 9.3%, that is, more than two times less. By 2000 the number of the population of the region reached 55.2 million, by 2008 -60.6 million, and its share in the CIS population in 1991-2005 grew from 18 to 21.6%.
At the same time the demographic development trends of the Central Asian states in the post-Soviet period were differently oriented. In 1990 - 1999 the average annual population surplus in Kyrgyzstan was 0.8%, Tajikistan - 1.8%, and Uzbekistan - 2%. On the contrary, the number of the population of Kazakhstan in the 1990s decreased annually by 0.6% , which was a consequence of the mass emigration of non-indigenous ethnoses and a sharp reduction of natural surplus. As a result, the numerical strength of Kazakhstan's population dwindled by 9.1% (or 1.5 million) by 2000, whereas the population of Kyrgyzstan increased by 11.4% (0.5 million), Tajikistan - by 15.1% (0.8 million), and Uzbekistan - by 18.9% (3.9 million).
In 2000-2008 there was a small population surplus in Kazakhstan (0.8 million), as a result of which the total loss of the population decreased to 4.3%. In all, the population of Central Asia continued to grow rapidly, having increased by 18.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 32% in Uzbekistan, 36.8% in Turkmenistan, and 37.7% in Tajikistan.
On the whole, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan where more than 70% of the regional population live, are the indisputable demographic leaders of Central Asia. However, these indices are not too spectacular against the backdrop of the neighboring states of the Middle East. The leading states of the region - Turkey (72.9 million) and Iran
(69.5 million) not only exceed Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, but entire Central Asia in the number of population.
In recent years the term "Greater Middle East" has become current. It was introduced in journalistic and scientific parlance by the administration of President George Bush, Jr. The Greater Middle East includes Turkey, the Trans-Caucasian states, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the North African countries dominated by Islam. After the disturbances of 2010/2011 in the Arab world Washington's political rhetoric now uses the term "New Middle East."
The decrease of demographic growth rates in the sovereign states of Central Asia was caused by a reduction in the natural surplus of the population. In 1991-1999 the general birthrate coefficient in Kyrgyzstan decreased by 1.3 times, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan -1.5, in Turkmenistan - 1.8, and in Tajikistan - 2.1 times. Despite a reduction of death rate in the republics of Central Asia connected with a younger age structure and its slight growth in Kazakhstan, the natural population surplus in Kyrgyzstan decreased by 1.5 times (from 21.6 to 14.6 per 1,000 population), Uzbekistan - 1.7 (from 28.3 to 17), Turkmenistan - by 1.9 (from 25.4 to 13.1), Tajikistan - by 2.3 (from 32.8 to 14.4), and Kazakhstan - three times (from 13.4 to 4.4).
The coefficient of the natural surplus of the population of Tajikistan increased from 14.4 to 22 in 1999 - 2008, Kazakhstan -from 4.4 to 11, Turkmenistan - from 13.1 to 18.0, Kyrgyzstan - from 14.6 to 17, and Uzbekistan remained at the same level (17 per 1,000 population). By 2008 the lowest natural population surplus was in Kazakhstan and the highest in Tajikistan.
The economic crisis and a drop in the population's living standards were the main reason for the prolonged drop in birthrate. In 1988-1998 the average number of children born by a woman during her reproductive years decreased in Kazakhstan from 3.1 to 2, in
Kyrgyzstan - from 4 to 2.8, in Uzbekistan - from 4.3 to 2.8, in Turkmenistan - from 4.6 to 2.9, and in Tajikistan - from 5.3 to 3.4. By the end of the 1990s birthrate in Kazakhstan ensured only a simple reproduction, and in other countries of Central Asia - extended reproduction of the population.
Despite a reduction in the average size of the family, most of them had many children. In 1993 forty-five percent of all families in Kyrgyzstan and about 60% in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan consisted of five and more members. According to the population census of 2000, in Tajikistan 10.8 % of all households had ten and more people.
The families of the indigenous people in Central Asia are characterized by many children. According to the data for 1995, birthrate among Tajiks was 29.8, Uzbeks - 30.3, and Russians - 6.2, and death rate - 5.3, 5.4 and 16 per thousand, respectively. That is, birthrate among Russians was 4.8 lower and mortality three times higher than among the indigenous ethnoses.
The emigration of the non-indigenous people from Central Asian countries has begun long before the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. The outflow of representatives of the European population in Kazakhstan, for example, was first registered in 1968 and in other Central Asian republics it began in the 1970s. By that time the consequences of the demographic "explosion" among the indigenous people began to be felt. One of them was the growing tension on the labor market. Another sphere of tension was certain clashes of interests of the indigenous and non-indigenous people in the party-government apparatus, the systems of education, health service, and culture and art, where responsible and prestigious posts were taken more and more frequently by representatives of the indigenous (title) ethnoses. As a result, the migration flow of the European population was replaced by its outflow.
The post-Soviet migrations were based on a whole range of factors which determined their character and intensity during different periods. Among the objective factors were political ones (the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. and the turning of administrative borders between republics into state borders, which forced the non-indigenous people to determine their citizenship and choose the country of residence), social ones (non-inclusion of non-indigenous ethnoses in the system of informal social ties), and economic ones (considerable reduction of employment in industrial branches). As to the subjective factors, there were ethnic ones (growth of nationalist sentiments among the indigenous population), confessional ones (the growing influence of Islam), and cultural ones (the narrowing down of the Russian cultural, information and educational sphere).
In a concrete historical situation these factors turned into reasons determining the dynamics of migrations in one or another country. According to a selective surveillance in 1991, emigration from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan was caused mainly by the exacerbation of interethnic relations, which accounted for 40.6, 32.7 and 27.3 percent of all reasons for emigration, respectively. In Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which had gone through interethnic conflicts, the criminal situation, which usually accompanied inner political instability, was among the major reasons for emigration.
By the mid-1990s, when the situation in Central Asia became somewhat stabilized, the economic problems came to the fore among the main reasons for emigration. A poll among Russians living in cities in Kazakhstan carried out in 1994 revealed that the unstable economic situation was the main reason for their departure. Ethnic discrimination in employment and promotion at places of work took third place among the reasons for emigration from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, according to an expert surveillance carried out in 1999.
The emigration of the population from Central Asian countries continued to grow until the mid-1990s and began to slow down in the latter half of the decade. On the one hand, it was due to the numerical reduction of the non-indigenous people, and on the other, a relative stabilization of the political and economic situation. However, there were periodic increases of the migration outflow of the population caused by the aggravation of the internal political situation, which was observed in the region in the latter half of the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000th.
An absolute majority of migrants from Central Asia moved to Russia. By 2000 Russia accounted for 93.2% of all migrants from Kazakhstan, 84.2% from Kyrgyzstan, 76.9% from Uzbekistan, 71.7% from Tajikistan and 67.5% from Turkmenistan.
In all, migration of the population from Central Asia to Russia throughout the period from 1991 to 2008 amounted to 3,535,500 people, 50% were from Kazakhstan, 24% from Uzbekistan, 11% from Kyrgyzstan, 10.8% from Tajikistan and 4.3% from Turkmenistan.
In 1991-1999 the population of the Russian Federation increased, due to migration from Central Asian countries, by three million Russians, 243,000 Ukrainians and 30,400 Byelorussians. As a result, migration processes have become the main factors which have radically changed the ethno-confessional structure of the Central Asian states.
Changes of Ethno-confessional Structure
In each Central Asian country the transformation of the ethno-confessional structure was determined by a specific combination of migration and demographic factors.
In Kazakhstan among these factors were mass migration of "non-indigenous" ethnoses, which comprised more than half of its
population by the late-1980s, and the low natural population surplus of Kazakhs themselves. In 1989 - 1999 the population of Kazakhstan decreased by 7.7% due to emigration, the number of Russians living there dropped by 26.1%, and the number of Kazakhs increased by 22.9%. As a result, the share of Russians diminished from 37.4 to 30%, and that of Kazakhs increased from 40.1 to 53.4%. They became, for the first time from 1926, the ethnic majority on the territory of the republic.
Curtailment of the Russian population and increase of the title population of Kazakhstan continued in subsequent years. By 2007 the number of Russians in the republic decreased to 3.9 million (by 34% as compared to 1989), and Kazakhs grew to 9.3 million (by 16.8%).
Apart from Russians, curtailment of the population concerned other non-indigenous ethnoses of Kazakhstan. By the end of the 1990s the number of Ukrainians and Byelorussians decreased by almost two-thirds.
The indices of the natural surplus of the indigenous ethnoses remained high. The number of Dungans increased by 23.3%, Uighurs by 15.9%, Uzbeks by 12%. In all, the indigenous population of Kazakhstan grew by 22%, and its share from 44 to 59.8%.
Similarly, the correlation of ethnic groups historically embracing Christianity and Islam has also changed. In 1989 there were 7, 640,600 Muslims and 8, 258,400 Christians living on the territory of Kazakhstan (47.3% and 51 %, respectively). By the end of the 1990s these main ethno-confessional groups changed places. According to the 1999 population census, there were 9,077,800 Muslims and 5,593,200 Christians in the country (60.7% and 37.5%, respectively). On the eve of the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. Christians predominated among the inhabitants of Kazakhstan, which was unique
in Central Asia, whereas ten years later Muslims comprised a majority in the republic's population.
Among the specific features of the ethno-demographic development of Kyrgyzstan were the higher rates of increase of the indigenous and curtailment of the non-indigenous population. In 19891999 the number of the population in the republic grew from 4.3 to 4.8 million (by 13.3%). The number of Kyrgyz increased by 40.3% (from 2.2 to 3.1 million), and Russians dwindled by 34.2% (from 917,000 to 603,000). Among the biggest ethnoses of Kyrgyzstan, the number of Russians decreased and they held third place and Uzbeks second place in 1999. According to the data of the Russian foreign ministry, there were 470,000 Russians (about 9%) by January 1, 2007, a decrease by 22% compared to 1999, or 50% compared to 1989.
The numerical strength of other non-indigenous peoples decreased more rapidly than that of the Russians. For example, the number of Jews dropped by four times (from 5,600 to 1,600).
All indigenous ethnoses demonstrated considerable growth, but not as great as that of the Kyrgyz. The total number of the indigenous ethnoses of Kyrgyzstan increased from 2.92 to 3.98 million people, and the non-indigenous ones decreased from 1.33 million to 846,000.
One of the consequences of a sharp drop in the number of people of non-indigenous nationalities was a considerable increase of Muslims and decrease of Christians. During the period between 1989 and 1999 the share of Christians in Kyrgyzstan decreased from 26.7 % to 14%, or almost twice, and Muslims grew from 71% to 84%. Thus, the population of the republic became more monoconfessional.
On the whole, the increase of the indigenous and decrease of non-indigenous population in Kyrgyzstan proceeded more rapidly than in Kazakhstan, which was conditioned by a greater socio-economic crisis. The place of Russians in the southern districts of the republic
was taken by Uzbeks, as a result interethnic contradictions became much sharper, which led to the bloody conflict in Osh in 1990.
In Tajikistan which had lived through the bloodiest and bitterest civil war in the post-Soviet area the migration flow of the non-indigenous population assumed the character of an avalanche in the early 1990s. As a result, the Republic of Tajikistan has become one of the most mono-ethnic and monoconfessional states of the CIS. In 1989-2000 its population increased by 20.3% and reached 6.1 million.
Non-indigenous ethnoses have left Tajikistan almost completely, their share having dropped from 12% to 1.7%.
In the post-Soviet period Muslims have become almost the single confessional group of the republic. In 1989-2000 their share grew from 89.5% to 98.5%, and the share of Christians decreased from 9.6% to 1.2%. Thus, the population of Tajikistan is now almost 100 percent Moslem.
The transformation of the ethnoconfessional structure of Uzbekistan proceeded more smoothly. The emigration of non-indigenous people did not have a mass character, which was due to a relatively more stable political and economic situation. Despite a rapid growth of the numerical strength of the title ethnos at the turn of the century, there was a rather big European population which played a no small role in the country's socio-economic progress.
During the period between 1989 and 1999 the population of Uzbekistan grew from 19.8 million to 24.1 million, or by 22%. This was due to the demographic dynamics of the two most numerous ethnoses - Uzbek and Russian, which comprised about 80 percent of all inhabitants of the country. By 1999 the number of Uzbeks increased by 32.5% (from 14.1 to 18.7 million) and that of Russians decreased by 26.9% (from 1.6 to 1.2 million). By the data of the foreign ministry of the Russian Federation, there were about one million Russians living in
the republic, or about four percent of its population, by the end of 2002. Among the non-indigenous people the number of Germans and Jews decreased the most noticeably (by 4.5 times). By the end of the 1990s the share of most of them did not exceed one percent. This was largely due to emigration.
The confessional homogeneity of the population in Uzbekistan has grown to a greater degree than in Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, where there is a big non-Moslem population, but it was not as great as in Tajikistan. In the period between 1989 and 1999 the number of Muslims grew by 29%, and that of Christians decreased by 28%. As a result the share of Muslims increased from 86.4 to 91.5%, and that of Christians decreased from 9.6 to 5.8%.
On the whole, the rates of the depopulation of the non-indigenous ethnoses in Uzbekistan were lower than in most of its neighbors in Central Asia, which could be explained by a more stable political and economic situation in the republic.
Turkmenistan is the most complex country as far as the ethno-demographic processes going there are concerned. This is largely connected with the problem of demographic statistics after the disintegration of the U.S.S.R.
According to the data of the population census of 1995, the increase of the indigenous population and decrease of the non-indigenous population proceeded rapidly, just as in other Central Asian countries. The total number of the republican population increased by 26% during the period between 1989 and 1995, and the number of Turkmen grew by 34.1%.
If the data of the 1995 population census are really true, the growth rates of Turkmenistan's population in 1991-1994 increased almost twice, as compared to the 1989-1991 period (from 2.5 to 4.65%), which showed almost unprecedented demographic
"explosion." Russians occupied considerable place in the ethnic structure of Turkmenistan's population, but their share decreased from 9.5 to 6.7%. The share of other non-indigenous people was less than one percent by the mid-1990s. On the whole, the numerical strength of the non-indigenous population of Turkmenistan decreased from 474,000 to 429,000, that is, by 9.6%, and its share dwindled from 13.5 to 9.7%.
Proceeding from these incomplete data, the number of Russians in Turkmenistan can be estimated at about 110,000. Thus, during the six years from the 1995 census up to 2001, the number of Russians decreased by 2.5-3 times, which could be compared to their emigration from Tajikistan during the civil war there.
The number of Turkmen has increased considerably, especially against the backdrop of other ethnoses. According to official figures, their number in 1989-2001 grew from 2.5 to five million, or twice as many, which exceeds all real possibilities of demographic growth.
On the whole, by the beginning of the 200th Turkmenistan became one of the most mono-ethnic and monoconfessional states of the region. The title ethnos (Turkmen) accounted for more than three-quarters Muslims, that is, more than nine-tenths of all inhabitants of the republic. And by the number of ethnic Russians Turkmenistan took the
last but one place in Central Asia (Tajikistan is the last).
* * *
During the first fifteen years after the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. the change in the ethnoconfessional structure of the sovereign states of Central Asia was characterized by the absolute and relative numerical strength of the indigenous ethnoses and a reduction of that of the non-indigenous ones. The growth rates of the title population were, as a rule, higher than those of other ethnoses, and the number of
Russians decreased slower than that of other groups of the non-indigenous population.
The reduction of the Russian population in the countries of the region proceeded unevenly. The total number of Russians in Central Asia during the period between 1989 and 2000 decreased by about 29%, in all, in Kazakhstan by 26.1% and in Uzbekistan by 26.9%, in Kyrgyzstan by 34.2%, in Turkmenistan by almost three times and in Tajikistan by 5.7 times, that is, much more rapidly than for the region as a whole. The rates of reduction of the numerical strength of the European population were higher in countries with a more difficult political and socio-economic situation and lower where it was more stable.
However, the emigration of Russians from Central Asia, although on a mass scale, his not assumed the character of total flight, except in Tajikistan. More than half of the Russian population living on the territory of the Central Asian countries by the time of the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., stayed where they were so far. After Ukraine, where there are about 11 million ethnic Russians, Central Asia is a demographic reservoir of the Russian population living abroad second in importance (about five million), most of which live in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
The surplus rates of the title ethnoses also differed considerably. The number of Kazakhs has increased by 22.9%, Uzbeks - by 32.5%, Turkmen - by 34.1%, Kyrgyz - by 40.3%, and Tajiks - by 54.4%. That is, the numerical strength of the Central Asian ethnoses grew 1.42.4 times faster in the south of Central Asia than in the north (in Kazakhstan), which resulted in the further increase of the agrarian population in the south. In all, the share of the indigenous population of Central Asia increased from 69.6% to 81.2%, and non-indigenous population decreased from 28.6% to 17.3%, or by 1.7 times.
Simultaneously with the reduction of the European population the rapid demographic growth of the most numerous people of the region - Uzbek - was observed. After the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. the Uzbek became the second biggest ethnos in Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, having outpaced the Russian. At the turn of the century there were 370,700 Uzbeks in Kazakhstan, 635,000 in Kyrgyzstan, about 400,000 in Turkmenistan, and 936,700 in Tajikistan. It should be said that the real figure of Uzbeks living in border districts was much higher.
Summing up the results of the ethnodemographic development of the sovereign states of Central Asia it should be said that their population has become much more mono-ethnic and monoconfessional. By the middle of the first decade of this century the title ethnos accounted for more than half the population of Kazakhstan, two-thirds of the population of Kyrgyzstan, and more than three-quarters of the population of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The share of Muslims was still higher: more than 60% of the inhabitants of Kazakhstan, 80% in Kyrgyzstan, and 90% in other states of Central Asia. Due to a reduction of the share of the European population the ethnoconfessional image of the region has acquired more "Asian" and Muslim features, which now looks more like the neighboring countries of the Middle East.
"Vostok (Orient) ", Moscow, 2011, No 5, pp. 98-114.
