TO TRUST “DIGITAL GOLD” OR NOT? THE BITCOIN AS AN INVESTMENT ASSET Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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4 Sbu Quants Ride Into Crypto Wild West in the 500% Bitcoin Comeback, Bloomberg, 17 Dec., 2020, https://www.bloomberg. com/news/articles/2020-12-17/quants-ride-into-crypto-wild-west-in-the-500-bitcoin-comeback

5 Sbu Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going Up?, Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/why-does-bitcoin-keep-going-up-5092683

6 Sbu https://www.investopedia.com/managing-wealth/modern-portfolio-theory-why-its-still-hip/, https://www.investopedia.com/ terms/m/modernportfoliotheory.asp, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientfrontier.asp

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8 Sbu Ray Dalio. What I Think of Bitcoin. Bridgewater Associates, January 28, 2021, https://www.bridgewater.com/re-search-and-insights/ray-dalio-what-i-think-of-bitcoin

1. Hwpwuibrnjwti L. (2017).^p^rnnwp- 5. dmjptibp|i i^btinifti'tip: «Un|wq.wj|i i^inqbp»,

pb ^muw^mb «^ni.^», <^S< «UUPbm» hbmwqnmwl|wti L|btimpnti, https://asue.am/amberd/publications/the/crypto/ currency/phenomenon/money/of/the/future/or/clas-sic/balloon 6.

2. Efficient Frontier, Investopedia, https://www. investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientfrontier.asp

3. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modern- 7. portfoliotheory.asp

4. Modern Portfolio Theory: Why It's Still Hip, Investopedia,

https://www.investopedia.com/managing-wealth/ modern-portfolio-theory-why-its-still-hip/

Quants Ride Into Crypto Wild West in the 500% Bitcoin Comeback Bloomberg, 17 Dec., 2020,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti-

cles/2020-12-17/quants-ride-into-crypto-wild-west-

in-the-500-bitcoin-comeback

Ray Dalio, What I Think of Bitcoin. Bridgewa-

ter Associates, January 28, 2021,

https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-in-

sights/ray-dalio-what-i-think-of-bitcoin

Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going

Up?, Investopedia,

https://www.investopedia.com/why-does-bitcoin-keep-going-up-5092683

Нарек КАРАПЕТЯН

Эксперт исследовательского центра «Амберд», АГЭУ,

аспирант

ФИНАНСОВАЯ СИСТЕМА

ДОВЕРЯТЬ «ЦИФРОВОМУ ЗОЛОТУ» ИЛИ НЕТ? БИТКОИН КАК ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫЙ АКТИВ

Цена на биткойн в 2020 году выросла в три раза за счет увеличения денежной массы ведущими центральными банками и ускорения инфляционных ожиданий, выступив в качестве защиты от инфляции. Тем не менее, принимая за основу краткосрочную историю, по расчетам автора, биткойн не превосходит золото или индекс американского фондового рынка Б&Р 500 по параметрам риска и прибыли. Если также принять во внимание связанные с нормативной базой и другие риски (которые, кстати, двусторонние), он продолжает оставлять впечатление излишне «экзотического» финансового инструмента, который нельзя рассматривать как надежная инвестиция, но может быть интересным вариантом для крайне неопределенного будущего в долгосрочной перспективе ...

Ключевые слова: защита от инфляции, современная монетарная теория, оптимальный портфель, нормативная база

Narek KARAPETYAN

Expert at «Amberd» Research Center, ASUE,

PhD student

FINANCIAL SYSTEM

TO TRUST "DIGITAL GOLD" OR NOT? THE BITCOIN AS AN INVESTMENT ASSET

The price of bitcoin has soared threefold in 2020 gaining support from increasing money supply by leading central banks and accelerating inflation expectations - while placing itself as an inflation hedge. Nevertheless, even looking into the short history, according to the author's calculations, Bitcoin does not surpass gold or US stock market S&P 500 index by its risk-reward parameters. If we also take into account risks coming from regulatory frameworks and other risks (which are, by the way, two-sided), it continues to look as an overly "exotic" instrument, which can't be considered as a reliable investment but may be an interesting option for the highly unknown future for the long run...

Keywords: Inflation hedge, modern monetary theory, optimal portfolio, regulatory framework