Научная статья на тему 'Theoretical and methodological aspects of municipal development under the New Normal'

Theoretical and methodological aspects of municipal development under the New Normal Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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Ключевые слова
New Normal / uncertainty of development / municipal development / institution / evolutionary system / chorology / новая реальность / неопределенность развития / муниципальное развитие / институт / эволюционная система / хорология

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Polina E. Animitsa

The New Normal is notable for considerable uncertainty of socioeconomic development of the country, its regions and municipalities. The paper aims to identify a set of theoretical and methodological techniques employed to study the functioning and development of municipalities and municipal development in general. The research demonstrates that ideas and tenets of institutionalism and evolutionary economics, as well as the economic analysis concepts are capable of forming a theoretical-methodological platform for determining the specifics of the municipal development under the New Normal. Methodological basis of the research rests on the heuristic, situation, chorological and other approaches. In terms of methods, the paper benefits from the use of abstract thinking, analysis and synthesis. The research highlights that the application of various spatial theories keeps on being relevant to study the development of municipalities and their systems in the context of highly disputable and uncertain priorities, directions, goals and objectives of national and regional development. The author argues that overcoming the problems addressed in the paper will favour a more justified specification of the most important thrusts of municipal economy and policy. The findings can help improve the strategic plans of municipalities by tailoring them, i. e. choosing by each city own avenues, forms, and methods of moving towards the declared goals.

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Теоретико-методологические аспекты обоснования муниципального развития в условиях новой реальности

В условиях новой реальности наблюдается высокая неопределенность социально-экономического развития страны, ее регионов и муниципальных образований. Исследование направлено на выявление совокупности теоретико-методологических приемов, привлекаемых для изучения функционирования и развития муниципальных образований и муниципального развития в целом, и аргументацию их значимости. Показано, что идеи и константы институциональной и эволюционной теорий, а также концептуальные установки экономического анализа могут сформировать теоретико-методологическую платформу для выявления особенностей развития муниципальных образований в условиях новой реальности. Методологическая база исследования включает теоретические положения эвристического, ситуационного, хорологического и других подходов. Методика работы опирается на использование преимуществ абстрактного мышления, мыслительных операций анализа и синтеза. Подчеркивается, что не теряет своей актуальности и применение различных пространственных теорий для исследования развития муниципальных образований и их систем в условиях дискуссионности и неопределенности приоритетов, отдельных направлений, целей и задач развития страны и ее регионов. Решение обозначенных в статье проблем, по мнению автора, должно способствовать более обоснованному формированию основных направлений муниципальной экономики и политики. Результаты исследования позволяют актуализировать стратегические планы муниципальных образований на основе их индивидуализации, т. е. выбора каждым городом собственных способов, форм и методов движения к заявленной цели.

Текст научной работы на тему «Theoretical and methodological aspects of municipal development under the New Normal»

DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2021-22-4-4 JEL classification: O18, R11

Polina E. Animitsa Institute of Economics (Ural branch of RAS), Ekaterinburg, Russia

Theoretical and methodological aspects of municipal development under the New Normal

Abstract. The New Normal is notable for considerable uncertainty of socioeconomic development of the country, its regions and municipalities. The paper aims to identify a set of theoretical and methodological techniques employed to study the functioning and development of municipalities and municipal development in general. The research demonstrates that ideas and tenets of institutionalism and evolutionary economics, as well as the economic analysis concepts are capable of forming a theoretical-methodological platform for determining the specifics of the municipal development under the New Normal. Methodological basis of the research rests on the heuristic, situation, chorological and other approaches. In terms of methods, the paper benefits from the use of abstract thinking, analysis and synthesis. The research highlights that the application of various spatial theories keeps on being relevant to study the development of municipalities and their systems in the context of highly disputable and uncertain priorities, directions, goals and objectives of national and regional development. The author argues that overcoming the problems addressed in the paper will favour a more justified specification of the most important thrusts of municipal economy and policy. The findings can help improve the strategic plans of municipalities by tailoring them, i. e. choosing by each city own avenues, forms, and methods of moving towards the declared goals.

Keywords: New Normal; uncertainty of development; municipal development; institution; evolutionary system; chorology.

Acknowledgements: The research is prepared in accordance with the state assignment for the Institute of Economics (Ural Branch of RAS) for 2020-2022.

For citation: Animitsa P. E. (2021). Theoretical and methodological aspects of municipal development under the New Normal. Journal of New Economy, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 62-77. DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2021-22-4-4 Received June 15, 2021.

Introduction

Scholars and experts have not yet had time to fully comprehend the New Normal in the era of the pandemic that threatens the lives of millions of people, sources of their income, and the global economy as a whole. To this must be added that unpredictable 'black swans', the forerunners of out-of-the-ordinary events, rare and extreme phenomena and catastrophes, increasingly enter the global economic space, territories of countries and regions, foster instability and uncertainty of socioeconomic development, negate efforts to provide long-term forecasts and plans [Taleb, 2018].

However, we can confidently say that the new society will not be industrial or postindustrial [Bell, 1973, 1976], modernist or postmodernist [Crook, Pakulski, Waters, 1992; Lash, 1990; Lash, Friedman, 1992], society of the first, second, or third waves [Toffler, 1980]. It will be different, and its contours are just being formed. The ruling elite has not been able to respond to the new challenges, and Russian science has not yet paid due attention to the economic processes taking place at various territorial levels.

According to Balatsky and Ekimova [2021, p. 19], "a number of circumstances lead to the denial of economic and social prognosis as such. <...> We are experiencing the end of the forecasting era". The validity of this statement is illustrated not only by the growing turbulence of the world and national economies, but also by more than modest successes in the field of long-term economic growth (unfortunately, Russia lags about two times behind the global growth pace), widening technological gap, exhaustion of existing incentives for economic dynamics, population loss in the overwhelming number of municipalities, reliance of their budgets on subsidies and the inability to provide their citizens with a decent quality of life, as well as the unpredictability and unavoidability of the frequent force majeure circumstances that radically violate the development plans, projects and forecasts of both the entire national economy and numerous municipalities.

Under the growing uncertainty and even the riskiness of socioeconomic municipal development, an important role is started to be played by tactical short-term, adaptive, actively interactive actions resulting from the analysis of the current decision flow, not the strategic actions [Mintzberg, Quinn, Ghoshal, 2001, pp. 24-25].

Under the New Normal, we see an increasing importance of studying individual features of independently existing municipalities. We are talking not only about tailoring cities' (municipalities') development strategies [Bochko, Zakharchuk, 2020], but also about an individual approach to studying the economy of the entire cohort of municipalities.

The purpose of the study is to analyse and summarise theoretical and methodological results that have developed in the New Normal conditions, which will allow updating scientific ideas about municipalities and municipal development in general.

Methodology of the municipal development research

Researchers of municipal economy and municipal politics have mainly a microscopic look at the processes of territorial development taking place in municipalities, one of the important forms of human life spatial organisation [Animitsa, Silin, 2021].

The data of Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) indicate that the number of municipalities in the country decreased for various reasons from 23,907 in 2010 to 20,846 in 2020. These numerous local territorial systems mainly resolve issues of local importance, concentrate important components of the reproduction cycles of social, economic, demographic and other potentials that ensure the vital activity of the country as a whole, its regions and settlements.

As Leksin and Shvetsov [2001, pp. 13-14] rightly point out, "the most important daily life for the vast majority of people takes place in municipalities. <...> Up to 80 % of all 'free' (guaranteed by the Constitution of the Russian Federation) social services and more than 90 % of paid services are provided to nearly every resident of Russia exclusively at the place of permanent residence".

Makarov believes that in the world and Russia "municipal science is actively developing as a special kind of knowledge that applies social, human and natural sciences in their unity to the analysis of municipal processes, diverse phenomena of a local nature" [Gladyshev et al., 2003, p. 4].

By the beginning of the 21st century, the municipal economy as the core of municipal science had already been researched for many years by economists, lawyers, sociologists, historians, etc. A considerable amount of knowledge had been accumulated, which led scientists to apply a complex of various theories (concepts, doctrines, ideas) and methodologies for studying such a complex problem as municipal development [Filippov, Avdeeva, Lavrova, 2013; Animitsa, Silin, Rabrodova, 2015]. In the most general form, municipal economic development is understood as the process of certain changes taking place in the space of a municipality aimed at increasing its economic, social and environmental potential and ensuring the growth of the local community level and quality of life.

Nowadays, the economic research, including within municipal economics, the most actively employs the ideas and scientific views of institutional, evolutionary and neoclassical theories [Maevskiy, 2003; Kleyner, 2004].

At the current level of knowledge about municipal development, the use of these theories is mainly applied, instrumental in nature, however, helps to better understand

the essence of local problems and find the most effective ways to solve them at turning points in the development of the country, its regions and municipalities. We will highlight the key features of institutionalism and evolutionary economics, which are actively 'working' for the benefits of the formation and expansion of knowledge about municipal development.

Institutional economics. The foundations of institutionalism in the economics were laid by outstanding scientists, including Nobel laureates (Jan Tinbergen, Gun-nar Myrdal, Ronald Coase, Douglas North). This shows clearly the relevance of the institutional scientific approach in the study of economic processes in time and space, including at the regional and municipal levels. Currently, as Zubarevich [2010, p. 5] rightly noted that regionalists are "at an early stage ... of describing an object" in the context of institutionalism.

Institutionalism as a school of economics originated and was formed in the USA in the 1920s and 1930s to investigate the totality of socioeconomic factors (institutions) over time, as well as to explore the possibilities of economy control by society [Popov, 2015].

In recent years, the institutional approach has spread widely in domestic economics, including in regional economics. The studies of Abalkin, Maevskiy, Makarov, Pol-terovich, Lvov, Tatarkin, Autonomov, Grinberg, Kleyner, Rimashevskaya have a decisive influence on the development of the institutionalism ideas in Russia.

The combination of many diverse institutions at the federal, regional and municipal, as well as sectoral levels has an ever-increasing influence on the economic development processes, accelerating or slowing down the economy movement [Rodríguez-Pose, 2020].

There is still no entire agreement on the definition of institute, although its various interpretations, brief and extended, are close to each other. Taking into account the evolution of this concept from Hobbes and Veblen to the present day, its brief formulation, shared by the author, was given by Ural scientists: "an institute is an established norm (formal / informal) of interaction between economic agents" [Tatarkin, Popov, Vlasov, 2008, p. 8].

Since different researchers put different meanings into the concept of institution [Inshakov, 2003; Ostrom, 2007; Rodríguez-Pose, 2013], we will provide our vision of institutional economics with an emphasis on its use in municipal study. We adhere to the following understanding: (i) institutions are the key primary components of any economic system, including those formed at the lower territorial level; (ii) the economy, including the municipal economy, is an open and evolving system functioning in a certain natural and social environment, subject to technological changes and involved in extensive social, ethnodemographic, political, power and other

relationships; (iii) institutionalists actively use ideas, concepts, views, methods and empirical data of other sciences to achieve an in-depth understanding of institutions and human behaviour related to their activities.

Analysis of the research papers suggests that institutions (in the context of the municipal economy) should be understood as a set of norms and techniques created by people, traditions and customs, habits and stereotypes, as well as social, legal, political, administrative and other rules that regulate the use of various resources of the municipality and the exchange, distribution of incomes and expenses in its space. Each municipality obtains its own specific rather stable institutional environment, when the totality of the most common fundamental social, political, legal, and economic rules [Auzan, 2005, p. 38] is intertwined with local regulations, agreements, contracts, and informal rules, including habits, judgments, customs, traditions. Rationality, which is the basis of the institutional economics, remains an important principle of the municipal economic development [Sukharev, 2008, p. 123].

A very significant factor in the municipal development is the general trust (as an institution) to municipal authorities and management, with whom citizens have to deal in everyday life [Rozinskaya, Rozinskiy, 2015]. Lack of trust in public institutions, professionalism of state and municipal officials and objectivity of court decisions negatively affects the business climate in the municipality, prevents the rapid resolution of emerging local issues and disputes, and destroys many promising initiatives.

Evolutionary economics. The interpretation of a market economy localised in the space of a municipality cannot be adequate without taking into account the principles of evolutionary economics. It emerged as an independent school of economics in 1973, when the paper Toward an Evolutionary Theory of Economic Capabilities was published by Nelson and Winter [1973]. Scientists have proposed a fundamentally new scientific approach to explain economic phenomena and processes that goes back to the views of Thomas Malthus and Charles Darwin. Evolutionary theory, they emphasised, "is elastic and takes various forms depending on the purpose of a particular study" [Nelson, Winter, 2002, p. 31].

Nelson and Winter argue that the general term characterising the behaviour of any enterprise (firm), and in our case, each municipality, is "routine", i.e. following the usual methods of organising production or management of a particular municipality. Scientists have stated that in the evolutionary theory "these routines play the role that genes play in biological evolutionary theory", they are "integral characteristics of an organism and determine its possible behavior" [Nelson, Winter, 2002, p. 31]. At the same time, routines act as the memory of an organisation (firm) and especially of a settlement, tiny or huge. In order for the organisation to continue to work stably, all its members must know their business as it is defined by routines.

According to the evolutionary theory, skills and vocation (beruf) play an important role in the behaviour of individuals, i.e. the potential to carry out a sequence of coordinated actions leading to the goal achievement. This theory emphasises the "implication of knowledge" underlying the skill, the causal depth of knowledge. Innovations in the economic system change the routine, but the consequences of their application are difficult to predict, because they mostly consist of "new combinations" (according to Schumpeter) of existing routines. At the same time, it is believed that organisations (firms), as well as various types of municipalities, at any time have a variety of potential opportunities, and adhere to certain procedures and decision-making rules that determine the actions of actors under given external conditions.

Summarising what has been said so far, we will define the essence of the evolutionary approach to economic processes, including processes unfolding in the space of municipalities. Firstly, it is impossible to share a huge array of discrete data, knowledge belonging to numerous individual agents (firms) strangers to each other (uncertainty in Hayek's sense [2001]). Secondly, the limitation of information arises due to the fundamental uncertainty of the future, which is never fully known (uncertainty in Schumpeter's sense). Thirdly, the evolutionary approach to the study of municipal economy assumes that the policy in it is implemented by economic entities facing double uncertainty (dispersed knowledge and an uncertain future). The problem is how the participants in the economic process will be able to overcome the double uncertainty in different situations. Unlike neoclassicists, evolutionists emphasise the inevitability of preserving institutional diversity.

The theory of economic analysis. This theory is fundamental for any scientific research in the field of economic activity, including at the municipal level, and is disclosed the most abundantly by Schumpeter. He identified history, statistics, and theory as the research fields of economic analysis, and later added economic sociology to them [Schumpeter, 2001, pp. 14-15].

According to Schumpeter, reasons to select economic history as the first field were the following. First, the process of economic science itself is a historical process. Without its comprehension, no one will be able to understand the economic phenomena of any era, including the modern one. Second, historical analysis inevitably reflects institutional facts that are not purely economic. Third, most of the serious errors of economic analysis are caused rather by a lack of historical experience than by a defect in any other tool from the economist's arsenal [Schumpeter, 2001, p. 15].

Statistics, Schumpeter argues, "are needed not only to explain the facts, but also to establish exactly what is subject to explanation" [Schumpeter, 2001, p. 16]. Mastering modern methods of statistical analysis is a necessary, although, in his opinion, an insufficient condition for accurate economic research.

Economic theory, like the theories of other sciences, cannot avoid simplifications, models and schemes reflecting some aspects of reality, while some of its provisions must be taken on faith. Schumpeter calls such propositions hypotheses, axioms, postulates, premises, principles, whereas theses that come as a result of research, using an accurate analytical procedure, grow into theorems [Schumpeter, 2001, pp. 18-19]. He puts forward generalised abstraction as a level of creating a tool, a mechanism of economic analysis, which formally always works the same way [Schumpeter, 2001, p. 19] and arises when similar properties manifest during the consideration of individual events or phenomena, if such schemes are interrelated.

These three fundamental research fields partially complement each other. At the same time, Schumpeter's heuristic rule implies that abstract rules should be derived from the observed data, and then checked against them.

The justification of the fourth fundamental field, economic sociology, is the following argument: "economic analysis examines the sustainable behaviour of people and its economic consequences; economic sociology studies the question of how they came to this particular way of behaviour. If human behaviour is understood broadly enough, including not only actions, motives and inclinations, but also public institutions that influence economic behaviour, such as the state, inheritance law, contract, etc., then this definition can be considered exhaustive" [Schumpeter, 2001, pp. 24-25].

It is profoundly important that the economic analysis should demonstrate whether the economy is developing effectively in the space of a municipality, whether sustainable economically and socially significant results have been achieved. In particular, in the course of economic development, it is important not just to provide citizens with work, but also to ensure permanent employment with a high salary level. Infrastructure should provide local community with not just services, but services of due variety and quality. It is necessary to create a favourable and stimulating municipal environment in which an individual, a resident of a municipality can improve his economic well-being, and where entrepreneurship flourishes, business is attracted, and new jobs are created, etc.

The theory of heuristic search is applicable to study some problems of municipal economic development. Heuristics (from the ancient Greek supioKW - to find, invent) is a set of methodological rules, logical techniques based on intuition, experience, resourcefulness, accounting for errors, helping to find the truth and settle problems, the exact way of settling which is not known. This is "any principle or method that contributes to reducing the average search for a solution" [Newell, Shaw, Simon, 1962]. This theory is actively used in a strategy for the development of a municipality. Heuristic principles, for example, are applicable in determining and

evaluating its strengths and weaknesses (the SWOT analysis), as well as in selecting an organisational structure adequate to its strategy. The application of the heuristic approach is connected with a more general problem of creating the so-called artificial intelligence.

Spatial theories. When researching and designing the municipal economy, special attention is paid to spatial theories, because space (territory) is the most significant, basic characteristic of a municipality [Guastella, Oueslati, Pareglio, 2019]. The territory is a place of concentration of resources necessary for municipal development; it is here that economic (production) activities are performed. Considering the importance of spatial theories for the economic development of municipalities, it should be borne in mind that these entities (cities and villages) are spatially separated economic units that have comparative advantages and can interact with each other as partners or competitors [He et al., 2017; Modai-Snir, van Ham, 2018; Schmidt, Siedentop, Fina, 2018].

The location theory in economics was developed exclusively as a component of microeconomics, in particular, the economics of the firm. The choice of the company's location is based on such qualitative characteristics of the space as the location of resources, the location of production, the location of markets, the transport infrastructure [Filippov, Avdeeva, Lavrova, 2013, p. 54]. The main criterion for making a choice is the possibility of making a profit. From the viewpoint of company's economy, the local community is considered as the external environment of the company. The location for a settlement (city, village) has had a significant impact on the nature of people's economic activity for centuries. Villages appeared and developed where natural conditions favoured agricultural production. Cities arose in those territories where it was possible to best meet the corresponding needs of people, in particular the need for protection from external dangers, in trade activities, etc. [Animitsa, Vlasova, 2010, pp. 82-92].

The established way of life, the system of values, the specialisation of a municipality's economy largely depends on its spatial boundaries, its location even today. Experience shows that in the current environment, the focus in location decisionmaking is shifting from firms to local communities. The choice of location is considered not as a sole decision of an entrepreneur, but as a result of negotiations between the entrepreneur and the relevant local authorities, representatives of public organisations.

In particular, Perroux's growth poles theory, which is based on spreading the impulses of economic development, on the synchronisation of settlement development in territorial, sectoral and temporal aspects [Perroux, 1983], and the concept of urban agglomerations, which spotlights the opinion of residents of urban

settlements that are part of the agglomeration, both highlight the uniqueness of the territory, the exclusivity of local communities, and their difference in competitiveness [Kolyasnikov, 2015].

Thus, the application of different theories to explore economic reality is based not only on epistemological (cognitive), but also on ontological (fundamental, natural) causes and factors.

However, in the conditions of growing uncertainty, the listed theories cannot build up complete resistance to new challenges. Extraordinary unexpected changes in the conditions and environment of the municipalities functioning and development make it necessary to search for such conceptual and methodological research settings that could 'work' within the New Normal.

In particular, certain difficulties arise with long-term forecasting and strategic planning of municipal development. All this requires not only updating the strategic plans of cities, but also tailoring them. The update, while preserving individual approach, takes it to a new level of development [Zengerling, 2019].

Tailoring as applied to economic processes is a fairly new concept. Initially, the corresponding term was widely used in social sciences, pedagogy, law, as well as healthcare and psychology, and now it has started penetrating into economic discourse [Bo-chko, Zakharchuk, 2020].

In general, tailoring as highlighting of cities' unique characteristics began to intensify from the second half of the 20th century in connection with scientific, technological and socio-cultural progress. The strengthening of the cities' individuality in their development strategies is associated with the desire of local communities to ensure their well-being by those ways and means that either already exist in the territory or may actually arise.

As noted by Bochko and Zakharchuk [2020], tailoring consists not only in choosing the ultimate goal, but also in the ways, forms and methods of moving towards it. The orientation of ultimate goal is the same for all human communities and implies providing for the well-being of people. But it can be formulated in different ways depending on the degree of satisfaction of existing needs, characteristics of current and prospective interests of social groups, as well as on the availability of labour, material, financial and other resources necessary for their implementation. These conditions imply a disparity in the use of forms and methods to achieve the intended goal, and therefore lead to a variety of strategic plans.

From an organisational standpoint, tailoring strategic plans consists in creating a system of measures for the parallel solution of three large groups of issues related to the local community:

(i) research, identification and compilation of the list of its needs;

(ii) analysis of the structure and volume of its resources (labour, material, financial) and determination of opportunities to achieve the chosen goal;

(iii) development and provision of regulatory support of the ways for meeting its needs.

We consider the methodology of situation analysis and the horological concept as the two methodological approaches that are highly relevant in a continuously changing environment for examining municipal development processes in the conditions of New Normal.

Situation analysis. One of the classical methodological approaches that are in demand for analysing the municipal development is situation analysis (case studies). It allows comprehending the economic nature of municipal development deeper, examining a variety of spatial-temporal situations more closely, including extraordinary ones that develop due to functioning of a real object, in this case a municipality.

The methodology of this approach has a fairly wide application in various scientific disciplines, in professional and discursive environments, although scientists and experts understand it somewhat differently, adapting it to their needs [Glukhov, Koby-shev, Kozlov, 2011; Rozanova, 2011]. Situation analysis has found active application in the business environment as one of the tools of strategic management [Markova, Kuznetsova, 1999; Thompson Jr., Strickland III, 2003; Vrontis, Thrassou, 2006] and strategic marketing [Lamben, 2012]. Baranovskiy and his colleagues argue that "situation analysis allows us to focus on the key aspects of the problem in conditions when there are no clear, unambiguous ideas about it and when the views of experts vary widely enough" [Baranovskiy et al., 2019, p. 12].

The purpose of the relevant analysis of municipalities is to reveal the main features of its internal and external environment, and identify the major factors that most significantly affect its development opportunities and strategic vision. Situation analysis boils down to the fact that in each specific case (in a particular situation), specific research methods and tools should be used. The central factor of this approach is the situation itself, i.e. a set of events, processes, conditions that arose due to circumstances that most strongly affect the municipal development. Having performed a situation analysis, we receive information to accurately determine the expected dynamics of the municipal development and the opportunity to find optimal solutions for management, taking into account the specifics of the place and time.

Situation analysis makes it possible to understand where the municipality is located in the economic space of a region, what is its scale and the potential of its future states, where it can move in the foreseeable future allowing for its development trends, real opportunities and the balance of forces. This research method involves the identification of deviations, i.e. the greatest deviations (including extreme ones) against

the background of general trends and patterns, which allows penetrating far into the essence of municipal development, take into account factors of action and impact, and revealing potential opportunities and threats. One of the standard methods of explaining the current situation is the causal approach, just aimed at finding causal connections and relationships, including in the predicted development. We can argue that researchers of municipalities need to use situation analysis more actively in crisis situations, critical stages of historical development, and other situations (declining living standards and incomes of the population, deterioration of the investment climate, etc.).

Horological concept. In establishing a specific image of a municipality as a typical integral territorial entity (phenomenon), an important role could be played by a fundamental chorological (from ancient Greek x^pos - place) concept parallel to the concept of time - chronological (from ancient Greek xpouos - time).

The horological concept (horological approach) was proposed by Gottner in 1905. It became widespread first in geography, and then in the regional economics, defined as a spatial science [Sukhova, 2018]. The situation changed dramatically in the early 1930s, when this concept was declared 'bourgeois' and the ideological struggle against 'Gottnerianism' began.

In the 1970s, Aslanikashvili and Saushkin came to bitter conclusions: "We made a mistake, - they wrote, - that ... we did not see anything positive in Gottner's horological approach" [Aslanikashvili, Saushkin, 1975]. Despite such circumstances, the horological concept had a significant impact on the scientific views of Russian geographers in the first three decades of the 20th century, and then on the regional economics.

The attention in this concept is focused on the location of an object, in particular, of a specific municipality, and on the identification of its unique, inimitable features formed solely due to the potential of the location. It can be a system of interconnected and intersecting natural-geographical, socio-historical, socio-cultural, industrial-economic and other objects, phenomena, processes, events in the space of a municipality for a certain period of time, which in their interaction provide its historically defined state.

According to Krugman [1991], the peculiarities of the municipality location can be attributed to the factors of the 'first nature', which are given 'from above'. The horo-logical factor, which gives universal importance to spatial properties and relations of economic processes, is not eternal, it changes mainly with the productive infrastructure. It is precisely the rigid binding of a municipality to a certain place that gives it such qualities as stability, i.e. the ability to leave its position and basic properties unchanged when external conditions change, and inertia, understood as the

property of the economic system and its elements to preserve the basic characteristics of movement and position until the external environment, external force interrupts them [Sidnina, 2002, p. 114; Dvoryadkina, 2005].

The stability and inertia of municipalities are also associated with the fact that not all components (elements) of the horological concept are involved in market relations, and some of them cannot be recreated artificially at all. The horological concept in combination with a chronological system of views, as well as with various expert assessments, can be used to choose a rational socioeconomic structure of a municipality in a specific situation, including in conditions of prolonged uncertainty.

Conclusion

To bring the paper to a close, we summarise the main conclusions here.

In a federal state, municipal development becomes the subject of a detailed scientific analysis by representatives of various disciplines, primarily, of social sciences and humanities. It is becoming more and more obvious that numerous municipalities of the country concentrate resources (human, intellectual, informational, etc.) that are necessary not only for responding to the national needs, but also for countering the most serious local problems, noticeably improving the provincial life.

The developing municipal science, the contours of which are already clearly visible, is actively forming its theoretical and methodological basis, accumulating scientific knowledge and facts, designing its own experimental tools and is bringing to the fore the achievements related to the study of local communities. This testifies not only to the improvement of scientific knowledge about municipal development, but also to the emergence of a certain research paradigm and the emergence "on its basis of a more esoteric type of research" [Kuhn, 1975, p. 29].

The New Normal in Russia is a new state of the national economy with low rates of economic growth, the exhaustion of old incentives for economic dynamics, as well as the constant threat of poverty for certain categories of the population, the loss of residents from the vast majority of the country's municipalities, the unpredictability of frequent force majeure circumstances that radically change the plans and forecasts for the economy of the country, its regions and numerous municipalities.

In the new conditions, there is a need for approving theoretical and methodological foundations that can adequately consider and explain all the twists and turns that have arisen in municipal development in recent years, as well as for focusing the efforts of scientists and specialists on finding answers to the formidable challenges of the 21st century.

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Information about the author

Polina E. Animitsa, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Researcher of the Institute of Economics (Ural branch of RAS), 29 Moskovskaya St., Ekaterinburg, 620014, Russia Phone: +7 (343) 371-98-23, e-mail: animitsa.pe@uiec.ru

© Animitsa P. E., 2021

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