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liquidation of TU for the perspective of 10-20 years is perceived to be unlikely due to preservation for this period of the main factors of conflicts/protests of the national community.
Finally, it should be repeated, as it was said about TU in Chechnya and Dagestan, that even a significant reduction of potential of Ingushi terrorist complex will hardly make it unable to commit terrorist acts in the republic and outside its borders. The people "full of hatred" will appear and be at the disposal of TU for many decades. And the problem of republican terrorism will be present to some extent at this time.
And the last remark should be made. The probable correlation of enumerated dynamic scenarios of TU proceeds from a rather sustainable political and social-economic development of the RF. A significant destabilization of Russia is able to raise "vital" resources of the underground in the republic, will provide it with additional historic chances.
Sergey Slutsky."Terroristskoe podpolye na vostoke Severnogo Kavkaza", R-na-D, 2010, p. 161-186.
O. Khushkadamova,
orientalist
THE WOMEN IN THE SYSTEM OF POLITICAL
POWER AND MANAGEMENT IN TAJIKISTAN
The new concept on integrated approach was approved at the forth World Conference of UNO on the women problems and approved in Action program being adopted upon completion of the Conference work. The Peking framework for action (1995) gave a definition of a gender problem, i.e. this is equality of men and women in all the
spheres of life and activity. Its main regulations: 1. Equality of rights. 2. Equality of responsibility. 3. Equality of possibilities. 4. Equal business relations of men and women. Gender policy was being developed and administered in the CIS countries after the Peking conference.
In Tajikistan a civil confrontation took place parallel to attaining independence in contrast to the other CIS countries having worsened, first of all, women status, i.e. those possibilities acquired in the field of women rights as early as during the soviet period lessened gradually. According to General census of population in 1989 25,8% of the leading positions were hold by women in Tajikistan. During the soviet period women traditionally work as the ministers of social security and health public at the high level in the republic, supervised ideology in the party structures up to superior body. In 1989 women amounted to 70,7% among the leaders of the offices and personal departments, nursery schools and children's homes - 94,5%, managers of libraries -62,3% but only 17,1% among the heads of enterprises and organizations of basic industries. But women status in the society was reduced during the period of "glasnost" having brought to quota elimination. The first rather free elections in Tajikistan in 1989-90-s were ample evidence of it. Only 9 women or only 3,9% were among 230 deputes of the Supreme Soviet of the republic.
At the beginning of 90-s the civil war began in the country parallel to attaining independence and the problems being typical for all the wars independent of geography were placed on the agenda. And therefore, it was nothing to do with women and actually with their status, their role in the political processes and system of administration though the women took part in the meetings preceding a political confrontation. And the representatives of the softer sex were among the debased and the killed. Of course, this situation could not but influence on their participation in a decision adoption at all the levels. At the
elections in 1995 women share in bodies of power amounted to 2,8% in the parliament and 8,7% - in local representative bodies of power.
One can also observe evident discrimination in bodies of executive power. In the same year only 3,3% of women were among the first parties and their deputes among women amounted to 5% and 19,4% among the leaders of structural units. The women were chairmen only in two towns out of 68. The men got even those positions hold traditionally by women like deputy-chairman of executive committees on socio-cultural problems.
In 1999 the Republic Tajikistan ratified Convention on "Political rights of women", the International pact on civil and political rights. For the first time the term "gender" was used in governmental acts in September 1998 when approving the National plan of actions of the Republic Tajikistan to enhance a role and a status of women for 1998-2005-ss. This document stipulated "particularly to form personnel reserve in order to nominate in the management structures on a gender basis.
A quota for the women for a post of deputy administrators of public organs, organizations, institutions, enterprises and territories was stipulated by a decree of the President on "Role enhancing in the society" dated 3 December 1999. This decree gave a stimulus to increase a number of women in the system of administration. Women were the chairmen in two khukumats (administrations) before this decree and now their number was increased up to 8. By 2005 15,5% of women were in the management team of organs of government, 7,3% -in the ministers and state committees, 12,3% - in the management team of the President administration and 10,6% - in the organs under the president and government. Women representation was considerably increased in the membership of territorial executive bodies and local bodies of self-government in the townships and villages. Women were chairmen in four towns and districts and in 26,9% of the villages. One
can observe positive growth trends of women among deputy chairmen of the towns and districts - 27,4%.
However, as our analysis shows that mainly lower and middle management were strengthened by women. 20% are the heads of department and administrations in the ministers and agencies and 40% - in some state organs. One woman was deputy chairman of Majilisi namoyandagon (the lower chamber) in the parliament and two women headed the committees; one woman was among the government; three women were among the first leaders of central agencies of administration; four women were the chairmen of the towns and the districts and five women were the presidents of the court. One can observe such pyramid at the local level though the women number was more: 49,% - among deputy chairmen of jamoatov, 35,7% -among deputy administrators of the machinery units of the town and the district and 35,2% - among deputy chairmen of the towns and the districts. The posts of school directors and head doctors were hold by women before changing over a market economy but now there are few of them among these traditional nomenclatures. According to data 2005 the women were only 15,6% and 26,3%, correspondingly. 3,4% of women were among directors of the industries, 4,4% - among administration chairmen and 4,6% - among enterprise administration when women share amounted 30-70%.
A contrastive data analysis of the given elections in the country parliament 1995 and 2000 showed that the situation with respect to women was changed. In 2000 women participated in the elections in three times more in comparison with the previous ones though a number of women-candidates were in ten times less in comparison with the men-candidates. 29 women were among 287 candidates having nominated their candidates for elections for single-seat electoral districts. It's a little bit more 10% of all the self-candidates for
promotion. Only 22 women received a candidate mandate out of 214 candidates; it amounts to 10% of the total number of the candidates. The women were elected into deputes in 4 out of 41 single-seat electoral districts; it also amounts to 10%. The elections in 2000 were also notable for women success achievement being nominated by the political parties. On should note that both in 70-ss and in 90-ss the women representation in the parliaments based on the elective system according to the party (proportional representation) was more everywhere in the major and middle countries of long-standing democracy in comparison with the countries where single-seat electoral (majoritarny) form or type of the elective system was prevailing. 7 independent candidates were supported by no party out of 6 at the elections in 2000. But the experts don't consider it as discrimination according to sex. The men have the analogical index.
These examples are associated with that the situation was stabilized in the country and women participated actively in the elections in 2000 after having signed the peaceful agreement. One should mention the following interesting data: in 1988 there was a record number of women-parliamentarians in the world countries - they amounted to 14,8%. However, the last parliamentary election but one and the new election in 2005 in Tajikistan showed that the parties don't give equal chances for men and women; there aren't many women in the leading party bodies and there are no special programs to promote women into power-holding structures. There is also discrimination approach to assign seat order in the party lists - women don't rank first - doesn't give an opportunity for women to be equal with men.
Women status will be improved and increased in the society in whole if the woman comes into power. Stereotypes with respect to the politicians from their among bothered to realize and understand by women, i.e. it was impossible to persuade women electorate that there
came the other times and now women coming into power can solve their problems proper. And women-deputes having come through a thorny path into the parliament are convinced of it. So, one of deputes-women of Majilisi oli considers that a number of women-parliamentarians will 15 persons in the next elections (now there 11 women in the lower parliament). But to her mind women are to be united, support and understand each other under any circumstances. During a period of transition a work of public non-governmental organizations (NGO) became active where mainly women work. The work in these organizations in the country differed from their activity in the other states of Central Asia during the first years of independence. They pursued the operative object during the first period of their work: dilapidated building restoration, refugee help and support for children-orphans having lost breadwinners during the armed conflict. There were only 3 similar organizations in Tajikistan in 1995, in 1998 - 54, in 2000 - 73 and in 2005 - 152. These data speak about profiliration of these organizations but then non-governmental women organization activity was being changed qualitatively. The cooperation was developed according to a vertical principle during the first years: donor-NGO-task group. With the lapse of time a horizontal principle became priority: round-table conferences, conferences, seminars and corporate projects. At the present NGO number is 15213.
From the beginning of 2000 non-governmental organizations began to be united into coalitions for their interest lobbying, in particular, to increase women representation in bodies of power both appointed and elected though NGO don't politick. Achieving their long-term goal - protection of civil and political rights, civil and legal education, women-leader training and their socialization - they afford a possibility to fulfill oneself for women, i.e. promote their involvement in policy. Meanwhile the cooperation of power and a civil society in the
person of women and international organizations brought to positive trends. So, at the elections in Madjlisi Namoyandagon (the lower chamber of the parliament) 11 women were elected in February 2005 (out of 63 deputes) having amounted to 17,5% of the total number. According to UNO data the laws are elaborated for the benefit the children, i.e. future of the country nation, only when the women amount is no less than 20% among the deputees.
The women representation in the other structures corresponds to approximately the average world indexes: in 2006 more than 15% - on public positions of trust and 24% - among the public officers. The women as the leaders are concentrated in the lower echelon and middle management. In average 20% of women are occupied as heads of department and service chiefs in the ministers and agencies. In high echelons in the parliament - one woman is the deputy chairman of Madjilisa Namoyandagon and two women are at the head of committees. One woman is the vice-premier in the government of the country. Most of all the women participate in decision-making at the local level and in the local administrations. Here the women representation is more than in the bodies of state power. So, 43% -among jamoatov deputes, 34% - deputes of chairmen of the towns and districts and only 9% - the heads of the towns and districts.
Quite naturally that many things depend on the women themselves, their personal participation in their positioning as from NGO, the women organizations -their contribution in improving their image in order to improve status. By the way, the information about the women NGO or the international organizations solving problems of women is seldom published in mass media of the country. The telling illustration of this thesis is the article "Gender. Patriarchate... and irresponsibility". 6-7 persons talk about gender problems in Tajikistan at the instance of the newspaper "Millat" ("Nation") correspondent.
According to the authors the experts solving women problems in the different NGO refused from the participation in discussion. One can summarize their statements-fears by the following way: the society must be patriarchal as it is the basis of our culture; all NGO open feminism questions more in comparison with gender ones; NGO act only because of grants. Though the men agree with that today the woman is a breadwinner but they consider it as a forced temporary factor.
In short, one considers that NGO, mass media and other structures addressing the concerns of gender problems stew in their own juice. It's possible that the international organizations don't prepare the journalists up to the mark writing on the subject of gender themes or how one can explain that a journalist ask a deputy such a question: Why do women become deputes not by means of one-single seat okrugs, i.e. independently but by means of the party lists? But global experience demonstrates factors promoting women representation increasing within higher levels of legislative branch in the countries of "steady" democracy: conscious political will expressed in that the one advances the object to increase women-candidates in the parliaments as a priority of the party policy being elected according to proportional election system (political party quota); the laws demanding that sex ratio in the lists of candidates from the parties would correspond to sex ratio in the country, electoral system change from one-single seat (mazhoritarnogo) for proportional representation. Women movement, politicians and journalists addressing the concerns about a gender aspect should reflect upon these problems. But for the present 612 women hold the leading post in the bodies of state power of the different levels according to a statement of Chairman of committee for women and the family under the government of Republic Tajikistan. Very many women are the leaders of the different offices, head doctors of hospitals, directors of schools and the leaders of the public
organizations. Beginning from 2008 State program "Training, selection and displacement of the leading cadres from the clever women and girls for 2007-2016" is realized. The women amount to 49,8% of the country population.
"Lomonosovskie chteniya: vostokovedenie ", M., 2010, April, p. 199-2006.
S. Luzyanin,
doctor of sciences (history)
E. Safronova,
cand. of sciences (economy)
HYDROTECHNICAL "ATTACK" OF CHINA
IN CENTRAL ASIA: CONSEQUENCES FOR
KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA
China belongs among the states of the eastern Asia being capable of having effect on and already having the marked influence on neighboring countries. Water supply of some territories of Russia and Kazakhstan depend on China to a considerable degree.
There exists contradictive enough water situation in China. On one hand, China takes 5-6 place in volume of renewable water resources in the world (mainly owing to that many littoral territories of the country are characterized with monsoon supply of the rivers when the summer monsoon brings much water and is accompanied with high water and floods). On the face of it there can't be water shortage in China. However, during the period of the winter monsoon there comes a dry season causing a sharp decreasing of the river flowing. So, one can observe water shortage during the dry season even having a rather large quantity of average annual water resources. Besides, water shortage in China like in the most countries of Central Asia is mainly
