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„ „„,„ Baltic Journal of Economic Studies Vol. 3, No. 5, 2017-J--
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2017-3-5-79-83
THE USE OF ECONOMIC RETRO RESEARCH FOR THE METHODOLOGICAL PROVISION OF CAPITALIZATION OF ENTERPRISES
Viktoriia Harkava1, Svitlana Klimenko2
Pylyp Orlyk International Classical University, Ukraine
Abstract. The purpose of the article is to determine indicators that objectively allow attracting own or debt sources for capital expansion of enterprises. Dynamic development of the agro-processing sector of the economy of Ukraine is considered on the basis of interaction of agricultural and processing complexes of Mykolaiv region of Ukraine. Methodology. Determining indicators of formation and use of capital of enterprises is carried out after studying analytical support for the factor evaluation of market trends in the production of processing enterprises of AIC (agro-industrial complex) of Mykolaiv region that has developed processing industry and is based on studies of the period from 2005 to 2009 when a situation regarding the provision of processing enterprises significantly improved but, much as today, the state of business in relation to animal products was ambiguous. Results of the research show that it was expedient to conduct a trend analysis, which purpose is comparison of the volume of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises and the production of core products by processing enterprises, determination of the main trend of dynamics of selected indicators by means of comparing each of positions in the period of 2005-2009. This allowed finding indicators for determining the requisite capital of enterprises. Practical implications. Substantiation of the financial restructuring of the capital of enterprises of AIC enables their further development in terms of European integration and will ensure the attractiveness of investing in the agricultural complex of Ukraine. Value/originality. The authors formed an approach to identifying a need for a capital of processing enterprises based on developed economic models and analytical support for the factor evaluation of production market trends that made provisions for prerequisites for adequate determination of the potential of processing enterprises of AIC.
Key words: processing enterprises of agro-industrial complex, factor evaluation of production market trends, financial restructuring of capital.
JEL Classification: Q12, O21, G32
1. Introduction
Capital formation process is one of the prerequisites of functioning and conducting production activity, creating attractive investment image, ensuring firmness of modern domestic enterprises and successful realization of possibilities of their development in the long run, which defines necessity of identifying indicators of activity that determine the formation and rational use of enterprise capital. Limiting possibilities of enterprises in relation to production, capital due to its mobility contributes to solving such economic tasks as: a combination of production and product demand; innovative development ofproduction activity; reducing and cheapening costs of production and services.
In 2017, Ukraine sold agricultural products in the amount of 17.9 billion USD (2016 - 15.5 billion). In a total volume of foreign trade in agricultural and food products, the share of export is 79.4%. The most exported are grain crops - 36.2%, vegetable oil - 25.1%, and oil seeds - 11.3%. Supplies of Ukrainian processed and food products considerably increased for the 2017 year. However, the export of crop production (mainly raw materials) increased by 2.1 billion USD and was 16.7 billion USD. More important for the economy export of animal products grew by 371.4 million USD and reached about 1.3 billion USD [/zn.ua/ECONOMICS/6]. Thus, the need for capital is growing and requires using developed and proven methodological approaches to its formation and use.
Corresponding author:
1 Department of Finance, Banking Business and Insurance, Pylyp Orlyk International Classical University. E-mail: klimsvitl2017@ukr.net
2 Department of Economics and Information Security, Pylyp Orlyk International Classical University. E-mail: ab011089kvf@gmail.com
2. The modern use of economic retro research
Processing chain of the agro-industrial sector has the most efficient ties with agricultural enterprises, which are based on the organizational-economic unity of production, storage, and processing of products.
Analytical support for the factor evaluation ofproduction market trends of processing enterprises ofAIC ofMykolaiv region characterised by developed processing industry is
based on research of the period from 2005 to 2009 when a situation regarding the provision of processing enterprises significantly improved but, much as today, the state of business in relation to animal products was ambiguous since the volume of sales of cattle and poultry increased but of milk and eggs - decreased.
Analysing production volumes of core products of processing enterprises of AIC of Mykolaiv region for
Table 1
Production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC of Mykolaiv region for 2005-2009, tons
Production 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fresh (fresh-killed) or chilled beef and veal 789 1001 659 421 391
Fresh (fresh-killed) or chilled pork 730 786 1030 774 945
Fresh or chilled meat and edible offal of poultry 86 58 31 13 6
Dried, salt or smoked pork 183 447 606 641 381
Salt, in brine, dried or smoked poultry meat 37 141 201 235 190
Sausage products 2620 3066 3142 3542 2607
Semi-finished meat products (including poultry meat) 65 146 641 6139 540
Smoked fish, including fillets 130 132 136 140 53
Dried or salt fish except for fish fillets 225 213 154 120 81
Fruit and vegetable juice, nectars 240648 289566 489781 463205 348625
Juice for children 61308 74408 5947 4013 4288
Natural canned vegetables 15861 19865 12637 19265 28678
Unrefined sunflower oil 29822 59748 59618 25421 69094
Processed fluid milk 15681 15053 15406 14856 9760
Cream with fat content more than 8% 22 99 152 150 63
Butter 3541 3658 3752 3931 2599
Fat blends and spread products 2623 1813 3280 3460 3156
Fresh unfermented cheese and sour milk cheese 16487 17616 18212 16784 15509
Fat cheeses 10038 8760 10410 12286 11644
Milk and cream condensed with sugar or without sugar or other sweetening matter 13735 9781 12150 10152 13381
Fermented milk products 24365 25812 27947 27794 20983
Flour 84257 81049 93681 83576 71332
Groats 6061 2704 1385 1181 1686
Prepared feed for cattle and poultry 49638 33479 31673 26388 30240
Bakery products 51948 47208 44755 42690 37801
Viennoiseries 1273 1103 1069 774 789
Pryaniki and related products, sweet cookies; waffles 2100 2330 2877 2227 1221
Noodles, not stuffed, not heat-treated or prepared in any other way 1140 886 610 599 515
Grape wine, ths. dal 2213 2581 3059 3493 2822,8
Natural non-carbonated mineral waters, ths. dal 11,4 43,3 95,2 71,7 96,4
Natural carbonated mineral waters, ths. dal 839,1 837,9 1333 1360,5 1337,1
Soft drinks, ths. dal 1763,4 1320,8 1851,3 2414,2 2994
Table 2
Indicators of primary production for processing enterprises ofAIC of Mykolaiv region for 2005-2009, thousand tons
Indicator 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Gross collection of grain and leguminous crops in all types of households (in weight after completion) 1763,4 1950,6 640,9 2385,9 2465,1
Gross collection of sugar beets (industrial) in all types of households 145,5 283,0 53,1 14,3 12,67
Gross collection of sunflower seeds in all types of households (in weight after completion) 426,8 499,2 259,7 517,3 553,1
Gross collection of vegetables in all types of households 266,7 297,2 151,6 274,4 334,2
Meat production in all types of households (live weight) 44,8 44,4 50,7 46,0 39,9
Milk production in all types of households 432,3 413,1 379,2 368,8 367,7
Egg production in all types of households, mln. pcs 313,7 327,0 336,7 386,3 473,9
2005-2009, decline of production of meat packing factories and fish canneries should be noted, which is caused by lack of raw materials in the sector, high credit interest rates for considerable raw material base recovery, low demand for products over the non-creditworthiness of the population and high price for products.
Indicators of primary production for processing enterprises of AIC of Mykolaiv region for 2005-2009 are presented in Table 2.
During 2005-2009, volumes of a gross collection of grain crops by all categories of farms of Mykolaiv region are increasing that is also peculiar to the present time, however, reduction of cattle and cow population in all types of households is also observed.
3. A methodological approach to determining indicators of the enterprise capital formation
In order to find results of the analysis of supply of processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region, a trend analysis is conducted, which purpose is to compare volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises and production of core products by processing enterprises, determine the main trend of dynamics of selected indicators by means of comparing each of positions in the period of 2005-2009.
Table 3
Data on dynamics of volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region for 2005-2009
Year Volume of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region, million UAH
2005 2,24
2006 2,44
2007 1,45
2008 3,26
2009 2,65
During the analysed period, there is observed a tendency for increasing volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region. The exception is a decrease in the indicator in 2007; the value was 1.45 million UAH, which is determined, on the one hand, by general decline in production under the economic crisis, on the other, by low level of capital concentration, which makes it impossible to increase the volume of purchases of raw materials from manufacturing enterprises. Similar problems are also taking place in processing enterprises of AIC today. Thus, directions obtained that point at a need for enterprises' capital expansion can be used in modern practice.
Adjustment of time series is carried out by a right line described by a trend equation as a function:
Y, = a o + ait (1)
where a0, a1 - parameters of trend equation; t -sequence number of time periods.
Table 4
Data on dynamics of production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC in Mykolaiv region for 2005-2009
Year Production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC in Mykolaiv region, million UAH
2005 2,16
2006 2,67
2007 3,51
2008 4,35
2009 4,37
We determine trend equation parameters a0 and a1 from the system of equations:
aon + a Z = Z y<
i=1 i=1
n n n
a Z {i + a Z= Z yfi
(2)
Estimated data for analytical adjustment of time series of production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC in Mykolaiv region, we determined by the linear trend (Table 5).
Table 5
Estimated data for analytical adjustment of time series of volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region
Year Volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region, y Conditional sign of time, t t2 y y = ao + att
2005 2,24 1 1 2,24 3,09
2006 2,44 2 4 4,88 6,18
2007 1,45 3 9 4,35 9,27
2008 3,26 4 16 13,04 12,36
2009 2,65 5 25 13,25 15,45
S 12,04 15 55 37,76 46,35
We obtain the following trend equation parameters for volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region:
X *
S yt
■ i=1
' S
46,3
= 9,27
37,76 55
= 0,69
(3)
(4)
For the indicator of volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region, trend equation is the following: y = 9,27 + 0,69t
According to the computational table, the sum of time series is equal to the sum of time series calculated on the
a
a
basis of analytical adjustment, which indicates that the smoothing of a time series is performed correctly.
Table 6
Estimated data for analytical adjustment of time series of production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC in Mykolaiv region
Production of
Year core products by processing enterprises of AIC in Mykolaiv region, y Conditional sign of time, t t2 / y = ao + a^t
2005 2,16 1 1 2,2 4,45
2006 2,67 2 4 5,3 8,90
2007 3,51 3 9 10,5 13,35
2008 4,35 4 16 17,4 17,80
2009 4,37 5 25 21,9 22,25
2 17,06 15 55 57,3 66,75
According to formula 3 and 4, we obtain the following parameters of trend equation for the indicator of production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC in Mykolaiv region:
17,06
a0 =
a i =
5
57,3 55
= 3,41
= 1,04
The trend equation for the production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC in Mykolaiv region is as follows: y = 3,41 + 1,04/
We present obtained results in graphic form in Fig. 1. According to findings, the forecast of volumes of
, Volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises
Production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC of Mykolaiv region
Fig. 1. Results of trend analysis of volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises and production of core products by processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region for 2005-2009
agricultural products sold to processing enterprises and production of core products by processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region for 2010-2019 is made, which will allow grounding on the dynamics of dependence between these indicators.
According to the obtained trend equation for the volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises, the forecast value of the indicator in 20102019 wm be y20w=9i27+0)69x6=18m
y y y
2011=9,27+0,69X7=21,63; 2012=9,27+0,69X8=24,72; ^ 2013=9,27+0,69X9=27,81;
y y y
2014=9,27+0,69X10=30,9; 2015=9,27+0,69X11=33,99; 2016=9,27+0,69X12=38,07;
y y y
2017=9,27+0,69X13=40,14; 2018=9,27+0,69X14=43,26; 2019=9,27+0,69X15=46,35
For the production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC -
y y y
-1 2010=3,41 + 1,04X6=26,7; 2011=3,41 + 1,04X7=31,15; 2012=3,41 + 1,04X8=35,6;
y y y
-1 2013=3,41 + 1,04X9=40,05; 2014=3,41+1,04X10=44,5; 2015=3,41+1,04X11=48,95;
y y y
-1 2016=3,41 + 1,04X12=53,4; 2017=3,41 + 1,04X13=57,85; 2018=3,41+1,04X14=62,3;
y.
2019=3,41+1,04x15=66,75.
y = 9,27 + 0,69i ^^-■66,75
^^■^48,9 5 ___—♦46,35
^5
■**?6/7 "^74/72 -rT\51 y = 3,41 + 1,04i
54
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201b 2017 2018 2019
—Volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises
Production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC of Mykolaiv region
Fig. 2. Forecasted data on volumes of agricultural products sold to processing enterprises and production of core products by processing enterprises of Mykolaiv region for 2010-2019
4. Conclusions
The obtained forecast data allowed asserting about the possibility of growth of production of core products by processing enterprises of AIC of Mykolaiv region during 2010-2019, which took place for 2010-2017 and provides for the possibility of their growth for 2018-2019. The determined benchmarks justify the necessity of financial restructuring of the capital of processing enterprises of AIC of Mykolaiv region for the purpose of its stable growth.
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