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Iohan Galtung,
political analyst
THE TEN TRENDS CHANGING THE WORLD
We live in the epoch of great change, and after termination of the transitional period started after collapse of the Soviet Union the world will become quite different. The ominous auguries last out and one of them became the double terrorist attack in Norway in July (about it -later). It is impossible to predict its appearance, but the growing trends before our eyes make at least mark the contours of probable changes. It is possible to see ten main trends. Five of them are spread in the global space among the states and the regions, and the other five - in the social space among the groups of people. They are as follows: 1) the global trends: the twilight and fall of the USA empire, the twilight of the West, weakening of the states and strengthening of the regions, the rise of "the rest" and the growth of China; 2) the social trends: the consolidation of the nations, the consolidation of the civil society, the growth of activities of the youth, the rise of the role of women, the aggravation of the inequality and mutinies.
As a result, we become witnesses of the large-scale changes comparable with the passage of the Greek-Roman antique period to the Middle Ages and further to early Renaissance and the contemporary epoch (1789) in the West. These changes occurred under conditions of globalization of Christianity, while the contemporary reforms are carried out under conditions of globalization of capitalism and global warming.
Five global trends may be perceived as the confirmation of the theory of communicating vessels: when one vessel becomes empty, the other - fills. The West "becomes shallow" - "the rest" rise, the USA weakens - China strengthens. All these trends are connected with each other, but at the same time they are displayed not less clearly and
evidently also as five independent phenomena, when one of them develops according to its own social logic.
The fall of the American empire had its own causes and consequences comparable with the known history of the fall of other empires. The twilight of the West in total is connected with this phenomenon but has its own motivation when the USA for other, primarily the social-economic, reasons comes forward in the part of the West, which can not afford sustainable development, paradoxically as a underdeveloped country, where American dream transforms into American nightmare.
The twilight and final fall of the empire - are different processes connected with inevitable logic of development of empires as organisms from their birth, growth and achievement of ripeness to aging and death. Using the thoughtful organization and high payment of the local elites the center is able to achieve the situation of distant regions' great economic dependence, to create the atmosphere of their fear of a probable use of force, to create their intention to identify themselves with the center and to ensure their submission. But it is possible only up to certain time: the empire falls as a victim to its own success overestimating its capacity and / or underestimating the capacity of the power, which is its counterbalance. The period of expansion terminates and is followed by a long period of status-quo when the extreme injustice conserves in all four aspects of force.
The empire is the arch-type of an unjust force, since it strives for dependence and pretended obedience disseminating fear and installing collaboration elites. Sometimes the periphery merges with the center. If the question is the relations with neighboring geographic regions, this process often is named as "construction of nation". Just this process was going on in Spain, France, Great Britain, Germany, Russia and China.
The experience presented by the British, French and other West-European and Soviet empires should convince the United States to start production of goods and not to live at the expense of unequal trade and putting on sale "the world currency". It is necessary to concentrate on the internal defense, having liquidated numerous military bases and having terminated wars all over the world, to start dialogue with other cultures and negotiation on political compromises and forget about the urge towards dictation of its will to all.
In spite of the growing number of the lost wars and attractiveness of other cultures (Islamic countries, Japan, China) and of the growing insubordination, the economic exploitation may not weaken for some time, since it is built on the basis of the unequal international trade structures, where the resources and the labor cost extremely little. Certainly, there will exist a known share of distributive justice in the form of assistance for development called upon to cover the transfers in the opposite direction extracted by exploitation, flee of capital and corruption. And what is more, the economic means of financial incentives cover a much more significant sociological effect of western assistance in development. The scholarships are given to the perspective young people, who later are summoned to enter the rows of the post-colonial elite. Other transfers are also summoned to place this group into an advantageous position. Kwame Nkrumah (the founder of contemporary Ghana and a prominent representative of the African anti-colonial movement) exactly defined the similar policy as neocolonialism.
The unstable balance was accessible up to the time, when the West enjoyed monopoly for manufacturing industries. Japan became the first non-European country, which challenged this situation. It was followed by four small "dragoons" and further by four big countries of BRIC. The former balance was broken, and it was one of the factors
of twilight of the West. These first signs soon will be followed by "the rest", which also will start production unless export but at least for ensuring wellbeing of their elites.
The supply rising all over the world might correspond to this fast growing demand, if there was no aggravation of inequality in the West, when 30-50-70%, representing the population of "the bottom" lacks purchasing power to buy goods with high share of added value. One should supplement this existence - due to inequality - with such anomaly as the cash flow to the upper classes, which gives them no other choice except speculation. They possess many new financial instruments like derivatives for the fast purchase-sale, a kind of game of chance. As a result of it: the boom of financial economy + the frozen real sector = the collapse. The more so, as it was promoted by economists, who are unable or unwilling to predict or to foresee such outcome. If "the rest" and China, like India, are trapped, their consolidation will come to end as it happened with Japan.
The formula of the West recovery is as simple as unfeasible: not to fulfill with liquidity the banks unable to survive, to regulate rigidly the financial sector and further to stimulate people starting with the strata of the population in need. It is necessary to promote small companies, agricultural cooperatives, polyclinics with medicines-generics for treatment of common people, schools for education of all sex and age groups of people. But the ruling classes of the West are ready to protect rather bankers than common people. The Chinese formula "capitalism - communism", raising people from "bottom", alleviating their hardships and involving them in real economy, might perform a miracle in the West. However, the stumbling-block would become the evident class distinctions, which exist not only in the USA. Hence, the last social trend - the aggravation of inequality and mutinies.
If the main key to development and progress is the rise of purchasing power of the population surviving "at the bottom" of society, more and more countries, including India, will imitate China. This result will have an influence on the self-respect and the sense of self-dignity of citizens of the West and will cause a growth of psychic illnesses. The repetition of suicides epidemic, which marked the twilight of Habsburg Empire, is not excluded.
The main reason of inevitability of the trend to the twilight of the state and consolidation of regions is simple to a great surprise. Marx wrote about the means of production but not on the means of communication and transport. Thanks to SMS and rapid movement all processes in the world go on in the regime of real time, and the sizes of the most countries reduce considerably. Only the mightiest will survive - BRIC, the USA and some others; the other countries will be involved in the orbit of regions, which differ in geographic closeness and cultural relative ties. As a result we will get as follows:
- the secular-Christian European Union,
- the mixed African Union,
- the Hindu-Muslim Association of regional cooperation of countries of the South Asia (SAARC),
- the mixed Association of states of the South-East Asia (ASEAN),
- the secular-Catholic Latin America,
- the Muslim Organization Islamic Conference (OIC), extending
in the
- space from Morocco to Philippines,
- the Buddhist-Confucian Eastern Asia,
- the secular-Orthodox Russian Federation, where Chechnya has the same autonomy as the Netherlands in the European Union.
The United Nations Organization (UN) will most likely be replaced by the Organization of United Regions (OUR).
The state is the territory, which is kept under control of the power concentrated in the same organization - "state". The nation is a cultural group characterized by four signs: the common language, the religion-ideology, the time - common perceptions on history, the past, the present and the future - and the space, i.e. the common territory and geography. In the world there are two thousand nations and about 200 states, but only 20 of them are the national states with one prevailing nation. Only in four of 180 multinational states there is no prevailing nation (in Europe - Switzerland, where several nations coexist equally, as well as Belgium disrupted by problems of international relations, while in Asia - linguistically Federal India and Malaysia). As far as other countries are concerned, the truest prognosis is the struggle marked by force. The nations being in shadow will struggle for a place in the sun - either for full independence, for autonomy within the framework of the federation or for other types of sovereignty.
The process of the national consolidation is deeply rooted in history, and the definition of the nation as "the citizens of one state" founded in the past in France does not convince may people. The line of division where is readiness to kill and to be killed coincides rarely with the state borders - it goes on between the nations, religions, languages and territories. The type of war changes, but the formula "from inter-state conflicts to internal state disputes" is too superficial and does not endure critic. The nations sometimes occupy territories of various countries, while many countries represent a common home for many nations. This fact results in establishment of numerous different confederations. However, the regions may play the role of certain
adapted "umbrellas" as soon as the flow of people crossing state borders makes them come nearer.
The states are eroded by mighty forces from above, such as regionalism and globalizing capitalist transnational corporations and banks. And below one can see nationalism and non-state and non-capitalist civil society, which inspires people for solidarity and creates new self-independence and identity: enlarged families, clans, tribes, trade unions, cities and villages, religious groups and insurgents. The states shrink, but they will still exist for some time.
At present, except ordinary states there exist many territories, and our maps colored in four main colors and used for designation of various countries turn out to be not a good guide for contemporary world. Nevertheless, the USA is hypnotized by this guide and irrationally adheres to the reality, which disappears before our eyes.
Many new phenomena appear. Probably, the proletariat in Marxist understanding lost its vigor after emergence of the social democracy and the collapse of socialism of the Soviet and Eastern European types. But in society there exist other lines of brake except opposition between the buyers and sellers of labor force: age, gender, race and nationality in its wide cultural aspect, including language and religion. Speaking about age, one should remember four main categories: childhood, adolescence in need of education, adults' period, when they need work, the time of pension. The revolt of the youth and students started in Latin America in 1963. In 1968 it started in Europe and further in the USA and Japan. Later this movement spread to the countries of the Near East and North Africa as well as to Spain as Movement M 15 (the movement of social protest against the measures taken for overcoming economic crisis). This movement will be supported everywhere in the countries, where unemployment exist,
where higher education is not ensured by employment, where autocracy and kleptocracy exist (certainly, including corruption).
Since the aging (consequently, less productive population) is regarded as a problem and not as a source of experience and even wisdom, we will see augmentation of mutinies not only of the youth but also of pensioners. Some people will demand to give them back the pension funds, lost as a result of speculations, the others will insist on their right for social useful working activities and will not subordinate to the dictatorship of middle aged people, who say to elders "go away!"
The countries to some extent resemble the people; they also go through the process analogous to the development of the mankind. The 1960s gave birth to a number of countries-children looking for their own identity. They are encircled by the countries-adolescents with negative self-definition, which protest and question status-quo. There exist also the adults-countries realizing a lot of projects, for instance -BRIC. And, finally, there are countries-pensioners, and their main task is - to keep status-quo and to survive. China is a former country-pensioner, which at present goes on the way from childhood to adolescence and adult state.
It is necessary to make the addition of the revolt of women - the revolutionary and epochal trend - the American revolution of the 1970s-1980s with the consequent reaction to it. The women posses a vast potential in the field of culture and education, easily excelling lazy men thanks to their diligence and endeavor. The mutiny spreads to all countries delivering the strike to the patriarchal family (only one fifth of all American households represent the married pares with children), and today women claim for occupation of the half of all posts.
This process is accompanied by the last trend - aggravation of inequality and mutinies. Injustice leads to inequality, and inequality
raises mutinies. The other question is - whether these mutinies grow into revolutions turning society up down? The colossal inequality, like in the USA, when 1% of the population keeps under its control 40% of the wealth, radically reduces a relative mobility of generations and has its impact on the situation both in the country and among them. Some years ago the rise of the gross world product (WGP) made about 2.8% and inequality, while the correlation of purchasing power between the richest and the poorest 20% of the population reached 3.2%. The growth of WGP did not alleviate the position of the fifth part of the poorest population. And at present, "the bottom" of this "bottom" departs at a speed of 125 thousand people per day: 25 thousand people pass away due to hunger and 100 thousand people die because of illnesses, which are subject to successful medical treatment in case of preventive measures and possession of money. Billions of people are sure that we live in the malicious and unjust world.
Does the analogous abyss exist in military, cultural and political spheres? In terms of inequality of force do we not see the sole superpower proclaimed to be the mightiest power, which exceeds by its might all others?
If it is true, why then the USA fail in one war after another? First it happened in Vietnam, further in Iraq and Afghanistan, while at present - in Somalia, Yemen and Libya - probably, because it is unable to cope with the forces, which balance its superiority, such as insurgents' actions, terrorism and non-forceful methods of struggle? It would be stupid to attack the world superpower, such the USA, or a regional imperialist power, such as Israel with its own mighty arms, particularly if you rely on tanks, like Saddam Hussein in 1991 in the course of operation "Storm in Desert", or the rockets of near distance, which were used by HAMAS against Israel. It is easier to fix the
balance of forces than the balance of wealth. The South Asia showed the way to the last aim, but it is easier to attain the balance of forces.
As far as cultural inequality is concerned, the gap between the light for the peoples and the black holes in the Universe, which at best consume light but do not radiate it, the former stars gradually extinct. The four countries of "Great Eight" (the USA, Great Britain, Italy and Japan) propagating their cultural Gospel all over the world stay in the situation of decay and involution. And what is more, these countries -"black holes" - may be marked by internal life, obtaining energy from rich cultural resources, including their knowledge of the West - for the good and for the detriment of itself. In reality, they might radiate light for some thousand years, but the trouble is that it was transferred by the wave's length indiscernible for the eyes of western common people. However, in the beginning of the former century the Japanese model of development was suddenly accessible to the West, although Japan itself did all to extinguish the super-new star as fast as it was formed. The Japanese model is being replaced by the Chinese model. China is a too big country to be defeated, and it is also able to capture minds of millions of people.
When we speak about political inequality, democracy comes forward and makes the people's majority confront the elite's minority, if the latter does not succeed to change the rules of game, for instance, the principle "one man/one vote" by the principle "one thousand dollars/one vote". The USA, Great Britain and other NATO countries collect their last strength to keep power in United Nations Organization, resisting the urgent democratic intentions of UN, such as Unification for Peace or hindering recognition of Palestine. In other words, United Nations Organization has only one choice: democracy or death.
Under conditions of sabotage tactics against democracy the people or the country find the way out of it by means of new axis of
reciprocal action, such as cooperation South-South, cooperation in the humanitarian direction etc. They will reduce economic dependence, create their own alliances, such as Shanghai Organization of Cooperation, will inspire each other accepting the best ideas of the West and will take their own decisions. In other words, they will rely on their own forces and capacities and will refuse to cooperate with antidemocratic elements or countries, which in great number are themselves at the stage of "pension infirmity and survival". They go the way of Gandi striving for self-dependence, look for their own originality and without fear make experiments and are in raptures of "svaraj" or self-government.
What consequences should be expected in the nearest years? We do not prefer either global or social trends - they supplement and strengthen each other. For instance, the "Arabic spring" in the Near East and the North Africa represent an evident mutiny against crying political and economic inequality, inspired mainly by the youth and women, who in this way declared about their consolidation into the leading social forces. However, the mutiny is directed also against the imperial pair the USA/Israel, which imagines itself to be chosen by God, and they see their mission in creation of local elites all over the world and to rule their Empires by means of corrupted dictators. The "Arabic spring" weakens these elites and Empires, which for a long time were eroded by various processes, which forced them to use disproportional force causing, in its turn, mutinies in response.
The American and the Israeli Empires, probably, will fall down by 2020, but the USA and Israel will come through, if they pursue a wise policy and agree to a compromise. Within the borders of 1967 Israel might be admitted to the community of the nations in the Near East together with five Arabic neighbors, like Germany within the framework of the Rome agreement, starting from 1957. The USA,
having stopped wars and interventions, having closed military bases outside its territory and having repudiated policy of dictate, might become a full member of the North-American community jointly with Canada and Mexico. The present American presidents will draw on their country much greater dishonor and disgrace, if they use force and behave unwisely and to the very uttermost stick to the dying Empires. It concerns also the successors of the present leaders of Israel and the USA (A. Liberman and S. Pailin?). But the successors of the successors, probably, will start to carry out a more realistic policy
Having repudiated the hopeless and fruitless foreign policy, the West actually might start the social-economic restoration. However, as a matter of fact, consolidation of China and of "the rest" may go too far, and the restored western countries would hardly be able at that time to reckon on the space, to which they were accustomed.
The vast territory of the Russian Federation will be marked by a flourishing, which might be promoted by "Russian spring" resembling Arabic one. The youth and women will play the leading role and maybe will invent a better Communism in 2017...
The probable events are not excluded also for China, but much has been already done within the Communist party of China. The dynamics of the country seems to be sustainable both in terms of growth (annual growth in 26% for the last 30 years in the economic zones, where Dan started his epochal reforms in 1980), having engendered the colossal inequality in the level of wealth, of power and the access to natural resources, and in terms of "openness". About 30 million Chinese annually leave the country and go back to the Motherland, where individual freedom becomes more and more real.
There are much more problems in India, where half of the population lies in the distant regions with strong caste prejudices, which represent themselves a heavy burden for life in the whole peninsula.
Naksalits, probably are only the heralds of such forms of struggle, as guerilla war, terrorism and non-forceful forms of resistance. Maybe China with its national problems will master Indian linguistic federalism, while India with its caste-class problems will be able to imitate the Chinese kind of "capitalism-communism". Is it possible that these two countries with the largest rate of population density in the world will render assistance to each other to achieve freedom?
Africa with the population over one billion will, probably, be shaken by mighty mutinies against the elites educated in the West. Libya is located on the shore of a freshwater "sea" (the so called Great artificial river - the biggest in the world pipeline system of 4 thousand km, which pumps fresh water from reservoirs under Sahara at 600800 m below in depth), which would be able to irrigate the largest part of Sahara. The territory located to the south of Sahara possesses the sufficient resources, including fertile soil, to feed itself under condition, if women are responsible for distribution of wealth. Latin America experiments with economy oriented to fundamental needs, for instance, exports meat and imports energy carriers, exchanging them for services in health care.
The mutinies will take place also in the West. Movement M15 in Spain attracts a great interest. The point is that its leaders should not demand that the ruling classes, keeping status quo, should start reforms, since it would be a great mistake. They might form companies "from below", i.e. to develop small business, mentioned above. The cooperative saving banks might make investments in real economy, instead of arrangement of speculation in the financial sector, with due account of high level of education and health care, as well as a great number of pensioners, who could make their contribution of experience and wisdom in the course of coming revolt of elderly people and pensioners (by 2015?)
* * *
There are events, which are connected by many threads. The catastrophe in Norway on 22 July 2011 may be regarded as an act of maniac Breivik. It would be the simplest way. But it would be a seduced outcome and a very limited interpretation, and one should not agree to it.
Let us see it in the wider vision. On the one side, there is an individual Islamophob, who was connected with some groups, which represent European neo-fascism. Would it be able to call him a madman, the political color would disappear. He would have become causa sui, i.e. the reason of himself. In this case Norway should learn America's experience after 11 September: How to pronounce speeches about "absolute and unmotivated evil". On the other side, there is group Ansar al-Jihad al-Alami, which allegedly assumed responsibility for the terrorist acts in Norway, which might become for bankrupted Washington a good pretext to demand new investments for "the struggle against terror". And in the middle is Breivik, the phenomenon of its time, for whom the situation in Libya was at some moment a cover, while he himself turned out to be almost the weapon of revenge. Is it the cooperation by agreed silence?
Breivik intentionally killed social democratic participants of the youth camp, saying he was eradicating Marxism and left ideas. But why did he select just these victims, since the Labor Party of Norway has no more relations to the left ideas and Marxism than the Party of progress, whose member was the killer, had relation to the right ideas. Both parties voted for bombardment of Libya and both supported purchase for extremely high prices American planes F35. Ideology has nothing to do in this case.
The prime minister was right, having said: nothing will turn Norway out from democracy. But democracy is not simply a
conglomerate of individuals closed each in his ideological cell. Democracy is a dialogue, a challenge, a confrontation with other people, but not the calculation of voters once in four years at the elections. Breivik should have had contacts with a great number of people, and we all would benefit it. The parliament and the citizens should publicly discuss any problems.
"Rossiya v globalnoy politike", M., 2011, vol. 9, N 4, July-August, p. 8-18.
R. Bekkin, scholar of the Orient THE INSTITUTION OF WAQF IN MODERN RUSSIA
Waqf is property relinquished by the state or by an individual for religious or charitable purposes in accordance with Muslim law. After relinquishing certain property to waqf (or after announcing it) this property ceases to be the property of the founder of waqf, but at the same time it does not become the property of the person receiving waqf and managing it in the interests of waqf beneficiaries. The property transferred to waqf should only be used for a definite purpose stated by the waqf founder.
However, Muslims and Muslim spiritual leaders in Russia do not always clearly understand the real purpose of waqf and tend to forget that waqf property is not turned into the property of religious organizations and that they can only use the income from it.
In the Volga region waqf is sometimes confused with other Islamic institutions: tithe, as well as incomes received from holding such religious rites as prayer meetings for the deceased, funeral ceremonies, etc. Sometimes waqf is regarded as a fund for financing
