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THE STATE AND PROSPECTS OF EURASIAN INTEGRATION IN THE CONTEXT OF DISINTEGRATIONAL TRENDS
R. Zhanbulatova1, M. Zhiyenbayev2 :L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University 2Karaganda State Technical University Zhanbulatova_rs@mail.ru
This article reveals the formation of EAEC as a key form of integration in the Eurasian space. Analysis of the strategic documents of the Union allows us to identify the key areas of integration and the trends of Eurasian integration. The prospects of Eurasian integration in the context of changing the current model of the world distribution ofpower are considered. At the same time, the authors singled out factors that slow the integration process in the Eurasian space.
Keywords: Eurasia, Eurasian Economic Union, Republic of Kazakhstan, Eurasian integration processes.
At the present stage, the countries of the Eurasian region are in search of their identity, trying to determine their place in the global world architecture. President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, speaking at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2016, stressed that "the global economy suffers not from an excess of integration, but, on the contrary, from its lack" [1]. The search for acceptable forms of integration throughout the post-Soviet Eurasian space led to the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union. However, the integration processes in the region are currently not experiencing the best of times, which actualizes the task of assessing the prospects for Eurasian integration. On December 19, 2009 the founding members of the Eurasian Customs Union, Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan and Republic of Belarus, agreed to create the unified economic space from January 2010. On November 18, 2011, during the meeting of the presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in Moscow, a declaration on the Eurasian economic integration was signed, in which as one of the main promising goals of Eurasian economic integration, the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEC) was proclaimed. The process was concluded by signing the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union on May 29, 2014 in Astana by the heads of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia [2]. In 2015, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Armenia joined the Union. The appearance in early 2015 of new integration structure in the Eurasian space has undoubtedly changed the
alignment of forces in the world system of international relations and predetermined its transformation in the short and medium term.
The formation of the EAEC is determined by a number of objective reasons, including the worldwide trend towards strengthening the integration trend, the search for new ways of interaction between countries in the context of globalization, and also by the cooling of Russia's relations with the countries of the West. By 2015, the member countries of the Union have come up with different levels of economic development, different economic structures, national development priorities, labor market specific trends for each country. However, the common goal of the member countries of the Union was to ensure the conditions for the development of their national economies and increase their competitiveness in the world and regional economic system. It is expected that the participation of member countries in the integration processes is carried out, among other things, to liberalize the access of their products to world markets, as well as to improve the business climate for attracting investments [3].
At present, the single commodity market is the most successful measure of integration within the framework of the EAEC, the regulation of which is generally implemented on a supra-national basis. It is important to point out that a unified commodity market is provided by the functioning of the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) of the EAEC member countries. The internal market of the EAEC is understood as a unified economic space with free movement of goods, labour, services and capitals. Thus, the import and export customs and other types of duties, taxes and fees, non-tariff regulation measures, special protective, anti-dumping and countervailing measures are not applied in mutual trade [4].
Among the factors of the success of integration in this area can be noted both the existence of a well-developed legal and practical framework since the functioning of the EurAsEC Customs Union and the experience of integration associations abroad (first of all - the experience of the European Union and the creation of a single EU market). In January 2018, the Customs Code (EAEC CC) of the EAEC came into force, which replaced the Customs Code of the Customs Union (CU CC) [5]. The main innovations of the EAEC CC include the inclusion of 16 out of 21 international agreements of the member countries, the incorporation of international conventions and obligations of the member countries of the Union within the WTO, the current level of information technology development (the priority of electronic declaration), the possibility of filing a customs declaration without confirming documents, etc.
Currently, within the framework of the EAEC, there are agreements on the creation of a unified market for pharmaceuticals and medicines. In 2019, in order to ensure energy security, it is planned to create a unified electricity market. Unified oil, gas and oil products markets in the format of the EAEC should be created in 2024-2025. A program and regulatory framework is being prepared for the transition to a common macroeconomic, monetary, financial, and antimonopoly policy. The program for the formation of a unified financial market should be completed in 2020-2023.
It is important to note that the Russian side has repeatedly advocated the formation of a monetary union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This proposal was not supported by the partners in the Union. Kazakhstan was especially active against it. In the opinion of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), the question of the unified currency of the EAEC can not be raised before the formation of a unified financial market in 2025. A more important issue in EEC is the expansion of the use of national currencies in mutual trade [6]. Each member country, due to the specifics of economic development, determines its own scale of priorities and goals within the framework of Eurasian integration. As the general effects of integration expected in all member countries in the medium term we can highlight the increased competitiveness of national economies, increased investment attractiveness, the implementation of transit potential and the implementation of industrialization projects.
There are significant obstacles to the implementation of the planned goals and objectives. Some of the obstacles are related to the specifics of the internal development of member countries, the mismatch of their economic interests, the desire to protect the domestic market and domestic producers. Part of the difficulties on the way to integration is due to the processes of turbulence in the global economy and a complex foreign policy conjuncture.
There are a number of points that currently hamper the development of freedom of movement of goods. First of all, the continuing barriers, withdrawals and restrictions have a negative impact on the development of the Union's unified goods market [7]. Among them, for example, are sanitary barriers, quotas, export / import bans, measures that affect competition and others [8].
In our opinion, the disintegrating moments are mainly related to the macroeconomic indicators of the EAEC countries, which are characterized by a weak diversification of economies, a high share of raw materials in mutual trade, a great dependence on the world commodity prices (for example, oil price cuts). The imbalance between the level and structure of the economies of the member countries also plays a negative role in the development of integration. In turn, the aggravation of relations between Russia and Western countries, caused by the Ukrainian crisis, is also a disintegrating factor.
It should be emphasized that the period of formation of the EAEC in 2015-2016. coincided with the period of global economic crisis. The overall decline in macroeconomic indicators affected the slowdown in the pace of integration, with negative aspects associated with the interdependence of the economies of the Union member countries. At the same time, the crisis phenomena forced attention to the development of non-primary sectors of the economy, to engage in import substitution and diversification of the national economy, which can be seen in the example of Kazakhstan and Russia. In general, the countries participating in the EAEC have not abandoned their ambitious plans to create a common energy, transport, and digital space.
In particular, at the meeting of the Interstate Council on December 26, 2016, the presidents of the EAEC countries approved the main directions and stages of the implementation of the common transport policy of the EAEC with the withdrawal by 2025 of a complete removal of restrictions on the movement of all modes of transport within the Union [9]. It is worth noting that cooperation in the field of transport and logistics in the EAEC is quite effective, which is due to the high degree of interdependence of countries in this area, especially in the field of rail transportation, the pipeline system. Thus, prospects of deepening integration in various spheres are considered.
In addition, the EAEC has prospects for expansion in several directions. At the regional level, Tajikistan is the most likely candidate for joining the EAEC in the near future. In addition, it is possible to expand in a global context. In particular, we are talking about the creation of a free trade zone of the EAEC countries with countries outside the post-Soviet space. For example, an agreement on a free trade zone was signed with Vietnam in 2015. To date, about 50 countries have expressed a desire to cooperate with the EAEC [10].
Due to the fact that the Western countries are in no hurry to establish a dialogue with the Eurasian Economic Union, focusing on worsened relations with Russia, the priority for the Union at the moment are relations with the countries of Asia. The idea of forming the "Great Eurasia", expressed by the Russian Federation, is consonant with the interests of the People's Republic of China. The idea of "Greater Eurasia" promoted by Moscow is based on the concept of a multipolar world, according to which the EAEC and the structures that are promoted by Beijing can become new poles in the world economy and politics of the century. China intends to cooperate with the countries of the EAEC in the framework of the Economic belt of the Silk Road.
In March 2017, the Eurasian Economic Commission reported that a list of priority projects had been drawn up that would be implemented by the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and would support the formation of EAEC. Most of them concern the construction of new and modernization of existing roads, the creation of transport and logistics centers, the development of key transport hubs. In particular, the high-speed railway "Moscow-Kazan" (speed of traveling up to 400 km per hour, traveling time 3.5 hours) should be built. At present, mechanisms are being worked out to attract Chinese investments in this project. In addition, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the development of the Armenia-Iran railway line, which allows Armenia to exit through Iran to Kazakhstan, China and beyond [11] are expected.
In the discourse of Russian experts, the economic concept of Eurasian integration comes to the forefront, according to which integration is primarily an open economy and a single market. The EAEC is considered as one of the possible mechanisms for overcoming the economic crisis, involving new resources and mechanisms for economic development. In the opinion of Russian experts, the neighboring countries are natural partners of Russia, and in conditions where the sales markets for Russian
products are not so great, it would be short-sighted to ignore the possibility of their expansion [12].
Kazakhstan is an active supporter of integration efforts in the Eurasian space, believing that such cooperation is objectively consistent with its national interests, and, as a whole, it follows logically from the need for countries to converge on the vast expanse of Eurasia. At the same time the EAEC is considered as a link between Europe and Asia. Proceeding from the above, it can be summarized that today the relevance of integration is due to the possibility for the countries of the Eurasian space to occupy a place in the world corresponding to their potential. In general, the role of the EAEC as an actor of the emerging global and regional architecture in the context of the ongoing transformation of the system of international relations can increase.
We believe that the development of the integration process must be consistent. In the Eurasian space, different-speed integration can take place when forming distinctive "integration centers". As for the EAEC guidelines, it seems that to achieve a qualitatively new level of interaction, its main objectives should be to increase efficiency, and, above all, to implement the planned economic projects. Among the ways to minimize these risks can be called more effective work of institutions of integration. Significantly, a clearer assessment of the correlation of potential opportunities and challenges for forecasting the results of Eurasian integration is presented.
References
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2. Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014 Art. 25.
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