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windows, are forbidden to invite guests in time of the cortege passing by, according to the special schedules.
It is evident that the regime expects significant threats in the external factors. Ashghabad maintains rather tense and different relations with Baku, Moscow, Tehran and Tashkent. All these events force the Turkmen leadership to look for support of the West, step by step making concessions in the negotiations on the conditions of selling Turkmen gas to Europe.
"Rossiya v globalnoy politike", M., 2011, vol. 9, N 2, March-April, p. 138-139.
L. Vasilyev,
political scientist (the IDV of the RAN) THE SPECIFICS OF CONTEMPORARY TERRORISM IN THE CENTRAL ASIA
The extremist and separatist movements in the Central Asia more often use terror as a main means of political struggle. It is promoted in the Central Asian states by a number of internal political reasons, which may be divided into two main groups and which create in society the social environment providing constant support to activities of terrorist organizations. They may be divided into social-economic and ideological reasons subject to a more detailed consideration.
As social-economic reasons may be mentioned as follows: the economic and social crisis, unemployment and impoverishment of a great part of the population; the sharpened feeling of social disorder and the lack of protection of the majority of the population; the fall of the power's authority due to inefficiency of economic reforms; the essential rise of social stratification of society; the de-industrialization of economy and connected with it unemployment and marginalization of a
great part of the population, which first of all had impact on the youth under conditions of high birth rate; the problems related to payment of pensions and subsidies, support to education and health care systems.
The ideological reasons may be regarded as follows: the estrangement of people from the state and society, elimination of their participation in governance of their own life; the loss by many people of ideological and spiritual orientations in life, the destruction of moral values, falsification of provisions of traditional Islam and rise of significance of its radical trends; the disintegration of the region into separate countries causing creation of border, visa and other barriers within the former united space, which promoted national isolation of peoples of these countries; the ethnic and religious conflicts, radical changes in the world outlook, caused by great social troubles; the contradictions between secularism of temporal regimes in the states of the Central Asia and the political Islam; the repressive actions of the governments against opposition activities of the political Islamic movements in the region.
The appraisal of activities of terrorist, extremist and separatist organizations in the Central Asia at the present time and under the shaped conditions in the region makes it possible to come to some general conclusions.
At present, the biggest terrorist organizations in the CA have similar strategic aims as well as worked out multi-variant tactic of their achievement. At the same time, the autonomy of their arms component, the strength of networks and sustainability of cells and the technical equipment are subject to constant rise and geographic extension of actions and circle of people taking decisions for their execution.
Under current conditions, the population of the Central Asian region, if not giving support to terrorism, at least justifies terrorism as a method of struggle for a dignified life. It is caused by disillusionment
with the existing situation and the lack of essential changes for the best, as well as by the unsuccessful search for justice.
The peculiar feature of contemporary terrorism in the CA region, like in the whole world, is its close connection between terrorist and criminal structures. Formerly they only in parallel settled mutually beneficial local issues and further went apart, but at present observers see a rising symbiosis of these two dangerous trends. Meanwhile, their joint activities multiply the capacity of each of them, since they make a terrorist cover its activities as an ordinary criminal, while the reciprocal services increase efficiency of actions of both of them.
Terrorism in the Central Asia, like the whole contemporary international terrorism, to a large extent is the way of life of the great strata of the population of a number of countries. It does not show concern about the final outcome, since new aims will follow the achieved ones. Therefore, overcoming the circumstances creating and promoting terrorism represents the long-term struggle to achieve this aim, and only the combined efforts exerted by the whole world community could ensure its achievement, while the forceful methods are not the decisive factor of success.
Discussing the trends in dynamics of the terrorist activities in the region of the Central Asia, it is possible to expect as follows:
- the intensification of activities of separatist and extremist groups and the spread of their activities to new territories; striving of extremist movements for consolidation with preservation of their governance autonomy;
- the further politicization of Islam and consolidation of its radical trends' influence on the population resulting in rise of their ideology to the detriment of traditional teaching;
- the emergence of new forms of extremist and terrorist actions; the appearance in the region of the movement of people committing suicide-shahids;
- the continued integration of extremism and terrorism with criminal structures, consolidation of their connections and reciprocal action against the background of rise of narcotics traffic; the rise of illegal arms traffic;
- the extension of women involvement in extremist and terrorist activities.
The described general characteristics and tendencies of development of contemporary terrorism in the Central Asia are marked by their specific displays under particular conditions of different Central Asian states.
Kazakhstan. At present, the specifics and means of terrorist activities in Kazakhstan are determined by several factors.
First, although Kazakhstan is also in the sphere of activities of international terrorist organizations, they regard this state not as a zone for active terrorist actions but as a kind of base of clandestine work for preparation of subversive acts in neighboring states, primarily in Uzbekistan.
Second, the rise of terrorist danger is marked there in spite of trustworthiness of the above said. It is connected with intensification of efforts exerted for involvement of Kazakhs in activities of international terrorist organizations. The recruiting is carried out mainly among unsettled and poor young people. It is based on their religiousness and consists in propaganda of radical trends of Islam.
Third, this phenomenon is regarded by secret services as a probable and even growing threat of terrorist acts against diplomatic and commercial offices of foreign countries on the territory of the
country, first of all those which represent the USA, Great Britain and Israel, like, for instance in Uzbekistan.
At present, radical Islamist organization "Khizb-ut-Takhrir" is the most active in Kazakhstan. However, up to present, this organization limits itself with propaganda of its ideas and with expression of opposition to the official policy of the state by using leaflets and literature of certain contents. The activities of this organization are concentrated mainly in southern regions of Kazakhstan, where the share of the indigenous population of the republic is particularly great and the level of dissemination of Islam is high. However, this organization has already taken root on the territory of Kyrgyzstan putting its activities at the inter-state level. Formerly, mainly poor people joined this organization, but recently its emissaries strive for recruiting to it state officials, including officers of law enforcement bodies, wealthy businessmen, intellectuals and students. They try to establish contacts with mass media and to penetrate actually into all spheres of society. In November 2004, some members of organization "Jamaat of mojaheds" were arrested, who were supported by Al-Qaeda. According to secret service of Kazakhstan, this organization is an underground terrorist group. For two years of its activities it recruited 70 members (50 Uzbeks and 20 Kazakhs). Some of them were involved in terrorist acts in July 2004 in Uzbekistan. The arrested group of terrorists comprised also 20 members of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, 14 representatives of Uigur separatist organizations and an emissary of the Kurdish Workers Party, who arrived to the country with a secret mission.
Kyrgyzstan. For the recent period, the state officials noted an evident rise of activities of supporters of "Khizb-ut-Takhrir". The main directions of their activities are as follows: the dissemination of religious literature with calls for change of the existing order, the
propaganda of their ideas within the strata of the population. The agitators paid special attention to state officials, including officials of law enforcement bodies, and servicemen. They made attempts to organize mass meetings with anti-constitutional direction and used anti-American slogans.
To raise the attractiveness of the Party's activities among the common people its leaders have worked out a special social program called upon to ensure their positive attitude to the party allegedly waging the struggle against corruption and illegal actions of local officials. As an example of implementation of this program may be regarded the demonstrations in support of the rights of consumers of electric energy, the assistance rendered to young families in new housing construction, the assistance given to residents of Kochkor district damaged by an earthquake, the arrangement of annual festivities "Kurban" and "Orozo Ait".
It is worth mentioning a number of specifics in activities of "Khizb-ut-Takhrir" on the territory of Kyrgyzstan under contemporary conditions: 1) its activities are carried out under conditions of systemic crisis and transformation of economic and public-political life of the republic; 2) the integration and trans-border characteristic of its activities, particularly in Fergana valley, makes it possible for internal and external forces to use for their own interests some members of the organization; 3) the versatility of tactic in the organization's activities and dynamic reflection to all-state events; 4) the subversive activities occupying great place in its functioning; 5) for the recent period, intensification of its activities among Gastarbeiters in the places of their communal settlements.
The activities of "Khizb-ut-Takhrir" are supported mainly by ethnic Uzbeks living in compact settlements in southern regions of the country. It is caused, in particular, not only by religious but also by
nationalist agitation of this organization. The adepts of other organizations, according to the Service of National Security of Kyrgyzstan, carry out their activities on the territory of the republic, including "Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan", "Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan" and in the south of the country - the preachers of radical trends of Islam from Saudi Arabia, Iran and other states. They agitate mainly for creation in the Central Asia of a united Islamic state in the Central Asia, enjoying great financial support. They propagate in two thousand mosques constructed in the south of the country for the last years by foreign sponsors. The events of the years 1999, 2000 and 2005 were the most dangerous for the state.
For the period of 1999 and 2000, the armed groups of IDU arranged assaults to Batken and Cho-Alay districts with the aim of creating in the south of Kyrgyzstan the springboard for terrorist and subversive acts in Uzbekistan. For this sake they explored the locations, worked put the routes, acquired and fabricated the needed documents, arranged talks with local residents to convince them that the members of the bands were protectors of Islam and irreconcilable enemies of only the ruling power in Uzbekistan. It should be said that a certain part of the population supported them. The assaults of Islamists to Kyrgyzstan did not intend to involve it into war against Uzbekistan, contrary to some remarks made otherwise. They aimed at destabilization of the situation in Uzbekistan. By terrorist acts and subversive assaults they tried to intensify protest actions of the Uzbek opposition and to provoke troubles and to cause, as was supposed, state repressions. By such means they intended to come to power in the state. However, this course of events with great probability would not have been limited with the borders of one country. For that period, the talibs, having seized power in Afghanistan, proclaimed the course of "talibanization" of the whole Central Asia, and just they were behind
the back of Uzbek extremists. Fortunately, they failed to implement such plans.
Tajikistan. As a result of the civil war for the period from 1992 to 1997, which caused 50 thousand victims and the economic damage in the account of $ 7 billion, the central power turned out to be weakened so much that it was unable to keep under efficient control either the borders or the territory of its own state. It allowed various radical organizations almost without obstruction to create their bases and camps in the country and in adjacent districts. Consequently, the tension was growing both in Tajikistan itself and in the neighboring republics. In 1997 the military actions stopped, and the united Tajik opposition signed the general agreement on peace and national consent, while some its representatives became members of the government. E. Rakhmon, the president of Tajikistan started to stabilize the situation and to consolidate his power, having achieved certain success in it. The defeat of talibs in neighboring Afghanistan promoted this process. However, for the last years "Khizb-ut-Takhrir" started to carry out its activities in Tajikistan on a larger scale. For instance, in February 2004 only in one (Sogdi) region the law enforcement bodies detained 22 members of this organization, including several officials of these bodies. A lot of publications and leaflets of extremist contents were confiscated from the detainees.
On 12 April 2004, the law enforcement bodies in Isfarin district of Tajikistan detained 20 persons suspected of committing heinous crimes based on racial and religious enmity. In particular, they were accused of assassination in the beginning of 2004 of S. Bessarab, the leader of the local Adventists, as well as of setting fire to some mosques, where their clergymen expressed loyalty to the government of the republic. In the course of detainment, the criminals offered armed resistance, and big depots of arms were discovered and confiscated in
their houses. The investigation and judicial proceedings established that these persons were members of new extremist organization "Bayat" (in Arabic - "oath"), including some of them being former supporters of talibs and participants of war in Afghanistan. According to indirect evidence, "Bayat" had connections with IDU. On 15 May 2009, the government of Tajikistan started operation "Mak-2009", which officially was aimed at extension of the struggle against opium cultivation and narcotics trade in Rasht valley at the distance of 150 km from Dushanbe. Meanwhile, according to some experts, the operation was actually caused by the return to the value of known field commander M. Abdullo, who participated in the civil war and further was hiding in Pakistan and who returned to Tajikistan with one hundred fighters. After conclusion in 1997 of the peace agreement M. Abdullo left for Afghanistan and later had to go to Pakistan following the beginning of the USA military operation.
Turkmenistan. Actually there were no changes in internal and external policy of Turkmenistan after death of president S. Niyazov in 2006. The republic in terms of stability as usual is the calmest state in the region. Some experts predicted "popular revolution", military junta coming to power and the inter-tribal clashes and chaos. Fortunately, it did not take place. New president G. Berdymukammedov made Turkmenistan a more open state for the external world, rehabilitated some people sentenced by the former regime, abrogated a number of unpopular decisions of the preceding president; however, he kept in force the provision, which considers as traitors to the Motherland those, who disseminates "doubts about rightness of the president's policy". Thus, the changes occurred in Turkmenistan do not concern substance of the republican political system and in the nearest future will hardly result in aggravation of the situation in the state. However, the violation of human rights occurring everywhere, corruption of the leadership and
complicated ethic structure of the country in future may create preconditions for negative development of events.
Uzbekistan. For recent time, Uzbekistan occupied the first place in terms of activities of terrorist organizations among other countries of the Central Asia. In March 2004, in Tashkent and in some other districts of the country as a result of arranged explosions and attacks against militiamen there were assassinated several dozens of people. Some time later, on 30 July of the same year, the terrorist committing suicide organized three explosions in Tashkent near embassies of the USA, Israel and the office of the General Attorney. Four members of the law enforcement bodies in charge of protection of these objects were killed and nine people were wounded. Two terrorist groups ("Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan" and "Islamic Jihad") assumed the responsibility for the explosions in Tashkent and Bukhara in March and July 2004 in response to support of war in Afghanistan by Uzbekistan. Many observers connected the explosions in July with the judicial prosecution of participants of terrorist attacks in Tashkent in March, though. In any case, the situation in the country was aggravating on the eve of Andijan events in 2005. Unlike events in Kyrgyzstan in 2005, the events in Andijan, to the mind of many analysts, represented a direct mutiny, which was prepared beforehand by internal and external forces. The capture of the military detachment's building and the attack against the prison, the fire set to some public and administrative buildings should be qualified to be a mutiny. Its suppression was a direct duty of the state, and the adequate fierce reaction of the power seems to be quite justified. Unlike Bishkek, Tashkent demonstrated the force and determination in readiness to protect the Constitution of the country by all means.
* * *
Analyzing the reasons of the spread of terrorism in the Central Asia one should mention the peculiarities of the present structure of power and of the system of governance in the Central Asian states connected with mentality of their civil societies. It is common secret that actually in all of the region's states the ruling central and local elite is formed on the clannish basis. In Kazakhstan the representatives of the north of the country occupy the central posts, and the elite of other regions have to unite in "democratic opposition". In Uzbekistan the elite of Tashkent and Samarkand pushed aside from power the people from Fergana valley. In Kyrgyzstan after removal from power of A. Akayev family the struggle between residents of the southern and northern regions of the country goes on, and the Uzbek Diaspora participates in it. In Tajikistan the united Islamic opposition confronts the ruling elite.
At the same time, in these states the membership in certain clan has a deciding influence on a chance to join some or other elite. The complicated hierarchy of relations and rigid discipline reigns within them, while the ties with other clans are subject to strict regulation. Under these conditions, the social, ethnic and confessional groups of the population infringed in their rights use the existing extremist trends to express their dissatisfaction and impatience. The ruling elites, in their turn, use the threat of extremism and terrorism to intensify the pressure and to consolidate their own position. All this prevents stabilization of the situation and creates a threat of its change to the worse. The destabilization of the political system even in one country will inevitably raise tension in the whole region related to the need to install a more rigid border regime, will hinder implementation of joint economic projects, will complicate the trade turnover regime etc.
At the national level, all this will lead to limitation of political freedoms, infringement of human rights and loss of personal security, cessation of dialogue between society and state. It will result in rise of corruption and criminalization of society, including narcotics business, trade of arms and of people, as well as such dangerous phenomena as extremism and terrorism, which is fraught with loss of national governance.
Summing up discussion of activities of terrorist organizations in the region and of the conditions promoting these activities, it is possible to make some general conclusions.
This activity is inherent in trans-border characteristic, since it covers the territory of actually all Central Asian states, and it is coordinated by international terrorist centers. For the sake of achievement of the above mentioned general aims this activity is being carried out in the following directions:
- the destabilization of the general situation by terrorist and other subversive acts as well as physical elimination of representatives of the highest leadership of the region's states;
- the use of the territory of these countries as a kind of basis for training the reserve of active fighters and execution of subversive actions in adjacent states;
- the ideological-propaganda work among the masses of the population inter alia for recruitment of potential executors of terrorist acts.
The statistics prove that in comparison with other regions of the world the activities of terrorists in the Central Asia are relatively not high. However, it should be taken into account that terrorist and extremist acts were marked there actually since the moment of proclamation of independence and take place at present. This period of time was characterized by the change of methods of waging struggle:
from unleashing civil war in Tajikistan, through armed attacks of fighters against Kyrgyzstan and the mutiny in Andijan to the extensive actually semi-legal agitation for creation of the World Islamic caliphate. At the same time, the specter of extremist and terrorist organizations continues to be recruited by new and more notorious organizations and groups of fighters.
In spite of the measures taken in this sphere by the authorities of the region's states, they may not be regarded to be adequately sufficient. The number of pre-requisites promoting emergence and facilitating existence of separatist, extremist and terrorist organizations in the Central Asia increases and therefore creates conditions for preservation of problems connected with their activities.
It should be stressed that the international terrorism in the Central Asia comes forward as an instrument, which will be used in future for the change of political order of the Central Asian states. The radical intensification of activities of extremist, separatist and terrorist organizations will most likely take place for the transitional period, when the ruling elite will be changed in the states of the Central Asia.
The world financial crisis may be a catalyst of the rise of extremist and separatist feelings and consequently cause the intensification of terrorist activities. At the same time, the radical reduction of labor market may have an impact on the flows of illegal migration, criminality and other unlawful actions, which may result in rapid destabilization of the situation in the Central Asian region.
"Mirovye derzhavy v Tsentralnoy Azii", M, 2011, p. 195-208.
