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biggest bank and of a service company for air travel. The political elites prefer to use their friends and family members to keep their position in the most valuable assets of the country. It takes place despite the legislation, which regards nepotism as a crime subject to punishment up to twelve years of imprisonment. Ilham Aliyev likes to possess everything in the family. His wife Mekhriban is a member of the parliament and a distinguished political personality.
Ilham Aliyev gets his official presidential annual salary in the size of $ 230 thousand. However, he keeps under his rigid control the oil resources of the country; formerly he occupied the post of the president of the state oil company of Azerbaijan. The property of Ilham Aliyev accounts for dozens of millions of US dollars. Neither he, nor his wife declared their own capital, which contradicts the laws of Azerbaijan. The national legislation forbids officials to have business. However, it does not apply to the members of Ilham Aliyev family.
"Semya", Mariupol, 2011, N34, p. 7.
Elena lonova,
candidate of historical sciences
(IMEMO of the RAS)
THE SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
After termination of the ten years period since the last political crisis in Kyrgyzstan it is possible to make some review of activities of the new leadership of the republic. By the end of 2011 the term of powers of president R. Otunbayeva expires, and she herself, as she said, intends to demonstrate a peaceful and legal transfer of powers by means of open and honest elections. Meantime, the lack of stability and unpredictability of events in Kyrgyzstan make an impact on the whole
way of political processes in the Central Asia, which conditions greater attention of experts to the situation in the republic so much, as in 2011 many observers predict the rise of political tension in the whole space of the CA.
In March 2011, the first Eurasian congress of political scientists , held in Astana, paid great attention to the situation in Kyrgyzstan. Many representatives of the expert community came to the conclusion that there existed all pre-conditions for a new revolution in the republic. In April 2010, the part of the elite oriented to a great extent to the West, primarily the USA, came to power.
The change of power was followed by an attempt to create in the republic of parliamentary democracy, and the corresponding amendments were made in the constitution. However, actually the change for the parliamentarian republic did not take place, according to Kyrgyz political scientist N. Omarov, and this experiment failed. At least for the next ten-twenty years such project in the CA region will not occur. The third revolution will evidently take place, and with due account of great dissolution of the population in democratic values, either representatives of the law enforcement bodies or religious extremists will come to power, Omarov asserts.
This point of view seems to be substantiated. The economic situation in the country is unstable, and the country lacks resources to restore economy, which is based on foreign financial assistance. Like Bakiyev, R. Otunbayeva came to power with the promise to get rid of the corruption. However, corruption as usual increases having only changed the names.
In January 2011, F. Kulov, the leader of the parliamentarian opposition presented to the public opinion a review on the situation in this sphere. The document, prepared by a group of experts of the party "Ar-Namys", headed by him, contains several dozens of typical
schemes of illegal cash and non-cash turn over, means of grafts and "payments" to officials taking decisions, the illegal actions in the course of tenders and purchases and many other ways of embezzlement. According to the document, by means of corruption schemes $ 300 millions have been withdrawn from the state budget (20% of it).
The re-division of property is going on in the republic for the benefit of the ruling elite, and the nationalized objects are sold to new owners. The nationalization of some foreign enterprises with participation of foreign capital decreased the already low rating of economy in Kyrgyzstan. A great corruption scandal was connected with the biggest operator "Alfa-Telekom" working under the brand of Russian company "Megakom".
The acute problem - the inter-ethnic relations is left unsolved, having changed the acute problem for the latent one. It is caused by the unsettled issue of relations between the "title nation" and Uzbeks, Omarov thinks. This point of view is shared by the chairman of OSCE minister of foreign relations of Lithuania A. Adzhubalis after his visit to Bishkek and Osh in March 2011. He said that he was concerned mainly about discrimination, persecution, forceful actions and rude violation of human rights in Kyrgyzstan. He pointed out that the authorities did not eliminate the basic reason consisted in aspiration of the title ethnos for domination in political and economic spheres of the republic, which causes the responded reaction of non-Kyrgyz population of the country, primarily of Uzbeks. The smoldering conflict made the situation in the country particularly explosive on the eve of presidential elections, since it could be used by various political forces, including extremists.
For the spring 2011, the tension in the south of the republic was growing, and the threat of resumed inter-ethnic clashes, like in Osh in 2010, was growing, R. Otunbayeva mentioned it herself. The dangerous
situation in the south of the republic was discussed at the meeting of commanders of border guard forces of the Central Asia and Russia, held in March 2011.
The corner-stone of policy carried out by Otunbayeva was her stake on external economic and political support. The leadership of the republic had constantly to maneuver between Moscow and Washington competing there. It concerns first of all the military sphere, particularly existence on the republic's territory of USA and RF military bases. The activities of the president of Kyrgyzstan were analyzed by A. Knyazev, a Russian expert of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the AS. To his mind, R. Otunbayeva became the head of the country in the period of troubles, and the question was not whether she could keep the situation under control but the question was that there was no aim at all. The aim of the USA was to put "its own person" at the head of Kyrgyzstan, and the USA achieved this aim.
The USA strives for keeping and enlarging its base in the airport "Manas" (Bakiyev renamed it as the center of transit deliveries, but it did not change its functioning) and for establishing there new points of its military presence. In July 2010, Otunbayeva as the leader of the provisional government by her decree without participation of the parliament extended the agreement on the lease of this base in the airport of Bishkek for one year, which provided the Kyrgyz budget with $ 60 millions. Most experts share the meaning that in spite of Moscow's discontent Americans will stay in "Manas" for a long time.
In March 2011, Otunbayeva, having come back from her trip to Europe and the USA, where she was awarded by the USA State Secretary H. Clinton to the international prize for woman's courage, made public the plan for creation of a new military American center in Batken region. At the request of Otunbayeva, a special training base for American forces should be installed there. At the same time, she
publicly said about the need of extended cooperation with NATO to strengthen security of the country. Being in Washington, Otunbayeva asked for the USA assistance in fortifying the state border to prevent invasion of terrorists. In the context of the initiatives of Otunbayeva in Washington, one should agree with the meaning of Knyazev, who considered that the awards of the USA State Department to her were a kind of honorarium for the services. At the same time, it is noteworthy that Bishkek officially in parallel conducted negotiations with Moscow on creation in the south of Kyrgyzstan of another ODKB base.
Bishkek intends in its relations with Moscow to get economic assistance, since Washington prefers to support its interests by political actions. At present, Turkey and China are significant donors of Kyrgyzstan. Ankara expressed its readiness to make investments of $ 450 millions in economy of Kyrgyzstan, including $ 150 millions for extension of activities of Kyrgyz-Turkish University "Manas". R. Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey during his visit to Bishkek in 2011 promised to render financial assistance in the amount of $ 24 millions, to abrogate by the end of the year the visa regime with Kyrgyzstan and to enlarge quota for Kyrgyz students getting education in Turkey, to continue to provide Kyrgyzstan with military equipment. Turkey expects in return to get the shares of military plant "Dastan" (formally promised to be given to Russia), which produces high speed torpedoes. The Turkish premier expressed his interest as well to company "Kyrgyzneftegaz". At the same time, Bishkek gets direct financial assistance and beneficial credits from Beijing.
Moscow, striving for keeping stability in the Central Asia, is ready to give economic support to Kyrgyzstan. In Bakiyev time, the RF wrote off the Kyrgyz debt in the amount of $ 180 millions but in return did not get the promised benefits. Further, a new stage of rapprochement was marked in Russian-Kyrgyz relations. A. Atam-
bayev, the prime-minister of Kyrgyzstan on 23 March 2011 at the forum on economic cooperation stressed in his speech that Kyrgyzstan would not be able to overcome its economic crisis without assistance of Russia. He admitted that Kyrgyzstan was to blame for inadequate development of bilateral cooperation. He said: "We should not put to the test forbearance of Russia. We should not deceive someone, it is necessary to see that it is the hand of the friend and of the brother. Up to the present time, they try somehow to push off and to split us."
The prime-minister of Kyrgyzstan, being a candidate for the presidential post, visited Moscow and had a meeting with V. Putin; Kyrgyzstan was promised to get a new credit of $ 30 millions (following repayment of the previous debt of $ 14 millions) as well as the credit of $ 106 millions from EvrAzES for payment before the presidential elections. At the same time, the parties agreed that Moscow would provide Kyrgyzstan in 2012 with the credit of $ 3 billions for construction of Kambartin hydroelectric station.
For ten years the idea of this GES construction as the most expensive joint project of Russia and Kyrgyzstan was discussed without results. It was caused by such factors as the long-term repayment and the high cost (the initial cost in $ 1.7 billion was raised twice), the negative attitude of Uzbekistan, which was afraid of negative consequences for its own hydro-energy. The joint development of hydro-energy resources under the agreement between Russia and Kyrgyzstan signed in February 2011 should provide further for construction of four other big stations in the upper flow of the river of Naryn.
The activities of "Gasprom" in Kyrgyzstan are subject to extension, given its free of custom deliveries of petrol. It made the population economize $ 400 million annually and represent a significant help for the period of agricultural works. However, in April
2010 "Gasprom" revealed the facts of re-sail by false firms of this petrol at higher price to American base "Manas" and introduced the export taxes. In February 201, the RF in response to the request of Kyrgyzstan at the meeting of the bilateral governmental commission agreed to abrogate the taxes, under condition of delivery of aviation kerosene to American base "Manas" directly by "Gasprom". For this sake the joint Russian-Kyrgyz company was established with 51% of shares belonged to the RF.
It was supposed to invite Russian companies to start the geological exploration of gas and oil deposits in Kyrgyzstan. Roskosmos planned to form an enterprise for production of silicon to make photo-elements. Bishkek counts on Moscow in benefits for export of goods from Kyrgyzstan and informed about its intension to enter the Custom Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The share of the three countries in the trade turnover of Kyrgyzstan makes 44.9% (Russia - 26.9%, Kazakhstan - 16.8%, Belarus - 1.2%). It was supposed that Kyrgyzstan would ratify the agreement on joining the Union by September 2011. According to experts, the agreed joining by Kyrgyzstan of the Union is conditioned by its geopolitical location.
The expertise of the prospects in Russian-Kyrgyz relations is as follows: Bishkek will comply with its obligations to give Russia 49% of shares of enterprise "Dastan", to settle disputed issues on the property rights of communication company "MegaKom", to sell 75% of "Kyrgyzgas" to "Gasprom". Kyrgyzstan will not fulfill is obligations in good time, the experts think. However, Moscow is not yet ready to introduce the visa regime for Kyrgyzstan, since payments of the Kyrgyz migrants working in Russia to their own country in 2010 made $ 1.250 billion, which is comparable with the budget of the republic.
There are some doubts concerning conclusion of the agreement on creation of ODKB military base. Officially Bishkek supports the
idea of creation of the second Russian military center (planning to raise the price for it from $ 4.5 million to 20 million for the objects protecting Russian interests in the republic). The local pro-American elite hinder extension of military presence of Russia in the republic and keeps significant positions in the system of state power.
The joint struggle against narcotic traffic from Afghanistan is one of directions for extension of cooperation between Russia and Kyrgyzstan; 30% of Afghan narcotics come to Russia through southern regions of Kyrgyzstan. The situation became much worse after liquidation by Bakiyev of the anti-narcotic republican service (later it became known that narcotic flows were controlled by former chiefs of law enforcement bodies). In March 2011, the protocol on technical and financial assistance of Russia to Kyrgyzstan was signed in order to create a special police for struggle against narcotics traffic. ODKB planned to establish in Kyrgyzstan a center for struggle against narcotics traffic.
As a whole, it is possible to say that Russia takes real steps to render assistance to Kyrgyzstan and to keep stability in the republic, which is threatened by a split in case of aggravation of internal political situation. The latter is fraught with dramatic consequences for the whole Central Asian region and for national interests of the RF, since, according to some experts, it is impossible to exclude completely Kosovo variant, i.e. the attempt to solve internal inter-ethnic conflicts with participation of military forces of the USA and other NATO countries.
"Rossiya i novye gosudarstva Evrazii", M, 2011, NII, p. 89-95.
