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"development of integration processes, first of all, within the framework of EAEC and SOC. However then, just OBSE and CAEC traditionally laid stress on bilateral cooperation where one named the main partners as Russia, China, CIS countries, USA, EU countries and also Japan, India, Turkey, Iran but not Kazakhstan's cooperation within the framework of Central Asian countries.
So, one should note that Kazakhstan is of special importance among the countries in Central Asia who tries to be the central-Asian leader and keep balance between the big players in the given region -Moscow, Peking, Washington and others however, more directed at carrying out its own multi-vector policy than at developing integral mutual relations of Central Asia with the other countries. Astana's interest in progressive development of the neighbors is based on understanding that successful long-term economic development is impossible without favorable regional surroundings. It's known that the situation of the surrounding region has an impact to business atmosphere estimation in every individual country. So, Kazakhstan is directly interested in that there would be the stability and wellbeing in Central Asia.
"Voprosy gumanitarnykh nauk", M., 2010, N1, p. 260-262.
S. Chernyavsky,
doctor of sciences (history)
THE RUSSIAN PRIORITIES IN CENTRAL ASIA
It would seem that headlong increasing globalization of the world economy helps, at last, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to find own way in life having removed their former "spatial isolation" and especially as because one can observe a concrete adaptation of Central Asia to the new rules and conditions of
coexistence in the international community. The participation of the region countries in the international division of labor gave them an opportunity to connect to telecommunication systems, develop their own technologies, get transnational corporations involved into developing their economies, make structural reorganizations of financial and bank systems, attract investments and improve the population literacy by advanced educational program adopting.
However, global financial-economic crisis amended poorly. It brought to that socio-economic situation in all the region countries is characterized with serious crisis phenomena though a character and their forms are different and depend on economic system development. The national budget in all the states of Central Asia is formed as a rule with a great deficit; price policy isn't coordinated with purchasing power of the population and marketability and one can observe a high ratio of inflation, crisis in banking sphere, stagnation increasing of industrial sector of economy and decline in growth rate of national gross product. The distinctions of the economical crisis in some countries are associated only with a specificity of industrial development of the national economic systems and a level of the market reorganizations.
Kazakhstan being characterized with the largest level of the market institution development, powerful industrial complex, advanced banking system and the great investment resources suffered more than the other countries of Central Asia from a financial crisis. Advanced banking system of the country integrated into the world market using actively the modern forms of mortgage crediting, investments in the securities market, development of stock market was financially shocked more than the other countries of Central Asia. As a result Kazakhstan has serious problems associated with insolvency of mortgage credit
borrowers, their mass bankruptcy, bank profitability decreasing and loss of capital value placed in the securities markets.
Uzbekistan, on the contrary, avoided many problems associated with the world financial crisis as its economy is less integrated into the world markets, is closed and based on a real sector with a poor banking system. Uzbekistan avoided a financial crisis owing to the national economy control and a poor coordination with speculative capital though it didn't save Uzbekistan from growth rate of inflation, lower growth rate of national gross product and solvent consumptive demand decreasing.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan suffer from a system crisis being characterized with a deep decline in all economic sectors. There are the highest rates of inflation in these countries: 26,6% and 29,8%, correspondingly and the lowers growth rate of the growth rate of the national gross product - in average about 6% (the worst results in CIS countries). By that one should note that the index growth of the national gross product is of a gross increase for the account of price rises and increasing of trade and commission economic sectors. The industry of these countries can't withstand competition with the foreign producers and the national market yields to import goods more and more decreasing its production. High inflation worsens the problem of decline in growth rate of the real economic sector of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. One of the main ways to come out of a recession for the countries of Central Asia is investment attracting, preferably the Russian ones as many western countries exhausted its investment possibilities investing in their own economy saving from the world financial crisis. The degree of integration of the Central Asian region with Russia is also higher so the Russian factor is more than obvious to overcome the crisis.
What is the present Russia's position with respect to Central Asia? What are its priorities? It concerns not only the abstract corner of the world but the considerable part of the former USSR territory of entirety containing about 4 millions square km having the population more than 50 millions of people (the Russian compatriots are 7 millions among them). Russia isn't indifferent to fortunes of nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by virtue of the historical development and long-term living together. But it lays its special claims to foreign-policy course of the Russian Federation In Central Asia and causes the necessity to make purposeful and constant adjustments. As for a strategy the foreign policy of Russia in the region is directed at achieving purposes stated in Conception of foreign policy approved by the president. It concerns such problem solving as:
- Non-admission of alternative security system forming in Central Asia without Russia's participation and counteraction to the attempts to consolidate the position of the third countries;
- Position expansion of the Russian capital in the key industries of the Central Asian countries, free transport corridors and communications providing including fuel-energetic;
- All-round human rights and interests protection of the Russian citizens and compatriots and position strengthening of the Russian language and culture of Russia's people;
- Consolidation of many-sided structures with Russia's participation and their key importance improving for stability and security at the southern boundaries.
Foreign-policy efforts of Russia in Central Asian region are concentrated on three main trends -bilateral cooperation, multilateral cooperation on security and economic integration. The Russian party adheres to the following priorities to develop bilateral cooperation.
The Republic of Kazakhstan is the main military-political and economic partner of Russia in Central Asia. A strategy of our mutual relations is defined by the geopolitical position of Kazakhstan, its large economic and resource potential, the unique cosmodrome "Baikanur" meaning for Russia and 4 millions of the Russian population. Bilateral contacts are notable for the active multi-aspect cooperation, solid contractual legal framework (more than 300 contracts and agreements are signed). The main documents - Treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance dated by 25 May 1992, Declaration of eternal friendship and cooperation oriented at XXI century dated by 6 July 1988.
Intensive political contacts are supported between two countries, first of all, at high level. In 2007 there were 8 personal meetings of the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan and in 2008 - there were also 8 meetings including the state visit of the President of the Russian Federation D.A. Medvedev in Astana 22-23 May 2008.Kazakhstan takes the third position in external economic links of Russia with the CIS countries after Byelorussia and Ukraine. Kazakhstan's share amounts to 15% in total turnover of the Russian Federation with the CIS countries. Russia's specific weight in goods exchange operations of Kazakhstan is 24,7%. Production of fuel-energetic complex and machinery-building is the leader in the structure of the Russian export in Kazakhstan. In 2008 a turnover between Russia and Kazakhstan in comparison with 2007 is increased by 19,3% and amounted to 19,7 milliards dollars. The Russian export was increased by 12,1% and amounted to 13,3 milliards dollars but import from Kazakhstan -by 37,8% (up to 6,3 milliards dollars). Turnover of order 40% accounts for the frontier trade. Fuel-energetic complex is the key field of economic cooperation. In 2008 Kazakhstan produced about 70 millions tons of oil, 63 millions were imported. Astana's plans are to increase a
production up to 80 millions tons in 2010 and 100 millions tons in 2015. Now there are two main ways of its oil delivery for the world market for Kazakhstan. Both of them pass via Russia - it's the Caspian pipeline consortium (CPC) reaching the Black Sea port Novorossiysk and the line Atyrau-Samara. Besides, there is a project on the Kazakhstan oil delivery in China by the pipeline Atasu-Alashan'kou with the initial capacity of 10 millions tons in a year. In May 2008 Russia and Kazakhstan agreed to increase a capacity of CPC from 32 millions to 67 millions tons of oil in a year -during the period up to 2012 in two stages. The cooperation in the sphere of power engineering (energetic systems of Russia and Kazakhstan function in the parallel regime) and atomic engineering (joint development of uranium fields in Kazakhstan), in oil and gas industries (the Kazakhstan oil transit for export via Russia's territory, purchase and marketing of the Kazakhstan natural gas for deliveries for the third country markets and the common project implementation on developing hydrocarbon resources of the Northern Caspian Sea is being developed. The cooperation is also being developed in the space field. Russia leases the complex "Baikanur" located in Kazakhstan. In January 2004 a lease of the complex was renewed up to 2050. A space rocket complex "Baiterek" is being established on the cosmodrome "Baikanur" on the base of bilateral intergovernmental agreements signed in December 2004 and January 2005. Russia and Kazakhstan cooperate in the military and militarytechnical fields. The Russian armaments are delivered in Kazakhstan and one assists to repair and modernize the Kazakhstan military equipment. Russia leases four military-testing areas at the territory of Kazakhstan. The Kazakhstan servicemen are educated in the Russian military schools. The border delimitation between Russia and Kazakhstan is ended (its length is more than 7,5 thousands km). The
leaders of the states signed a Treaty on the Russian -Kazakhstan state border in 18 January 2005 in Moscow.
The importance of the partnership with Kyrgyzstan for Russia is defined by its geopolitical position in strategically important region and the great number of the Russian population (about 550 thousands people; 15 thousands are from Russia).
The approaches of two countries on urgent global and regional problems and the problems on a development and strengthening the CIS countries, OBSE and Eurasian EU practically coincide. The Kyrgyz party is interested in customs union forming in format of Eurasian EU. A close cooperation is within the framework of SOC. The Russian regions are interested in the direct relation establishing with the Kyrgyz partners. The most active partners of Kyrgyzstan are the partners of Moscow and Moscow oblast, Saint-Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovskoi, Novosibirskoi, Penzenskoi, Yaroslavskoi, Omskoi oblasts, Altai and Tatarstan. The trade-economic contacts are dynamically being developed. Russia is a leading trade partner of Kyrgyzstan. In 2008 bilateral turnover amounted 1,8 milliards dollars. The main goods of the Russian export are oil products (about 70%), machines, equipment, carriers, food goods, chemistry production, wood and pulp and paper goods, metals and metal goods. The Kyrgyz import is clothes, glass and glass goods, fruits and vegetables. Education and science, the Russian language strengthening and keeping in Kyrgyzstan are the priorities in the field of humanitarian cooperation. The Kyrgyz-Slavic University is of great importance in this respect. More than 13 thousands of the Kyrgyz students study in the Russian institutions and the costs for education of 10 thousands among them are completely compensated by the Russian party.
With the republic of Tajikistan Russia concluded a Treaty on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance, more then 130
intergovernmental, interdepartmental agreements are signed controlling cooperation in political, economic, military, humanitarian and other fields.
Russia is one of the main trade partners of Tajikistan firmly maintaining the leading positions on its goods import in the country. According to data of Ministry of economic development of Russia turnover volume between our countries was increased by 30,3% in 2008 and for the first time it amounted to 1002,8 millions dollars; the Russian goods export amounted to 794,1 millions dollars and import -208,7 millions dollars. "INTER RAO EES" puts a large joint project into practice in Tajikistan; it concerns Sangtudinskoi hydroelectric power plant construction with rated capacity of 670 MW. Bilateral cooperation is being developed in the military field. In Tajikistan the Russian 201- motorized infantry division is stationed; its units are transformed into 201-russian military base beginning from 1 October 2005 when the intergovernmental Treaty dated by 16 April 1999 came into effect. The parties are interested in further development of the military-technical cooperation. The total volume of the Russian military-technical assistance for Tajikistan amounted to 68 millions dollars in 2006-2008 including about 21 millions in 2008.
Turkmenistan has greatly improved the contacts with Russia in the political sphere including at high level recently. The president D.A. Medvedev officially visited Ashkhabad in July 2008. The president of Turkmenistan G.M. Berdymukhamedov made a working visit in Moscow in April 2007 but there was its state visit on 24-26 March 2009. During his visit the Russians were suggested to take an active part in project implementation in free economic zone "Avaza" in the Caspian region, organize train ferry between the towns Turkmenbashi and Makhachkala and also play the role of a general contractor when building the eastern wing of transport corridor "the North-the South"
(the railway Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran). Inter-Parliamentary exchange is becoming more brisk. The group of the members of Council of Federation visited Ashkhabad in October 2008 after the visit of State Duma delegation led by G.N. Seleznev (1998) and the group of State Duma delegates (2002). In 2008 a turnover (without taking into account gas deliveries) amounted to 910,2 millions dollars (in 2007 -453,7 millions dollars). Export -809,9 millions dollars, import -10,3 millions dollars. The main Russian export is machines, equipment and carriers, chemistry production, metals and metal goods, food and produce but import is chemistry production, textile and textile goods and mineral products. Russia continues to be the first among foreign-trade partners of Turkmenistan both by export and import. In 2008 39,2% of the Turkmen foreign-trade turnover was the share of Russia (50,5% of export and 16% of import). The main sphere of economic cooperation is fuel-energetic complex. According to the agreement signed in Ashkhabad in November 2008 gas price amounted to 130 dollars for 1 thousand cbm in the first half-year but in the second half-year 2008 it was increased to 150 dollars and from the first January 2009 one will define it according to price formula on market principles. 121 enterprises with the participation of the Russian capital is registered in Turkmenistan and 120 projects and contracts with the participation of the Russian companies for an overall amount of 331,4 millions dollars and 3,94 milliards rubles. Some Russian companies -OAO "Silovye mashiny", "Kamaz", "Mobile systems", "Itera" and "Stroitransgas" are successful on the Turkmen market.
With the republic Uzbekistan one supports regular political contacts on a higher and at the high levels. 200 Russian-Uzbek intergovernmental, interstate and interdepartmental agreements are contractual legal framework of bilateral cooperation. Two visits on a higher level -A. Karimov in Moscow 5-6 February 2008 and D.A.
Medvedev in Tashkent 22-23 January 2009 resulted in signing the following documents: Joint declaration of the President of the Russian Federation and the President of Republic Uzbekistan and intergovernmental program on economic cooperation for 2008-2012. Russia continues to be the main trade partner of Uzbekistan. In 2008 Russia accounted for 19,1% of turnover of the republic (in 2007 -29,4%). Uzbekistan takes the fourth place by volume of mutual trade with Russia among the CIS countries. Uzbekistan accounts for 3,8% of the total volume of the Russian turnover with the CIS countries. The main products of the Russian export in Uzbekistan are machines, equipment, carriers (33%), metals and metal goods (23%), wood and pulp and paper goods (23%) but import - machines, equipment, carriers (57%), textile and textile goods (21%), food and agricultural resources. The Russian firms are interested in investing the Uzbek economy. There are 786 joint enterprises in the republic. Investment volume of the Russian party to form their authorized capital exceeds 1 milliard dollars. There are 300 companies with the Uzbek capital in Russia. The national security by means of bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the countries of Central Asia is one of the most important trends of the Russian strategy in the region. One should strengthens the corresponding cooperation because of unguarded state border of Russia under conditions of increasing drug traffic from Afghanistan in the CIS countries, Russia and further in Europe.
The leadership of some states -the members of OBSE had to regard the situation with a sober light because of the events 2008 in the Southern Caucasus. A military threat is real in spite of all the politician talks about peace adherence and frictionless development. So, in February 2009 there was a decision on forming Collective Rapid Response Forces (CRRF) at the summit OBSE in order to establish the united highly professional and efficient grouping of OBSE. CRRF will
allow responding all the threats and challenges more effectively and more strictly. First of all, it concerns sovereignty protection and territorial integrity of states, terrorism, extremism and drug traffic resistance, special operation against organized criminal groups and at last, warning and elimination of backwash effects of natural and anthropogenic emergency situations. The most perspective trend of cooperation strengthening in Central Asia is, according to Russia, entering into multi-aspect economic cooperation, a regional "common market" forming being capable of overcoming mass poverty on the base of stable economic development. Just solving these vital problems can help to form effective democracy in the states of Central Asia and provide their civilized development.
The success of the central-Asian vector of Russia's foreign policy depends in many respects on that to what extent the Russian party can help its partners to solve effectively their life-and-death problems in economy (water-energetic, transport, food, labor statistics and migration), the national security protection (struggle against criminals, drug threat and terrorism) and humanitarian sphere (secular education). A foreign policy must be a real assistant to solve the national problems. However, as foreign and policy resources are limited objectively they must concentrate, first of all, on problems being life-and-death for Russia. It's a reliable security in all its perspectives, favorable conditions promotion for economic recovery of the country and human rights protection of the Russian citizens and compatriots abroad. A criterion of the relations with the partners must be mutual sociability to cooperation and a readiness for a real consideration for each other.
Under conditions when there are active "new players" in the region having a considerable financial and military-political potential the Russian foreign policy needs extensive resources. So, as it seems
one should apply the principles of the necessity for additional costs in perspective strategic project otherwise it's impossible to achieve the necessary strategic purposes under intense competition over the postsoviet area.
One should also take into consideration potential Russia's conflicts with the other economic and political players in the given region especially with USA, EU countries and China. It would be counter-productive for the Russian interests to change this region into a new field of confrontation between Russia and USA. For us it would be more preferably to have advance information about the Americans plans in this region in long term in the context of joint anti-terrorist struggle and also a participation in developing and implementation of the major economic projects being profitable for Russia. It's necessary to use the united impact threat of religious extremism being common for Russia, USA and the countries of Central Asia. Therewith one should proceed from the main thing - the most dangerous scenario of the event development for Russia can be destabilization, disorganization of the existing secular regimes, interstate conflicts and religious extremist coming to power.
"Mir ipolitika", M.., 2010, N2, p. 87-98.
