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corrupt government, and the gangs of criminals controlling drug production and trafficking.
People have a great many arms on their hands, and political leaders boast their own armed units ready to support them at any moment.
The South of the Kyrgyz Republic is virtually self-governed.
The military presence of the United States is expanding; more military training centers are set up in the South of the republic.
Turkey is engaged in an active religious expansion, and also creates a military educational institution with a considerable ideological tint.
There are no prospects for a constructive dialogue with the Uzbek community, because no real Uzbek leader is in sight, who could agree to talks with the Kyrgyz side, which, in its turn, searches for and sees "Uzbek traces" in every negative phenomenon.
The Kyrgyz authorities are unable to give the Russian Federation firm guarantees to fulfill their obligations as a strategic partner.
"Etnopoliticheskaya situatsiya v Rossii i sopredelnykh gosudarstvakh v 2011 g." Moscow, 2012, pp. 587-595.
THE ROLES AND ACTORS WILL CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL"KABUKI THEATER" (Conversation which Dina Malysheva,
D. Sc. (Hist.), had with Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Naumkin, Director of the Institute for Oriental Studies RAS)
D. Malysheva. Many experts, here and in the West, predict a shift of the centers of global dynamics from Europe and the Atlantic
region to Asia and the Pacific basin within the next decade, where China and India continue to develop successfully, while the United States will retain its role of a world power capable to interfere with events in any part of the globe. What place will Russia take in this geopolitical situation and what will its prospects be like in the rapidly changing world?
V. Naumkin. It is difficult not to agree with these forecasts, taking into account the dynamic developments we observe today and learning the assessments given by experts. However, the crisis phenomena in the financial-economic situation in the West (both the European Union and the United States) are of a global character. Some states suffer more, others less from them, but the global system as such remains the same. Nobody is ready yet to throw a challenge to the dollar. Even the ex-premier of Malaysia and the creator of the "Malaysian miracle" Mahathir bin Mohammad, whom I met recently in Kuala Lumpur, said to me that no country would "dare ignore the U.S. dollar in the near future, because it would be restrained by fear of the collapse of the American economy, which would be fraught with a catastrophe for all economies of the world." And it was precisely Mahathir who tried at one time to introduce the gold dinar as the accounting unit in all foreign trade transactions. The wave of technological innovations comes from the West as before. High labor productivity, low energy intensity of production, high ecological requirements, etc. are justly connected with the West. Finally, it is because of this that we are striving to modernize ourselves by integration in this community, despite all serious political differences between us, and our justified dissatisfaction with our partners' failure to take our interests into account.
Besides the fact that the dynamically developing Asian countries encounter similar ills as the Wets ("financial bubbles" are a chronic
disease), they have their own specific problems. For instance, China is facing the problem of the ageing of the population caused by its many-year "one child" policy. The resource of cheap labor force of the landless peasantry is not limitless. Apart from that, the inevitable growth of production cost at the expense of the increasing requirements of the population will also change the conditions favorable for this growth. Of course, the unique labor ethics of the Chinese people, their exceptional discipline and industriousness are the inexhaustible wealth which will help the country move ahead. As to rapidly developing India, I have always been struck by the enormous gap between the highly educated dynamic elite and the countless masses of the population submerged in abominable poverty.
As to the United States, it will continue to force its values everywhere due to its enormous military superiority and irresistible Messiahship. It will continue to meddle into events in various regions of the world, including with the use of force. At the same time it should be examined whether abandonment of brazen interventionism proclaimed by President Obama will be real and consistent. I think that the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan did not go down the drain.
The suggested simplified variant of the geopolitical alignment of forces with strictly prescribed roles should be revised due to the high unpredictability of the future of this world of ours. The roles and actors in the global "Kabuki Theater" will definitely be changed. I think that our country will soon take part in such plays, of which we don't even dream now.
D. Malysheva. On December 15, 2012, the first stage of a referendum took place in Egypt on the new version of the Constitution which gave President Muhammed Mursi unlimited powers, which caused mass protests in Cairo. Can we regard these events as a harbinger of new revolutionary upheavals in Egypt and the Middle
East? And what other countries of the region shall proceed with the "Arab spring?"
V. Naumkin. The referendum has shown that the greater part of the country's population continues to support the "Muslim Brothers" and President Mursi who was in a hurry to take upon himself additional powers. Apparently, he decided to demonstrate his power, to sound out his enemies, and also to increase the credit of society's trust in the pragmatically-minded Islamists who sided with him .
There is no need to overestimate the strength of street resistance on the part of the secular, liberal and left-wing forces, and there are no signs of new serious revolutionary upheavals to be feared in the near future. Along with many other analysts I doubt the ability of the "Muslim Brothers" to tackle complex socio-economic problems facing the country. The point is not only their inexperience or the absence of reliable sources of outside assistance, which could lift off tension and satisfy, if partly and for a short time, the everyday needs of the 85-million population of Egypt. Much more serious counterbalance for Mursi and the "Brothers" is represented by the military and judicial corporations. Will the "Brothers" be able to put them under control, or at least to neutralize them?
The "Muslim Brothers" is a sluggish and clumsy bureaucratic organization. It lacks the necessary drive and initiative. Its leaders use "Stalinist" methods.
I'd like to mention the Salafite party "An-Nur," which has quite a few capable and energetic young members. If it gets rid of Salafite dogmas, which cause revulsion among many people, and steps on the path of natural evolution, I think that it might take great masses of people by surprise.
Incidentally, the question remains whether the Egyptian and other Islamists, who came to power through elections, agree to peaceful
transfer of power in case of losing the next elections. For by conviction of their ideologists, their power is given to them by God, but not by people's will.
Now, about the continuation of the "Arab spring," or Arab awakening. Incidentally, the term "post-Arab awakening" is now current in political parlance. In my latest works I have tried to show that what we observe in the Arab East could be termed "eternal spring." I mean that the region has regularly entered into periods of revolutions, coups, revolts, wars, mass protest movements, etc. during the past decades since the time of colonial domination. After World War II there have been three main rival forces as leaders - secular nationalists, Islamists and Marxists. The struggle between them continued with varying success, and those who were defeated suffered heavy losses. Today good luck was on the side of the Islamists. But will it last long? Who knows... However, religiousness of the population in the region is the anchor which keeps its civilizatory identity afloat and in opposition to the more powerful global force. It is not for nothing that during one of the brainstorming sessions in Turkey at which I was present, one of the advisers of the head of the Turkish government said, while explaining why the European model did not fit the Islamic world, referred to the not-too-distant colonial past and "over-secularism" of European civilization.
D. Malysheva. The latest developments in Egypt have marked a divide between the Islamists and supporters of secular orientation. Simultaneously, religious rivalry has been growing in the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf region, which is interpreted by certain experts as the Sunna-Shia confrontation supported by Iran, on one side, and Saudi Arabia on the other. There are also differences between radical and moderate Islamists. What are the reasons for these splits in the Muslim world?
V. Naumkin. We witness an exacerbation of inter-religious and intra-religious struggle in the Middle East. For example, a mass exodus of Christians has taken place in Iraq as a result of persecutions on the part of radical Islamists. Christians are discriminated against in other countries, too. Subconsciously, people committing acts of aggression against the Christian minority retaliate for discrimination against Muslims in Europe, as they think. To a degree, the Christians of the Middle East have fallen victim to the rhetoric of the former U.S. President George Bush, Jr. who declared the "global war against terrorism" a Crusade."
Now, a few words about intra-Islamic rivalry. The Shi'ites account for only ten percent of all Muslims. And there are very few countries with the Shia population. As a rule, the elites, states and parties waging political struggle are using religious identity for political purposes. The confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is of a geopolitical, not a religious, character. It is the struggle for influence, for the leading positions in the region. A great role is played by outside influence, the interests of global actors, and their relations with each of the two regional powers. Control over energy resources also takes a prominent place among the factors generating conflicts in the region.
D. Malysheva For two years already the drama of Syria has been going on inspired by both internal and external forces. Western countries are very insistent, just as they were during the events in Libya. Is there any strategic continuity between the developments in these two countries?
V. Naumkin. The Syrian drama is simply horrible. A beautiful country inhabited by warm-hearted, well-educated people, a country with ancient monuments exceptionally important for world civilization, has been living in peace and accord with its neighbors for centuries. The civil war going onthere has forced huge masses of people to flee
their Motherland. But it is not only the ruling regime of Basar Asad to blame for the deplorable situation. Religious radicals sponsoring militant units fighting the authorities and direct military support of them from abroad only aggravate the situation and bring hardships and suffering to innocent civilians.
Some of our foreign partners are ready to repeat the Libyan scenario in Syria without understanding that the latter is a quite different country. Sad as it is, Syria will never become what it used to be. With all our just criticism of the opposition, we should admit that the ruling regime missed the chance for the timely implementation of the reforms long overdue.
D. Malysheva. How would you characterize the situation around Iran? What developments can we expect in connection with its nuclear problem? What position toward Iran will the United States and Israel take and do you think a missile strike against Iran possible? What can Russia do to prevent such a negative scenario to develop?
V. Naumkin. The situation around Iran is extremely tense. The regular round of the negotiations of the "Six" with representatives of that country on its nuclear program in Kazakhstan has ended without any result. But the process will be continued. Is there a possibility of direct bilateral negotiations on this problem between the U.S.A. and Iran? In my view, this cannot be excluded, although Iran puts forward a number of preliminary conditions.
As to our attitude to the problem, it seems to me that periodically putting forward initiatives to overcome the deadlock would be a reasonable strategy, just as maintaining the relations of cooperation with Tehran and a constant dialogue with Washington on this problem.
D. Malysheva. How would you assess the present Russian-Turkish relations in the light of differences on the Syrian problem and
Turkey's refusal to participate in the construction of the "Yuzhny potok" gas pipeline initiated by Russia?
V. Naumkin. Russian-Turkish relations are developing steadily, despite the existing differences. Each side is interested in maintaining active cooperation in all spheres. Differences, mutual suspicions and "bad memories" in the history of our relations have always been, but our humanitarian and economic ties, millions of tourists, thousands of mixed marriages, hundreds of contracts and joint projects, deliveries and transit of energy resources, etc. outweigh any differences, all the more so since the actions of one side do not create a direct threat to the interests of national security of the other side. Russian-Turkish relations have not been worsened in any way even by Turkey's membership in NATO. We are convinced of our ability to resolve any problems through a political dialogue.
Sever - Yug - Rossiya: Yearbook of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations RAS", Moscow, 2013, pp 8-14.
