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роль трудових м1грант1в у становленн1 ринку послуг
ново!' зеландп
Войнова €.1.
к.е.н., доцент кафедри свтового господарства i мгжнародних економ1чних в1дносин
Одеський нацюнальний ymiверситет iменi I.I. Мечникова
Пухальська В. О. магiстрант мiжнародних економiчних вiдносин Одеський нацюнальний утверситет iменi I.I. Мечникова
the role of labor migrants in the development of new zealand service market
Voinova E.I.
PhD (Economics), Assistant professor of the Department World Economy and International Economic Relations Odessa 1.1. Mechnikov National University Pukhalska V.O.
Master of International Economic Relations Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University
АНОТАЦ1Я
У статл дослвджуються особливосп впливу трудово1 м^ацп на розвиток ринку послуг Ново1 Зеландп, а також придшена особлива увага секторам фшансових, транспортних та туристичних послуг. Для здшснення детального aнaлiзу було побудовано три однотипш регресшш моделi, за допомогою яких було оцiнено вплив таких показнишв, як кiлькiсть емiгрaнтiв та iммiгрaнтiв, отримaнi та нaдiслaнi у крашу гро-шовi перекази, а також рiвень безробiття, на стан ринку послуг Ново1 Зелaндiï. Було доведено, що на всi види послуг безперечний позитивний вплив здшснюе кiлькiсть мiгрaнтiв, а iншi прояви мпрацп по^з-ному впливають на кожну окрему пiдгaлузь ринку послуг.
ABSTRACT
The article examines the peculiarities of the impact of labor migration on the development of New Zealand services market and pays detailed attention to the subsectors of financial, transport and tourist services. In order to carry out the detailed analysis of this issue, three types of regression models were designed to measure the impact of indicators such as received and paid remittances, the number of emigrants and immigrants, and the level of unemployment on New Zealand services market. It was proved that for all types of services the indisputable positive effect is carried out by the number of migrants. Other manifestations of migration affect each individual sub-sector of services in different ways.
Ключовi слова: ринок послуг, трудова мпращя, Нова Зелавдя, фiнaнсовi послуги, транспортт пос-луги, туристичш послуги, грошовi перекази.
Keywords: service market, labor migration, New Zealand, financial services, transport services, tourist services, remittances.
Introduction. New Zealand is a developed island country the greatest role in the economy of which is given to the labor migrants who come from Asia, the countries of Oceania and Europe. According to the research [1, p. 77], New Zealand belongs to the group of leaders in the world market of basic services (tourism,
transport and other business services): its service exports and imports consist of more than 10% of these types of services, and the total share of participation in the world service market is more than 0.1%. These facts determine the relevance of this study.
Analysis of recent researches and publications.
The issue of migration is dealt with by a large circle of scientists; in particular the research of migration processes in New Zealand was conducted in the works of J. Fry, M. Borgluev, I. P. Tsapenko, H. Rutherford and others. At the same time, the analysis of literature shows that for New Zealand no in-depth studies have yet been conducted on the connection between the service market and the migration processes.
The purpose of this work is to determine the role of labor migrants in the development of the service market of New Zealand.
Results and discussions. New Zealand is a typical immigration country (together with Australia, Canada and the United States), which has been pursuing an open immigration policy aimed at attracting the workforce from other countries for two centuries. All this time the immigration policy was changing gradually. Scientists [2], considering its evolution since the 1980s, distinguish the following manifestations: the most favored regime for immigrants from certain countries; "points system" aimed at attracting immigrants who reached or exceeded the level of qualification mentioned; policy of accordance of supply and demand for immigrants; immigrant residence policy, which targeted foreigners who needed a resident status. At the same time, the country traces the mass emigration of New Zealanders abroad, so that the government is constantly forced to seek ways to develop an effective policy of replacing domestic residents with foreign ones to stimulate economic growth of the country.
Nearly 20% of New Zealanders were born abroad, less than in Australia (24%), but more than in Canada (17%) and the United States (10%). As of 2016, the largest number of immigrants arrived in New Zealand from China (18% of the total number of immigrants), India (16.3%), Great Britain (9.5%), the Philippines (5.7%), Fiji (4, 3%) and Samoa (4.1%). It is worth noting that in the total amount of immigrants are also Ukrainians, whose number in 2016 amounted to 0.2% [3, p. 3].
In the field of migration, it should be noted the special relationship between New Zealand and Australia which concluded the Trans-Tasmanian Travel Arrangement in 1973. According to it, all citizens and immigrants with the status of permanent resident of each country have the right of free entry to both of them [4].
In May 2017 the net migration in New Zealand reached the record levels due to the number of foreign immigrants, most of whom came from China, the United Kingdom and Australia. It was equal to 72,000 against 68,400 people in the same period a year earlier.
Statistics for 2017 indicate that the annual influx of migrants from India has dropped by 31% to 9,200, while the number of student visas issued to Indian citizens has declined by 40%, which nevertheless was offset by an increase in the share of migrants from the UK and South Africa. During 2017 14% of work visas (44,500 people) were issued, and the number of short-term migrants, which includes tourists, people visiting family and friends, and people who came to work, reached 3.6 million, which is 10% more than in 2016, and is the new record for New Zealand [5].
As early as 2010, in Australia a pilot project was launched to attract a small number of Pacific Islander residents as seasonal agricultural workers. The new Australian government has introduced rules extending the existing visa category so that Pacific Islanders could come to Australia for seasonal work, which was a significant shift in the country's migration policy. This decision was undoubtedly influenced the fact that in a few years New Zealand introduced a similar scheme that was thoroughly tested and found to be successful. Programs in New Zealand and Australia were specially designed to fill the shortage of labor in the countries, and also sought to promote their economic development [6, p. 16-18].
In New Zealand there is also a special program that makes immigration easier for the inhabitants of Oceania. As a result, Polynesians of non-Moroccan origin and Melanesians are 5% of the population of the country. New Zealand accepts specialists in promising areas of the national economy, as well as businessmen. A businessman-investor has the right to immigrate if he is able to invest more than 1 million New Zealand dollars in the national economy. Also, to carry out business immigration, you need to have a business in the country that has been successfully working for at least the last two years [7].
New Zealand provides foreign graduates with the opportunity to stay in its territory after completing their studies by issuing a work visa after the expiry of their student visa. Foreign graduates who would like to stay in the country, within six months after graduation, are not required to apply for work experience in the relevant field of activity for the issuance of visas for temporary use. Also the country has a high percentage of immigrants among the highly educated population. The country's innovative firms provide graduate students and students with scholarships and opportunities for research projects using their own research infrastructure to subsequently attract them to work in these firms [8, p. 145-146].
In April 2017 New Zealand Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse announced a number of changes to the requirements for obtaining a work visa, including new components of the payment aspect for obtaining qualified migration visas. Woodhouse said that these changes would further control the number of migrants arriving in New Zealand.
It has also recently been forecasted that net migration will remain above 70,000 people per year in 2018 and will amount about 55,000 by the end of 2019, which will increase the population of New Zealand to 5 million people. Zoe Wallis, Chief Economist of Kiwibank, expects that the benefits of migration will continue to increase, given the relatively stable labor market in New Zealand compared to other developed countries [9].
The influx of migrants to New Zealand contributes to the development of its services sector, which is 2/3 of the GDP of the country, provides its enterprises with skilled personnel, increases the level of wages within the country and brings new knowledge and innovations to it.
In 2016 the Migration Services of New Zealand issued 19,288 work visas, and the total number of temporary workers in the last ten years (until 2016) has increased by an average of 6% annually. The largest number of temporary immigrant workers came from India (14% of the total number of temporary workers), Great Britain (11%), China (10%) and Germany (9%) [10, p. 19].
Among sectors that involve temporary workers, services related to commerce, technical work, catering and administrative services should be distinguished [10, p. 22-23].
To summarize, the following main characteristics of modern migration processes in New Zealand can be identified: migration policy is aimed at attracting highly skilled foreign labor; relatively low level of illegal migration; the huge share of immigrants comes from Australia, the United Kingdom, China, India, the USA; bilateral flows of migrants are a "brain swap"; immigrants in New Zealand choose jobs not on the principle of prestige and high wages but on the principle of concentration of previous immigrants from their countries of origin; immigrants are younger and healthier than the national population and therefore directly affect the labor market without increasing demand for health services.
An analysis of New Zealand's service market [11] suggests that in 2015 its share in GDP in the country was 66% and it provided 72% of all employed people with the workplaces. The service sector has the fastest growth rate among all segments of the country's economy, and the largest contribution to its development and operation comes from retail and wholesale trade (18% of services in GDP), rental and real estate services (18%), professional and administrative services (15%). Other important services include education, healthcare, information technology, financial services, postal services, warehousing and transportation. The largest export service sub-sectors are tourism and primary sector services.
Models of Impact of Migration
According to research [2, p. 13], New Zealand's services sector basically benefits from the influx of immigrants to the country, because it is labor-intensive and the growth of labor supply stimulates the reduction of wages, which is positively reflected in service industries, reducing their costs. In addition, immigrants themselves increase the demand for services, in particular for hotel and financial services, bringing capital and earning it in the country. At the same time many immigrants who do not use their skills in the labor market create small and medium enterprises in New Zealand, including the service segment. The financial effect of immigration was defined as negative because of the excess of immigrants over immigrants.
Research by Hodgson and Poot (2010) argues that the impact of migrants on travel services is weak, namely: "A ten per cent increase in the flow of migrants from the country increases the number of New Zea-landers who visit this country by 4% and by 2% increases the number of people from that country who visit New Zealand; an increase in the number of New Zealanders living in a foreign country by 10% leads to an increase in the number of arrivals from this country and increases the number of New Zealanders who visit family and friends in this country by 2%" [2, p. 24].
To expand the analysis of the impact of migrants on the development of New Zealand service market, we use a mathematical apparatus, in particular a method of regression analysis. We select three sub-sectors - financial, tourism and transport services - and determine the dependence between them and the transfers of immigrants and emigrants, their numbers and unemployment rate. Based on statistical data [12-14] for 2000-2016, we build three types of models with the following independent variables: remittances received (X1), remittances paid (X2), the number of emigrants (X3), the number of immigrants (X4) and the unemployment rate (X5). As dependent variables we select the share of financial (Y1), transport (Y2) and tourist services (Y3) in the GDP of New Zealand.
After the conduction of the regression analysis significant models have the following form (Table 1).
Table 1
on New Zealand Service Market
Formula
II 0,776X1 - 0,232 - 0,045X3 + 0,035X4 + 0,273XS (1)
2^ II 1,286Xl - 0,304X2 - 0,190X3 + 0,255X4 + 0,mX5 (2)
= 0,246 + 0,776X2 - 0,036X3 + 0,011X4 + 0,147XS (3)
Source: compiled by the authors on the base of [12-14].
According to the statistical results of the first model, it was found that all independent variables have a significant impact on the dependent one (financial services in New Zealand's GDP), and also according to Student's t-distribution all independent variables are significant with a confidence probability of 99%. The R-square indicator equals to 0.966, indicating the statistical quality of this model. Thus, we can conclude that direct and strong dependence exists between the share of financial services in New Zealand's GDP and the number of remittances received, i.e. transfers from New Zealand residents working abroad promote the development of the financial system of the country. There is also a direct connection between the dependent variable and the number of immigrants and the level of un-
employment in the country. Negotiations on the development of the financial services market of New Zealand are affected by the money transfers and the number of emigrants. This result is explained by the fact that when traveling abroad, immigrants reduce the consumption of financial services in their homeland. For each emigrant, other things being equal, the share of financial services reduces by 0.045. Immigrant transfers have a more negative effect, as wage capital is exported abroad and only in a small proportion sent to New Zealand financial system.
According to the statistical results of the second model, it was found that all independent variables have a significant impact on the dependent one (transport services in New Zealand's GDP) and, according to Student's t-distribution are significant with a confidence
probability of 99%. The R-square indicator is 0.886. In this model there is a direct dependence between the share of transport services in New Zealand's GDP and the money sent, the number of immigrants and the level of unemployment. The inverse relations are established between the dependent variable and the remittances received and the number of emigrants. The positive impact of the number of immigrants on the development of transport services is logical, since immigrants significantly increase the demand for transport services while staying in New Zealand. Immigrant transfers can be returned to the country in the form of investments into New Zealand's transport system, which explains the positive impact of this indicator on the dependent variable.
According to the statistical results of the last model, it was discovered that all independent variables have a significant impact on the dependent variable (travel services in New Zealand's GDP) and are significant according to Student's t-distribution. The R-square indicator equals to 0.974. Based on the results of the analysis, we conclude that the number of remittances sent has the direct and the most significant impact on the development of the tourist service sector in New Zealand. There are also the direct relations between the dependent variable and the number of immigrants, remittances received and the level of unemployment rate. The positive impact of unemployment on the development New Zealand's tourism can be explained by the fact that the more unemployed people are in the country the more free time they have for consuming tourist services, and immigrants can increase their own consumption of tourist services and encourage their friends to travel to New Zealand or to improve the quality of services of this kind by themselves. The inverse dependence exists between the share of tourist services in the country's GDP and the number of emigrants, i.e. New Zealanders who travel abroad reduce their own demand for travel services.
All the coefficients for three models are less than one which suggests their existing indirect effect on the development of the New Zealand service market and the presence of other most important factors.
Conclusions. To sum up, we can note that the flows of migrant workers have a significant impact on service market of New Zealand. For all types of services, migrants' flows have a significant positive impact, while other manifestations of migration have a different impact on each individual service sub-sector. Regression analysis has revealed that the number of remittances entering the country most of all stimulates the development of the financial, transport and tourist service market because they are additional financial resources that contribute to the financial development of New Zealand and expand the tourism sector of the country's economy. An important indicator is also the number of immigrants who come to New Zealand as they are a flow of skilled labor force that stimulates the development of financial sector and provides it with highly skilled labor resources. They are also the potential clients for the transport and tourist service sectors.
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