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Dmitry Egorov,
Political analyst, Russian University of Peoples' Friendship
THE ROLE OF CENTRAL ASIA IN THE WORLD POLITICAL SYSTEM. THE "BIG GAME" IN CENTRAL ASIA IN XXI CENTURY
Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan) represents the largest bloc of states in the postSoviet area, except Russia. It occupies the connecting position between western and eastern Eurasia and the intermediate one between the developed North and the developing South. Besides, Central Asia is one of the richest world's regions in mineral raw material reserves. The geographical position and resource wealth make the region an important theater for the big political game.
The Great Powers have always been interested in Central Asia. The Russian and British Empires vied for dominance in this region in the 19th century, trying to include it into their spheres of influence during the so-called "Big Game".
A new phase of foreign policy history of Central Asia began with the Soviet Union disintegration. The newly formed states sought to become independent from Russia and develop political and economic relations with other countries on an equal basis. In a short time, they have established diplomatic relations with all states of the world, have become members of the UN and other international organizations, signed thousands of pacts and agreements, and entered into trade-economical relations with more than 140 countries of the world.
Until recently, Central Asia has traditionally been considered a zone of Russian influence. However, Moscow did not pay proper attention to the problem of expansion and consolidation of its geopolitical positions there right after the Soviet Union disintegration.
The result was the general financial and political weakness of Russia. Moreover, Russian authorities in the 1990th did not attempt to work out a suitable development strategy of cooperation with Central Asia republics continuing to rely traditionally on the Soviet model of center-periphery cooperation.
Thus, taking into consideration the low interest of the leading world powers in the region, which had not seen yet a particular need for strengthening their positions in the former Soviet Central Asian republics, a certain political vacuum has emerged and the national elite have remained there for quite a long time after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The authoritarian regimes have been formed in the regional states, focusing solely on supporting personal power of the heads of states and their clans. They relied on the army and security services and were extremely ineffective in terms of governance. After more than ten years of independent existence, most republics of Central Asia were unable to solve economic and social problems. The region meets with problems of transportation and transit disruption, and its countries face acute trouble due to the lack of energy and water resources and also the drug problem.
At the beginning of the 21st century, the international situation changed and rivalry for Central Asia began between Russia, the United States and China as well as other eastern states to a lesser extent.
Central Asia is of a great strategic importance as its position provides a convenient and effective communication between the Caucasus region, the Middle East and East Asia.
When the struggle for energy resources escalated in the 21st century, the interest in the region of the economic giants has increased because of the presence of rich oil and gas reserves in the five countries, as well as the convenience oil and gas pipelines through their territory.
The present situation in Central Asia is determined by several factors. First, the striving of the United States and its allies to intrude into the region through economic, political and military influence.
Second, the activities of Russia and China to strengthen their positions in the region. Thus, a number of regional organizations, engaged in different spheres of interaction (SCO, CSTO, EurAsEC, etc.) in Central Asia, has been established by the initiative of Russia and China.
Finally, the situation in the region depends on economic contradictions and border disputes of Central Asian republics, that seriously worsen the interstate relations.
The Central Asian countries are of key importance for Russia, which is determined by the following factors:
- Significant reserves of natural resources in Central Asia. Ensuring the monitoring over the main traffic routes has important foreign political and geo-economic meaning for Russia.
- The question of national security, insofar as the main threat comes from the South.
Central Asian direction is one of the determining vectors of Russian foreign policy traditionally. It is the historical cooperation of Russia and nations in this region, has determined the specific geopolitical position of the five republics of Central Asia.
For years of the USSR existence, close economic and cultural ties had been established between Russia and the republics of Central Asia. They could not even be destroyed in the process occurring in the 1990-s in the post-soviet territory. However, for the last decade, Russia has paid little attention to the events that occurred in Central Asia. The Russian Federation turned to the East in seeking the strategic and economic partnership only in the 2000th.
For the first years after the Soviet Union disintegration and in the course of further evolution, Moscow had been able to maintain actual leadership in Central Asia (although with variable success), because of the loyalty of the republic's leadership and the inertia of their policy. Besides, the rest of the world treated the newly independent states with a high degree of fear and this attitude has coincided with the Russian Federation's interests.
However, at the turn of the millennium, the Russian Federation began to abuse good attitude of the regional countries' leaders, and to conduct the policy of "inertia" there.
This could have led to undesirable consequences for Moscow, because the Western strategy towards Central Asia had been formed up by that time .These states could have been involved in the sphere of increasing the activity of Western policy. China had helped Russia in that case, to be more precise, the interests of these two countries coincided at that moment and that enabled them combine their efforts.
Nowadays there are serious preconditions for activization of Russia's policy in Central Asia. These include the strengthening of the military-political, economic and cultural ties with the regional countries, and also the extension of more profound and mutually profitable cooperation with China in economic and military-technical fields. Moreover, the joint solution of security problems and neutralization of threats in this sphere should promote the cooperation of Russia and Central Asian republics.
Kazakhstan is the priority partner for Russia in this field. In the period from 1991 to nowadays, the two countries have been able to develop a solid contractual base for economic and political cooperation. Kazakhstan was the first CIS country which signed the Treaty "On Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance" in May 1992. In accordance with the Treaty, the establishment of common military-
strategic space, the joint use of military bases, test grounds and other military objects provide for if Russia and Kazakhstan are threatened.
Russia and Kazakhstan are guarantors of stability in the Central Asian region. Moscow and Astana are actively interacting in the political sphere, adhering similar positions in the key issues on the international agenda and making great efforts to revitalize the regional organizations such as the CIS, SCO and the CSTO.
The law enforcement agencies and special services of Russia and Kazakhstan have been successfully cooperating in the field of fighting against terrorism and drug trafficking.
Russia is "the window to Europe" and also the major partner of Kazakhstan in foreign trade. But Russia itself can not do without Kazakh natural resources. Both countries are closely connected through defense complex.
Relations between the two countries are based on mutual understanding, aspiration of mutually beneficial cooperation. There are special relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan and the situation with the status of the Russian language proves its particular status in that country. In contradiction to the majority of the other Central Asian states.
Russian is the official communication language in Kazakhstan, and the presence of a significant number of Russian speaking people, including representatives of the titular nation, help to maintain mutual relations active and develop further cooperation with Russia. Russian is officially used on a par in state organizations and self-governing bodies with the Kazakh language.
The two states are interested in coordinating of common approaches within the framework of the security system organization.
It is important to note, that not all politicians and experts, especially in the West, are satisfied with warm relations between Russia and Kazakhstan.
Thus, during the last few months of the U.S. President John Bush term of office, Washington stepped up its criticism democratic elections in Kazakhstan, the position of human rights, as well as restrictions on freedom of the media. The working partnership of Russia and Kazakhstan in the field of energy policy has also caused concern in Washington.
Russia, despite its losses in Central Asia, has maintained different regional ties, including cultural and historical ones. The cultural factor is of a particular importance and is recognized by all actors.
Russian political analyst T. Dolinskaya notes that at present Kazakhstan is a major ally of Russia in Central Asia. However, in the medium term (5-10 years) one can expect Kazakhstan will be more actively involved in the economic cooperation with China and the EU. The basis for this trend, T. Dolinskaya supposes, will be increased competition with Russia on the market of oil and gas, products of mining and metallurgical industry, industrial technology and sources of investment resources, as well as participation in the formation of interregional transport corridors ("East - West" transit).
The principal basis for long-term foreign policy of Russia in the region should become "a geo-strategic pragmatism", based on the moral and ideological values.
Over the past few years, Russia has been active in the post-Soviet area, confirming the priority of the CIS as a sphere of its special interests.
Clear evidence of this is an extremely intensive character of foreign and domestic policy associated with solving Commonwealth
problems. This activity shows Moscow's aspiration to retain the strategic initiative in the post-Soviet territory in determination of the dialogue with the newly-independent states.
Since1992 Russia has followed the principle of a formal partnership in relations with former soviet republics and the main purpose was to include all post-Soviet states in a dialogue.
A. Grozin, Head of the Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan, the CIS Institute, believes that "theoretically, the best way is if the problems of the continent are addressed to the countries of the continent. As soon as, even well-meaning foreign observers interfere in Eurasian problems, conflicts are often aggravated. It will be better to solve both economic and political problems independently. In studying the problems carefully, not only the true content of the conflict can be found, but also a significant foreign influence will be noticeable. Today's division in camps, forced from abroad by both the Americans and Europeans, has not worked any longer.
Washington's representatives are very careful in their official statements concerning Russia's role in Central Asia (they simply keep silent about it). At the same time, they clearly indicate the USA' strategic interest in this region and the US military presence remains in the region for a long time.
In turn, China has become more wary of U.S. policy for restriction of Chinese influence in Central Asia. Historically, this region considered as a kind of "patrimony" of China and for the past 10 years, China has created an extensive system of economic ties.
The geographical location of China is, undoubtedly, important for the countries of Central Asia. Dynamic and accessible as it is, the Chinese market is of interest for goods export from Central Asia. For some countries of the region have been attracted to China, while others more closely cooperated with Iran and Turkey. However, all Central
Asian countries consider Russia as an unchangeable ally and major economic partner.
For the past few years, foreign policy of the Central Asian republics has become more self-sufficient. Having realized its importance for the great powers, the states of the region began to carry on a many-vector policy, seeking to benefit from cooperation with China, Russia, the United States and the EU.
A new tendency in Central Asia has been the so-called regionalization, i.e. ties development between the countries of the region and other states. As a result, the Central Asian republics have been paying more attention not to mutual cooperation, but to the analysis of the possibilities of cooperation with other countries, be China, Russia, the USA, India, Japan or the EU. Besides, abovementioned states are interested in the region as a whole, not in selected Central Asian countries. All events in Central Asia have been regarded from the point of view of their influence on the entire region.
The political regimes of Central Asian republics are a some mixture of democracy, authoritarianism and Islamism, imposed on an ethnically mixed population. In addition, there is rivalry for leadership at the regional level between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which increases the defense spending of these countries and destabilizes the already precarious situation in Central Asia.
The political leadership of Kazakhstan has realized that the peoples of Central Asia have not only common history, culture and mentality, but also similar geopolitical interests. The security of one country depends on the security of other states in the region. The idea has been expressed by the President of Kazakhstan in his work "The Critical Decade". Nursaltan Nazarbayev noted, that the national security of Kazakhstan had to be closely linked to the national security of other states in the region. The security of Central Asia should be
regarded as a component of the security of Central Eurasia. This region has to be part of Eurasian security system, which is part of a global security system.
The desire of Kazakhstan to become the most powerful nation in Central Asia, and then turn into a sub-regional political center, seems to be quite justified. Astana does not wish to remain on the outskirts of political events in the conditions of the consolidation of the Eurasian space, and regardless of the previous divisions into blocs and camps.
Popularization of Islam in Central Asia was another factor, determining the interest of major powers in the country. The growing influence of Islam on life and politics in the region could be explained by the fact that the population of Central Asia became more interested in national culture, part of which was Islam, after disintegration of the Soviet Union. Thus, the ideological vacuum, which was left after the departure of Soviet Communist ideology, was filled by dogmas of Islamic religion.
Having significant financial, economic and political resources, the West lowers its demands for democracy in the region. The main premise in Western policy has become to oust Russia from the region and restrict China's activity in the economic sphere.
The Central Asian States cannot effectively use the possibilities of regional cooperation for their economic development due to differences in the objectives, strategies, models of modernization and institutional foundations of the economy. Still, these factors have been playing an important role in the region, that make cooperation rather difficult at an international level. However, regional integration remains one of the most frequently discussed issues during the formation of economic policies in Central Asia.
In Eurasia, as a whole and in Central Asia in particular, it is possible to observe the processes of transformation and
traditionalization at the same time. From this point of view, one can assume that at present, only Russia and Kazakhstan are interested in the integration of Eurasia. The other states of the region either choose the priority of national development, or move to traditionalization, or conversion to the periphery of world politics.
In present conditions, the integration of Eurasia, both for Russia and for Kazakhstan is a priority task in the foreign policy, and both states can play a leading role in this process. For both countries, the development of integration processes means, first of all, a strategic solution to the problem of national security. From the point of view of strategic interests, practical implementation of the Eurasian ideology is capable to enhance the centripetal tendencies in both political and economic terms. The policy of broadening versatile contacts, especially with neighboring, can help to create a broad network of economic, cultural and political communications. This, in turn, will have a positive impact on the political situation in Russia and in the CIS countries.
In addition, the strengthening of intraregional links would be a real obstacle to the development of centrifugal tendencies, the penetration of Islamic fundamentalism and U.S. influence in Central Asia.
"Vestnik of Russian University of Peoples' Friendship.
Political Science series ", Moscow, 2013, № 1, pp. 60-66.
