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Моханти А., Капур Н.
Рост нетрадиционных угроз безопасности: случай России (взгляд индийских исследователей)
Моханти Арун — профессор, Центр российских и центральноазиатских исследований, факультет международных исследований, Университет Джавахарлала Неру; директор, Евразийский фонд, Индия. E-mail: amohantymoscow@gmail.com
Капур Ниведита — аспирант, Университет Джавахарлала Неру, Индия. E-mail: kapoor. nivedita@gmail.com
Аннотация
Конец «холодной войны» ознаменовался новыми вызовами в области безопасности, с которыми сталкивается сегодня любое государство. В наши дни необходимо сосредоточиться не столько на угрозах национальной безопасности, возникающей из-за конкуренции между странами, основанной на геополитическом равновесии, сколько на внутринациональных и межнациональных угрозах безопасности, которые не могут быть классифицированы с помощью традиционных исследовательских подходов. Охватывая широкий спектр ситуаций, эти нетрадиционные угрозы безопасности оказывают влияние на жизнь отдельных лиц, государств, на окружающую среду. В статье анализируются наиболее острые нетрадиционные угрозы, с которыми столкнулась сегодня Россия.
Ключевые слова
Нетрадиционная безопасность, Россия, терроризм, наркотрафик, миграция, изменения климата, вооружение.
Introduction
A nation today faces security challenges posed not only by an age-old threat of armies of other nations, but by a series of other non-state and transnational actors, besides having to factor in a host of environmental, demographical and technological changes1 that have the potential to destabilize the internal cohesion of any nation state. As the authors point out, the existence of international crime syndicates, drug cartels, arms traders etc. leads to "flouting of sovereignty" and affects the security of several states at once.
Over the years, based on global trends, several non-traditional security threats — that are generally transnational in nature — have been identified. Some of these include climate change, resource scarcity, infectious diseases, natural disasters, illegal migration, food shortages, drug trafficking, human trafficking, transnational crime, cyber crime and warfare, terrorism and religious extremism, refugees, arms trafficking, demographic crises. Most of these issues are not caused by two nations threatening each other or by the shifting balance of power among states, but rather depend on non-state actors that cause instability in different ways, which ultimately affect the national security in more ways than one. While some directly affect security of states, others are identified as threat multipliers by experts.
1 Srikanth D. Non-traditional Security Threats in the 21st Century // International Journal of Development and Conflict. 2014. No 4. P. 60-68.
While non-traditional threats have existed for a long time, they came into prominence in the years following the end of the Cold War, with the end of the superpower rivalry giving way to numerous new security challenges. With globalization marking its progress at a remarkable rate, environmental, health and financial threats were transmitted more easily beyond borders — not to mention terrorism, drugs and human trafficking2. But no matter what their nature, it is clear that these threats pose a challenge to nation-states and have hence become an integral part of the security dimension of a countrie's policy.
The focus on these threats also received an impetus alongside a rising concern for human security, which Wang3 defines as "not only referring to human beings in general, but also includes individuals. It highlights the idea that everything should be subject to the human's benefits and needs". The United Nations Development Program, which pushed for the new concept of human security in the 1990s, drew a direct link between "humanitarian, economic, and social issues". It was now the understanding that "security of humans directly affects the security of states and vice versa"4.
As the United Nations5 pointed out, human security is needed in order to address the "complexity and the interrelatedness of both old and new security threats... such threats tend to acquire transnational dimensions and move beyond traditional notions of security that focus on external military aggressions alone". Without addressing non-traditional threats, states would be unable to provide their citizens with basic human security, which includes "protection of basic freedoms" and "creating political, social, environmental, economic, military and cultural systems" that secure and empower people.
Some of the threats to human security identified by the UN include poverty, unemployment, hunger, famine, disease, malnutrition, poor health, pollution, environmental degradation, crime, terrorism, child labor, political repression, human rights abuses among others. Several of these form the core of non-traditional threats the world faces today.
A look at the nature of these issues brings into focus the idea that a threat need not necessarily include violence. Also, it brings forth new kind of threats while addressing both
2Xiangqi H. Cooperating for Common Security: China's Approach to Non-Traditional Security Issues // NTS-Asia [Site]. URL: www.rsis-ntsasia.org/resources/publications/research-papers/transnational-crime/He%20Xiangqi.pdf (accessed: 11.07.2016).
3 Wang Y. Defining Non-Traditional Security and Its Implications for China // China & World Economy. 2004. No 12 (5). P. 59-66.
4 Definition of Human Security // Human Security Initiative [Site]. 28.02.2011. URL: http://www.humansecurityinitiative.org/%20definition-human-security (accessed: 23.03.2016).
5 Human Security in Theory and Practice: An Overview of the Human Security Concept and the United Nations Trust Fund for Human Security / United Nations Trust Fund for Human Security. URL: http://www.un.org/humansecurity/sites/www.un.org.humansecurity/files/human security in theory and practice english.pdf (accessed: 27.07.2016).
"agency-based and structural causes of insecurity"6. The authors explain that the idea is to identify security as more than just "physical security in the traditional sense" and work towards a guarantee "against sudden disruptions".
While terrorism, smuggling, drugs were already on the radar of governments, the issues like climate change, environment, population are slowly making their way into mainstream of security studies. There is also a growing sense of inter-connectedness of various non-traditional security threats, requiring an integrated, multi-pronged approach. For instance, links between terrorists and drug cartels, between population decline and illegal immigration, between cybercrime and money laundering cannot be dealt with through traditional military responses — whether domestic or transnational in nature.
As Wang7 points out, different countries pay attention to different non-traditional security threats based on their respective threat perceptions and the prevailing situation. The Russian state too has been deeply concerned about these threats. The seriousness attached to these issues can be gauged from the fact that the Russian National Security Strategy8 lists terrorism as one of the "main threats to state and public security" while also acknowledging the emerging "new forms of unlawful activity" that intensify threats related to "illegal migration, human trafficking, drug trafficking, and other manifestations of transnational organized crime".
Not only that, the Russian Foreign Policy Concept9 points out that "new trans-border threats and challenges increasingly dominate the international agenda rising in proportions and becoming more diversified in form and geography". Listing such threats and challenges, the foreign policy concept points to "the risk of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, international terrorism, uncontrolled traffic in arms and combatants, radicalization of public sentiment giving rise to religious extremism and ethnic and inter-confessional tensions, illegal migration, maritime piracy, drug trafficking, corruption, regional and internal conflicts, scarcity of essential resources, demographic problems, global
6 Tadjbakhsh S., ChenoyA.M. Human Security: Concepts and Implications. London: Routledge, 2007; Russian National Security Strategy, December 2015 // IEEE — Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos [Official Site]. URL: www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf (accessed: 24.03.2016).
7 Wang Y. Op. cit.
8 Russian National Security Strategy, December 2015 // IEEE — Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos [Official Site]. URL: www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/QtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf (accessed: 24.03.2016).
9 Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation // The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation [Official Site]. 12.02.2013. URL: http://archive.mid.ru//brp 4.nsf/0/76389fec168189ed44257 b2e0039b16d (accessed: 23.03.2016).
poverty, environmental, sanitary and epidemiological challenges, climate change and threats to information and food security".
For the purpose of this article, out of the varied non-traditional security threats, terrorism, organized crime networks, drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms trafficking, declining population, illegal migration and climate change will be discussed.
Terrorism
The threat of terrorism in Russia, which initially arose from Chechnya in the 1990's, has slowly enmeshed itself with transnational networks, getting support and exchanging fighters with global terror networks like Al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS. While most terror attacks in Russia have been concentrated in the Caucasus, there have been regular casualties in various cities in the past years — making it a top security concern for the authorities. Russia's support of US in Afghanistan was also premised on the fact that the government believed Taliban and Al-Qaeda posed a direct threat to national security, with Chechnya playing a key role in the thinking10. The results were visible, with Russia seeing the lowest level of terrorist activity since 2007 just two years ago, with casualty rates falling by half11. Also, the global terrorism index found that terrorism in the country was being driven primarily by the unrest in the Caucasus region. The Russian government has repeatedly expressed concern about links between terrorism in Chechnya and al-Qaeda, leading it to extend support to the US in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks12.
But the rise of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria has complicated the problem, raising concerns due to its recruitment of foreign fighters from across the world, who gain the capacity to return to their native lands and carry out terror attacks. Apart from countries that are not members of Organization for Islamic Cooperation, "Russia and France have the most number of foreign fighters" allied with the IS in Iraq and Syria13. By September 2015, an
10 Bohn S. Russia's Afghanistan Policy: An Irresolute Strategy for an Uncertain Future // Comparative Strategy.
2014. No 33 (3). P. 205-221.
11 Global Terrorism Index 2015: Measuring and Understanding the Impact of Terrorism / Institute for Economics & Peace. URL: http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-
2015.pdf (accessed: 30.03.2016).
12 Cohen A. Russia, Islam, and the War on Terrorism: An Uneasy Future // Demokratizatsiya. 2002. No 10 (4). P. 556-567.
13 Global Terrorism Index 2015: Measuring and Understanding the Impact of Terrorism / Institute for Economics & Peace. URL: http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2015.pdf (accessed: 30.03.2016).
estimated 2 400 Russians had joined the IS, marking a number higher than any of its western European counterparts. Most of the fighters hailed from Chechnya and Dagestan14.
The blowing up of a Russian passenger jet over Egypt by IS is another indication of vulnerability of the country to terror attacks on its citizens beyond its borders. President Putin has cited this as one of the main reasons for his intervention in Syria — to prevent attacks at home. There have also been several suicide bombings reported from Caucasus, increasing fears of instability in the region as fighters return home radicalized even further by their time spent fighting with the IS.
There is also a growing realization of the inter-connectedness of various non-traditional security threats. For instance, as President Vladimir Putin15 pointed out, besides aiding organized crime, illegal migration and smuggling, rampant drug trade also facilitates terrorism — both domestic and international. He has also called for closer cooperation in fighting terrorism, as it "threatens us all"16. Till now, Russia has been successful in containing the radicalization of its citizens, with its 26 million Muslim population beyond the North Caucasus not posing a major concern to the authorities17. However, this does not shield Russia from terror attacks on its soil, making it one of the top priorities of security agencies.
Organized crime
Organized crime had its beginnings in the Soviet Union through illegal connections that misused "state property and funds". Experts trace its birth to the 1960's, pointing to it as a time when "traditional criminal world" came together with "economic or white collar" crime. It had close connections with politically influential party members, which saw organized crime penetrate the business world during privatization in the early 90's. The problem grew out of hand in the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with money laundering being aided by weak border controls, corruption and badly regulated financial institutions18.
14 GusovskyD. Russian Fighters are Joining ISIS in record numbers // CNBC [Site]. 09.12.2015. URL: www.cnbc.com/2015/12/09/russian-fighters-are-ioining-isis-in-record-numbers.html (accessed: 26.03.2016).
15 International Drug Enforcement Conference: Vladimir Putin addressed delegates of the International Drug Enforcement Conference (IDEC). June 5, 2013 // President of Russia [Official Site]. URL: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/18261 (accessed: 31.03.2016).
16 Putin — The Interview: "For Me, It Is Not Borders That Matter" // Bild. 11.01.2016. URL: www.bild.de/politik/ausland/wladimir-putin/russian-president-vladimir-putin-the-interview-44092656.bild.html (accessed: 06.04.2016).
17 Nalbandov R. Terrorism 2.0 in Eurasia // Central European Journal of International & Security Studies No 6 (2). P. 82-110.
18 Finckenauer J. Voronin Y. The Threat of Russian Organized Crime // National Institute of Justice. 2001 P. 1-33.
. 2012. . No 2. 140
Organized crime in Russia in the post-Soviet world has penetrated both the "business and state-run enterprises" at an alarming level. Over the years, it has strengthened its transnational presence with connections across Europe, US, Israel, Columbia and China among others. Some estimates put the figure of Russian organized crime groups with international connections at about two-thirds of the total19. Galeotti20 agrees with the assessment, pointing to the weakness of banks in curbing money laundering, high-level corruption and close linkages of politicians and crime networks as factors that have made Russia a "safe haven" for organized crime activities.
Frisby21 identifies the major sectors which have seen a deep penetration by the organized crime networks. Some of these included "finance and business, industry and trade, especially in natural and strategic resources, production and trade in alcohol, state and public administration, legal institutions" among others. The author points to estimates by analysts in 1996-97, which concluded that about 400 banks and exchanges were in the hands of "mafialike structures" with over 80 per cent of "joint ventures believed to have criminal connections". The weakness of the government and law enforcement structures at the time contributed to the problem, failing to control the rapid proliferation of organized criminal activity within the economy. Russian government estimated that about "7-10 per cent of national income" is controlled by criminal networks22. The same author also noted that these networks had "penetrated high government through the cooptation of existing officials with bribery, blackmail and threats".
Russian Procurator General Vladimir Ustinov in his report on crime in the CIS countries noted that close to 80 per cent of criminal organizations in the region "gained protection through connections with law enforcement agencies"23. An even more worrying situation is the relation between business and organized crime, characterized by the provision of "krysha" or "protection" (roof) by the latter to the former. Galeotti24 estimates that about 70-80 per cent of firms pay about 10-20 per cent of their profit for the purpose, which includes services like protection from other criminal groups, debt recovery and "an inside
19 Ovchinsky V. Mafia as a Form of Life // Russian Organized Crime: Recent Trends in the Baltic Sea Region / Eds.: W. Kego, A. Molcean Stockholm: Institute for Security and Development Policy, 2012.
20 Galeotti M. Transnational Aspects of Russian Organized Crime. London: Chatham House, 2012. P. 1-5.
21 Frisby T. The Rise of Organised Crime in Russia: Its Roots and Social Significance // Europe — Asia Studies. 1998. No 50 (1). P. 27-49.
22 Boskholov S. Organized Crime and Corruption in Russia // Demokratizatsiya. 1995. No 3. P. 270-274.
23 Curtis G. Involvement of Russian Organized Crime Syndicates, Criminal Elements in the Russian Military, and Regional Terrorist Groups in Narcotics Trafficking in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Chechnya. Washington DC: Federal Research Division Library of Congress, 2002. P. 1-36.
24 GaleottiM. The Russian "Mafiya": Consolidation and Globalisation // Global Crime. 2004. No 6 (1). P. 54-69.
track on whom to bribe within the local authorities", deeply affecting the law and order situation within the country. Their violent activities along with possession of modern arms pose another challenge to local law enforcement officials. Also, criminal networks facilitate capital flight from Russia, depriving the country of valuable investment resource for its economic development. It has been estimated that in 1992-97, $ 60 billion were "illegally exported" from the country25. In 1999, the Russian government reported that crime and corruption had gone up by 35 per cent26.
While new laws and international protocols have been ratified to deal with the situation, it is still far from satisfactory. High level of corruption in Russia that continues to persist further contributes to organized crime, both of which feed each other27. Such organized criminal groups are also actively engaged in drug trafficking and human trafficking, both of which are analyzed below as critical non-traditional security threats for Russia.
Drug trafficking
The problem of drug trafficking is also entwined closely with organized crime networks that span from Afghanistan to Russia to the rest of the world. Galeotti28 argues that the Afghan heroin reaching Europe through Central Asia and Russia (about a third of the total) is slowly creating new opportunities for Russian crime networks, making them more powerful. Also, not all of heroin is transported to Europe but a significant amount makes its way into Russia, posing a threat to internal security and public health. According to figures provided by the Russian government, about 8.5 million people or six percent of the population is addicted29. As Galeotti30 points out, the main concern here is "the growing proportion of users becoming addicts and the use of harder and more dangerous narcotics".
Federal Drug Control Service Director Viktor Ivanov also admitted to the Afghan drug route that has flooded Russia with not just drugs originating from the South Asian nation but also "Asian and European synthetic drugs and a huge variety of new designer drugs", adding that the border law enforcement does not have the capacity to contain this flow via
25 Galeotti M. Transnational Aspects of Russian Organized Crime. P. 1-5.
26 Borchgrave A., Cilluffo F.J. Russian Organized Crime and Corruption: Putin's Challenge. Washington DC: CSIS Press, 2000.
27 Holmes L. Corruption and Organised Crime in Putin's Russia // Europe — Asia Studies. 2008. No 60 (6). P. 1011-1031.
28 Finckenauer J. Voronin Y. Op. cit.
29 Over 8 Mln Russians Are Drug Addicts — Govt. Report // Sputnik News [Site]. 17.09.2013. URL: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20130917/183511725/Over-8-Mln-Russians-Are-Drug-Addicts--Govt-Report.html (accessed: 02.04.2016).
30 Galeotti M. Narcotics and Nationalism: Russian Drug Policies and Futures / Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Latin America Initiative. 2016. URL: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Fil es/Papers/2015/04/global-drug-policy/Galeotti--Russia-final.pdf?la=en (accessed: 23.03.2016).
Central Asia31. Even president Putin himself admitted that the authorities are able to intercept only 40 per cent of heroin entering the country32.
The seriousness of the situation has led Russia to call upon the United Nations, the CIS, the CSTO, the SCO and other multilateral institutions including joint Russia — NATO projects to come together to address the drug trafficking from Afghanistan, particularly in the light of draw down of International Security Assistance Force33. The drug traffickers have also been known to deal with groups "linked to international terrorism" exchanging drugs for weapons, and are linked to organized crime groups, adding another worrying dimension to the threat34. This is also the reason why Russia has been eager to cooperate in anti-drug trade activities, alongside counter-terrorism at the NATO — Russia summit in Lisbon in 201035. It has already listed the two together in its foreign policy concept, explaining that "comprehensive measures to reduce terrorist threat from Afghanistan and eliminate or reduce illicit drug production and traffic in a significant and measurable manner will be an integral part" of the process of stabilizing Afghanistan.
The rise in addiction has also led to a commensurate rise in the number of patients suffering from hepatitis, drug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV-AIDS. In case of HIV-AIDS, contracted largely through use of contaminated needles (66 per cent), the situation has been particularly alarming with Russia seeing the fastest growing rates for the virus in the world. Vadim Pokrovsky, the head of Russia's Aids centre declared that in just five years, the number of Russians with HIV has doubled from 500 000 in 2010 to 930 000 in 201536. World Bank estimates that by 2020 as many as 21 000 Russians could die each month due to the infection. The rate of spread of the infection is so high that by the end of the decade,
31 Afghan Drugs Inundate Russia — Federal Drug Control Service // Russia Beyond the Headlines [Site]. 13.09.2013. URL: http://rbth.com/news/2013/09/13/afghan drugs inundate russia -
federal drug control service 29790.html (accessed: 05.04.2016).
32 International Drug Enforcement Conference: Vladimir Putin addressed delegates of the International Drug Enforcement Conference (IDEC). June 5, 2013 // President of Russia [Official Site]. URL: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/18261 (accessed: 31.03.2016).
33 Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation // The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation [Official Site]. 12.02.2013. URL: http://archive.mid.ru//brp 4.nsf/0/76389fec168189ed44257 b2e0039b16d (accessed: 23.03.2016).
34 Illicit Drug Trends in the Russian Federation / United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. April 2008. URL: www.unodc.org/documents/regional/central-asia/Illicit%20Drug%20Trends%20Report Russia.pdf (accessed: 04.04.2016).
35 Bohn S. Op. cit.
36 Russian HIV-Aids Epidemic Worsening under Kremlin Policies, Says Expert // The Guardian. 15.05.2015. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/15/russian-hiv-aids-epidemic-worsening-under-kremlin-policies-says-expert (accessed: 03.04.2016).
10 per cent of the population would have fallen victim to the virus37. In a country with a declining population, the decline in health of working population of 18-30 year olds who form the majority of addicts, and the rise in mortality (270 per cent higher in 2013 compared to 2012) due to drug addiction is an even more troubling scenario. The severity of the situation can be gauged from the inclusion of controlling the "distribution of narcotics" as one of the "main areas of focus" for the state in the National Security Strategy.
Arms trafficking
In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian organized criminal gangs took advantage of the situation and "gained access to weapons" from the Russian military. In the beginning, Europe was a particularly large market for these traffickers, with "the border between Azerbaijan and the Russian republic of Dagestan and the borders between Russia and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania" being used frequently38. I. Anthony points to the chaos that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, listing it as a cause for the loss of "inventory control" by those in charge. During this time, arms manufacturing factories were also reported to be engaged at times in illegal sales of arms. Some of these weapons also found their way to Chechnya, with the route via Dagestan being particularly profitable. While government efforts have helped to curb the dire situation of the 90's, illicit arms trade continues to take place across the Russian border.
The issue is also closely connected to that of organized crime and drug trafficking where weapons from Russia have been found to make way to destinations as near as Europe and as far as Latin America as well as the Caribbean. It has been found that an increasing number of those involved in the drug trade are also making inroads into arms trafficking, "often in arms-for-drugs deals with drug trafficking rings and guerilla organizations"39. The instability in Eastern Ukraine over the past year has raised concerns about the flow of illicit weapons across the border. Russian authorities have already noted a rise in crime rate on the Russian side of the border due to the availability of weapons, especially from Donestsk and Lugansk. The long border which is not fenced or guarded at all places poses a challenge that is yet to be addressed by the Russian law enforcement. Media reports have quoted the local police of Rostov border region as saying that the crime rate has gone up by almost 20 per cent
37 Twigg J. HIV /AIDS in Russia: Commitment, Resources, Momentum, Challenges / A Report of the Task Force on HIV/AIDS Center for Strategic and International Studies. October 2007. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/hivaids-russia-commitment-resources-momentum-challenges (accessed: 11.07.2016).
38 Anthony I. Illicit Arms Transfers // Russia and the Arms Trade / Ed.: I. Anthony. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998.P. 217-232.
39 Galeotti M. Global Crime Today: The Changing Face of Organised Crime. London: Routledge, 2014.
in the first half of 2015 when compared to the same period a year ago, a fact attributed to free movement of firearms40. With the region still in flux, the threat posed by such arms trade remains.
In addition, the revenue generated through illegal sales further fuels illegal activities within and outside the borders of Russia, making it a challenge for local law enforcement authorities; not to mention creating instability in states in and around Latin America. It also facilitates drugs trafficking, human trafficking, leads to violence and causes avoidable deaths both in Russia and abroad.
Human trafficking
Russia has been identified as a "major source, point of transit, and destination for human trafficking". This has had particular implications for women and children, with the former being trafficked to various parts of the world as mail order brides or for prostitution. Also, women from neighboring CIS countries are trafficked into Russia, with the local law enforcement failing to tackle this problem effectively41. The United Nations estimates that 35 000-57 000 Russian women are trafficked every year, without taking into account the women from the former Soviet Union that are passed through Russia by traffickers. Taken together, Central and East European states are only behind Southeast Asia in human trafficking42. Today, Russian women can be found engaged in prostitution in about 50 countries across the world43. The author also points out that these organized crime groups have been aided by shadow economies, weak states and inefficient regulatory authorities. Especially in the dying days of the Soviet Union, the "transnational trafficking of women" received a huge impetus with proliferation of criminal networks and ease of travel. Organized crime networks see human trafficking as a profitable venture and have been found to be involved by courts in the US.
Poverty, low wages, illegal migration and inadequate social welfare provisions all contribute to people becoming vulnerable to trafficking, especially women and children. Apart from exploitation for labour, human traffickers also play a huge role in forcing women
40 Arms Smuggling on the Rise on Volatile Russia — Ukraine Border // The Economic Times. 06.08.2015. URL: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/arms-smuggling-on-the-rise-on-volatile-russia-ukraine-border/articleshow/48369487.cms (accessed: 22.03.2016).
41 Mazur L. Human Trafficking in the Russian Federation // Tulane Journal of International Affairs. 2012. No 1 (2). P. 1-11.
42 Tiurukanova E.V. Human Trafficking in the Russian Federation: Inventory and Analysis of the Current Situation and Responses / Report for the UN/IOM Working Group on "Trafficking in Human Beings". Moscow, 2006. URL: http://www.unicef.org/ceecis/Unicef EnglishBook(1).pdf (accessed: 11.07.2016).
43 Hughes D. The "Natasha" Trade: The Transnational Shadow Market of Trafficking in Women // Journal of International Affairs. 2000. No 53 (2). P. 625-651.
into sex trade sector — both via internal migration within Russia and trafficking them to foreign shores. Child trafficking for purposes of sexual exploitation and forced labour is also widespread. A lot of times, women are looking for better employment opportunities but instead fall prey to criminal networks selling them to the sex industry across the world. Some are lured through false promises of marriage, with experts estimating that about 75 per cent of women are not even aware they would be forced into prostitution in foreign countries and become aware of it only after their travel documents have been taken away by traffickers after thearrival at the intended destination. As Hughes44 points out, this not only directly affects the "well being and status of women" by having a negative impact on their social, political and economic well being, but also,by extension, affects the nation as a whole.
Human trafficking not only violates the rights of individuals, has an adverse impact on their health, leads to inhumane treatment of victims and in case of children has an impact on their overall development. Higher rates of drug addiction, alcohol addiction, infectious diseases and depression have been found among the victims. Human trafficking for prostitution facilitates the spread of the HIV-AIDS virus, increasing the number of high-risk population that is involved in sex trade. President Putin has recognized the severity of the problem, calling it "one of the most serious and pressing problems" the country faces today. He called human trafficking "a form of modern slavery that entails the most brutal and cruel violations of human rights" and pointed out that the money earned through this and arms as well as drug trafficking "forms the financial base supporting international terrorism"45.
Meanwhile, the Russian law has been found to be vague in certain areas, lacking adequate definitions and strict measures to contain the menace46. Weak law enforcement at the border, regular migration from neighbouring states and visa-free regime within CIS, aid human trafficking. High level of corruption among officials also facilitates continued existence of traffickers and criminal networks.
Declining population and illegal migration
Russia is faced with a rapidly declining population and by some estimates will face one of the steepest declines among large states. It is estimated that by 2025, 15 per cent of the population will be comprised of immigrants while this number will go up to 40 per cent
44 Tiurukanova E. V. Op.cit.
45 Russian President Vladimir Putin: Excerpt from the Speech at a Meeting with Members of the Russian Government. Moscow, Kremlin, October 27, 2003 // Embassy of the United States [Official Site]. URL: http://moscow.usembassy.gov/tip-transcript20.html (accessed: 11.07.2016).
46 Mazur L. Op. cit.
by 205047. President Putin has himself acknowledged the severity of the situation, pointing out that if the authorities failed to take any action, the population would be a mere 107 million by 2050. In an article, he wrote that "in a global sense we are facing the risk of turning into an empty space whose fate will not be decided by us"48.
This decline will be accompanied by an increase in the pressure on governmental resources required for caring for the aged citizenry49 like pension and health. Experts have also directly linked a decline in younger population to the problem of recruiting for the armed forces, having a direct impact on national security50.
The migrant population from Central Asia has been instrumental in stemming the adverse effects of population and the economy now deeply depends on their labour. Till the 2000's, "immigration compensated for 50-80 per cent of the natural decline" of population in Russia. However, by 2010 it was "fully compensating" for the natural rate of population decline51. Today, Russia is the second "most popular destination for migrants after United States". However, unlike in the 90's when most of these were ethnic Russians, today they constitute just 30 per cent of migrants52. It raises another problem of integration of foreign citizens into a society that is markedly different from their homelands. This raises the prospect of rising inter-ethnic conflict, rise in crime and "increasing social tension" between locals and migrants53. Russia has also failed to attract student migrants or business migrants, both of which are considered more beneficial prospects leading to a legal influx of better educated, young population as opposed to rural-based, low education immigration from the CIS countries.
Most of migration to Russia happens for economic reasons. While official figures based on issued work permits suggest 460 000 labour migrants in 2004, it is believed that the actual figure represents "only 10% of the actual number of labour migrants". Meanwhile, "the size of the shadow economy" promotes "a market for cheap and illegal migrant labour" and
47 Judah B. Russia's Migration Crisis // Survival. 2013. No 55 (6). P. 123-131.
48 Vladimir Putin Vows to Reverse Russian Population decline // The Telegraph. 13.02.2012. URL: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/9078672/Vladimir-Putin-vows-to-reverse-Russian-population-decline.html (accessed: 11.07.2016).
49 Srikanth D. Op. cit.
50 Balzer H. Nontraditional Approaches to Russian Politics and Security // Demokratizatsiya. 2008. No 16 (3). P212-228.
51 Riazantsev S. Russia Needs a New Migration Policy // Russian Politics and Law. 2013. No 51 (3). P. 80-88.
52 Russian President Vladimir Putin: Excerpt from the Speech at a Meeting with Members of the Russian Government. Moscow, Kremlin, October 27, 2003 // Embassy of the United States [Official Site]. URL: http://moscow.usembassy.gov/tip-transcript20.html (accessed: 11.07.2016).
53 Krasinets E.S. Illegal Migration in Russia // Sociological Research. 2005. No 44 (1). P. 7-25.
weak border controls ensure the illegal migration continues unabated54. Once again, the interconnectedness of non-traditional security threats is proven in this case, as authorities have expressed concerns about some illegal migrants forming links with criminal networks in Russian cities. The First Deputy Head of the Russian Federal Migration Service Ekaterina Egorova herself admitted that the influx of illegal migrants has created "ethnic ghettos" fuelling criminality and extremism. The local population has also responded with its own xenophobia, leading to several conflicts55. The official also adds that a control on this is also vital to containing the terrorist threat, drug trafficking, arms trafficking and slavery.
As Russia will require even more workers in the coming years, this situation is only expected to get worse unless the authorities take urgent steps to address it. The negative consequences of the situation include a decline in revenues accrued from taxes paid by legal workers, promoting shadow economy and impinging on rights of legal workers. There remains a need to institute policy measures that encourage legal migration to protect the interests of all parties.
Climate change
Russia is the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases and recognizes the threat posed by global climate change, listing the problems of natural disasters and diseases linked to the phenomena as one of the main threats to public security in its National Security Strategy56. Russian authorities also warn that the warming in Russia over 100 years has been to the tune of 1.29 degree Celsius, higher than the global average of 0.74 degrees.
The impact of climate change on Russia is expected to be mixed. The opening up of theArctic sea route will help trade, facilitate the development of remote regions and open up prospects for exploration of natural resources. A milder winter will increase agricultural production in certain areas and reduce the costs of heating during winters. However, the indigenous communities that are engaged in traditional occupations will be adversely affected57.
However, it is not all rosy. Scientists predict that the arable "low latitude regions" would become more vulnerable to climate fluctuations. The crop yields in traditional
54 Mazur L. Op. cit.
55 Egorova E. Illegal Migration in Russia // Russian International Affairs Coucil [Official Site]. 06.08.2013. URL: http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/7id 4=2195#top-content (accessed: 07.04.2016).
56 Russian National Security Strategy, December 2015 // IEEE — Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos [Official Site]. URL: www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/0trasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf (accessed: 24.03.2016).
57 Revich B. Climate Change Impact on Public Health in the Russian Arctic / United Nations in the Russian Federation. URL: http://www.unrussia.ru/sites/default/files/doc/Arctic-eng.pdf (accessed: 11.07.2016).
agricultural areas will suffer and become prone to drought or flooding. It will also destroy ecosystems, spread new diseases, increase desertification and cause a loss of crop productivity58.
According to estimates by both Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology and Russian Federal Service for Hydrometorology and Environmental Monitoring, "crop yield in the North Caucasus, the Urals, and the Central Black Soil Region (the main crop-producing regions) is expected to shrink considerably by 2020" while also pushing up prices at the same time59. Russian experts have already raised concerns about public health being affected by climate change, pointing to cases of infectious diseases rising in the Arctic community due to warmer temperatures60.
Already, the country is seeing increased disturbances in crop patterns due to "drought, wildfire and changing irrigation patterns"61. The author also points to studies concerning melting ice that threatens to change river flows in Stavropol and Krasnodar and arid conditions in the Volga basin. Wildly fluctuating weather conditions also wreak havoc on crop production, like intense heat waves and forest fires experienced in the past few years. Traditional industries like logging are also already being affected by, for example, a delayed winter in Arkhangelsk, while southern Russia is experiencing water shortage due to frequent droughts62. According to Oxfam, droughts in 2010 and 2012 have caused losses to the tune of 300 billion roubles due to poor harvest. The agricultural regions like Altai are already facing soil erosion, decreased production, drought and aridization.
Conclusion
It is a peculiar challenge for states to deal with issues of non-traditional security, as they try to grapple with "intra- or trans-national rather than inter-state" threats to peace. The problems of terrorism, drugs, money laundering, environment, illegal migration, human trafficking among others have worsened as the world became more interconnected due to globalization.
58 Perelet R., Pegov S., Yulkin M. Climate Change. Russia Country Paper / Human Development Report 2007/2008. UNDP, 2007/12. URL: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/perelet renat pegov yulkin.pdf (accessed: 02.04.2016).
59 Safonov G., Safonova Y Economic Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Russia: National and Regional Aspects / Oxfam Research Reports. April 2013. URL: www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/rr-economic-impacts-climate-change-agriculture-russia-010413 -en.pdf (accessed: 25.03.2016).
60 Mazur L. Op. cit.
61 Buckholz Q. Russia and Climate Change: A Looming Threat // The Diplomat. 04.02.2016. URL: http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/russia-and-climate-change-a-looming-threat/ (accessed: 27.04.2016).
62 Egorova E. Op. cit.
As Tadjbakhsh and Chenoy63 point out, threats to human security today are "no longer just personal, local or national; they are global". They explain that this broadened concept of security is based on "non-military security threats" as well like environment, disease, population, refugees and terrorism among others. Instead of a state being taken as a unit (when it comes to security), this realization of non-traditional threats puts individuals at the center of efforts to be taken to address these various challenges.
The fact that threats overlap, one exacerbating the other, makes it crucial that the state takes active steps to address all challenges with equal alacrity, if it is to ensure the safety and security of its citizens. In fact, it makes the concept of security more broad-based, taking it away from idea of a mere absence of war.
This development took place at a particular time in history, when the ending of the Cold War brought forth a spate of civil wars, terror activities, environmental challenges etc. The rapid globalization spreads the threats across the world more easily, making it even more apparent that the old idea of state security is not enough to deal with the new world challenges.
Each of the non-traditional threats poses a grave danger, both to an individual and to the state, if left untreated. The states have the responsibility to act on these problems both domestically and internationally. As we have seen, the challenges Russia faces are both intranational and trans-national in nature. Without active action on both fronts, it would not be possible for a single nation to address the situation and improve the lives of its citizens. The response to these challenges lies in both an increased state capacity as well as an active engagement with the global community to deal with trans-national issues. For developing states like Russia this is all the more important, as a lack of security has a direct impact on development.
Hence, in order to maximize human security and provide a healthy environment to its citizens, Russia needs to tackle these above mentioned non-traditional security threats by combining its local efforts with international ones at the earliest opportunity.
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Mohanty A., Kapoor N.
The Rise of Non-Traditional Security Threats: A Case Study of Russia (The View of the Indian Researchers)
Arun Mohantry — Professor, Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU); Director, Eurasian Foundation, India.
E-mail: amohantymoscow@gmail.com
Nivedita Kapoor — doctoral student, JNU, India. E-mail: kapoor.nivedita@gmail.com
Annotation
The end of the Cold War has given rise to a fresh set of security challenges that today pose a threat to the stability of any state. The focus is now as much on threats arising due to inter-state rivalries based on balance of power as on intra-national and transnational security threats that cannot be classified into the traditional security studies framework. Covering a wide range of situations, these non-traditional security threats have real consequences towards human, national and environmental security. This article seeks to understand some of the most critical non-traditional security threats faced by Russia.
Keywords
Non-Traditional Security, Russia, Terrorism, Drugs, Migration, Climate Change, Arms.
