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ЧЕРКАШИНА Е.Ф., СОТНИК О.О.
Взаимосвязь депозитной базы банков в Украине с макроэкономическими показателями
Предмет исследования. Анализ динамики депозитных ресурсов любой страны является приоритетным для финансово-кредитных учреждений.
Целью исследования является анализ взаимосвязей макроэкономических показателей, таких как: обменный курс, размер кредитов, ВВП, реальной заработной платы и индекса потребительских цен в Украине, с депозитной базой банков. Эти экономические показатели являются движущей силой функционирования банковской сферы, ведь размер учетной ставки будет формироваться исходя из их размера и динамики.
Методология исследования. При отборе факторов для построения модели были использованы методы анализа и синтеза. Для более детального исследования взаимосвязи макроэкономических показателей с депозитной базой была использована статистическая программа.
Результаты работы. Эффективность деятельности банков зависит от объемов и структуры банковских ресурсов, основная часть которых формируется за счет привлечения временных свободных средств физических и юридических лиц. Гглавным фактором стимулирования экономического развития является обеспечение необходимых финансовых ресурсов и увеличение объемов денежной массы в обращении, поскольку конфликты в обществе способствуют снижению доходов граждан, что, в свою очередь отражается на объемах депозитов в банках. Важным фактором формирования депозитов является именно свободные средства населения. Была выявлена значительная взаимозависимость между размером депозитов и объемом внутреннего валового продукта, а также размером кредитов, предоставляемых населению.
Выводы. Для реализации цели стабилизации экономики страны необходимо создать эффективные условия расширения кредитования реального сектора экономики, что в свою очередь обеспечит формирование значительных учетных объемов депозитов. Дальнейшие исследования будут направлены на поиск эффективности функционирования депозитного рынка Украины.
Ключевые слова: депозит, валютный курс, валовой внутренний продукт, кредиты, депозитная политика, банковские ресурсы, индекс потребительских цен, индекс инфляции, темпы роста.
CHERKASHYNA K. F, SOTNIK O.O.
The relationship of the deposit base of banks in Ukraine with macroeconomic indicators
Subject of study. The analyze of the dynamics of deposit resources of any country is a priority for financial institutions.
The purpose of the article is to determine the relationship of macroeconomic indicators, such as: the exchange rate, the size of loans, GDP, real wages and the consumer price index in Ukraine, with the deposit base of banks.These economic indicators are the driving force behind the functioning of the banking sector, because the size of the discount rate will be formed on the basis of their analysis.
Methodology of the work. When selecting factors for building a model, methods of analysis and synthesis were used. For a more detailed study of the relationship of macroeconomic indicators with the deposit base, a statistical program was used.
Results of the work. The efficiency of banks depends of the volume and structure of banking resources, most of which are formed by attracting temporarily free funds of individuals and legal entities.The main factor in stimulating economic development is to ensure the necessary financial resources and an increase in the volume of money in circulation. Because the conflicts in society reduce the incomes of citizens and as a result to reduce the cost of deposits, which reduce cash expenditures. An important factor in the formation of deposits is the available funds of the population.
Conclusions. To achieve the goal of stabilizing the country's economy, it is necessary to concentrate effective conditions for expanding lending to the real sector of the economy, which in turn will ensure the formation of significant accounting deposits.Further research will be focused on the search for the efficiency of the deposit market in Ukraine.
Keywords: deposit, exchangerate, Gross Domestic Product, credit, deposit policy, bank resources, consumer price index, inflation index, growth rate.
Formulationof the problem.The efficiency of the banking system depends on the provision of its financial resources. One of the main ways of attracting money of the bank is deposits. The importance of transformations in the financial sphere requires timely diagnosis of the current state of the banking system and the ongoing changes. Each year it adds reporting, which allows to verify the existence of certain development trends, make sure to overcome the existing obstacles and achieve the intended results. To determine of the development of the banking system is to analyze such indicators: the ratio of assets and GDP, the share of the state, the share of foreign capital, the degree of diversification of assets, deposit base, etc. An objective and comprehensive evaluation involves analyzing as many of them as possible, but the scope of the article makes it necessary to limit itself to considering only a few of them.
Analyze of researches and publications. Research on the deposit market and the study of factors affecting their formation should be distinguished V. Ilchuk, T. Kochetigova, N. Kuzma ,V. Lubiannikova , O. Prokopenko , U. Rosala, V.Uspalenko ,V. Fedoren-ko [1-4]. In their works, they considered the actual issues of today: trend sin the development of the deposit market, the dynamics of deposit resources, factors of influence on deposit resources.
Purpose of the article (statement of the task). The purpose of the article is to investigate the state of the deposit market of Ukraine, to determine its main trends and prospects of development.
Main material. The volume and structure of deposit resources are closely linked to many factors, and consequently with the change in the social, economic, political conditions and cultural life of the country's population. The current needs and desires of the population have a direct impact on the development of deposit relations and contributed to the modification of the deposit market. We will investigate the trends of formation and development of deposit resources and define the main aspects of improving the situation of the deposit market.
Financial stability is understood to mean a stable state in which the financial system can effectively fulfil its key economic functions. The main functions of commercial banks are to attract of deposits and to give of loans. The purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics of the volumes of these critical components of banking activity and their relationship. The study is narrowed to the consideration of deposits and loans of the two main subjects of the market economy - households and non-financial corporations (while not taking into account the general government, other financial corporations and non-profit organizations serving households) [3].
The attraction of free funds to legal and natural persons and the payment of interest costs to the bank is relatively cheap, since the issue of own securities or obtaining loans in the interbank market are more expensive ways of increasing capital. The attracted capital is the largest part of the bank's liabilities - it is the funds of legal entities and individuals involved in bank deposits. These banking operations are called deposit, namely, deposit - deposit[2]. Deposit (from lat - a thing given to saving) - is an economic relationship with the transfer of client funds for temporary use of the bank. The feature of the deposit is its duality in practical application.
The development of the stock market is one of the goals of macroeconomic policy in any developed country. The stock market plays a significant role in the development of the modern economy. They are the first indicators of the state of the economy and its possible fall. In the stock market one of the sectors of issuers is financial corporations. Financial corporations specialize in financial services or auxiliary financial activities [4]. To the sub-sector of other deposit corporations (banks) includes financial corporations whose main function is financial mediation and issuing liabilities in the form of deposits or other instruments of engagement financial resources included in monetary aggregates. Therefore, it remains relevant to study the impact of various factors on the aggregate size of deposits in the markets. With the spread of eco-
nomic integration in the world, with the close interaction of the economic systems of different countries, the creation of single markets and relevant infrastructure, the widespread view that the size of deposits of individual countries are affected not so much the internal indicators of these countries, but external. In this paper an analysis of the influence of external and internal factors on the size of deposits in Ukraine is conducted.
The study of this work is devoted to the study of the interdependence between the size of deposits, loans, consumer price index, real wage index, the official exchange rate of UAH to the US dollar and GDP.
Six economic indicators were selected for work, among which:
• Deposits (independent variable);
• Loans (independent variable);
•The official exchange rate of UAH to the US dollar(independent variable);
• GDP (independent variable);
• Real wage index(independent variable);
• Consumer price index (independent variable).
Source: compiled by the author on the basis of: [5-13] Table 2. Correlation matrix
The data set contains 10 periods from 2007 to 2017.
We constructed a correlation matrix to examine the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent factors, as well as the relationship between the individual independent indicators.
To build a correlation matrix, you need to do the following: Open as a group • Review • Covariance Analysis • Correlation.
After completing these steps, we will get a correlation matrix of the following form (table 2).
After analyzing the data we can draw the following conclusions:
The largest correlation dependence of the size of deposits is with the size of GDP - coefficients of correlation 0,947. But the weak interaction with the real wage index and consumer price index. The correlation coefficient between the indicators is 0.0717 and 0.111. This value is explained by the fact that deposits in deposits are not very much contrived by real wage and consumer price indices.
Table 1. Output data for further calculations
Years Deposits, mln.UAH. Loans, mln. UAH. UAH to USD GDP, mln. UAH. Real wage index,% Consumer Price Index,%
2007 283874,882 426867,348 5,05 720731 12,3 16,6
2008 359740,419 734021,702 4,84 948056 1,1 22,3
2009 334952,898 723295,123 7,7 913345 4,2 12,3
2010 416649,867 732822,794 7,7 1082569 10,5 9,1
2011 491755,914 801809,217 7,9 1316600 11,0 CO
2012 572341,941 815142,101 7,99 1408889 11,0 -0,2
2013 669974,071 910781,701 7,99 1454931 6,8 0,5
2014 675092,702 1020667,17 12,2 1566728 -13,5 24,9
2015 716727,649 981627,429 22,8 1979458 -9,9 43,3
2016 793474,632 998681,857 26,2 2383182 6,5 12,4
2017 898843,894 1016657,1 26,4 2982920 18,9 13,7
Deposits, mln. UAH. Loans, mln. UAH. UAH to USD GDP, mln. UAH. Real wage index,% Consumer Pricelndex, %
Deposits, mln. UAH. 1 0,89840982 0,855658912 0,947085788 0,071660834 0,119971409
Loans, mln. UAH. 0,89840982 1 0,724694407 0,800317173 0,350498008 0,195605247
UAH to USD 0,855658912 0,724694407 1 0,936477996 0,053787799 0,371462499
GDP, mln.UAH. 0,947085788 0,800317173 0,936477996 1 0,096488562 0,150755275
Real wage index,% -0,071660834 0,350498008 0,053787799 0,096488562 1 0,70772867
Consumer Price Index,% 0,119971409 0,195605247 0,371462499 0,150755275 0,70772867 1
Source: compiled by the author on the basis of: [5-13]
The impact of loans and the rate on the US dollar is moderate and the value of their correlation coefficients is respectively 0.8984 and 0.8557.
Devaluation trends in our open export and import-dependent economy have a pronounced seasonality: in the spring and summer the hryvnia is strengthened, in autumn and winter it devalues.
Accordingly, in the second period, the population's demand for the currency, part of which is placed on deposits.In addition to devaluation risks, there is a more global problem of high shadowing of cash flows and low trust in state institutions.
At the stage of the growth of exchange rates in relation to the hryvnia, when people begin to buy the currency massively, to save it bring to the bank and open foreign currency deposits.If the situation
with the exchange rate sis stable, it is much more profitable to save and accumulate money on hryv-nia deposits.
We have used GNU PSPP for a detailed analysis of the depend invariable. GNU PSPP is a program for statistical analysis of sampled data.
Figure 1 shows a description and a brief analysis of data for 2007-2017.
Take five models for the analysis of variation variables.
Applying the description of data you can see the minimum, average, maximum values, as well as the variation of variation data.
To determine the empirical relationship between variables, we use bivariate correlations.Bivariate analysis help determine to what extent it becomes
► DESCRIPTIVES
DESCRIPTIFS
DESCRIPTIVES
/VARH0LËS= Deposits Loans LWHtoLFSO GOP Realwagei n iex ConsufnerPriceln iex.
Valid cases - 11; cases with missing value(s) -0.
Variable yV Mean StdOeu Minimum Maximum
Deposits it 564857.17 202611.31 303674.33 050343,39
Loans il 832943.05 179622.46 426867.35 1020667.17
UAHtoUSO il 12,43 8.42 4.34 26,40
COP il 1533400.92 654336.15 730731.00 3063e3O-O0
Realviageindex il 5.35 9.66 -13.50 IB. 90
Consumerfricelidex il 14,50 12,46 -,20 43.30
Figure 1. Description of data for 2007-2017
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OOP ,45 .15 1.» 3-01 030
Rtaiwageiiwliv -11571.82 6207.4? -.55 -1.06 .121
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easier to know and predict a value for one dependent variable if we know the value of the other independent variable.
Simple linear regression is useful for finding relationship between continuous variables. One is predictor or independent variable and other is response or dependent variable. It looks for statistical relationship but not deterministic relationship. Relationship between two variables is said to be deterministic if one variable can be accurately expressed by the other. Statistical relationship is not accurate in determining relationship between variables.
In statistics, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS test or KS test) is a nonparametric test of the
equality of continuous, one-dimensional probability distributions that can be used to compare a sample with a reference probability distribution (one-sample K-S test), or to compare two samples (two-sample K-S test). It is named after An-drey Kolmogorov and Nikolai Smirnov.
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic quantifies a distance between the empirical distribution function of the sample and the cumulative distribution function of the reference distribution, or between the empirical distribution functions of two samples. The null distribution of this statistic is calculated under the null hypothesis that the sample is drawn from the reference distribution (in the one-
sample case) or that the samples are drawn from the same distribution (in the two-sample case). In each case, the distributions considered under the null hypothesis are continuous distributions but are otherwise unrestricted.
Factor analyze a statistical method used to describe variability among observed, correlated variables terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved variables called factors.
According to the analysis of the interconnection of Ukrainian deposit resources, one can conclude that the greatest interaction with such a micro-economic indicator as the gross domestic product and has the greatest correlation with it, as well as the size of loans in the country significantly affects the formation of deposit resources.
Conclusions
To increase the efficiency of using deposit resources, we propose the following measures:
- to improve the equality of the deposit portfolio, namely to increase the share of long-term deposits;
- restore public confidence in the national currency of Ukraine - hryvnia, stabilizing it scours;
- to impose strict sanction son banks that carry-out non-return of deposit sand delay of payments to customers;
- to introduce control over the management of banks, namely the publication of lists of bank owners, the legal establishment of strict conditions for the appointment of managing banks;
- to establish and control the maximum possible rates on deposits;
- to create more favourable for deposit or suffers, thus improving their own banking services;
- to establish legislative and judicial protection of the rights and interests of bankers, which, in essence, indicates an underestimation of the role of banks and even a certain disregard for them by the state authorities;
- to establish a system of guaranteeing deposits of the population.
References
1. ProkopenkoE.A. Evolution of development and development of deposit operations [Electronic resource] / E.A. Prokopenko, V.P.Ilchuk // Bulletin of Chernihiv State Technological University. - 2012. - Mode access to the resource: http://economic-vistnic.stu.cn.ua/ index.pl?task=arcls&id=1176.
2. Rosola V.V. Evaluation of the modern status of the deposit market of Ukraine [Electronic resource] / VV Rosola, NM Kuzma // Scientific Bulletin of Mukache-vo State University. - 2018. - Resource access mode: http://www.msu.edu.ua/visn/wp-content/up-loads/2018/06/1-9-1-2018-26.pdf.
3. Kochetigova T. Economic situation and principles of politics of deposits banks [Electronic resource] / T. V. Kochetigova, V.S.Fedorenko // Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University. - 2017. - Resource access mode: http://global-national.in.ua/ar-chive/16-2017/145.pdf.
4. Uspalenko V.I. Modern state of banking deposit policy [Electronic resource] / V.I.Usalalenko, V.V.Lubiannikova // "Young Scientist" No. 1. - 2016. - Mode of access to the resource: http: // molodyvcheny. in.ua/files/ journal/2016/1/45.pdf.
5. Deposits attracted by deposit-taking corporations (except for the National Bank of Ukraine) [Electronic resource] // National Bank of Ukraine -Resource Access Mode: https://bank.gov.ua/filesZ3.2-Deposits.xls.
6. Loans granted by deposit-taking corporations (except for the National Bank of Ukraine) [Electronic resource] // National Bank of Ukraine - Resource Access Mode: https://bank.gov.ua/files/3.3-Loans.xls.
7. Gross Domestic Product [Electronic resource] // Ministry of Finance -Resource Access Mode: https:// index.minfin.com.ua/ua/economy/gdp.
8. Real wage index [Electronic resource] // Ministry of Finance -Resource Access Mode: https://index. minfin.com.ua/ua/labour/salary/index.
9. The official dollar rate [Electronic resource] // Ministry of Finance -Resource Access Mode: https:// minfin.com.ua/ua/currency/nbu/usd/2009-01-01/2018-01-01/.
10. Inflation index [Electronic resource] // Ministry of Finance -Resource Access Mode: https://index.minfin. com.ua/economy/index/inflation/2007.
11. Monetary and financial statistics [Electronic resource] // National Bank of Ukraine -Resource Access Mode: https://bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/ article?art_id=27843415&cat_id=44578#2.
12. Inflation analysis [Electronic resource] // National Bank of Ukraine -Resource Access Mode: https://bank.gov.ua/control/publish/category?cat_ id=71468.
13. Macroeconomic Indicators [Electronic resource]] // National Bank of Ukraine -Resource Access Mode: https://bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_ id=23487024&cat_id=57896.
Даш про aBTopiB
Черкашина Катерина Федор'вна,
к. е. н., доцент, Университет державно! фicкaльноí служби Укра!ни, доцент кафедри банювсько! справи та фiнaнcового монiторингу e-mail: [email protected] Сотник Ольга Олепвна,
студент Унверситет Державно! фicкaльноí служби Украни e-mail: [email protected]
Данные об авторах
Черкашина Екатерина Федоровна,
к. э. н., Университет государственной фискальной службы Украины, доцент кафедры банковского дела и финансового мониторинга e-mail: [email protected]
Сотник Ольга Олеговна,
студент, Университет Государственной Фискальной Службы Украины e-mail: [email protected]
Data about authors Kateryna Cherkashyna,
Ph.D, Economic Sciences, Assistant, Professor, University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, Associate Professor of the Department of Banking and Financial Monitoring e-mail: [email protected] Olga Sotnik,
a student University of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine
e-mail: [email protected]
УДК 330.322.01 001:10.5281/1епоёо.2678024
ТКАЧЕНКО ОМ.
Диверсифшащя швестицшного портфеля приватного швестора як споЫб зниження його ризикованост
З метою отримання найбльшого доходу кожен ¡нвестор знаходиться в постйному пошуку опти-мальних ¡нвестиц'йний активах, як б дали змогу диверсиф'/кувати ¡нвестицйн! портфел1, м1н1м1зу-вати ризики та п'1двищити дох'щн'сть ¡нвестиц'й. Однак, альтернативне ¡нвестування на фондовй та валютних б'ржах, в мереж11нтернет, в банювсьюй сфер1 е досить ризиковим i потребуе в'щ ¡н-вестора в'щпов'щних знань, умнь та досв'щу.
У статт'1 досл'щжуеться р1зноман1тн1 /нвестицйнi активи, що слугують засобом диверсиф'1кацИ ¡н-вестицйного портфелю з метою зменшення його ризиковост'1. В межах досл'щження автор зосе-реджуе увагу на ¡нвестиц'ях в дорогоц1нн1 метали, нерухомсть, банювсью депозити, ¡ноземну валюту, ц\нн'1 папери, онлайнЧнвестицИ. Досл'щжуються переваги, недолки та особливост'1 капталовкладень приватними особами в ц ¡нвестицйн! активи. Особливий акцент робиться на здйсненнi ¡нвестицй в дорогоц1нн1 метали, а саме в золото. В статт'1 розглянут'1 р1зн1 ¡нструменти ¡нвестування в золото: придбання злиткв, монет та ювелрних вироб'в, ¡нвестування в металев'1 рахунки та №еЬМопеу.
Висновки. Розглянут'1 способи ¡нвестування доцльно розглядати лише як довгостроков'1 кап-таловкладення, терм'1ни яких становлять понад десять рок'1в; кожен ¡нструмент мае свй ступ'шь ризику та р'вень дохщносл; ринок нетрадицйних форм ¡нвестування в Укран лише розвиваеться.
КлючовI слова: ¡нвестицИ, ¡нвестування, диверсиф'/кац'я, дорогоц1нн1 метали, нерухомсть, альтернативне ¡нвестування, ¡нвестування в банювсью депозити, ¡нвестування в золото.
ТКАЧЕНКО ОН.
Диверсификация инвестиционного портфеля частного инвестора как способ снижения его рискованности
С целью получения наибольшего дохода каждый инвестор находится в постоянном поиске оптимальных инвестиционных активов, которые позволили бы диверсифицировать инвестиционные портфели, минимизировать риски и повысить доходность инвестиций. Однако, альтернативное инвестирование на фондовой и валютных биржах, в сети Интернет, в банковской сфере является достаточно рискованным и требует от инвестора соответствующих знаний, умений и опыта.
В статье исследуются различные инвестиционные активы, которые служат средством диверсификации инвестиционного портфеля с целью уменьшения его рискованности. В рамках исследо-
40 Формування ринкових вщносин в УкраУж №3 (214)/2019
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