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МАКАРЯН А.Р.
СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ВНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМИ ФАКТОРАМИ И РЕАЛЬНЫМ СЕКТОРОМ ЭКОНОМИКИ СТРАН С НИЗКИМ УРОВНЕМ ДОХОДА __И АРМЕНИИ И ЕЕ УЯЗВИМОСТЬ _
МАКАРЯН А.Р.
СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ВНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМИ ФАКТОРАМИ И РЕАЛЬНЫМ СЕКТОРОМ ЭКОНОМИКИ СТРАН С НИЗКИМ УРОВНЕМ ДОХОДА И АРМЕНИ И И ЕЕ УЯЗВИМОСТЬ
Аннотация. Основываясь на обзор литературы путей передачи глобального финансового кризиса в развивающие страны и Армению, и роли внешних факторов в макроэкономической уязвимости стран с низким уровнем доходов автор предлагает две концептуальные модели для описания и обсуждения уязвимости реального сектора экономики страны с низким уровнем дохода к внешним шокам и передачи негативного влияния этих шоков внутри страны, а также процесс передачи внешних шоков на реальный сектор экономики Армении. После обсуждения механизмов передачи негативного влияния описанных факторов на реальный сектор экономики страны с низким уровнем дохода и Армении, автор приходит к выводу, что восстановление экономики после экономического спада и/или кризиса во многом зависит от скорости восстановления внутреннего спроса учитывая снижение внешнего спроса на услуги и товары, производимые внутри страны, сокращения объемов денежных переводов, события, происходящие в банковском секторе, В этих условиях важная роль отведена дискреционной фискальной политики, которая должна осуществляется правительством для смягчения негативного воздействия кризиса, если в стране с низким уровнем дохода отсутствует развитая система автоматических стабилизаторов. В случае Армении, автор суммирует, что негативные события в России могут повлиять на армянскую экономику через эффект рецессии и/или доходов, если даже не будет зафиксирован спад мировой экономики.
Ключевые слова: макроэкономическая уязвимость, внешние факторы, пути передачи, шоки, валютный кризис, денежные переводы, экспорт, инвестиции, потребление
МАКАНУАЫ А.Я
THE REAL-SIDE LINKAGES AND THE VULNERABILITY OF REAL SECTORS OF LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES AND ARMENIA
Abstract. Based on the literature review on the transmission channels of the Global Financial Crisis to developing countries and Armenia, and the role of external factors in explaining the macroeconomic vulnerability of low-income countries, the author proposes two conceptual frameworks to describe and discuss the vulnerability of real sectors of economies of low-income countries to external shocks and their inward transmission, and the process of transmission of the discussed shocks to the real sector of economy of Armenia. Upon discussing the mechanisms of transmission of the negative impact of the described factors to the real sectors of economy of low-income countries and Armenia, the author concludes that the recovery of economy from the economic downturn and/or crisis largely depends on the speed of recovery of the domestic demand taking into account decline in external demand for locally produced goods and services, decrease in remittances, and the developments in the banking sector. In these circumstances the di scre-tionary fiscal policy to be implemented by the government plays a crucial role in mitigating the negative impact of the crisis, if a low-income nation lacks an advanced system of automatic stabilizers. In case of Armenia, the author concludes that developments in Russia could affect the Armenian economy via income and/or recession effect, regardless the fact that the gl obal economy could report a decline or not.
Keywords: macroeconomic vulnerability, external factors, transmission channels, shocks, currency crisis, remittances, exports, investments, consumption
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was a real test to the resilience of both emerging markets (EM) and low-income countries (LIC), since at the second half of 2008 the "decoupling" hypothesis was rejected and the world economy entered into the "Globally Synchronized Slowdown" phase that turned into the "Global Recession" in 2009 [ 1, p.691] when the global GDP shrank by 2.08% y/y1. In 2000-2008, the economic growth of the low income countries was highly correlated with the GDP growth rates of the systemic emerging markets (the inter- and intraregional leaders), and the correlation even had strengthened over the period 1995-1999 (0.958 comparing to 0.566) [2, p. 3, 11]. Over the same period the growth correlation between LICs and advanced countries weakened (0.958 comparing to 0.566) [2, p. 11]. Meanwhile, over the period 2000-2008 the correlation between the GDP growth rate of the EM leaders and the growth rate of LIC exports over GDP turned positive and was strong comparing to the period 1995-1999 (0.630 comparing to -0.055), while the correlations be-
1 World Bank, World Development Indicators Online Database, last updated: 04/14/2015, last accessed: 04/23/2015.
tween GDP growth of advanced countries and LIC exports even strengthened over the same period (0.701 comparing to 0.598) [2, p.11]. The empirical findings of Dabla-Norris et al (2012) indicate that the economic growth in LlCs is affected by the external factors, and the extent of the growth spillovers depends on trade and commodity price linkages [2, p.23]. The authors conclude that trade and financial linkages between LICs and the EM leaders are the source of the macroeconomic vulnerability of LICs [2, p.23]. According to the International Monetary Fund (2011) the dominant "transmission channels of inward spillovers" that reflect real-side linkages between LICs and other countries are the folowings: trade flows, foreign direct investments (FDI), remittances, terms of trade, aid, and the non-dominant source of the vulnerability of these countries are financial sector flows [3, p.11]. The IMF (2011) stresses the role of common shocks (global recession, decline in commodity prices, and etc.) that negatively affect the economy of LICs, however the extent of the negative impact varies substantially across countries depending on the reliance of these countries on sources of exports income (goods vs. services) and financing [3, p.11]. The GFC transmission channels to developing countries and Armenia, in particular, are summarized in table 1, while the impact of the mechanisms of "transmission channels of inward spillovers" on the real sectors of economy of LICs are depicted in Figure 1.
Decline in the growth rates of advanced economies and an EM leader (Russia in case of Armenia) in the region and/or recession in these countries, changes in commodity prices due to decline in the global demand negatively affect the real sectors of economies of LICs (especially commodity exporters) mainly through domestic demand channel (decline in the domestic demand).
Shrinking remittances (especially from the main destination), received by a low-income nation both in nominal and real terms (if the EM leader reports a currency crisis) causes decline in household income (remittances-recipient), thus forcing them to reduce the final consumption expenditure. The decline in the household consumption expenditure through the "income channel" is transmitted to the private companies. Shrinking revenues of private companies due to decline in exports (trade channel) and changes in the household consumption expenditure causes negative developments in the labor market, thus resulting in even greater decline in the household consumption expenditure (labor market channel).
Table. 1.
The GFC transmission Channels to Developing Countries and Armenia 2
Developing Countries Armenia
• International Trade
• Commodity prices; manufactured goods; • Remittances
• Services (tourism, transport) • Exports Demand
• Terms of Trade • Commodity prices
• Migration and transfers or remittances • Tourism (Diasporan)
• Official Development Aid • Foreign aid (official assistance, aid)
• Private Capital Flows • Private Capital Flows
• FDI and Portfolio Investments • FDI
• Cross-border bank flows
2 Sources: [4, pp.2-17]; [5, pp.7-21]; [6, pp.7]; [7, pp.15-21]; [8, p.6]; [9, p.12]; [10, pp.6-13]; [11, slide 9].
МАКАРЯН А.Р.
СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ВНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМИ ФАКТОРАМИ И РЕАЛЬНЫМ СЕКТОРОМ ЭКОНОМИКИ СТРАН С НИЗКИМ УРОВНЕМ ДОХОДА __И АРМЕНИИ И ЕЕ УЯЗВИМОСТЬ _
Transmission of negative impact to the real sector of economy
Recession Effect or decline in economic activity (changes in the growth rates of economies of EM leaders and advanced economies) Changes in Commodity prices Increase of international interest rates Bank flows
Remittances Trade FDI ODA
Imp Sect
act on the Real :or of Economy
D omestic Demand Main Economic A gents
Households
• Decline in final onsumption expenditure
Income effect
Income effect
Price effect
Labor Market
Private companies
• Decline in spending on fixed capital
• Decline in inventories
Social sector Incentives and other and Subsi-spending dies
Government
• Decline in spending on fixed capital
• Decline in final consumption expenditure
/
Income effect
Stricter requirements for loans by banks
Impact on the financial sector: banking sector
• The impact of decision of headquarters or parent banks on the bank subsidiaries in LICs
• Decrease in loans provided by the international financial organizations, and etc. to local banks
• More expensive borrowing (cost of funding)
Figure 1. Vulnerability of real sectors of LIC economies to external shocks and their transmission3
In 2009, the exports of Armenian goods (in trade statistics) declined by 31.8% y/y, comprising 748.84 million US dollars (comparing to 1.06 billion USD in 2008), while the decline in services export accounted for only 9% y/y over the same period4. In 2009, severe decline was reported in exports of "Beverages, spirits and vinegar," (44.9%), "Iron and steel" (43.5%)5 and other groups of exported goods, reflecting the vulnerability of Armenian economy to the common shock, decline in commodity prices, and "recession and/or income effect" associated with the downturn of the Russian economy.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) state that "greater (downward) wage flexibility" in EMs mitigates employment during the period of economic decline and this could be partially explained by the "gaps in the social safety nef in these countries compared to advanced nations [12, p.229]. In Armenia, 33% of households reported decline in household income in 2009 compared to 2008, and in case of 13% of households the decline was due to lower wages, for 14% of households this decline was associated with the changes in self-employment income, while 19% of households stated that the decline in household income was due to changes in remittances received both from abroad and domestically [13, p.15]. In 2009, negative developments in the labor markets of Russia and other nations (homeland of Diasporan Armenians) seriously affected compensation of employees (primary in-
3 Source: Anna Makaryan, 2015.
4 Source: The National Statistical Service of Armenia (NSS), Foreign Account, Balance of Payments 5 Online Database (http://www.armstat.am/en/?nid=443, last accessed: 05/07/2015).
5 Source: NSS, Foreign Trade of the Republic of Armenia for 20l1 (According to the Commodity Nomenclature of External Economic Activity at 2-digit level), 2012, p.33, 35. Author's own calculations.
come), and personal transfers (current transfers between resident and nonresident households), and the decline comprised respectively 21.8% y/y and 29.5% y/y6. Overall, in Armenia, the real decline of household final consumption expenditure in 2009 was about 4.5% y/y7. Over the same period the number of employees decreased by about 30.3 thousand people, and the unemployment rate increases by 2.3 p.p.8. Increase in prices associated with the depreciation and/or devaluation of the national currency (price effect) negatively affects the household consumption expenditure as well.
The decline in remittances received, and exports could even worsen the current account deficit thus causing currency crisis, that are orderly devaluations in LICs according to Bleaney (2005), since these crises are "motivated by current account imbalances and/or elimination of distortions" or are "current account events" [14, p.79, 80]. In March 2009, a currency crisis was reported in Armenia [15, p.63] that turned into financial and economic crisis (based on the definitions summarized by Avetisyan et al (2012) [16, p.26]), since in 2009 the real GDP decline in Armenia was 14.1% y/y, while in 2008, a 6.9% GDP growth y/y9 was reported. Depreciated national currency affects the purchasing power of household income in terms of goods (manufactured locally with the substantial supply of imported parts and/or components or raw materials) and/or services available to be supplied or purchased at the same amount of money10.
The economic decline, changes in the household consumption expenditure, revenues earned by the private companies both in the domestic and foreign markets enforces them to cut spending and investments in fixed capital and inventories, hence causing decline in one of the expenditure components of the GDP, gross capital formation. The "most cyclical component of GDP", the gross fixed capital formation that is "affected directly by changes in the availability and cost of funding"[17, p.35] dropped by 25.4% y/y in 2009 in Armenia, while the decline of the gross capital formation over the same period was about 30.9% y/y11.The inflow of foreign direct investments declines (reinvested earnings by resident companies with foreign ownership, greenfield and equity investments) mainly attributed to the economic decline in other countries could have negative impact of the gross capital formation as well. The inflow of FDI in Armenia declined by 268.8 million USD in 2009 over 2008 (the largest inflow since 2000 amounting to more than 1 billion USD)12.
The declining earnings and income of private companies and households reduce the tax revenue (income effect), thus forcing the government to cut spending on the social protection system, public healthcare and education, infrastructure, and eliminate or reduce subsidies and incentives to be provided to private companies, unless the government mainly through the increase in the public external debt (depending on the macroeconomic stability and/or position of an economy) manages to cope with the aftermath of the crisis by implementing respective crisis response measures. In November 2008, based on the typology proposed by the World Bank (2008) according to the nation's macroeconomic position and vulnerability to shocks, Armenia, being classified as a country with high external and fiscal deficit [18, pp.3-5, 21], had to rely on an "access to large and stable external official financing" not to be under "significant pressure to undertake both fiscal and external adjustment" [18, p.5]. In Armenia, the government tax revenue declined by about 14% y/y in 200913, the external public debt increased by 1.39 billion USD (88.1% increase over 2008)14, thus allowing the government to increase spending on social protection, public healthcare and education, construction of apart-
6 Source: NSS, Foreign Account, Balance of Payments 6 Online Database (http://www.armstat.am/en/?nid=443, last accessed: 05/07/2015).
7 Source: NSS, "Expenditure of GDP (by main consumption elements)" online database of National Accounts (http:// www.armstat.am/en/?nid=263, last accessed: 05/05/2015).
8 Source: NSS, ArmStatBank, Employment and unemployment online databases of Population and Social processes section (http://www.armstatbank.am/, last accessed: 05/07/2015).
9 See footnote 7.
10 However, the rise in global demand and other external shocks that result in increase in commodity prices could raise the prices of domestically produced goods and services, and the revenues of commodity exporters could rise.
11 See Footnote 7.
12 Source: NSS, Foreign Account, Balance of Payments 6 Online Database (http://www.armstat.am/en/?nid=443, last accessed: 05/07/2015).
13 Source: The Ministry of Finance of Armenia, Online Database of Macroeconomic Indicators (The indicators of state budget of the Republic of Armenia), available at: http://www.minfin.am/index.php?cat=69&lang=3, last accessed: 09/28/2014.
14 Source: NSS, Government Finance Statistics, Central Government Debt Online Database, available at: http:// www.armstat.am/en/?nid=385, last accessed: 09/29/2014.
15 Source: NSS, Finance Statistics of Armenia, 2014, Government Finance, available at http://www.armstat.am/file/ article/ finansner_14_1.pdf, last accessed: 07/05/2015.
МАКАРЯН А.Р.
СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ВНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМИ ФАКТОРАМИ И РЕАЛЬНЫМ СЕКТОРОМ ЭКОНОМИКИ СТРАН С НИЗКИМ УРОВНЕМ ДОХОДА __И АРМЕНИИ И ЕЕ УЯЗВИМОСТЬ _
ments, and etc. to mitigates the negative impact of the crisis15. Some of LICs that heavily rely on the official development assistance and/or foreign aid to alleviate the social conditions and ensure budget spending, and implement required stability programs or reforms would be vulnerable to the economic decline mostly in advanced nations and the decision of respective donors (including international donor organizations). In 2009, Armenia's net official development assistance and official aid received increased by 223.3 million USD over 2008, amounting to about 526 million USD16.
Decline in domestic demand causes decline in imports of goods and services, thus resulting in current account reversal, if in a LIC, changes in imports of goods and services exceeds the respective changes in the exports of goods and services (with primary and secondary income account not being severely hit by external shocks), and this would positively affect the net exports. In 2009, the real decline of Armenia's exports and imports of goods and services was respectively 10.4% and 19.2%
y/y17.
Economic downturn in EM leader economies and advanced nations may affect the borrowing by the local commercial banks (loans provided by international financial organizations as part of multilateral or bilateral agreements, or other financial intermediaries, and etc.), thus causing decline in loans provided to the residents. As Gardo and Reiner (2010) state "continued sound capitalization levels and the commitment of parent banks to keep the capitalization of subsidiaries at sound levels are therefore important to support a high overall degree of banking sector stability" [17, p.33]. Increase of international interest rates, decline in borrowing by the local commercial banks negatively affect the real sector of economy through the banking sector. The negative development in the real sector of economy could have negative impact on the banking sector, thus entailing rise in the number of non-performing loans. The banks make the requirements for loans stricter, hence slowing the recovery of economy. In Armenia, bank non-performing loans to total gross loans reported slight increase in 2009 by 0.6p.p. over 2008 comprising 4.86%18, the loans of commercial banks to the households declined by 7.4%, while the loans to private companies increased by 37%19. The impact of the banking sector of Armenia on the real sector of economy was marginal in 2009.
In 2011-2014, the economic growth in Armenia was fueled by the increase in lending (in foreign exchange, mainly in US dollars) to the private companies and households provided by commercial banks, thus making Armenian financial sector vulnerable to the developments in the real sector of Armenia, due to possible currency crisis to be reported over the short-run and medium-term, thus resulting in credit crunch, stricter bank loan requirements, and in the worst scenario banking crisis could be reported that would seriously hit the real sector of economy as well. Total loans of banking system to GDP ratio reached 48.4% in 2014, while in 2011 the ratio was 33.6%20. Over the same period, bank non-performing loans to total gross loans reported an increase in 2014, and comprised approximately 7%, while the same ratio in 2011 was accounting for 3.4%21.
Therefore, the process of transmission of external shocks to the real sector of economy Armenia could be described based on a conceptual framework proposed by us (see figure 2). The negative developments in Russia could affect the Armenian economy via income and/or recession effect, regardless the fact that the global economy could report a decline or not, thus highlighting the growing level of integration of Armenia with Russia that would deepen upon Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union.
16 Source: See footnote 1.
17 Source: See footnote 7.
18 Source: See footnote 1.
19 Source: Central Bank of Armenia, Commercial Banks Loans by Sectors (monthly) On-line database (https://www.cba.am/ en/sitepages/statmonetaryfinancial.aspx last accessed: May 8, 2015). Author's own calculations.
20 Central Bank of Armenia, Statistics of financial organizations., Total assets of banking system/GDP/total loans of banking system/GDP online database (https://www.cba.am/en/sitepages/statfinorg.aspx):
21 Source: See footnote 1.
22 Source: Anna Makaryan, 2015.
Figure 2. Transmission of external shocks to the real sector of economy Armenia 22
Overall, the recovery of economy from the downturn largely depends on the speed of recovery of the domestic demand taking into account decline in external demand for locally produced goods and services, decrease in remittances, and the developments in the banking sector. In these circumstances the discretionary fiscal policy to be implemented by the government plays a crucial role in mitigating the negative impact of a crisis, if a LIC lacks an advanced system of automatic stabilizers.
Литература
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МАКАРЯН А.Р.
СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ВНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМИ ФАКТОРАМИ И РЕАЛЬНЫМ СЕКТОРОМ ЭКОНОМИКИ СТРАН С НИЗКИМ УРОВНЕМ ДОХОДА __И АРМЕНИИ И ЕЕ УЯЗВИМОСТЬ _
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