CC BY
107
THE PROBLEM OF ENERGY SECURITY IN POLITICS OF KAZAKHSTAN
Abildayev A.
L. Gumilyov Eurasian National University a.almaz1976@gmail.com
The article reviews the problems of energy security of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the features of the current state of the energy industry of the republic are revealed. The author's conclusion is that without strengthening energy security, the successful implementation of the country's modernization is impossible.
Key words: energy resources, energy security, fuel and energy complex, energy efficiency, energy policy of Kazakhstan.
В данной статье рассматриваются проблемы энергетической безопасности Республики Казахстан, выявлены особенности современного состояния энергетической отрасли республики. Автор делает вывод, что без укрепления энергетической безопасности невозможно успешное осуществление модернизации страны.
Ключевые слова: энергоресурсы, энергетическая безопасность, топливно - энергетический комплекс, энергоэффективность, энергетическая политика Казахстана.
For Kazakhstan, the issue of energy security is a matter of strategic importance, which is reflected in a number of important documents concerning the domestic and foreign policy priorities for the long-term development of the republic. Among the goals for implementing the priorities of Kazakhstan's foreign economic policy, it is stated that the country "will continue to contribute to regional and global energy security; advocates the achievement of a balance between the interests of producing countries, transit countries and countries - consumers of energy resources, the creation of a system of diversified, stable and safe routes for their exports. "In "2050- Strategy " is recommended in the interest of security and the future of the nation, the creation of a "strategic reserve" of hydrocarbon raw materials as a basis for energy security of the Republic of Kazakhstan [1].
Energy security has become an important component of the national security system of the Republic of Kazakhstan, being an indispensable element of economic security, which according to the legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan is interpreted as "a state of protection of the national economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan against real and potential threats, which ensures its sustainable development and economic independence" [2]
Kazakhstan is developing dynamically as an exporter of energy resources, and the priority for the country is to create a stable and differentiated market for energy resources, to ensure diversification of export routes for its products.
The energy sector of Kazakhstan plays the most significant role in the country's economy. It can be stated, that the republic is successfully developing in many respects thanks to the export of energy.
Today, the state of Kazakhstan's economy and its position in the world is largely determined by its export potential and available energy resources. The Republic of Kazakhstan essentially possesses one of the largest potentials in the world of fuel and energy resources.
As of at the end of 2015, proven oil reserves in Kazakhstan are estimated in 30 billion barrels. According to this indicator, the country occupies the 12th place in the world. There are more than 200 oil fields in Kazakhstan. Forecast reserves are estimated by experts at 11-12 billion tons, most of which lies in the bowels of the three largest deposits: Tengiz (5-6 billion tons), Karachaganak (1.2 billion tons) and shelfy Kashagan (3 billion tons) [3].
If in 1992 Kazakhstan had been produced 530 thousand barrels per day, the production of crude oil in Kazakhstan in October 2015 reached 1595 barrels per day. In 2017 oil production in Kazakhstan was 86.2 million tons, compared with 78 million tons in 2016. The volume of oil exports in 2017 amounted to 96.8 million tons, which shows growth by 2016 by 12.4% [4].
In terms of gas reserves, Kazakhstan ranks 22nd in the world and 3rd in the CIS after Russia and Turkmenistan. At the same time, geological resources on the Caspian shelf reach -7 trillion cubic meters, and recoverable reserves - 3.9 trillion. cubic meters. In 2015, the country managed to extract 45.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas, among them 12.7 billion cubic meters - for export [5].
At present, Kazakhstan ranks second in the world on the explored reserves of natural uranium. About 12% of all the world's proven reserves are concentrated in the bowels of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Total explored reserves of the country are estimated at more than 900 thousand tons of uranium. Kazakhstan joined the ranks of leading uranium producers after the Canadian Cameco and the French Areva with its 40% of the world's uranium production in 2014 [6]. Kazakhstani uranium is widely exported to all countries with developed nuclear power from Russia, the EU, the USA, including other Asian countries (China, Japan, South Korea, India).
Kazakhstan possess 27.5 trillion cubic feet of shale gas reserves (3% of the world's reserves) and 11 billion barrels of oil in low-permeability reservoirs, and is in the eighth place in the world for proven coal reserves (4% of world reserves) [7].
In general, the country's energy complex is an essential part of the global energy market. Kazakhstan actively manifests itself in the international trade in energy resources. The Republic has logically blended into the world's oil architecture, several times increasing the extraction of oil, gas condensate and natural gas. Along with the
general strategy, the State Program for the Development of the Kazakh Sector of the Caspian Sea, the Program for the Development of the Gas Industry, the optimal network of oil and gas arteries, the domestic refining and petrochemical industry were modernized [8, p.9].
The natural fuel-energy potential of the republic is the foundation of social and economic development. Ensuring the economic security of the country to a large extent depends on the efficiency of the fuel-energy complex activity.
The system of the implementation of Kazakhstan's energy security is regulated by the laws of the Republic of Kazakhstan, decrees of the President, resolutions, strategies and concepts. It is important to note that the relevant goals and objectives providing for structural changes in the FEC are defined in the Concept for the development of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2030, developed by the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The concept of development of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2030 links the development of the oil and gas, coal, nuclear and electric power industries to a single whole, taking into account the world's best practices and the latest trends in the development of world energy [9].
Activities in the oil and gas industry (and other extractive industries) are regulated by the Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan "On Subsoil and Subsoil Use". One of the goals of the adoption of this law was the unification of national legislation with the world standards of OECD countries. Among the main innovations can be noted the introduction of incentives for private investment in geological study of subsurface resources and geological exploration, ensuring predictability and stability of regulation and removing administrative barriers.
Kazakhstan as one of the largest exporters of energy resources plays a big role in the balance of regional economic and political forces. It is worth emphasizing that Kazakhstan adheres to the multi-vector principle in both foreign policy and foreign economic relations, seeking to diversify not only the sources of investment in exploration and production projects, but also the construction of pipelines, and energy export markets.
In particular, the economic complementarity of Kazakhstan with China (Kazakhstan is a major producer, China is a large consumer) and, of course, last but not least, the geographical factor (an extended common border) has led to a logical alternative to exports.
Along the China-Kazakhstan Atasu-Alashankou pipeline, about 12 million tons of oil is currently supplied from Kazakhstan to China, and its planned expansion to the west to the fields in western Kazakhstan will allow a rather rapid increase in annual exports to the level of the current capacity of the pipeline, which is 20 million tons per year.
It should be emphasized that the objectives of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the field of ensuring energy security are also 3Km,crRrnTn domestic and external demand
for energy resources, the ability to meet the needs of the national economy in energy resources, the efficient and w^MrnTn use of energy resources, the formation of the sustainability of the fuel and energy complex to negative internal and external factors that can affect the national security of the state.
To achieve these goals, Kazakhstan's effective foreign economic policy and the development of economic ties with partner countries are called for. It should be mentioned that Kazakhstan has to find trade-offs and ways of development in conditions of growing competition at the regional and global levels.
In a modern competitive environment, the scientific choice of optimal energy development paths, taking into account the efficient use of energy resources, is of particular importance. The theoretical basis for justifying the long-term energy development strategy of Kazakhstan (until 2030 and 2050) during the globalization of energy markets could be an assessment of the world energy scenarios.
The priorities of the Kazakhstani energy strategy are energy security, meeting the needs of the domestic economy, economic feasibility, minimizing the technogenic impact of energy on the environment.
According to the State Program of Industrial and Innovative Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2015-2019, the Ministry of Energy sets clear objectives for priority sectors.
In particular, in "The Oil Refining" sector, the goal is to maximize the realization of Kazakhstan's resource potential in order to provide the domestic market with quality products of oil refining, gas processing and oil and gas chemistry, as well as export development, and "The petrochemical industry" sector is tasked with supplying projects with base production of the necessary raw materials on a competitive basis, expanding markets for the sale of non-primary goods, transport and logistics support for the export of oil and gas chemical productions and others [10].
World Bank experts note that the republic's economy is highly dependent on oil, while oil and gas revenues account for two-thirds of total exports and a third of tax revenues. This circumstance may mean that the problems in the energy sector will have a significant impact on ensuring the economic security of the country. At the moment, in addition to a noticeable decline in global energy prices, energy security risks, insufficient investment in the industry, and deterioration of the main production assets of energy companies can be cited as a risk for energy security.
As the well-known analyst D. Yergin points out, at the present stage, countries will have to compete actively for attracting existing investments. In this regard, it is expected that the host countries will be more flexible in terms of financial conditions and local content requirements [11].
Among the problems, it can also be indicated that the energy system of the Republic of Kazakhstan is part of the Central Asian energy system, which was designed as an integrated system with seasonal exchange. After the collapse of the
Soviet Union in this regional system, there were problems of inefficient use of resources, inability to meet the demand for energy during the year.
Disruptions in energy supply are exacerbated by high losses throughout the supply chain.
An important challenge for the Republic of Kazakhstan is also the diversification of energy resources. Kazakhstan will continue to adhere to the position of diversifying the ways of transporting hydrocarbons to the world market and maximizing the effective operation of pipeline systems.
There are problems of energy efficiency. It should be noted that Kazakhstan is one of the most energy-intensive and carbon-intensive countries in the world. The ratio of carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion per unit of GDP at purchasing power parity is 1.3, compared with the world average carbon dioxide emissions of 0.44 kg per US dollar (IEA, 2012).
Despite the efforts of the government, Kazakhstan remains among the countries with high rates of associated petroleum gas combustion, which largely contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. And, of course, it is impossible not to stress the low environmental friendliness of the technologies used in the technologies of FEC.
Nevertheless, the potential for saving energy is large, both in the energy and in the industrial sectors. In addition to the main opportunities to increase efficiency, Kazakhstan has the potential to produce renewable energy sources in wind energy.
Under the current conditions, there are risks of a political nature. In particular, this is the instability of world energy markets due to the political situation in the oil-producing countries of the Middle East, the threat of transit supplies of hydrocarbons through individual states, the dependence of the energy sector on existing consumers (it is necessary to expand the geography of hydrocarbon supplies for the development of the Asian market).
The Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan "On Energy Saving and Energy Efficiency Enhancement", signed on January 13, 2012 by the President of Kazakhstan, was to become instrument of energy saving policy implementation. This Law was aimed at creating a clear legal framework in the field of energy conservation, as well as the formation of a national energy saving infrastructure to ensure the transition of the economy to energy-efficient development. However, at the present time it can be argued that so long as energy-saving factors determined by law have not become a reality [12].
Kazakhstan makes a separate contribution to the global security problems, solving the tasks of reforming the national fuel and energy complex, as well as developed cooperation both bilaterally and multilaterally with a wide range of states.
Particularly, in the Concept for the Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the following task is singled out: "Strengthening of geopolitical influence in the region by meeting the growth of energy
consumption in the economies of the region," meaning assistance to neighboring countries in the energy area[13].
It is necessary to highlight that at the present stage energy security is of great importance for the national security system of the Republic of Kazakhstan, becoming a definite guarantor of competitiveness in world markets. Today, without the strengthening of energy security, the successful implementation of the country's modernization is impossible.
In 2013, Kazakhstan ranked 58 out of 129 on the energy sustainability index, which is assigned based on a comparative analysis of the energy situation in the country. Kazakhstan has improved the country's energy security indicators by reducing accidents, losses, compliance with the norms of various electricity indicators. Kazakhstan took 58th place among 129 countries of the world in terms of the energy sustainability index, according to the report of the World Energy Congress [14].
The definition of energy sustainability by the World Energy Council is based on three main aspects: energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability. Balancing these three goals is a "trillium" and is the basis for the prosperity and competitiveness of individual countries.
However, in 2016 Kazakhstan ranks 82nd in this rating, and then, according to 2017, rose to 78th place. According to the experts of the World Energy Council, positive changes occurred due to the policy of Kazakhstan.
They include: strengthening state institutions, responsible for energy efficiency in production, production and consumption of energy; clear and comprehensive energy conservation programs to reduce the energy intensity of industry (a 25% reduction by 2020 compared to 2008); adoption of policies to support the elaboration and development of renewable energy sources (renewable and alternative sources by 2050 should provide 50% of the country's electricity); as well as plans and programs to support the modernization of existing power plants, electrical networks and oil-refining.
The energy trilemma index of 2017 shows signs of progress in all dimensions of the energy trilemma. It is based on the factors of energy security, the availability of electricity for the population and the environmental friendliness of the energy sector.
It should be noted that Kazakhstan in its foreign policy priorities proceeds from the concept of multi-vector, when no one country is preferred. It can be argued that the country is trying to adhere to a multi-vector policy and in the field of energy. Since gaining independence, the country has succeeded in attracting foreign direct investment through the establishment of joint ventures, the signing of production sharing agreements, as well as other benefits and privileges in attempts to reanimate its energy sector.
It is worth adding that these actions were carried out with different players while observing the most complicated rules of the geopolitical game. In the 2000s, the energy policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan underwent a serious transformation.
Kazakhstan tried to gain more control over its resources, oil and gas industry, as well as export routes. Not surprisingly, some of the innovations in this area, as well as the reforms that were carried out, somewhat alienated Western countries, limiting the activities of international corporations in the country. However, such measures, on the contrary, contributed to China's greater penetration to the Kazakhstani market.
Based on the foregoing, it can be summarized that the energy security of the state today is not so much an economic category as a political one, defining the national interests of the country, constituting a significant segment of national security.
The energy factor is today a significant factor in geopolitical interaction with other states. It can be used as an instrument for upholding national interests in the foreign policy arena.
On the whole, in the 21st century the energy complex of Kazakhstan can become a factor of economic, social, political stability and security in the region.
References
1. Address by the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Leader of the Nation, N.Nazarbayev "Strategy Kazakhstan-2050": new political course of the established state" // http://www. akorda.kz/ru/events/astana_kazakhstan/
2. On National Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan of January 6, 2012 No. 527-IV. // http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/Z1200000527
3.Kazakhstan is increasing the export of oil.// https://news . rambler . ru/business/37708543/?
utm_content=rnews&utm_medium=read_more&utm_source=copylink
4.Kazakhstan intends to increase oil production //
https://www.trend.az/business/energy/2865011.html
5.Nurtazin A. Gazuy, strana! March, 18, 2016 // http://www.time.kz/articles/zloba/2016/03/18/
6.Site of the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan http://energo.gov.kz/index.php?id=3744
7.Zapugannyj neftyanoj rynok //ey25.kapital.kz/economic/46407/zapugannyj-ne ftyanoj-rynok. html
8. Oil and gas of independent Kazakhstan. Astana, 2017. - 352 p.
9. On approval of the Concept for the development of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2030 // http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P1400000724
10.The state program of industrial-innovative development of Kazakhstan for 2015-2019 //http://energo.gov.kz/index.php?id=3878
11. The National Energy Report// file:///C:/Users/Acer/Desktop/новенmаa/нацнонапbннн%20энергетннескнн %20flOKnaa .pdf
12. The Republic of Kazakhstan "On Energy Saving and Energy Efficiency" (13 January 2012) the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan № 541-IV. // http ://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/Z1200000541
13. On the approval of The Concept of development of the fuel and energy complex of Kazakhstan until 2030. The Government of Kazakhstan (decree No. 724 dated 28 June 2014) // http://www.cawater-info.net/library/rus/kaz-724-2014.pdf
14. The World Energy Council // https://www.powerexpo.kz/ru/press-tsentr/novosti/79-12-12-2013wec
