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THE POSSIBLE ACTIONS DIRECTED TO DECREASE IN RISKS AND ADAPTATION OF THE POPULATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
CONSEQUENCES IN AZERBAIJAN
Hasanov Maharram Samed.
Chief researcher, the doctor of philosophy on geography,docent, Institute of Geography named after H.Aliyev of Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, Baku
Taghiyeva Umayra Rauf
Leading researcher, the doctor of philosophy on geography, Institute of Geography named after H.Aliyev of Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, Baku
Ahmadova Jamila Namet
Researcher,
Institute of Geography named after H.Aliyev of Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, Baku
ABSTRACT
The sensitiveness of people against unfavorable meteorological conditions with increase of continuation and repeating of changes in atmosphere in conditions of global climate changes, anomalous and dangerous hydro meteorological events, as well as "hot air waves" was raised. For that reason provision of population and relevant organizations with medical-meteorological forecasts and warnings may contribute to implementation of preventive measures and softening of possible risks connected with unfavorable air conditions.
Methods and materials: Data of long-term the meteorological observation, statistical data of calls of ambulance in the city of Baku were used. Statistical method, synoptic analysis, comparative analysis.
Keywords: temperature, hot air waves, bio-meteorology, medical-meteorological forecasts, warnings, unfavorable.
Recent years the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends countries to inform population in advance about unfavorable biometeorological conditions in addition to traditional services of hydro meteorological organs, general forecasting and warnings. The urgency of this matter increased further in connection with seditions occurred with modern climatic changes. The people who had weakened organism, complicated diseases as well as suffering from some chronicle diseases (pulmonary organs, cardiovascular, cerebral systems and etc diseases) are more vulnerable to air conditions and its changes. The observations made, analysis of ambulance callings show that the urban population, elders and children have more meteo-vulnerability. The prophylaxis of diseases is most important factor in protection of human health. In this sense providing of medical-meteorological forecasts may contribute in implementation of either treatment-prophylaxis actions or assisting in comfortably adapting the human health to effects of unfavorable factors by warning the population beforehand. Medical-meteorological forecasts data help people to plan their works correctly in unfavorable climatic types, selecting right ways (suitable work regime, reducing physical load, right feeding, selection of cloth according to conditions) of behavior to reduce the negative affects, carrying out preventive actions in due time. At conditions of modern climatic changes the cooperation of meteorologists and physicians remains one of the priority areas in development of medical meteorology. Either atmosphere or human organism is very complex system. Famous mathematician Van Newman noted that the human being is most complex system, for complexity the atmosphere comes after it. To describe human organism and atmosphere by having observation, measuring and calculation on some parameters is impossible. As the human body temperature or arterial blood pressure cannot give full information on condition of organism, the air temperature or humidity indicator cannot describe in full all processes incurring in atmosphere.
The numerous studies carried out in bio-meteorology field show that the atmospheric processes have impact on
human health. It is to be noted that the researches in this field are purposeful to carry out in view of local regional climatic features, pre-determined specific illnesses and vulnerable groups (children, elders, those suffering from chronicle diseases etc). Given the growing interest of population and medical personnel to this field in the conditions of current climatic changes, as well as to help meteovulnerable people (people being vulnerable to changes of air conditions) the necessity to work out the recommendation for preparation of medical-meteorological forecasts was arisen. The results of long term scientific researches conducted at the Institute of Geography of the Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan were used widely in preparation of this recommendation. The present recommendation is made for meteo vulnerable people living in Baku city and Apsheron peninsula, where the majority of population of republic lives and for usage at preparation of medical-meteorological forecasts within the addressed specialized hydro meteorological service
type.
At anomalous hot summer days to stay for longer time under the sun in open air may cause sun stroke and hot stroke and complication of some diseases. The conducted researches show that the increase in number of anomalous hot days and its continuation in summer months is observed [1]. Thus, during 1961-1990 the number of days with temperature of 350C and over was in average 3 days, but during 2001-2010 years, noted as the hottest decade during all instrumental observations by the World Meteorological Organization the number of such days in Baku city increased more than 5 times and reached 16 [2]. As the number of days with temperature of 350 C and higher is more, the number of calls for ambulance and number of those addressed with sun stroke diagnosis increases, too (pic. 1). At impact of tropic air masses irrespective of season of year the temperature rises, the maximum air temperature in winter may reach 20-250C, in summer 400C. The Central Asian maximum increases further the humidity in summer months at background of high temperature in hot weather conditions, in Apsheron peninsula together with eastern, south-eastern flows, especially
in morning and evening hours, causes stuffiness. In come cases gradient atmospheric pressure causes stagnancy in air, the it leads to dust fog. In summer months the dominance of low continuation of "hot air waves" and repetition becomes more.
Pic. 1. The number of days with daily temperature of 350 C and higher and the number of calls for ambulance for sun stroke in Baku city.
The people always are subjected to impact of various meteorological factors. The genetic adaptation of human organism to atmospheric status may cause changes of many physiological functions. The results of researches conducted in this area to be adapted either to short term or long term changes the additional resistance is required from human organism. The most authors evaluate the meteotropic reactions as dysadaption. In most meteo vulnerable people displays itself in worsening of general mood, insomnia, feeling of anxiety, headaches, lowering of workability, fatigue, acute changes of blood pressure, heart pains and etc. Meteotropic reactions usually occur simultaneously of change of meteorological conditions or little earlier of process. The complex researches conducted on biometeorology and bioclimatic studies show that the factors that directly affect the human health like air temperature, atmospheric pressure, air humidity, wind speed and direction have a particular role [5, 7, 11]. Therefore based on some research works conducted in direction of study of impact of bioclimate, bio ecological conditions on human the selection of following of basic meteorological factors depending on synoptic conditions for preparation of medical-meteorological forecasts is advised: air temperature, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind direction and speed, amount of oxygen in air, cloudiness. The air temperature is considered as most important among the mentioned meteopathic factors. Changing of heat regime leads to change of heat exchange of human organism with environment. Human being is impacted exact temperature change along with sharp changes of temperature. Impact of air temperature on human organism is much dependable on
air humidity. For example, is the humidity is high during hot days, the heat effect becomes sharp, too. The same temperature has different impact on human organism. Despite a human being adapted to live in quite various humidity range but the temperature interval in which he/she fees self comfortable is small. The comfortable temperature conception is different for geographical location, altitude, current climatic conditions and even for separate individuals [6, 8]. The researches show that for hot period of year the comfortable condition on Apsheron peninsula may be accepted as air temperature 24-280C, relative humidity as 40-450C. Biological reactions may be dependent on cloudiness. The gloomy or rainy weather, which dominates for long period may have a negative affect on human mood. But some biometeorological studies show that the rains have a positive impact on human, too. The human organism is also vulnerable to atmospheric pressure. The significant changes of atmospheric pressure within inter-daily and within day have impact on people with weak cardio-vascular system, it causes weakness, make the disease more acute. Therefore while preparing medical-meteorological forecasts, first of all, the fluctuations of atmospheric pressure at strong and acute limits should be taken into account. The researches show that at 60% of sharp fall of pressure in Apsheron peninsula the calls of ambulances increased. In general, Apsheron peninsula for acuteness of daily change difference of atmospheric pressure occupies a special place. Bio-climatic experts (P.G. Mezertitsky and others) evaluates inter-daily atmospheric pressure as acute if fluctuations is over 8 mm, as strong if it is 5,1-8 mm, mild if 3,1-5 mm, weak if 1,1-3 mm [12]. The impact of wind on human
body is various. In winter season at windy weather cold effect is strengthened further, the resistance of human organism reduces, at result of strong wind the breathing becomes difficult. Azerbaijani scientists studied the impact of local winds khazri (north, northwest) and gilavar (south and south- west) on human organism. [4, 10]. Synoptic condition impact the amount of oxygen, which has exclusive importance in chemical structure of air, especially in all live processes. Based on numerous researches human organism's oxygen provision has close relations with synoptic meteorological conditions. It was defined that the sharp change of oxygen in air is accompanied with weakening of organism, insomnia, head ache and other complications [5, 7]. In summer months high temperature of air and in some cases high humidity further complicate the situation. As the atmospheric processes are non-linear processes the links between two very complex systems in biometeorlogical studies atmosphere and human organism are non-linear, too. Therefore the approaches to this problem should be wider, covered, interfiled and complex.
Medical-meteorological typification of air depending on complex of synoptic conditions and meteorological factors: Weather conditions are not reasons, but it pushes for acute meteotropic reactions, as meteotrophy is one of the features of human body. In current practice the base of medical-meteorological forecast comprise two leading factors which are defined by them as metereological factors. From point of view of reaction of organisms, in general cyclones are considered as unfavorable, anti-cyclones as mainly favorable. But meteortropy depends on individual pathologic, local climate factors, as well as seasons of year. For forecasting of weather conditions for medical purposes in Apsheron peninsula and Baku city A.Ayyubov had defined the medical-meteorological forecasting signs had identified five meteopathic effect steps on cardio-vascular diseases: safe, indifferent, less risky, risky, sharp risky [12]. The classification scale, which specifies the biometeorological forecasting signs on cardio-vascular diseases offered in present method manual was improved based on new researches for preparation of medical-meteorological forecasts. The steps were identified based on meteorological factors of healthy and ill persons, their stable conditions and reactions to sharp changes. Each meteopatic effect step correspondents to certain air type. Although the base of classification is meteopatic
effect steps, it is possible that instead of meteopatic effect steps are given in the form of relevant medical types as synoptic situations and meteorological conditions are evaluated as pathologic effect factors. For preparation of medical meteorological forecasts during the working on methodic manual based on bio meteorological classification developed by some researchers like I.I.Grigoryev, I.G.Paramonov, A.J.Eyyubov [13, 3], and in view of "acceleration" of changes occurring in climate for last 15-20 years the following medical-meteorological typification was carried out: I weather type - favorable, II weather type -mainly favorable, III weather type - relatively unfavorable, IV weather type - unfavorable, V weather type - risky.
Forecasting particularly unfavorable and risky cases is important, it may help meteo vulnerable people to plan their important works and in other cases, to help physicians for prescriptions to increase the resistance of organism to diseases, etc. Above-mentioned typification may not reflect in self the all available weather types, safe or risky situations. Inter-type differences connected with atmospheric changes are to be paid a special attention. Thus, during application of offered typification the seasons of year, concrete synoptic situation dynamic, the duration of effect of baric area on certain territory should be taken into account, too. For example, the north wind with speed of 15-19 m/ps, which is considered as relatively unfavorable, may be evaluated as positive factor after continuous north wind.
I TYPE - FAVORABLE; One of the features of favorable weather type is weak fluctuations of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity in general not depending on seasons within climate norm, and it may be estimated as a favorable factor. In favorable weather type atmospheric fronts are not observed. But in these cases the direction of wind and its speed ate to be taken into account. As usual, favorable weather conditions are defined by less gradient high pressure area rich with oxygen after anticyclone, cold intervention. The normal daily course of basic meteorological factors is observed. Mainly weak and mild winds with north, north-western direction blow (Tab. 1).
II WEATHER TYPE - MAINLY FAVORABLE; Although its synoptic and meteorological description is close to 1st type, this type has transitional feature in unfavorable weather conditions. Usually during 2nd type the weather condition is
Table 1.
Medical-meteorological typification of weather condition depending on atmospheric processes and complex of meteorological
factors
Synoptic conditions and meteorological indicators Weather types
I weather type -favorable: II weather type -mainly favorable III weather type - relatively unfavorable: IV weather type -unfavorable V weather type -risky
Synoptic situation High, relative high atmospheric pressure area, anticyclone Less gradient relative high or relative law baric area (non continuous in summer ) Weak cyclone activity, depression, anticyclone crest (Azores, Scandinavia, Siberia), south -western part of Kazakhstan anticyclone Active cyclone and deep depression, active intervention of anticyclone (Azores, Scandinavia, Siberia ), south -western part of Kazakhstan anticyclone, frontal part of cyclone in summer or less gradient pressure area Very active cyclone, deep depression, sharp intervention of Anti cyclone crest (Azores, Scandinavia, Siberia), south -western part of Kazakhstan anticyclone, frontal part of cyclone in summer or less gradient pressure area
Atmospheric fronts Nil Nil Weak Significantly remarkable Sharp remarkable
Daily course of meteorological factors Normal, stagnant Less fluctuates Significantly remarkable changes More remarkable change, violation of normal course Sharp sudden change
Fluctuations of atmospheric pressure Up to 3 mb daily Up to 3 mb daily 4-7 mb daily Sharp during day or half day, 8-10 mb 8-10 mb during day or half day and more
Temperature regime of weather Climate within norm Close to climate with less positive and negative difference Significantly variance from climatic norm Significantly variance from climatic norm, strong heat and frosts Sharp variance from climatic norms, sharp heats, continuous anomalous heats (hot waves) and strong continuous frosts
O2 amount Partly stable Less fluctuation More than 3g/m3 change More than 5-10 g/ m3 change More than 10 g/m3 change
Wind Weak and mild wind Weak and mild wind Mild and sometimes strong wind (mainly gilavar ) Strong wind and pre-Khazri wind Strong and harsh wind, pre-Khazri wind
Atmospheric events Dangerous events are not observed Dangerous events are not observed Dangerous atmospheric events are not observed Dangerous atmospheric event may be observed, lightening, heavy rain, storm, snowstorm Dangerous atmospheric event may be observed, strong lightening, heavy rain, storm, snow-storm, dust storm
defined by less gradient relative high or relative low baric area. The atmospheric fronts are not observed. Air temperature and atmospheric pressure fluctuates close to less negative or positive difference climate norms. Depending on season of year (especially in summer months) while evaluating the weather conditions the wind direction and aid humidity is to be taken into account along with continuation of synoptic process.
III WEATHER TYPE - RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE; in
this type of weather mainly weak cyclone activity, depression, anticyclone crest (Azores, Scandinavian, Siberia anticyclones). South-western part of Kazakhstan anticyclone is observed. Weak front activities may be observed. In relatively unfavorable weather depending on season there may be wind that intensifies sometimes or weak windy, stagnant weather. At that the atmospheric pressure is up to 4-7 mb daily, the amount of oxygen in air may change over 3 g/m3, temperature regime may
vary significantly from climatic norms.
IV WEATHER TYPE - FAVORABLE: Unfavorable weather type is mainly characterized by active cyclone and deep depression, active intervention of anticyclone crest (Azores, Scandinavian, Siberia anticyclone), south-western part of Kazakhstan anti-cyclone. In some cases the passage of remarkable atmospheric fronts is observed. Sharp change of atmospheric pressure daily, in some cases in half day up to 8-10 mb, significant variance of air temperature from climatic norm, strong hot or frosts, change of oxygen amount up to 5-10 g/m3 are unfavorable conditions. In this weather type the wind direction and speed is assessed in view of season of year. Based on researches carried out in bio meteorology area in Azerbaijan the pre-gilavar and khazri weather is unfavorable condition for meteo vulnerable people, particularly for those suffering of diseases of cardio-vascular system.
V WEATHER TYPE - RISKY: The risky weather type is defined by very active cyclone, deep depression, sharp intervention of anticyclone crest (Azores, Scandinavia, Siberia anticyclone), south-western part of Kazakhstan anticyclone, depending on season. In many cases the active front a activity is
characterized with anomalous hot weather. At that the "hot air wave" was observed in Apsheron peninsula. From Aug 16 to 20 the continues sharp heat (hot air waves) were observed in Baku city and Apsheron peninsula, the maximum air temperature was 35-390C in Baku and Apsheron, the highest temperature was recorded in Mashtaga on 19 (40,10C). Such high temperatures were accompanied with weak wind and dominance of south, south-eastern winds in air lead to rise of humidity in air, formation of stuffy air in certain hours of day. According to information of Baku city Ambulance Service at those risky days in total 12 sunstroke cases were noted.
In medical-meteorological forecasts made in the table form the expected changes and atmospheric events are shown quantity of below given meteorological factors: the nature of wind (khazri or gilavar blowing, wind speed); change of atmospheric pressure in 12 and 24 hours, in mb; nature of baric trend; inter daily change of air temperature, in C; cloudiness; relative humidity of air; amount of oxygen; precipitation and
seen. Sharp change of atmospheric pressure daily or in half day (by 8-10 mb), sharp variance of air temperature from climatic norm, continuous sharp heat or frost, change of oxygen amount over 10 g/m3, strong and harsh winds, weak wind in hot period of year or wind with speed of 1-2 m/ps, stuffy air at result of relative humidity in conditions of stagnant weather conditions at the background of high temperature and other such factors are considered particularly unfavorable for population, risky for meteo vulnerable people.
Analysis of synoptic process and meteorological conditions which classify the weather type from viewpoint of medical-meteorological forecasts in the sample of August of 2014. Although in separate days of 1st decade of August month the temperature over norm is recorded, but these heat were not continuous. As seen from picture 2 at those days sun stroke was once per day in 2 separate days (pic. 2). Also as the high temperatures observed on 5, 9 and 10 of the month were not continuous, and being accompanied with mild northern wind these days may be evaluated as unfavorable for meteo vulnerable people. But the second half of August month was
atmospheric events (lightening, fog, strong wind, snow-storm, dust storm). In addition to it while preparing the medical-meteorological forecasts it is advised to use various indicators expressing condition of feeling of heat by man. There are many indices showing the comfortableness level of weather condition. Along with positive sides of these bio-meteorological indices they have negative sides, too. One of the indices used widely in bio-meteorological practice is effective temperature. For forecast of comfortableness level the calculation of ET is advised. One of the equations used widely in definition of effective temperature (ET) by analytic way is that offered from Missenard [9]:
ET =t-0.4(t-10) (1-f/100)
Whereas, t- dry temperature, C; f- relative humidity of air, %.
The advantage of the given index as bio-climate indicator is that it may be used both in hot and cold period of year. Using that equation the table was made by calculating of effective temperature based on air temperature and relative humidity, which is characteristic to hot period of year according to long
Pic. 2. The maximum daily temperature of air in Baku city in August of 2014 and number of sun stroke cases.
Table 3.
Additional impact of on heat feeling and organism of man deepening on effective temperature indicator
term meteorological observations for Apsheron peninsula (tab. based on analysis of quantity of meteorological factors shown 2-3). above and based on actual and expected atmospheric processes.
The type of weather is defined from medical viewpoint Medical-meteorological may be made in table and text form.
Table 2.
Effective temperature indicators calculated based on Missenard equation in hot period of year
Relative humidity, % Air temperature, oC
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
70 23.2 24.1 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.6 28.5 29.4 30.2 31.1 32. 33.9 33.8 34.6 35.5 36.4
65 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.5 26.3 27.2 28.1 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.2 34.1 34.9 35.8
60 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.2 31 31.8/ 32.7 33.5 34.4 35.2
55 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.6 26.4 27.3 28.0 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.3 32.1 33.0 33.8 34.6
50 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.4 25.2 26. 26.9 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 30.8 31.6 32.4 33.2 34.0
45 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.7 29.5 30.3 31.1 31.8 32.6 33.4
40 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.4 25.2 26.1 26.7 27.5 28.2 29 28.8 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.8
35 21.3 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.8 25.7 26.3 27.0 27.8 28.5 28.2 30.0 30.7 31.5 32.2
30 21.0 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.3 25.8 26.6 27.3 28 27.7 29.4 30.1 30.9 31.6
Effective temperature (0C) >30 30-24 24-18
Feel feeling Strong heat heat moderate heat
Additional influence on an organism Strong moderate comfort
The changes and atmospheric events expected in quantities of this meteorological factors in medical-meteorological forecasts prepared in table form are shown. If the forecast is given in text form by giving the brief features of expected weather conditions the certain medical-meteorological type of weather is given. Medical-meteorological forecast (MMF) may be made short term (daily) and long term (for next 2-3 days). These forecasts are prepared based on results of operative observations carried out in current hydro meteorological stations, actual and synoptic maps (surface and altitude maps for 24, 36, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours ), meteograms prepared based on various digital models (including by ensemble method ), aerologic information. At that local climatic features are taken into account. When the less gradient baric area is expected, which is observed with weak and mild fluctuations of high pressure area or meteorological factors after intervention of anticyclone and especially cold intervention with normal daily course of meteorological factors the 1st or second weather type is to be forecasted, which is favorable for human health. But when anomalous high temperatures are expected with entry of hot air waves in territory during summer months, such weather type is referred to fourth or fifth weather type. At those days the relative air humidity is to be under special attention. When weak cyclone activity or cyclone depression is expected which is accompanied with sufficient fluctuation of meteorological factors the 3rd weather type may be forecasted. It is advised to forecast fifth weather type at impact of very active cyclone or cyclone depression activity, which is a cause of sharp conflicting changes of weather conditions. While preparing the medical meteorological forecasts the features of local winds for exact territory are to be considered. Local winds as usual have sufficient impact on daily course of meteorological factors. When local Apsheron winds khazri and gilavar are expected
they should be assessed from viewpoint of meteopatic quality of air, its positive and negative sides are to be clarified in each case, the right impact interpretation is to be given.The daily course, possible change of air masses is to be taken into account at forecasting of relative humidity. The first and second air types are classified with normal daily course of relative humidity, and in 3rd type the increase of humidity is noted. And in 4th and 5 th types in some cases fog, fall of continuous rains are observed. In summer months in the background of high temperature on Apsheron peninsula the process of entry humid of air masses from Caspian Sea with eastern direction flows is to be paid a special attention.
Conclusion.When the risky air type is expected the medical-meteorological warnings along with medical -meteorological forecasts should be prepared and these warnings are to be delivered to corresponding bodies, as well as to population through mass media. The service to population and corresponding organizations with medical-meteorological forecasts in the field of hydro meteorology was not so widespread in world practice. Therefore the evaluation work carried out on medical-meteorological forecasts may contribute to quality conduction of forecasts, as well as clarification of forecasts in future, continuation of scientific researches in this field. Medical meteorological forecasts may be used in many areas for medical prophylaxis purposes: In transport field (road, railway, aviation), in enterprises which apply complex and precise technologies, in areas with high psycho-analytical demands to staff; for prophylaxis of meteotrop diseases, preventive measures in medical entities; within hydro-meteorological services rendered to population by newspapers, radio and TV and mass media; in health enterprises for climatic-preventive purposes (sanatoriums, resorts, sport complexes). The information on meteorology
and climate occupies very important place for human health. As weather and climate impacts on daily life on people at condition of changeable atmospheric processes the man should be more careful to own health. In general, the solution of problems of impact of environment on human health and his/ her welfare is a matter of great social significance. Therefore study of connections between atmosphere and human organism, increasing of knowledge with joint efforts of both medical staff and meteorologists serves first of all to increasing their potential for their adaptation to unfavorable weather conditions by informing the population.
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