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Integration is urged to promote significance of social-cultural (civilization's) identity, the type of identity, which is able to ensure national unity of the Russian Federation and to reduce the level of ethnic-political tension in the North-Caucasian region.
"Obozrevatel- Observer", Moscow, 2012, N 7, pp.5-18.
Alexei Malashenko,
D. Sc. (Hist.)
THE NEW PRESIDENT
AND THE "OLD" NORTH CAUCASUS
The problem of the North Caucasus remains a key problem in the policy of the new president of Russia and his administration. Quite often they speak about the need of a complex decision of "the Caucasian question", which supposes that the main question is overcoming of economic and social complications. This direction actually "postpones" the most conflicting political aspect. Meanwhile, the political crisis should be settled not only in parallel with solving economic problems but even slightly beforehand. The previous experience demonstrates that the quality changes in economy will need many years (as an example the constant gloomy indexes of unemployment), while improvement of the political situation theoretically is possible in the near future. Therefore in the text below the attention is devoted almost completely to politics. It is important to raise efficiency of all-Russian institutions in the region to formalize relations with the local republicans and to reduce the significance of the factor of personal relations among politicians at the federal level, including relations of the president with the heads of the republics. As a result, the local elites should gradually break themselves of the habit to think about the informal special status of the North Caucasus within the
framework of the Russian Federation and feel themselves more self-dependent; at the same time, this policy should include the region in the all-country political situation decreasing the level of resentment and grudges against Moscow on the part of the North-Caucasian elites.
The restoration of election of the regions' heads would create in the North Caucasus the political strip holding of power at least in some republics (Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cercessia). The emergence of claimants representing ethnic and clannish groups will be unavoidable. Almost all of them to some extent will apply for Islam, particularly for support from spiritual leaders (who actually for a long time became religious-political figures). And one may be positive that leaving aside the irreconcilable opposition nobody will stake the separatist card. Each rival will assure that he presents optimal propositions for creating the right relations with the Federal Center.
In case of elections Moscow in some or other form will take decision and determine the more trustworthy candidate. At the same time, the situation may arise when the Center has the favorable attitude to two candidates, stressing in this way its trust to local preferences. Finally, the elections, despite possible excesses, are able to consolidate the internal consensus, and the new head of the republic will enjoy legitimacy and authority under favorable conditions for solving complicated problems.
Let us leave aside the question of the plenipotentiary representative of the President in the North Caucasus; it seems that it is worth abolishing the institution of representation in the all-Russian format. As far as the North Caucasus is concerned, in this region neither representative has achieved big results. And he could not secure them: first, the local elites prefer to run a business directly with the Federal Center (they are irritated with the intermediate instance considered by them as a supervisor), and, second, any personal
initiative of the political representative demands approval of the Center. The political representative actually may not either "help" or interfere in the regional processes.
The establishment of efficient control over usage of financial means coming from the federal budget is the political question. For the nearest future, the rate of subsidies to the most republics, particularly to Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, will hardly be reduced. It makes sense to establish directly at the office of the finance minister or the premier one group or some groups to keep under confidential control the spending of money from allocation from the federal budget up to the realization of this sum in the local place.
It is necessary to give greater support to small business in order to prevent its amalgamation by bigger players and to exclude opportunity of creation of regional monopolies headed by local officials. It is worth allocating means for various medium-sized and small targeted projects: creation of enterprises, construction of stadiums, cultural centers, tourist objects, as well as to attract to these projects the private capital with due control over targeted usage of the means. All this demands rather political than economic decisions.
The President is obliged to render assistance in improvement of the education system. At the same time, it is expedient to resume the practice of selection and sending for studies in Russian pedagogical higher education institutions of gifted young people in order to send them for several years without fail to work in local education institutions.
It is significant to improve the quality of teaching the Russian language, and for this sake to raise the payment of teachers and to stimulate the arrival to the region of graduates from Russian pedagogical higher education institutions even if for temporary employment.
The reduction of the instability's level remains the concern of the President for his complete term. It will be also for the period of governing of the further head of the state and for the more distant period of time. Finally, the President should agree that the main problem of the regional security is not created by the criminal structures, the bandits, but by the non-systemic opposition, which enjoys the support of a rather great part of the population. This opposition is not monolithic at all. It contains an extremist wing, which due to some reasons (ideological, religious, personal revenge, connections with criminals or external influence) will continue armed struggle under any circumstances. Thus, the new president should not and will not be able to renounce completely the forceful methods of struggle.
The use of force against extremists and their neutralization should be accompanied by open judicial proceedings and open trials concerning criminals. At the same time, it is necessary to punish severely those, who in the course of investigation of criminal acts resort to tortures, kidnappings and putting to fire the houses belonged to families of fighters. Such measures if bringing success for a short time, finally, result in animosity of the local population and provoke revenge.
A greater and particular attention should be given to "the differently minded" people, who are ready for a dialogue, even if they share radical ideas. The number of the discontented young people is increasing; the number of passive and active supporters of the opposition does not diminish and, probably, even rises. Besides, the mass media reports on the number of fighters differ a lot. It is difficult to appraise the information prepared for the president and for the premier, but the new president should demand that the officials of the law enforcement bodies should give him more exact data not only about participants of the opposition but also about their adherence to
extremists, radicals and "fellow-travellers". Otherwise, it is impossible to set the task clearly: against whom and how to struggle. The important, if only the deciding is the task to stop recruitment of young people to the rows of the opposition, to prevent their radicalization: the people are not borne to become fighters and they become fighters under the influence of circumstances. The attempts "to intercept" the youth from the fighters are being made now, but they are sporadic actions and not coordinated among various structures: the clergy, the officials and the law enforcement officers.
"The interception" of potential fighters remains one of the conditions of normalization of the situation and the outlined process of reconciliation. The need of dialogue with the religious-political opposition was comprehended rather long time ago. In this context, one may recall the Khasavyurt agreement with separatist Chechnya. But at that time it was primarily a political subterfuge of the Kremlin. It is possible to consider to be reconciliation the compromise achieved by Putin in Chechnya, when Akhmat-khaji Kadyrov occupied the post of the administration and further the president of the republic. It was the actual reconciliation with a fraction of fighters creating a kind of precedent.
At present, the question is conciliation between a) the power and the religious-political opposition and b) between traditional Islam and those, who are called Salafites or wahhabites (some terminological differences exist). The official powers comprehend that the internal conciliation, although not attainable in the final form, is the obligatory condition of ensuring stability. The real peace needs mutual compromises, however, at present the power and the loyal to it "traditional clergy" are ready to forgive their opponents only under conditions of their activities' termination.
At present, the process of conciliation often is formal and is made "just for show". Nevertheless, of significance is the fact itself, if it is the initiative of the local authorities. The president should perceive the conciliation process not as a political campaign but as a long process of daily work for the indefinite time. The federal power may itself somehow join this process, keep it under its observance and even interfere, if the reconciliation of the parties in the republics of the North Caucasus is at a deadlock. If the parties succeed to maintain the regime of dialogue and conciliation, in the perspective it may be possible in the future to reconsider also the popular among Russian politicians thesis that "in the Caucasus they respect only the force". In reality, they respect in the Caucasus also wisdom and ability to understand the opponent and to make a compromise.
The needed condition of stabilization of the North Caucasus is the distinct migration policy for Stavropol krai and Krasnodar krai, which would take into account the unavoidable growth of migration, the most conflict raising zones on these territories and would propose to local administrations the recommendations on accommodation of migrants as well as mechanisms for alleviation of inter-ethnic and social tension.
Should this policy not be elaborated for the nearest future, the situation will aggravate over there to the highest degree. At the same time, to work out such policy is a very difficult matter, although also extremely significant for the Russian Federation as a whole.
The strategic task of the president is to prevent "a drift" of the North Caucasus to turn aside from Russia. At present, Russian politicians prefer not to notice the gradual transformation of region into "internal far abroad", and at least a part of the establishment does not thinks that it is necessary to hinder this process.
On their own part, the Caucasian elites regard their republics as a part of Russia and resolutely come forward against separatism, but at the same time they prefer to be guided by "the Caucasian laws", which are based on the clannish, essentially traditional type of society and on the significant role of Islam.
The new president should not simply correct the approach to the North Caucasus (the attempts to make corrections were made not once but failed), but to comprehend it. The ruling power should determine -in which the region it should form its base on the tradition and use traditional laws and rules of social regulation; evidently, this region should remain within the Russian Federation and the framework of the Russian constitution and Russian legislation. The president should also be aware that in the North Caucasus there goes on the process of spreading archaic traditions in society and should formulate his attitude to dissemination of Islam and Shariah in the region.
The federal power should not struggle against Shariah, since here such struggle is doomed to failure. It is necessary de-facto to restore the functioning of the federal legislation on the territory of the region and to start to strengthen the lost confidence in the federal judicial system, which is subject to corruption even more than in Russia as a whole. At the same time, on should not forget that now and in the nearest perspective in the region there will remain traditional law in parallel to the federal law. The existence in parallel of two legal systems in principle is admissible only under condition, when traditional rules do not contradict directly to the federal law.
Russia remains a secular state, and no Russian president will be against it. It should be said that many Muslims are more and more concerned about political activities of the Orthodox Russian Church (ORC). The claims of the ORC for participation in the state affairs and formulation of the national idea cause irritation of the Russian Muslim
community. At the same time, the position of the ORC supposes also for Muslims to follow their own Islamic variant of solving secular problems. In this context, the calls for creation of Islamic state or caliphate in the North Caucasus, where exists the Muslim majority in the population, seem to be understandable and explainable.
At the same time, at present Islam is not simply religion, but it is a political ideology with a clearly expressed element of social protest.
Evidently, it does not cost anything for the new president a priori to refute any Islamic directions spread in the North Caucasus. It would be rather more feasible to display certain tolerance and to direct Muslims of Russia towards the internal Islamic dialogue. It is especially important, as in 2011-2012 the forces declaring adherence to the idea of state building on the basis of Islamic norms and principles come to power in Muslim countries. The North Caucasus is a part of the Muslim world and one may expect emergence on its territory of the same religious-political collisions, which are developing in other parts of the Islamic world. Therefore, the president forming its political direction should take into account the global processes, particularly, the inevitable radicalization of Islam and its extremist displays.
It is worth discussing the problems connected with realization of the Olympic Games in Sochi in 2014. To the mind of the author, the Olympic Games are a kind of "raffle" with the unpredictable (not only sportive) results. Its success will acquire a political characteristic and will show the ability of Russia and personally of its president to ensure security in the less safe place of the country. On the contrary, the destabilization and terrorist act (acts) on the eve of the Games, the more so in the course of their realization, will depreciate all efforts of the Federal Center in the North Caucasian direction and will hit at the authority of Russia.
The prevention of extremist actions shall be realized in the two directions - by political actions and by means of secret services. The latter is outside the author's competence. And one remark may be made: although it is necessary to pay attention to the foreign experience, nevertheless, the alien's experience not always suits Russia: the existing conditions differ, besides being worse, comparing with the situation, for instance, in China, where extraordinary measures were taken to ensure security.
As far as the political aspect is concerned, first, the president will have to convince the residents of the North Caucasus that the successful realization of the Olympic Games corresponds to their interests and that the return from them afterwards will not be felt only once but will be an urge towards the development of the region. At present, many residents of the North Caucasus express concern and even skepticism on the Games. The President has to change radically this attitude by means of the project conditionally named "What Will the Olympic Games Bring to the Common People". Second, the great attention should be paid to the so-called "Circassian question", which may become strained on the eve of the Olympic Games. Evidently, the approaches to damp down, if not to solve this problem will be found. It would be wrong or simply stupid to reduce all to the external influence. In the region there exist nationalist forces, which sincerely struggle for both the Circassian autonomy and even for creation of "the Great Circassia". Obviously, the contacts with them should not be reduced exclusively to "the policy of threats" and the search for a compromise (though very complicated) is needed. The more so, as there exists the probability of a provisional consensus and coordination of the efforts exerted by Circassian nationalists and Islamic radicals, which will lead to formation of a new, formerly unknown "roaring blend".
The problems directly connected with the North Caucasus are as follows: the migration of the local population to other regions of Russia and tension, quite often also animosity between newcomers from the region and the indigenous Slavonic population in Stavropol krai, Krasnodar krai , in Moscow and other cities and regions of Russia. The Caucasian migration is one of the main reasons of the growth of Russian ethic-nationalism, results in aggravation of inter-ethnic and recently inter-confessional relations.
In this situation it is necessary to make tougher penalties for ethnic-nationalist actions and to repudiate the practice to qualify them as every day occurrences and hooliganism, like it is done now and then. The idea of Russian identity should be propagated on a larger scale and with greater ability, besides in such way that the civil and ethnic identities do not confront each other.
Taking into account differences and tensions among the republics of the North Caucasus, for the next president as an optimal but very complicated strategy would be the simultaneous use of two approaches: the general, all-Caucasian, and the particular, republican approach, avoiding conflicts between these approaches, since the contradictions between North Ossetia and Ingushetia, complications in relations between Dagestan and Chechnya, Chechnya and Ingushetia will remain for a long time. Therefore it is expedient (there is no other way) to start the discussion of all questions at the local level, i.e. to decide them in particular with Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria etc., to work out certain general compromises; but these decisions, as soon as they have been taken, should become the law for the North Caucasus as a whole, and all participants should observe them, regardless of personal relations of local heads with the federal politicians.
The new president will have to do a lot in order to restore the confidence of residents of the North Caucasus in the Center. However,
at any rate he will not be able to solve all problems in the North Caucasus, the more so, as the process of governing of Russia as a whole for the next president will be connected with many political and other difficulties. The resolute steps should be taken for improvement of the situation in the region, since otherwise the region will for ever remain the most vulnerable place of the Russian state.
"Povestka dnya novogo presidenta ", Moscow, 2012, pp. 53-59.
Adash Toktosunova, Political analyst (Kyrgyzstan) PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES OF INTERFAITH AND ETHNICAL DIALOGUE IN KYRGYZSTAN
1. Kyrgyzstan on the Great Silk Road
Since the times of the Great Silk Road, multi-cultural and multiethnic Kyrgyzstan has been one of the most ancient sources of the Eurasian and Central Asian culture and a bridge between religions, cultures and civilizations. The geographical position of Kyrgyzstan has preconditioned convergence and inter-penetration of cultures, traditions and customs of many nations and religions. Today, this region is a unique model of intercultural, interethnic and inter-faith mutual understanding and interaction in the history of the world civilization.
The international trade route passed through the land of Kyrgyzstan, and people exchanged not only goods, but also ideas and views - in ancient times, the early Middle Ages, and Middle Ages. Merchants and warriors ewer often accompanied by a monk or a dervish - Buddhist, Christian, Zoroastrian or Muslim. That is why the peoples living on the route of the Great Silk Road surpassed others in
