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ТЕОРИЯ И МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ THEORY AND METHODOLOGY
Вестник Челябинского государственного университета. 2019. № 3 (425). Экономические науки. Вып. 64. С. 7—11.
УДК 338.1 DOI 10.24411/1994-2796-2019-10301
ББК 65.9(2Рос)
THE MODERNIZATION OF RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC TURBULENCE1
V. I. Barkhatov
Chelyabinsk State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia
Modern world economy, its structure and development trends raise qualitatively new demands for the structure and dynamics of the development of Russian economy. Discussions that are being held in traditional terminology and with the use of the traditional, linear view of development cannot result in an elaboration of a new policy of the modernisation of Russian economy, adequate to today's realities. The present paper offers a new point of view at the mechanism of modernisation-induced transformations on the basis of the author's approach to modernisation as a complex phenomenon. This approach is based on an analysis of system properties of Russian economy in terms of order and chaos. A particular attention is paid to ensuring control over entropy in the socioeconomic system of Russian economy in conditions of turbulence of the external environment.
Keywords: modernisation, industrialisation, development, Russian economy, point of bifurcation, turbulence, entropy.
The development of world economy and national economy is gradually being drawn into processes of profound changes both in a technological mode of production and production relations. There arises an objective need for modernising Russian economy in order to meet trends of the world's social development. Programmes of the modernisation of Russian economy are connected with a number of features of social and economic development, specific only for it. First of all, a special model of capitalism was formed in Russia, different from those in developed countries. In the process of the privatisation of state property, there evolved oligarchic capitalism and emerged oligarchic elites with their own economic interests, occasionally far from the transformation of new industrial relations into civilised forms manifested in real practices. The permanent redistribution of property would not contribute to the development of productive forces and improvement of their structure, but on the contrary, it would lead to a destruction of many branches of production or to theu-ъ degradation. These processes were accompanied with capital export, which made a contribution to a degradation of the entire economy and a reduction of its potential. During this period, a model of raw material economy took shape, in which the extraction and export of natural resources became a key factor of growth.
1 Перевод статьи В. И. Бархатова «Модернизация российской экономики в условиях экономической турбулентности» (Вестн. Челяб. гос. ун-та. 2018. № 7).
The competitiveness of manufacturing branches falls, and the production of many types of products reduces, there arises dependence on imports in many types of productions. This model of economy led to a depletion of economic potential. The emerged model of capitalism resulted in a merge of state bureaucracy and new financial-and-industrial elites. Economic interests of these groups were not mated with those of the rest of population and with entities formed out of it. There arose a situation of a multidirectionality of these interests, which fact ultimately brought about a growth of entropy in the social system of Russia's national economy and the latter's crisis. The increasing of the orientation of the economy to export would significantly reduce and limit possibilities of national modernisation and did not contribute to the development of new technologies, to the use of which developed countries proceeded, using a fourth objectively pressing industrial revolution. While scientific and technological potential was progressively built up in developed countries, even the process stock that was created in the 1980s was being rapidly taken to pieces in Russia.
Emerging trends of the development of Russian economy at this stage objectively demand for the latter's qualitative transformations. An onward movement, with regard to the trends of modern development, is possible in the context of resolving the contradictions that came into being in the 1990s and forming a forcing model of economic development, on the basis of new
technologies and an emergence of new economic entities which are exponents of economic interests of innovative economy. Meeting economic interests of all entities, including the so-called "creative entities" and reducing entropy at key points of growth are advisable, too. A transfer to a new modernisation of Russian economy is an objective trend of socio-economic development. Modernisation should ensure a sufficient level of scientific-and-technological progress accompanied with an active position of the state as an object of economic management, as well as by that of economically free and socially active groups. Not suppressing, but encouraging their interests, the state has the opportunity to integrate potential of separate individuals into social potential of the development and growth of economy.
In economic literature, there exists no unambiguous opinion regarding the understanding of the content of the category "modernisation". In a broad sense, modernisation is understood as a set of structural, technological and institutional changes aimed at increasing the competitiveness of national economy. Modernisation is a complex way of solving political and managerial, economic and social, cultural and personalised problems which the state and individuals face in a full volume in a context of internal and external threats (see V. Tsapf [1. P. 14]). For a deeper understanding of the content of modernisation it is necessary to disclose a number of semantic interrelationships of this category and contiguous concepts. A number of authors (VV. Alekseyev, I.V. Poberezhnikov [2], J. O'Connell [3]) tie up concepts of modernisation and transformation. A transformation is a kind of changes and reformation of principles and methods in a process of development. Scholars distinguish between functional, technological and global types of modernisation (see M. Levy [5], D. Lerner [6. P. VIII]). Also, modernisation is considered as a special stage of development and transition from traditional forms of management to liberal ones (S.N. Eisenstadt [4]). Modern Russian scientists also contribute to the understanding of the process of the modernisation of modern society, but they study modernisation as a phenomenon without delving into the essence of ongoing processes (S.N. Gavrov [12], T.I. Zaslavskaya [13], N.V. Zubarevich [14], M.V. Ilyin [15] and A.P. Manchenko [16]). Likewise, a number of authors consider the theory of development as a special case of the theory of modernisation. Development is a qualitative change in properties of an object, a transformation of the latter's internal and external relations on the basis of innovations.
There exist three viewpoints in the interpretation of development. G. Myurdal, [7], P. Streeten [8], H.W. Singer [9] study development as a relationship
of development proper and its economic and social outcome. J.B. Clark unequivocally ties economic development to economic growth. R.M. Nureyev correlates development with the dominance of factors of production at a certain stage of development [10]. A number of economists view development as periods of the alternation of order and chaos. Thus, modernisation is a process of the development and transformation of factors of production on the basis of new technologies within the frame of points of economic growth and zones of economic interests at a certain stage of development. Modernisation represents a series of gradual transitions, the complication of a technological mode of production, the formation of a number of new combinations of factors of production, changes in a proportion of the factors in transferring to a new state of an economic system. In the process of the modernisation of an entire economic system, it is necessary to consider the phenomenon of turbulence in the dynamics of a macroeconomic system. By turbulence we understand a successive change of various states of the stability of a system, which involves the oscillating activity of macroeconomic indicators. A turbulent transition in a process of a change of stages of modernisation represents an alteration in types of a system's equilibrium (from stable to unstable). The problem is to what extent a speed of transition in a process of modernisation reduces or increases a period of instability and the latter's transition to stability which is characterised by new parameters of the development and stability of a system. It is important to emphasise that a resulting dynamic state is part of an economic cycle of a transition to a new quality. A turbulent spiral occurs. This whole process cannot but affect the implementation and results of modernisation. It is difficult to predict development trends that take shape as a result of the reformation factors which determine a technological mode of production, transformations of production relations, changes in a quality of human capital, the extent to which outcomes of modernisation are adequate to economic interests of economic entities, to what extent a value of costs and degree of risk are high for economic agents, which are expected in a process of modernisation.
Working out a model of modernisation, we cannot help reckoning with factors that generate economic turbulence. In the XXI century, new factors came into being, an effect of which leads to an emergence of turbulent conditions in Russian economy. They should be regarded while implementing modernisation.
Firstly, these are international factors to which the formation of transnational corporations with special
economic interests and zones of influence in global economy should be attributed. They possess a significant mass of capital and the latest technologies, moving in the wake of the policies that is formed by developed capitalist countries. In a process of ongoing transformations and a transition from one force pole to multiple ones, a struggle of developed countries, including Russia, for a geopolitical place is underway. Previously, western countries considered Russia as a regional power, and it was not taken into account. Russia's entry into a geopolitical space introduced changes in economic relations between developed capitalist countries and Russia. An access to new technolo -gies and a mass of borrowed capital is being restricted, limitations on the export of resources from Russia are being imposed. This approach makes impact on economic growth, and a problem of the resource and financial support of modernisation arises. It is necessary to mobilise domestic financial resources and search for economic agents capable of accumulating a totality of all internal resources in order to ensure an economic breakthrough. The turbulence is increasing.
Secondly, turbulence is influenced by a new quality of global financial capital. At the turn of the century, we deal with financial capital which can reproduce financial capital proper. Social wealth is represented by fictitious capital that generates systematic financial and economic crises and increases the turbulence of the entire world economy. And as a result of an integration into the world space, Russian economy also lands in this zone of turbulence.
Thirdly, a new territorial division of the world as a struggle for world resources is underway. This struggle is accompanied with an economic division of the world. Such processes give rise to chaos in world economy.
Economic development and a process of modernisation cannot but be impacted by turbulence factors that have arisen in Russian economy since the 1990s. First of all, a chaotically carried-out privatisation of state property formed a system of state and private property concentrated in the hands of certain elites which have specific interests and which are unable to create preconditions for economic growth and a transition to a new technological mode on the basis of a new combination of factors and new technologies. The limited number of economic entities is a bearer of personalised financial and production capital, who are guided largely by their selfish interests. When these interests collide, turbulence in economy increases. At the same time, most economic agents are dormant, not increasing productive force, but limiting it. The point at issue is that the concentration of capital in the hands
of an insignificant number of agents led to a significant differentiation among them and to an emergence of masses of the poor. A dual problem emerged: on the one hand, their productive power is minimised and their existence depends on state resources allocated for their sustenance. A dependence arises: turbulence grows in a direct proportion to a growth of the mass of the poor. Total human capital becomes depleted. No systemic formation of state, large and small private capital. Their interpenetration does not occur.
Fourthly, turbulence is directly related to a particular technological mode, formed in the XXI century. A technological mode is associated with a specific professional structure and quality of labour force, which prevent from ensuring a growth of gross domestic product and productivity.
An equilibrium emerged in the economic system, adequate to a certain attractor reflected in a cyclicity of the development of the system. Based on the synergetic nature of economic dynamics, it is necessary to identify and single out — in development cycles including modernization — bifurcation points reflecting dynamics of gross domestic product. If there are no strongly marked attractors in this dynamics, then it testifies to an efficiency of modification. Bifurcation points arising in the course of modernisation show that a chosen vector of the transformation of an economic system is non-optimal. These points constitute a potential danger to economic development. An uncertainty is induced in open economy. In the course of carrying out modernisation, it is important to prevent the building-up of entropy in a state of constant turbulence. Parts of an economic system in a process of modernisation are weakened, and entropy is difficult to suppress, transformation slows down, and an intended effect fails to be achieved. When carrying out modernisation, choosing a model of economic equilibrium (in our conditions — a model of capitalism), as a certain stage of a combination of factors of production which permits obtaining the maximum effect, is of particular importance. Capitalism is influenced by dissipation, i.e. energy that disrupts an equilibrium of a system and reduces an efficiency of factors of production, thereby increasing entropy, as in any thermodynamic system. In keeping with the principle of entropy increase and its application to a study of a socio-economic system, modernisation requires an energy build-up, its maximisation. A decrease in volumes of resources leads to a growth of entropy. Energy consumption under capitalism is carried out in a wasteful way, it is associated with the destruction of various types of resources. All these processes generate chaos, disorder and entropy. High
entropy is objectively inherent in a model of capitalism. In such a situation, it is difficult to foresee how processes of the growth and development of economy consisting of a plurality of separate firms will be maintained. Management entities are increasingly dependent on uncertainty and emerging risks. For business entities, the problem is how to smooth out negative trends and reduce a combination of available resources to its effective use at a given instant.
In the development and subsequent introduction of new technologies in a production process on the basis of capital mobilisation and modernisation, it is necessary to define stages of modernisation. At the first stage, problems are solved, which relate to a possibility of the introduction of technologies that determine the fifth and sixth technological modes into a production process. Also, in this regard it is to be determined as to what extent resource potential of Russian economy will permit solving problems of this stage; to what extent a level of Russian technologies in branches that determine scientific-and-technologi-cal progress is comparable with advanced technologies of developed countries; how own advanced technologies can be supplemented with those of large transnational companies; what organisational and economic forms of the interpenetration of Russian capital and foreign high-tech capital are possible here. An emergence of joint ventures means primarily new technologies for Russian business. Such processes were observed in recent years. Currently, a turbulence increases around such "joint" companies, associated with an imposition of sanctions by western countries against Russia. In a process of modernisation, it is necessary to pay attention to these trends, and Russian companies feel totally stressed by a growth of entropy in economic relations in world markets.
Russian companies' elaboration of new technologies for their own needs is an objective need for developing and taking a qualitative leap to a new technological mode and an updated structure of Russian economy. Modernisation should take place at all Russian enterprises without exception, regardless of a form of ownership. The problem concerns an extent to which qualitative changes in the technological mode are needful in the direction of creating modern industries, consid-
ering a need for products in the national and global market, as well as the creation of new competitive advantages, the availability of creative management and highly qualified employees, adequate to new conditions. In the process of modernisation, it is necessary to define points of growth geographically and structurally, around which a scientific-and-production complex is formed, including large, medium and small business.
Rates of modernisation depend on the mobilisation of capital of business entities. The mobilisation of capital in Russian economy as a basis of resource supply is particularly relevant in this period. As a result of sanctions and restrictions on the import of capital from European countries, difficulties arose for market entities. The mobilisation of capital, which creates conditions for modernisation, encompasses several levels. Firstly, it is capital of large companies of a fuel-and-energy complex, which requires an increase of a share of accumulation in the structure of net profit. The accumulation of capital will not only permit solving problems of a technological level of a complex itself, but also financing concurrent projects of companies determining the technological development of Russian economy. Secondly, it is the creation of a pool of banks concentrating capital in major directions of development, primarily that of an industrial complex. A reduction of a refinance rate will make it possible to smooth out shocks from external sanctions.
The mobilisation of capital and an increase a share of savings for business entities is a cardinal way of technical re-equipment at the expense of own capital and not due to the impairment of business with loans. All this will permit reducing turbulence of economic processes, smoothing out emerging shocks and transferring to the second stage of modernisation as a process of jump-like development of economy on the basis of new modes corresponding to trends of worldwide development. The second stage of modernisation is the acceleration of economic growth accompanied with a new qualitative combination of factors of production, as well as the creation of prerequisites for new factors of the growth of public labour productivity and per capita incomes of population on the basis of the sixth technological mode.
Сведения об авторе
Бархатов Виктор Иванович—доктор экономических наук, профессор, директор Института экономики отраслей, бизнеса и администрирования Челябинского государственного университета, Челябинск, Россия. ecoba@csu.ru
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Bulletin of Chelyabinsk State University.
2019. No. 3 (425). Economic Sciences. Iss. 64. Рp. 7—11.
МОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯ РОССИЙСКОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТИ
В. И. Бархатов
Челябинский государственный университет, Челябинск, Россия. ecoba@csu.ru
Структура и тенденции развития современной мировой экономики предъявляют качественно новые требования к структуре и динамике развития российской экономики. Дискуссии, которые ведутся в традиционной терминологии, в ключе традиционного, линейного взгляда на развитие, не приведут к выработке новой политики модернизации российской экономики, адекватной сегодняшним реалиям. Предлагается новая точка зрения на механизм преобразований на основе авторского подхода к модернизации как к комплексному явлению. Данный подход основан на анализе системных свойств российской экономики с точки зрения порядка и хаоса. Особое внимание уделено обеспечению контроля энтропии в социально-экономической системе российской экономики в условиях турбулентности внешней среды.
Ключевые слова: модернизация, индустриализация, развитие, российская экономика, точка бифуркации, турбулентность, энтропия.
