CC BY
12holder Univ Northwestern Polytechnic. No.201310269829; published 20.09.2013.
192. Patent 1101348953 China, International Patent Classification7 D01F11/06; D01F6/18; D01F9/22. Surface modification method of polyacrylonitrile fiber for producing high performance carbon fibre. Xiao Liang, Jianzhong Yuan; patent applicant and patent holder Univ Northwestern Polytechnic. No.20081046042; published 21.01.2009.
193. Patent 1250116 China, International Patent Classification7 C01B31/08, D01F11/10, D06M10/00, D01F11/10, D06M10/00. Active carbon fiber surface
modifying method. Liu Lang, Li Kaixi, Ling Licheng; patent applicant and patent holder Shanxi Coal Chem Inst. No.19981023523; pending 07.10.1998; published 12.04.2000. 6p.
194. Patent 101412592 China, International Patent Classification7 C03C25 /44. Surface modification method for basalt fibre by using plasma treatment and carbon nano-tube coating. Yingchen Zhang, Hongyan Wu, Yiping Qiu; patent applicant and patent holder Univ Donghua. No.200810202626; pending 12.11.2008; published 22.04.2009. 9p.
УДК 614.8.07/08:614.876
THE MODELING OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS AND MAN-
MADE ENVIRONMENT
Sokolova A.
M.Sc.
University of Civil Protection, Ministry of Emergencies of the Republic of Belarus
г. Minsk Sokolova S. Doctor of Philosophy, International State Ecological Institute Sakharov International State Ecological Institute, Minsk, Minsk, RU D. in Philosophy, Doctor of Sciences, Associate Professor at the A.D. Sakharov International State Ecological Institute
of the Belarusian State University г. Minsk
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6654277
Abstract
The article presents the author's view on the topical issues of modeling of management decisions in emergencies in the context of the technogenic environment, emerge updated forms of communicative quasi-social relations between man and technology, which brings to the fore the problems of self-organization, innovative robotic, cybernetic systems and technobiotic stage of human civilization.
Keywords: modeling methods, automated information-management systems, "Liquidator" program, man-made environment.
Today against the background of in Ukraine crisis there is an intensification of competition for resources between "centers of power", aggressive sectional policy of Euro-Atlantic alliance, which dynamically changes international standards, imposes sanctions, uses "dirty" information technology, which actualizes the problem of modeling management decisions in emergencies [1, p. 46-51].
The beginning of the 21st century was marked not only by global crises (migration, food, military, economic, energy, coronary crisis,) but also by hybrid wars (information war, sanction war, network-centric warfare, cyber warfare, economic warfare) [2, p. 90]. Consequently, in such complex conditions of transformation of the geopolitical world, of particular importance are the issues associated with the emergence in the technogenic environment of self-organization phenomena of complex robotic, cybernetic systems and technobiotic stage of evolution of human civilization (neocybernetics). Let us note that the adoption and implementation of management decisions in emergencies is the responsibility of the manager, as the management
activity is the product of making timely decisions (system analysts, managers, experts), including in emergencies. The central place is occupied by the problem of developing an algorithm, modeling of managerial decisions in emergency situations, which is associated with innovative programs (software product), based on educational technology [3, p. 68].
The multidimensional process of making management decisions is structured and aimed at solving a problem situation: goals (the subject of management makes a decision); consequences (the direction of action is chosen); division of labor (there is a certain division of labor in the organization); professionalism (not every employee of the organization has professional knowledge, experience and is empowered to make certain decisions independently, especially in emergency situations). Managerial decision making is a dynamic process, which proceeds in time and is carried out in several stages, and the result of the management process is the activity of the head of the organization to implement the chosen decision (development of self-organizing robotic systems and design of complex technical systems) [4, p. 25].
Let us explain that the theory of decision-making uses the term "decision maker" (DM) or a group of individuals who develop a collective decision, can be individual or group DM, which actualizes the requirement to improve the effectiveness of management decisions (formation, choice of decisions) based on the scientific approach and implementation of innovative educational technologies. The interest in the modeling of management decisions in emergency situations is associated with the evolutionary development of the tech-nogenic environment: the design of artificial technical environments and systems, the emergence of innovative technological industries, the dynamic development of technogenic civilization, the introduction of computer systems, network technologies.
The technogenic environment is a source of controlling and guiding actions for technical systems and human civilization. To achieve the maximum effect from the implementation of management decisions it is necessary to adhere to the following recommendations: to objectively evaluate the experience and professionalism of executors; to motivate executors for the qualitative implementation of management decisions; to achieve the strict implementation of the plan of organizational and technical measures to implement the decision [5, p. 48]. And, in this case, any managerial decision is focused on achieving a concrete result that is why the aim of managerial activity is to find such innovative forms, methods, means, tools, which could contribute to achieving an optimal result. But, at the same time, it is important to take into account that ambiguous managerial decisions can be made, on the one hand, under time pressure, in conditions of information uncertainty, as the decision-making process is a certain sequence of stages that have direct and backward links between them. The process of decision-making in the organization is seen as a functional problem of the existence of alternatives and the subjective factor that affects the implementation of the management decision (the person making the decision).
First, the preparation of the management decision is an analysis of the situation at the micro and macro levels, including the search, collection, processing of information, as well as identifying and formulating the problems that need to be solved.
Secondly, decision-making, which carries out the development and evaluation of alternative solutions, targeted actions implemented on the basis of calculations, the selection of criteria for choosing the best solution and choose (adopt) the best solution.
Thirdly, it is the implementation of the decision, as measures are taken to specify the decision, bring it to the executors and monitor the progress of its implementation, make the necessary adjustments, assess the result obtained from the implementation of the decision. In this case, management decisions are divided into two levels: individual (the internal logic of the process itself) and collective (interest shifts towards creating an environment around the decision-making process), which is carried out with the help of specially created teams, consisting of groups of specialists from different fields of activity. Decision-making in such a
group leads to the emergence of a certain line of behavior of executors and managers [6, p. 63].
Let's explain that group acceptance of administrative decisions has also the negative side because it can lead to conformism, excessive optimism and to opposition, and also to unconditional belief in collective principles and open pressure on those resisting to group opinion [7, p. 185].
Modern researchers Plunkett L., Hale G. divided decisions according to the number of alternatives:
1) binary decision (there are two action alternatives);
2) standard decision, in which a small number of alternative choices are considered;
3) multi-alternative decision (large number of alternatives);
4) continuous decision, in which the choice is made from an infinite number of states of continuously changing controlled values.
And as a result, scientists have identified some factors that complicate the process of developing and making a managerial decision: lack and bias of information, errors of own experience, preferences, weak own managerial abilities, inability to organize the processes of making and implementing decisions [8, p. 26]. In the information society, managerial decisionmaking meets several principles of information support, which must necessarily be respected: relevance (the presentation of real information at the right time); reliability (adequacy of information provided by compliance with scientific principles of information collection and processing); relevance (obtaining information in accordance with the objectives); completeness of representation (revealing the essence of the phenomenon, its structure and relations); purposefulness (compliance with the main goal set); information unity (the ability to process data in accordance with the theory of computer science and statistical theory of observation).
The process of solving problem situations in the information society, requires managers to make sound, positive-efficient decisions, implemented through scientific methods, which are divided into two groups: methods of modeling and methods of expert evaluations. Thus, the first group, called methods of operations research, is based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most common problems. The development and optimization of solving a particular problem by modeling methods are divided into stages: setting the problem, determining the criterion of effectiveness of the analyzed operation, quantitative measurement of factors affecting the studied operation, building a mathematical model of the studied object (operation), quantitative model solution and finding the optimal solution, checking the adequacy of the model and the found solution to the analyzed situation, adjusting and updating the model. A huge part of optimization models developed for practical application, as a rule, are reduced to linear programming problems. However, taking into account the character of analyzed operations and established forms of dependence of factors, other types of models can be applied. So, if there are non-linear forms of dependence of the result of op-
eration on the main factors, then non-linear programming models; and if it is necessary to include time factor into analysis, then dynamic programming models; and, finally, if there is probabilistic influence of factors on the result of operation, then mathematical statistics models (for example, correlation and regression analysis). Let's specify that various emergencies of man-caused character, characterized by spontaneity, may occur at radiation hazardous facilities, but it is partially possible to predict them, thus reducing the risk of possible damage. Effective Decision Support Systems (DSSS), focused on development of optimal managerial decisions in emergency conditions, which should serve the primary goal, namely to save people, reduce material damage from emergencies and this system should analyze, provide information in a convenient form, necessary to make decisions on crisis prevention, as well as on evacuation of people, taking timely measures for localization, liquidation of the emergency situation, are called to cope with this.
Automated information and management systems, occupy a special place in the conditions of emergencies, and at present, many systems of such class have been created and are in operation, which are intended both for the solution of automation of individual workplaces of specialists providing management in emergency situations. The functional tasks of these systems, which can both perform calculation and information-reference functions and provide functions to support decisionmaking in emergency situations, are different. Thus, in the world practice, information systems of decision support have been developed, implemented and successfully operate.
The author's retrospective view of the existing information systems for the prevention and elimination of the consequences of emergencies showed that they, providing information on the adoption of necessary measures, do not reflect the dynamics of the analysis of the changing situation, adoption and execution of management decisions to eliminate emergencies, as well as do not evaluate the consequences of the decisions taken. We specify that the problems of pre-accident analysis of the safety of nuclear facilities and the development of methods for radiation situation forecasting at the early stage of an accident are devoted to the work of the Institute for Problems of Safe Development of Nuclear Power Engineering of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IBRAE RAS). The Institute has developed a stochastic atmospheric transport model, which is the core of the real-time computer system "Nostaradamus", that allows to create multidimensional and non-stationary scenarios of emergency development depending on the source of release, weather conditions and to analyze possible countermeasures. The computer system "Nostradamus" includes blocks to calculate the initial parameters of the release in fire and explosions. In this connection, a specialized information-modeling prognostic system TRACE was also developed at IBRAE RAS to support decision-making in radiation accidents, which allows to model radiation releases into the atmosphere from radiation-hazardous objects and to display data of radiation monitoring, analyze the possible
consequences of releases, create thematic maps to support decision-making in emergency situations, and the Institute of Radiology developed a model to assess the impact on the atmosphere of radioactive fallout from routine and accidental releases from nuclear power reactors.
Modern geoinformation model software performs forecasting of agricultural products contamination for any moment of time after precipitation depending on soil type, also calculation of surface contamination density is carried out, which helps to assess economic damage by comparing the forecast radionuclide content in agricultural products with the established norms. In addition, the software and information complex RISK-1 was also created which is designed to assess individual risks from chemically hazardous facilities (ammonia plants, chlorine warehouses) and to calculate concentration fields and toxic doses in accidents at such facilities [9, p. 208]. The University of Civil Defense of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus has developed a program to support decisionmaking in emergencies for members of the Commission of Emergencies. This software is designed to improve the efficiency of training future specialists "Liquidator". This program successfully operates in three modes: instructor, editor and student, which allows on a vector map model of the city and surroundings to create a model of the accident development scenario at a nuclear fuel cycle facility, setting initial data, as well as to arrange and determine the parameters of forces and means needed to eliminate the simulated incident. And in this program implemented algorithms for calculating the spread of the area of contamination (contamination), depending on the selected scenario (radiation accident), baseline data, meteorological data, modeled the following members of the KChS, representing certain links of industry subsystems State Emergency Service: medical (Ministry of Health); fire rescue (Ministry of Emergency Situations); municipal and technical (Ministry of Housing and Communal Services); provision of fuel and lubricants (Belarusian State Concern for Oil, Chemistry); protection of public order (Ministry of Internal Affairs); protection of agricultural animals, plants (Ministry of Agriculture and Food); transmission and distribution of information (Ministry of Information); communication (Ministry of Communications and Informatization); trade and food (Ministry of Trade, the Belarusian Republican Union of Consumer Societies); transport support (Ministry of Transport and Communications); power supply (Ministry of Energy); Ministry of Defense and evacuation commission. The "Liquidator" software allows you to simulate the activities of the Emergency Committee (EC) in case of emergencies of natural, man-made nature (accidents at chemical hazardous facility, nuclear fuel cycle facility, biological contamination hazard) on a vector map model of the city, the neighborhood with a model of the accident development at a chemical hazardous facility, nuclear fuel cycle facility, biological contamination development depending on the initial data. The software "Liquidator. Student" software is designed to improve the
efficiency of the educational process of training specialists of the Ministry of Emergencies of the Republic of Belarus in the field of protection of population and territories from natural and man-made emergencies through the introduction of innovative educational technologies.
Thus, the presented software product implements algorithms to calculate the spread of the contamination (pollution) area depending on the initial data, states of the hazardous substance and meteorological data. The "Liquidator" program includes single training, joint training (multi-user mode), also a scenario simulating radiological hazard is available [10, p. 119].
In summary, we note that the simulation of management decisions in emergency situations actualizes the use of LUTs that allow to simulate a specific or possible emergency situation (a possible emergency situation), which is important for the development of innovative robotic, cybernetic systems and technobi-otic stage of evolution of the technogenic environment with the dominance of remote communication in a period of global pandemic in the information society [11, p. 222]. When studying the technogenic environment and modeling of management decisions in emergency situations, we note that the number of all kinds of specific models is very large and one of the common types of models is the linear programming model, which is used to find the optimal solution in a critical situation, for example, the information war, the economic and sanctions war deployed by the Euro-Atlantic alliance, the distribution of scarce resources in the presence of increasing competing needs, which is especially relevant for the modern Republic of Belarus [12, p. 2627].
References:
1. Sokolova A.A., Sokolova S.N. Инфосфера и неотеррористическая агрессия в эпоху гибридных войн / San Francisco. Scientific achievements of the third millennium. Collection of scientific papers, on materials of the XV scientific-practical conference 15.09.2021. Pub. SPC «LJournal», 2021. - 88 p.
2. Sokolova A.A., Sokolova S.N. Information-educational environment and security of the modern person / Sokolova A.A., Sokolova S.N. // Bulletin of Polesie State University. Series of Social Sciences and Humanities. № 2, 2020. - С. 89-93.
3. Tikhonov М.М. Algorithmization and modeling of managerial decisions in emergency situations / М.М. Tikhonov, А.А. Sokolova, S.N. Sokolova // Annali d'Italia: is a peer-reviewed European journal. -2021. - No. 15, Vol. 1. - Р. 66-70.
4. Sergeev S.F. Problem of quasi-social interface in robotic environments / S.F. Sergeev, A.S. Sergeev // Robotics and Technical Cybernetics. 2014, № 2(3). - С. 23-28.
5. Golubkov E.P. Marketing research: theory, methodology and practice. - Moscow: Finpress Publishing House, 1998. - 416 с.
6. Kuznetsova L.A. Development of management decision. Chelyabinsk: Chelyabinsk State University, 2001. - 352с.
7. Plunkett Lorne. Development and Making of Managerial Decisions. The proactive manager: Advanced management: Short version from English / L. Plunkett, G. Hale. - Moscow: Economics, 1984. - 167 с.
8. Averin V.S., Buzdalkin K.N. Geoinformation model for forecasting radioactive contamination of agricultural products as a result of normal and accidental releases of NPP / V.S. Averin, K.N. Buzdalkin // Emergencies: prevention and elimination: collection of theses of the V International Scientific-Practical Conference. In 3, vol. Т. 1 / Ed. by E.R. Bariev [et al].
- Mn., 2009. - 26 с.
9. Gavrilyuk D.A., Katkov V.L. Software package for risk assessment of chemically hazardous objects / D.A. Gavrilyuk, V.L. Katkov // Emergencies: prevention and elimination: collection of theses of the V International Scientific and Practical Conference. In 3 vol. Т. 1 / Ed. by E.R. Bariev [et al]. - Mn., 2009. -210 с.
10. Tikhonov М.М., Sokolova А.А., Sokolova S.N. To the question of modeling of managerial decisions in emergency situations / М.М. Tikhonov, Sokolova А.А., Sokolova S.N. // Scientific achievements of the third millennium. Collection of scientific papers, on materials of the XIII international scientific-practical conference on 25.03.2021, Part 1. Pub. SPC "LJournal", 2020. - Р. 116-121.
11. Sokolova A.A., Sokolova S.N. INFOSPHERE AND FUNDAMENTAL VALUES IN THE AGE OF HYBRID WARS / Тезисы XI международной научной конференции молодых ученых, аспирантов, магистрантов, студентов: «Актуальные экологические проблемы» 2-3 декабря 2021. Минск: БГУ. - С. 222.
12. Sokolova A.A., Sokolova S.N. THE AGE OF HYBRID WARS AND NEOTERRORISM IN THE INFORMATION SOCIETY / A.A. Sokolova, S.N. Sokolova // Bulletin of Polesie State University. Series of Social Sciences and Humanities. 2021, №1.
- С. 26-34.
