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9GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
THE METHODOLOGY OF THE EVALUATION OF DROUGHT AND PRODUCTIVITY
RELATIONS IN AZERBAIJAN
Mammadov A., Jalalova V.
State University
ABSTRACT
The initial stage of the drought usually begins with low-active high anticyclones and passes to the continuous (from several weeks to 2-3 months) high temperature and low rainfall air condition. As a result, the soil moisture, the high temperature gradually decreases in the humidity, the potential evaporation increases, and at this time the threat to agricultural crops increases, too. The drought is a very dangerous atmospheric phenomenon in the reduction of the agricultural productivity, along with this it is also one of the processes that will lead to the depletion of water resources. Thus, the study of the drought as one of consequences of the modern warming period has become one of the problems of concern not only to researchers, but to the entire world community. In the fulfilled article there has been explored the Ganja-Gazakh region, one of the largest economic regions of Azerbaijan, and there have been assessed some aspects of drought-productivity relations in the modern warming period.
Keywords: drought, anomaly, productivity, intensity, frequency, trend, angle coefficient.
Introduction. At present, the drought as the one of consequences of the modern global warming has become one of the main topics of research and discussion on how it will affect the agricultural productivity.
In particular, the increase in the productivity of some regions of the Earth over last 15-20 years has caused some misunderstanding among researchers. Thus, it is not easy for researchers to determine the reasons of the increase in the productivity on the background of global warming and declining rainfall.
The purpose of the research. It consists of an assessment of drought-productivity relations in the Lesser Caucasus region of Azerbaijan on the background of global warming on the basis of a new methodology.
=Currently, in some parts of the world there observes the process of increasing precipitation on the background of global warming. It indicates a change in the circulation regime of the atmosphere. In order to clarify this issue, let's consider the brief analysis of the relationship between the productivity and the precipitation in the republic:
35 30 25 20 15
cent/ha
♦
♦ ♦
10
5
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Figure 1. The productivity of autumn wheat in Azerbaijan over 1995-2005 y.y., (cents / ha)
The main point in the figure is that over the period of the modern warming, the productivity has been increased in Azerbaijan since 1995. Of course, this is considered as a good condition. But it is possible to think about the reasons for this. If this is the case, then the global warming will not be major inconvenience. Our researches consider the increase of the productivity over the republic as a result of the increase of the pre-
cipitation. Thus, over last 20 years, there has been observed the increase of the precipitation in some mountainous regions of the Lesser Caucasus, this increase has been more than 100-150 mm in some medium and high mountainous regions. As can be seen from figure 1. despite the increase of temperatures in regions the growth of the productivity has been remained stable over 2001-2009 y.y. In most regions in 2010 y. the drought has been resulted in the reduction of the
productivity. After that, the productivity has been increased again. Thus, the increase of the temperature, as well as the increase of the precipitation and the decrease of the frequency of droughts may be realistic. Of course, such processes can lead to the increase of the productivity.
The study area is located on the north-eastern slope of the Lesser Caucasus region of Azerbaijan. The region is one of the economically important regions of the country, Ganja-Gazakh economic region. Namely, above-mentioned aspects make inevitable to analyze and evaluate drought-productivity relations in the area. For this purpose, there have been used the existing precipitation data of Ganja, Gazakh, Agstafa, Shamkir and Gadabay observation posts for 1992-2019 y.y.
According to table 1, the productivity of wheat in Ganja over 2000-2019 y.y. has been 33.9 cents/ha in
2003 y. and 33.4 cents / ha in 2009 y. In Gazakh, the growth dynamics of the productivity increased almost linearly from 28.6 cents / ha to 37.7 cents/ha. Over the study period in the territory of Tovuz region there has been recorded the linear increase in the dynamics of the productivity (excluding small fluctuations). In Gadabay region, there has been almost no significant increase in the productivity between 2000 and 2004 years, and between 2005 and 2013 years, the productivity increased from 29.4 cents/ha to 31.2 cents/ha. But over the next 5-6 years there has been a few decrease [1,2].
Although the physical and geographical features of the Agstafa region differ from Gadabay, no significant changes in the dynamics of the productivity are taken into account here. But in Shamkir the productivity has been increased from 33 cents/ha to 45 cents/ha.
Table 1.
The productivity of the wheat in the Lesser Caucasus region of Azerbaijan, cents/ha
Years Ganja Gazakh Tovuz Gadabay Aghstafa Shamkir
2000 13,5 28,6 26,4 13,9 23,4 33,0
2001 14,3 27,2 31,5 18,7 30,4 42,2
2002 33,9 29,0 29,5 20,3 26,8 45,0
2003 25,0 29,0 30,0 22,4 27,3 45,1
2004 19,0 29,3 30,5 23,7 27,5 45,0
2005 24,1 26,0 32,4 29,4 27,9 45,2
2006 22,5 28,0 32,6 29,9 27,4 45,3
2007 22,5 29,7 32,8 30,2 27,4 45,3
2008 16,6 30,8 33,0 31,5 34,8 41,1
2009 33,4 27,0 32,5 31,8 26,5 40,9
2010 13,2 25,0 29,4 30,3 18,7 37,2
2011 - 25,9 31,6 31,5 24,0 41,5
2012 21,0 28,1 31,5 31,1 26,1 41,6
2013 21,9 26,0 37,0 31,2 22,1 41,0
2014 23,9 26,7 33,5 28,6 27,5 33,7
2015 22,1 31,1 33,8 26,5 29,2 38,3
2016 12,5 33,9 33,7 26,7 29,6 35,1
2017 23,5 26,0 33,1 27,2 29,5 35,8
2018 21,8 36,6 34,5 27,2 30,4 34,3
2019 22,7 37,7 -
Table 2.
The number of the repetition of droughts over 1992-2019 y.y.according to the average monthly data of some re____gions of the Lesser Caucasus _____
Points I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
Ganja 12 18 14 18 19 22 19 20 13 15 13 21
Gazakh 18 17 17 20 19 26 20 21 13 17 14 20
Aghstafa 14 10 14 15 9 16 8 11 6 10 6 15
Gadabay 12 12 12 12 16 16 18 18 17 15 12 18
Tovuz 18 22 19 18 18 21 16 20 13 18 17 25
In the table 2 there have been calculated 27-year (by month) drought indices (SPI) based on average monthly precipitation anomalies. According to calculations the least droughts have been occurred in September and November (49 times each) and the most in December (78 times).
Thus, over 1992-2019 y.y. from the mentioned regions 225 droughts have been registered in Tovuz, 222 in Gazakh, 134 in Agstafa and 178 in Gadabay [2,3].
Let's start our preliminary research from Tovuz:
How to explain the reasons for the increase of the productivity in the region, which has experienced 225 droughts over 27 years in Tovuz?
In order to clarify the issue there have been calculated precipitation distributions and SPI drought indices in Tovuz, and in this case Tspi =|-0,16|; Tprec. = |0,17|.
Thus, in Tovuz region the value of the angle coefficient for SPI drought indices is (Tspi ) = -0,16 and the value of the angle coefficient for the precipitation is (Tprec.) = 0,17. Since the values of both angle coefficients are modularly close, their affects may balance
each other. Of course, the negative value of the angle coefficient for drought indices indicates that its intensity is greater. In order for the processes to balance each other, i.e. to reduce the intensity of the drought, the ad-
In Gadabay, the growth in the productivity has been fluctuated between 15-30 centners between over 2000-2005 y.y., and then has been remained almost stable until 2013 y. Over 3 -4 years after 2013 y. it has been decreased to 5-6 centners (Fig.4). At that time, the angle coefficient for the drought index in Gadabay has been determined as the (Gspi = 0.19), but for the precipitation as the (Gprec. = 0.28). The values of coefficients show that the precipitation coefficient is slightly more modular than the drought coefficient. Therefore, an increase in the dynamics of the precipitation has been ob-
by the increase of the precipitation in Tovuz. During that period, the precipitation in Tovuz has been increased to 100-150 mm. (fig.2.).
In addition, the positive value of the angle index of the drought index in Gadabay indicates the decrease in the dynamics of the drought. Due to the above-mentioned reasons, the productivity has been increased in Gada-bay in 2005-2013 y.y. The largest increase in the productivity in Gadabay (more than 30 cents / ha) has been in 2007-2013 y.y. Namely, in those years the precipitation has been significantly increased in comparison with the norm. In particular, over 2009-2013 y.y. the precipitation in Gadabay has been increased to 200 mm in comparison with the norm.
served in Gadabay during the mentioned period (fig.2).
Figure 3. The distribution of the precipitation in Gadabay for 1992-2018 y.y., (mm)
ditional precipitation is needed. This role is completed
The distribution of average annual precipitation on the territory of Tovuz over 1996-2018 y.y.
400
350
300
E 250
E
c o 200
4-J a
Ei 150
'u
e
r q. 100
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005 Years
2010
2015
202
Figure 2. The distribution of the precipitation in Tovuz over 1996-2018 y.y., (mm)
Let's analyze the situation in Shamkir region from the point of view of the angle coefficient, which is one of the most and continuously increasing productivity given in Table 1. In Shamkir, the value of the angle coefficient for the drought index has been determined as (Shspi = 0.12), and the value of the angle coefficient for the distribution of the precipitation has been determined as (Shprec. = 0.06). Therefore, the value of the angle coefficient for the precipitation is 2 times lower than the coefficient determined for the drought, which suggests that precipitation can not regulate the effects of the drought, the period has been very dry. But how can the productivity growth shown in Table 1 be achieved? Only by irrigation.
Thus, on the basis of the applied methodology, it is possible to determine whether the productivity is increased naturally or unnaturally. In addition, it is possible to determine the role of other factors that affect the productivity.
In Ganja, however, there has been no significant change in the productivity. But how did the angle coefficients change in this case? At that time, the value of the angle coefficient for the drought index in Ganja has been (GNspi = 0.12) and the value of the angle coefficient for the precipitation (GNprec = 0.12). So the value of both coefficients is modularly equal. For this reason, the effects of the processes are balanced when their effects are modularly close or equal to each other. Here,
400
350
300
E
E 250
c
o
"+J 200
a
+J
'u 150
e
OL
100
50
0
the slight increase of the precipitation is compensated by the change in the intensity of the drought.
The distribution of average annual precipitation on the territory of Ganja over 1996-2018 y.y.
1990
1995
2000
2005 YYears
2010
2015
202
Figure 4. The distribution of the precipitation in Ganja for 1996-2018 y.y., (mm)
Figure 5. The productivity of the grain in Gadabay over 2000-2018 y.y., (cents/ha)
One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is that it is possible to determine the percentage of any process that affects the productivity. To do this, the angular coefficients of the productivity must be determined by the process that affects them. For example, let's examine the impact of the drought on the grain productivity in the case of Gadabay. In Gadabay, the angle coefficient of the productivity is Gprod. = 0.22 (fig. 5), the angle coefficient of the drought is Gspi=0.19, then GspI/Gprod= 0.86, which is equivalent to about 86%. As we know, the Gadabay area is mainly used for the grain growing, and the decline in the productivity in these areas may be mainly due to the drought [4,5].
The result
Thus, the relationship between the drought and the precipitation is explored in more detail based on the methodology we propose in this article. Because the drought is calculated based on precipitation anomalies. Thus, the angle coefficients of the trend are determined for the drought and the precipitation. When both angle coefficients are equal to or close to the modulus, the productivity is close to the norm. When the angle coefficient of the precipitation is greater than that of the drought, the effect of the drought on the productivity does not exceed 5%. When the angle coefficient of the drought is greater than the angle coefficient of the precipitation, the drought is taken as the main reason for the decrease in the productivity (by assessing the role
of other effects). When the angle coefficient for the drought is negative, the main reason for the decrease in the productivity is considered to be drought, while other effects are not taken into account.
Note: Precipitation data have been obtained from the database of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, and the information on the productivity has been obtained from the published database of the Republican statistics Committee.
References
1. Mammadov A.S. Modern climate change in Azerbaijan and its forecasting. Baku - 2015. 300 p.
2. Imanov F.A., Mammadov A.S. Drought study in the subtropical climate zone of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan Geographical Society, 2011, Volume XVI, p. 266270.
3. Drozdov O.A. Dryness and moisture dynamics. L .: Hydrometeorologist, 1980, 90 p.
4. Sazonov B.I. Severe winters and droughts. L .: Hydrometeorologist, 1991, 240 p.
5. Mammadov A.S., Salalova V. Y. Genetic Features of Drought are in Azerbaijan. American Research Journal of Agriculture Volume 7, Issue 1, 2021. Pages 1-6, Research Article / Open Access / ISSN (Online) -2378-9018.D0I:
