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The method of evaluation of greenhouse gases emission from car-road complex and its application in estimation of caused losses
Section 8. Transport
Radkevich Maria, Tashkent Automobile and Road's Institute, associated professor, the Faculty of Automobile mechanic
E-mail: [email protected] Salokhiddinov Abdulkhakim, Tashkent Irrigation and Melioration Institute, professor, the Faculty of Hydro melioration E-mail: [email protected]
The method of evaluation of greenhouse gases emission from car-road complex and its application in estimation of caused losses
Abstract: Evaluation of greenhouse gases emission from car-road complex depending on evenness of road cover is offered. Given equations allow to perform an inventory with modern state of technology of production and repair of transport vehicles and engineering and repair of roads.
Keywords: car-road complex, greenhouse gases emission, environmental damage
Growing progress in environmental pollution causes an anxiety in world science community. A great number of studies are devoted to investigation of possibilities to lower pollution level in different technological processes, as well as to the problems of emissions inventory.
Considerable contribution into the problem of environmental pollution is brought by automobile transport. The main part of pollutions is due to exhaust gases from the engines of transport vehicles. However in the process of operation of motor roads other processes, such as fuel production for automobiles and road machines traffic, production of repair materials, etc. also contribute into environmental pollution. The problem of inventory and evaluation of contribution of these components into total amount of emission of car-road complex (CRC) is not completely studied yet.
A special attention world science community pays to inventory of greenhouse gases emission.
An accountability in greenhouse gases emissions becomes compulsory for many international organizations. International community also demands different organizations to present data on greenhouse gases emissions to estimate beforehand potential economic and financial risks, connected with greenhouse gases emissions. In fact, an accountability on greenhouse gases emissions becomes a norm no less important than evaluation of an influence on environment and control in ordinary polluting substances emissions.
Greenhouse gases are not pollution substances in general understanding of this term. As far as they do not directly influence the health or eco-systems, the inspection is not carried out on concentration of this or that greenhouse gas near industrial enterprise; the inspection is done on absolute values of emissions during rather long time — usually for a year. It
does not matter whether it is a volley emission or a gradual one. An amount of emission for a period of one year is a factual contribution of emission source into global greenhouse effect. Neither global nor regional effect depends on the location of emission.
In this paper the problems of inventory of emissions of CRC, formation of the method of simplified determination of economic damage from environmental pollution in road operation and development of basic mechanism of economic impact of road services at excess emissions are considered.
To solve the problem first of all it is necessary to consider CRC as a complex system, changing within the life cycle (LC) of road. Emissions into atmosphere within the life cycle of road are due to:
• Traffic intensity of transport vehicles;
• Maintenance of roads;
• Current repair works of roads;
• Technical service and car repair;
• Fuel for the traffic of transport vehicles;
• Materials for car repair;
• Materials for maintenance of roads;
• Materials for current repair of roads.
As the amount of emissions varies greatly due to numerous factors, difficult to be taken into consideration, the development of the methods which permit to estimate an amount of CRC emissions in dynamics presents an important issue.
To do this it is necessary to reveal the factor which depends on all components of total emissions of CRC. Such factor may be an evenness of road cover. According to experts assessments [8] a contribution of road component in estimation of car emissions is 10-15%.
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Section 8. Transport
In complex evaluation of “road-car” system emissions it is necessary to take into account complex interaction of road and car. Car traffic, moving on road, destroys it; here car damage occurs as well. So, the state of road cover depends on periodicity of technical service and repair of transport vehicles. There exists a rather definite dependence [1] between the state of road cover and periodicity of repair of transport vehicles.
Damage of road occurs due to definite law depending on traffic intensity and climatic factors. To maintain the state of the cover on an acceptable level with given intensity of traffic, a certain number of average repairs of road is necessary. Repairs of transport vehicles and roads are accompanied with harmful substances emissions, which should be accounted in inventory process [2].
We have made an attempt to conduct an inventory of all emissions in “road-car” system during life cycle of road. In order to reveal the dependences between allowable evenness of road cover and an amount of emissions in different stages of life cycle of roads there was conducted a wide-scale computer experiment. To carry out an experiment the following models were chosen:
Road models
1. Model of prediction of road evenness [3].
2. Model, which determines average annual area of cover, subjected to current repair [4].
3. Model, describing smoothing effect of average repair [5].
Transport vehicles models
1. Model of prediction of transport vehicles speed in relation to evenness of road cover [6].
2. Model of prediction of amount of emissions from transport vehicles traffic, depending on speed [7].
3. Model of evaluation of wear intensity of transport vehicles, depending on traffic speed and evenness of road cover [1].
As an initial data published results of studies carried out by NAMI, laboratory of Moscow Automobile and road construction institute, Road research institute of Kazakhstan, State JSC Uzavtoyul were taken; they relate to regularities of changes of the state of road cover with time, and an amount of emissions during transport vehicles motion, repair of transport vehicles and road cover, effect of fuel and materials [1; 3; 4; 5; 7; 8; 9].
An experiment presents a variation problem with examination of options of allowable evenness; it includes 9 stages for roads with capital type of road cover and 5 stages for roads with light-weight type. Each stage corresponds to different intensity of traffic. Each stage includes 4-6 options of allowable evenness of cover. Allowable evenness of cover was given from 3,5 IRI (“excellent” according to accepted system of evaluation of evenness during the period of road operation) [10]. Three options were considered as current repairs, used to maintain allowable evenness:
S surface treatment;
S thermo-profiling;
S laying of new layer of asphaltic macadam.
Time of operation of road with capital type of road cover surface is taken as 18 years, with light-weight type — 12 years.
For the experiment traffic intensity options were chosen typical for roads in Uzbekistan (according to data presented by State JSC “Uzavtoyul”).
As a result of experiments:
S correlation dependence between evenness of road and amount of emissions was established;
S an equation to determine an amount of emissions, depending on evenness under certain intensity of the traffic was derived;
S optimal values of evenness with minimal emissions observed, were found.
Results of experiments were subjected to statistic treatment. On the example of greenhouse gas СО2 for the option of “surface treatment” repair 2-factor dispersion analysis was carried out:
Factor А — evenness (4, 6, 8, 10 IRI);
Factor B — traffic intensity (3000, 4000, 5000, 6000, 7000, 9000 cars per day at each value of evenness).
As an iteration, the following emissions were taken: 1) exhaust gases of transport vehicles, 2) technical maintenance and vehicles repair, 3) fuel production, 4) material production for technical maintenance and repairs.
1-factor analysis “evenness — emissions” for each option of traffic intensity was carried out. Dispersion analysis shows statistic reliability of the dependence of emission amount on evenness of road cover.
Stated dependences permit us to work out the methods of inventory of emissions of CRC, based on data of monitoring of the state of motor roads. That is, knowing the evenness of road cover and traffic intensity on the roads of a given category, we may determine average annual amount of emissions per 1 kilometer of road.
Emissions from all above mentioned sources are divided into 3 groups: 1) greenhouse gases, 2) emissions in roadside zone, 3) local pollution.
“Greenhouse gases” are emissions (СО2, СН4 and N2O) from all sources.
“Emissions in roadside zone” include emissions from moving transport vehicles and ones from repair works on the road.
“Local pollution” is an emission from repair works of transport vehicles and material production (emissions of industrial enterprises).
On the basis of results obtained in experiments the conclusion was drawn that by each value of traffic intensity there exists optimal evenness with minimal emissions. With improved quality of the road cover СО2 emissions at low intensity of traffic are increasing; this is explained by greater expenditure of force on greater velocity.
Based on experimental data in «MATLAB» medium a choice of equations was done to express the dependence “СО2 emissions — traffic intensity” under different values of evenness of road cover.
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The method of evaluation of greenhouse gases emission from car-road complex and its application in estimation of caused losses
All curves are described by equations of the 2nd degree, which may be presented in general form:
m = А • N2 + В • N + С (1)
СО 2
Equation coefficients А, В and С change depending on evenness (Fig. 1).
As we may see the curves have a complex form. An attempt to choose power functions of these graphs with MATLAB and ORIGIN programs gives rather great error, so for mathematical description of these curves we will use interpolations.
Taking a number of values of evenness and describing obtained dependences with Newton’s interpolation polynomial we will define coefficients А, В and С of equation (l) for any values of evenness. As a result of substitutions and calculations we derive equations for coefficients:
А: yl = -0,000008688 х8 + 0,000585373 х7-0,017016784 х6+ 0,279385699 х5-2,836359632 х4+ 18,21080871 х3-71,97313455 х2 + 159,4341975 х — 150,497783 = А В:у 2 = -0,000038605 х8 + 0,0035213 х7-0,129120942 х6+ 2,527767264 х5-29,17135835 х4+ 204,573212 х3-855,9080764 х2 + 1963,566667 х — 1849,876144 = В С:у3 = -0,000733432 х8 + 0,04751178 х7-1,308293548 х6+ 19,99653795 х5-185,6542291 х4+ 1072,386057 х3-3763,169261 х2 + 7327,045842 х — 6034,965189 = С
(2)
(3)
(4)
With expressions (2), (3), (4) СО2 emissions may be an intensity of traffic, thousands of cars per day.
determined at any value of evenness of road cover (in given Equations for roads with light-weight type of cover are
limits) and traffic intensity with equation (l), where N — is derived by similar way.
А1: у, = -0,025844696х5 + 1,260701208х4-24,0599029х6+ 223,9966392х2 — 1015,16234х + 1791,801901 = А
(5)
В : у2 = 0,119602 х5-5,827709 х4 +111,110845 х3-1033,391737 х2+4680,505456 х — 8198,840181 = В
С!: у3 = -0,09864335 х5 + 4,744248895 х4-89,42294478 х3+ 823,812271 х2 -— 3703,244415 х+6501,290406 = С
(6)
(7)
The equations to estimate emissions of other substances may be derived by similar way.
Equations to estimate emissions obtained as a result of numeric analysis were subjected to experimental check-up. As far as to conduct full in-situ check-up of results obtained
seems not possible (for example it is impossible to check the change of emissions during repair works, fuel and materials production depending on evenness of road cover), a partial check-up of results has been done, namely, the study of dependences of emissions from moving vehicles in roadside zone on
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Section 8. Transport
evenness of road cover.
Results of experiments were subjected to statistical treatment in order to:
— check-up statistic reliability of results of in-situ experiment
— compare results of computer and field experiments Two-factor dispersion analysis was conducted on two
factors:
Factor А — evenness (6, 8, 10, 13 IRI)
Factor B -traffic intensity (4, 8, 12, 16, 20 thousands of cars per day)
As an iteration results of: a) computer and b) field experiments were accepted Dispersion analysis confirmed statistic reliability of the dependence of chosen index of emissions on evenness of road cover and traffic intensity. The degree of the effect of evenness is 46,6%, that of intensity — 50,1%.
The difference 0,9585 between average values in iterations appeared to be less than least essential difference (by Student’s criterion) Н095 = 1,265977.
So, the difference between results of field and computer experiments may be neglected and it may be possible to consider that they follow one and the same law. Besides, as far as results of field experiments are similar to computer ones, we may conclude that the use of obtained equations to predict emissions depending on road evenness is justified.
According to results of carried out studies, an information about all types of emissions depending on evenness of roads and different traffic intensity, has been obtained. This information may be used in practice to construct the systems of monitoring and inventory of emissions of car-road complex, as well as to assess the loss, caused to environment by car-road complex.
At present there does not exist any unique method to estimate the loss, caused to environment by car-road complex; however there do exist general methods to estimate economic loss due to environmental pollution. Studies in direction of development of a unique method of estimation of damage caused by greenhouse gases are carried out by many researchers. In Republic of Uzbekistan regulation of fines for negative effect on surrounding environment is defined by the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, on 01.05.2003, No 199 “On improvement of the system of payments for environmental pollution and waste allocation on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan” and Regulation “On the procedure of application of compensation payments for environmental pollution and
m = 0.52 97 -102 + 53.4463 •:
CO 2 IRI 10
mcO2 = 0.4585 •lO2 + 62.7562 •
waste allocation on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan” on 01.05.2003. However in these documents car-road complex is not considered on the whole as a resource of pollution in determination of compensation payments. According to data of State Committee on nature protection an estimation of the effect on environment is conducted for transport sector only.
Following the interconnection between the quality of road cover and economic loss from pollution will help to increase the responsibility of JSC “Uzavtoyul” enterprises in a quality of maintenance and road repair by introducing the system of taxes and fines. An evaluation of a loss caused by car-road complex on the whole, will allow to correct the rates of compensation payments; this will have a considerable impact on the budget of the Republic.
It should be also noted that though the studies have been performed for conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan, worked out method of estimation of environmental damage from car-road complex may be used in any other region.
Economic loss from environmental pollution on road operation directly depends on the state of road cover (evenness). Knowing the values of evenness of road cover and traffic intensity we may conduct an inventory of emissions and to estimate economic loss from environmental pollution by greenhouse (and other) gases from car-road complex on the whole.
Consider results obtained on the example of emissions of greenhouse gases СО2 at the motion and maintenance of cars and repair of roads; traffic intensity is N=6000 cars per day, average road repair is taken as surface treatment.
Data on monitoring of evenness of road cover was suggested as a basis to conduct an inventory of greenhouse gases. Normative ground for emissions monitoring should be the system of estimations of the state of cover, accepted in the country. If the evenness of road cover is evaluated as satisfactory, greenhouse gases emissions should be also evaluated as satisfactory ones, that is, acceptable ones. If the evenness is evaluated as bad, it may be considered that greenhouse gases emissions excess an acceptable level.
As shown above, mathematical dependence of different gases emissions from car-road complex on road cover evenness is expressed by equation (1). Equation (1) allows to estimate an excess of actual emissions relative to some acceptable (satisfactory) level.
Let us assume that satisfactory evenness is IRI 6, and actual evenness is IRI 10. Estimate an excess of СО2 emissions at intensity N = 10 thousands of cars per day.
+ 6.6314 = 594.064 ton/ ,
/year • km
-12.8252 = 660.5868ton/ ,
/year • km
An excess of emissions is EE = 66,52 ton/year-km.
If to take price index from the effect of greenhouse gas СО2 according to European methodology [11] as equal to 3,33currency unit/ton, we will get excess emissions in terms of money equal to 221,5 currency unit/year-km.
In similar way excess emissions of other gases may be estimated and an amount of total sum of additional losses could be assessed.
In Uzbekistan “excellent” evenness corresponds to IRI
4. Assuming an amount of emissions at IRI 4 for each value
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The method of evaluation of greenhouse gases emission from car-road complex and its application in estimation of caused losses
of intensity as equal to 100%, we will determine the differ- with IRI 4.
ence in emissions under other values of evenness, comparing Curves built on these results are shown in Figure 2.
Fig. 2. Graph of excess emissions at traffic on roads with different evenness comparing with IRI 4
Knowing traffic intensity and evenness of road cover on studied section of road and having this graph one may easily estimate excess emissions and calculate economic loss caused.
Conclusion.
1. Evenness of road cover may serve as a criterion for estimation of an amount of greenhouse and other gases emissions.
2. Worked out method of inventory of greenhouse (and other) gases emissions caused by car-road complex, based on results of monitoring of evenness of road cover allows to estimate not only total amount of emissions, but to reveal excess emissions relative to some acceptable level as well.
3. Excess emissions in terms of money estimates the amount of additional damage caused to environment. This
sum may present the basis for estimation of penalty size, imposed on road services which are responsible for excess emissions; further this may serve as an instrument of regulation of environmental pollution.
A general principle of possible mode of inventory is considered in this paper. Given equations allow to perform an inventory with modern state of technology of production and repair of transport vehicles and engineering and repair of roads. With improvement of these processes emissions would change as well. However, using proposed principle and having data on emissions, it is possible to derive the equations similar to (1) for general estimation of emissions.
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