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21DOI: 10.12731/2070-7568-2015-3-80-92 UDC 339
the implementation of the «third energy package» of the eu and the interests of the main suppliers of natural gas to eu countries
Gokzhaeva E.B.
The article is devoted to the application of the Third energy Package of the European Union.
It discusses the features of the strategy of Russia for the EU energy market and other energy suppliers related to «Third energy package».
The characteristic patterns of energy consumption of the EU, major and prospective suppliers, strategy between the EU and Russia in the energy sphere.
Systematic expert views on the impact of the Third energy Package on the relationship between the EU and Russia.
Keywords: Third Package for Gas; structure of energy consumption of the EU; energy market.
реализация «третьего энергетического пакета» ес и интересы основных поставщиков природного газа в страны евросоюза
гокжаева Е.Б.
Статья посвящена проблеме применения Третьего Энергопакета Евросоюза.
В ней рассматриваются особенности стратегии России на рынке энергоносителей ЕС, а также других поставщиков энергоносителей, связанных с «Третьим энергопакетом».
Представлена характеристика структуры потребления энергоносителей ЕС, основных и перспективных поставщиков, и стратегии взаимоотношений ЕС и России в сфере энергетики.
Систематизированы экспертные мнения относительно воздействия Третьего Энергопакета на взаимоотношения ЕС и России.
Ключевые слова: Третий Энергопаект; структура потребления энергоносителей ЕС; рынок энергоносителей.
Purpose
The purpose is to determine new energy strategy between the EU and Russia in connection with the operation of «Third energy package».
Materials and methods of research
The research is based on ideas presented by A. Konoplyanik, V. Esheev, A. Hitun, A. Kurdin etc. The information was gathered from literature, newspapers, the Internet and by interviewing practitioners, official materials like sessions of the Russian Federation State Council Presidium Energy, The Analytical Centre of Strategic Research in Energy under the Government of the Russian Federation etc. The study of specialized foreign information resources such as the Independent Oxford Institute for Energy Studies was particularly important for the author's formative approach. The following methods were used - analysis, analogy, method of aggregating, synthesis.
Research results and their interpretation
The third energy package of the EU is the final document which is intended to regulate long conversion in the field of gas industry, which began in 1998 with the adoption of the First and 2003 Second power packages. Three regulations and two directives are components of the third energy package that must create in Europe a high competition in the energy sector, and the latter, in turn, cause a reduction of prices for consumers. Another aim of the Package is the integration of fragmented energy markets of the European Union. Its essence is that it shared a vertically integrated company into components - the production, transportation and marketing. Thereby forbidding companies producing gas, as well as its suppliers, control transport networks. The third package of reforms is designed to separate the mining, sales and transportation material.
Formally the Third Directive was launched on 9 September 2009. All the member countries of the EU were obliged to amend their legis-
lation in accordance with the envisaged reforms. Allotted 11 months, none of them has done it yet. The European Commission accused the 18 EU countries in violation statutory obligations and filed lawsuits to the European court. But despite this the adaptation of national legislation to the Third Directive has not been resolved for 8 EU countries by January 2012. It has its pros and cons. The downside is that significantly increased period of uncertainty in the European gas market, respectively risks will be increased. Plus the fact that the possibilities of cooperation with the developers of the Third package temporarily expanded that is to consider fair and balanced account of the interests of all participants in the gas chain minimizing the risks and uncertainty for them. The European Commission planed to finalize the package and run a single EU gas market in 2014.
First of all developing the Third energy package Europe planed to reduce the monopoly in the gas sector in the national markets of member countries of the EU giants such as ENI, Ruhrgas, Gas de France. Since Gazprom has its share of contracts within the territory of the EU, it will have to organize its European business in a new way. It can't be both a supplier and the owner of its pipelines in Europe. Moreover, the Third package affects legislation of both existing and under construction pipelines (South stream).
Russian companies, however, consider that these innovations are targeted against Gazprom as the main supplier of gas to European countries. According to claims that Europe is laid down in the Third energy Package, Gazprom must give access other suppliers to its pipelines who want to supply gas to Europe. In case there is no reserve there must still be a part of the gas transmission facilities. For Russia
this situation is not encouraging, since in both cases there is a decrease in the profitability of projects. This situation threatens «Gazprom» big problems in relationships with partners and can also result in direct and indirect losses. A guarantee of return was the ownership of the pipeline, which, Europe wants to give to third intermediaries by the Third energy Package. Due to the inability to recoup costs without control of piping system no supplier will want to invest in business, without being sure that they would return to him.
Russia proceeds from the fact that «the rules of the Third energy Package should not apply retroactively to contracts which had been already been concluded before the decision was made on this package. In particular Russia needs to withdraw the operation and construction of its gas pipelines - Nord stream and South stream from the operation of this document provisions. Alexei Miller, head of Gazprom, said that under the terms of the Third energy Package, the company cannot use half of the capacity of the land branch pipelines Nord stream and South stream. Gazprom, giving the EU the necessary market volumes of natural gas, now can not rely on the use of adequate transport capacity to deliver these volumes to the delivery point where the gas changes the owner and joins in the internal European gas distribution network. As Alexey Miller stated the problem is that the relevant regulatory authorities give «to Gazprom» only half of the host construction facilities the company dealt with». He also pointed to the fact that Europe did not allow Gazprom to use all of the receiving power, even when there were no other applicants. Russia offers Europe to qualify the land parts of highways as a continuation of offshore pipelines Nord stream and South stream.
EU countries import about 60 percent of EU gas. The remaining 40 percent is extracted, in particular, in the UK, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany. However domestic gas reserves are diminishing rapidly. According to forecasts the dependence of EU on import of natural gas will grow.
According to the data contained in the Statistical report of the European Union of natural gas industry in 2010, Russia supplies about a quarter (22%) gas consumed in the EU, corresponding to 5.5% of all primary energy supply in the European Union. Over the last 20 years this figure has not changed. In the list of external suppliers Russia is followed by Norway, Algeria and Qatar which satisfy respectively, 19%, 9% and 7% of the requirements of the European Union in Gaza and are the largest after Russia's external gas suppliers to the EU.
European developed economies need the gas as a major energy like the air, there are a number of priority areas by which European countries get gas. At the moment there are four such directions. The gas supplied to Europe from Russia; the gas coming from North Africa (especially Algeria); the gas supplied via the TRANS-Caspian gas pipeline from Central Asia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan; and the gas going to the EU under the so-called «Mediterranean ring», i.e., from less significant than Algerian, African gas suppliers (Libya and Egypt). The last direction is the least important and rather desperate attempts of Europe, at least, to identify options to relieve dependence on existing suppliers, primarily from the Russian «Gazprom».
From the perspective directions of gas supplies stands out Iran, American LNG, which will hit the market in 2016, and by 2018 the
large amounts of LNG from other sources, primarily Australia, Mozambique will leave the market 1.
However, Europe increasingly consumes so-called liquefied natural gas (which is liquefied for transportation and delivery to the consumer again diluted) - now in the EU there are about two dozen regasification terminals with total capacity up to approximately 130 billion cubic meters of gas. Taking into consideration that Europeans are actively building these additional terminals and Qatar, the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, behaves in the local market increasingly, it can be stated that this direction is currently the most promising in terms of energy security 2.
The Interests of Russia
The construction of «South stream» is strategically important and should diversify the routes of Russian gas supplies to the West. In particular, the project will allow to deliver to Europe with 63 billion cubic meters of gas a year, representing about 15% of European demand bypass Ukraine. For the construction of the land portion agreements with Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Greece, Slovenia, Croatia and Austria were concluded. The estimated cost of the «South stream» - more than 15 billion euros, the project is scheduled to be fully operational by 2018. «Europe needs Russian gas» - said the President of the European Union of natural gas industry Jean-fran?ois Cirelli.
1 http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2431026
2 http://www.luxurynet.ru/world-market/7655.html
«Russia has a chance to challenge the Third energy package» says head of the international projects group of legal firm «Vegas-Lex» Yury Bortnikov. But it will all depend on how the introduction of new economic norms will be justified and recognized.
In European law there is the concept of public interest, says lawyer: «if it is given priority over the rights of companies, the Third energy package will remain in force».
But the demand to withdraw Russian projects from the application of the Third energy package experts believe to be wrong: «you cannot go into a frontal, Europe will not introduce the Third energy package for everyone, except Russia. Moscow's position should be more flexible».
In particular, according to experts, Russia could agree on the requirements of the energy package in terms of infrastructure, but require access to the end consumer. Gazprom currently supplies directly to European consumers only about 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas (for comparison, the total export volume to Europe - about 150 billion cubic meters), the other volumes go through intermediary sales structures. «But the final customer bring a much higher margin», - the expert specifies 3.
Briefly about the interests of other gas suppliers to Europe.
Iran is one of the largest holders of gas reserves, the 2nd largest in the world. «We are ready together with Russia in all areas to lead a coordinated effort», stressed the President of Iran 4.
3 http://www.vegaslex.ru/text/58488
4 http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/10/4/708868.html
During the high representative for foreign Affairs and security policy Catherine Ashton's a recent visit to Tehran oil Minister Namdar Zangeneh rejected Western proposals to replace Russian gas in the EU. Iran has put forward a Europe three conditions:
First, the lifting of all economic sanctions against Iran (and it is only 100 billion dollars of frozen Iranian money in Western banks).
Secondly, the financing of the construction of the pipeline structure of European investors (and these are substantial figures).
Third, Iran will retain the right to negotiate their pricing policy with Russia» 5.
Japan, having pulled the main volume of LNG from Europe after the accident at its nuclear plant, also informed the EU that it could reduce the demand for LNG in the coming years, if it increased coal use, energy efficiency and started stopped nuclear power plant.
canada. Canada's current and upcoming opportunities to deliver LNG to Europe because of the lack of gas are limited. Canada currently has no infrastructure to export. Currently Canada discusses 17 LNG projects, including one on the East coast of Canada, but most analysts believe that Canada will be able to export significant volumes of LNG at the end of the decade, says the EC.
Qatar: Qatar just during four years (2006-2010) has increased its sales in the EU in nine times. Experts in the energy sector in 20092010 have calculated that if the pipeline Qatar - Saudi Arabia - Jordan - Syria - Turkey was built that would entail huge financial and political risks for Russia, because its gas can not compete with Qatari due to the extremely low cost of the latter.
5 http://aftershock.su/?q=node/223420
The difficulty is that Qatari gas «contracted» until 2030. One of the main suppliers of gas to Europe - Norway with which the EU had high hopes to cover the potential shortage of gas, said that decisions on oil and gas are made by commercial enterprises regardless of government decisions. Norway stressed that most of its fields contained both oil and gas, therefore, for sustainable management of natural gas cannot be extracted separately from crude oil.
norway has indicated that in 2015 the country is expected to decline to 105 billion cubic meters of gas, compared to 106 billion cubic meters of gas in 2014, but the actual production will depend on various factors. During the winter period the use of the pipeline from Norway to Europe is usually close to capacity.
switzerland which is not a member of the European Union reported the European Commission that its gas production is in the country, but there is a diversified portfolio of suppliers. Zurich stressed the importance of modernization of the gas pipeline Transitgas (passes through its territory to supply the Dutch and Norwegian gas to Italy), to perform the reverse supply and expressed regret delaying the project.
The U.s. is interested in the construction of terminals in Europe, the construction of tankers, which requires a large amount of financial resources. In Europe these terminals are only in small parts of the countries. Germany, which seeks to abandon Russian gas, doesn't have them, but they are built in Belgium and the Netherlands.
However even for the German economy full transition to LPG can be unnecessarily expensive not to mention other countries. At the moment delivery of American LNG in the Old world is zero, although the
expansion plans, of course, are developed, and the first export terminal in the U.S. will be concluded no earlier than 2015. For the most daring predictions America would be able to compete in Europe with Russian gas not earlier than in 2016-2018.
One of the old ideas of getting rid of the arteries «Gazprom» is the launch of gas from the Shah Deniz field via the TRANS-Adriatic pipeline TAP through Northern Greece and Albania to southern Italy, where it will be docked in the pipeline with the gas supply network. It should be noted that the signing of the Azerbaijan gas agreement with European countries enables them to obtain new sources of raw material (about 2% of total consumption). A contract to export Azerbaijani gas to Europe via two pipelines was signed, the consortium under the management of the British company British Petroleum took over the construction.
Pipelines called TANAP and TAP will supply gas produced from the field «Shah Deniz 2 in Azerbaijan in the heart of Europe. Turkey hoping to enter the European Union stressed the importance of continued energy cooperation with the EU on the basis of mutual interests, attached great importance to this project and recently even suggested thatTurkmenistan and Pakistan use these pipelines to send their raw materials in Turkey and Europe.
Head of gas, coal and electricity, the International energy Agency (IEA) Laszlo Varro stated that Europe several decades would remain the largest consumer of Russian gas. Detaching Europe from Gazprom pipes with the help of the Third energy package is transformed from declarations into the political agenda. Politics wins over economic expediency.
conclusion
So strengthening the functioning of the Third energy package seriously complicates the relationship between the EU and Russia. In fact only the technical unavailability of the EU countries to transition to new energy sources and new supply schemes give the chance to Russia to defend their interests.
References / Список литературы
1. http://novostienergetiki.ru/tretij-energopaket-kak-klyuchevoj-faktor-otnoshenij-rossii-i-es/
2. http://www.south-stream-offshore.com/ru/proekt/postavki-energonositelei-v-evropu/
3. http://www.luxurynet.ru/world-market/7655.html
4. http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2431026
5. http://www.vegaslex.ru/text/58488
6. http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/10/4/708868.html
7. http://www.iran.ru/news/analytics/93067/Iran_sdelal_vybor_v_ polzu_Rossii
8. http://www.interfax.ru/business/402479
DATA ABoUT THE AUTHoR
Gokzhaeva elena Borisovna, Doctor of Economics
Rostov State University of Economics
69, B. Sadovaya st., Rostov-on-Don, Rostovskaya area, 344002, Russian Federation
e-mail: egokzhaeva@mail.ru
данные об авторе
гокжаева Елена Борисовна, доктор экономических наук
Ростовский государственный экономический университет (РИНХ)
ул. Большая Садовая, 69, г. Ростов-на-Дону, 344002, Российская Федерация
e-mail: egokzhaeva@mail.ru
