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THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Cebotari Svetlana, Bevziuc Victoria, Moldova State University, Moldova, Chisinau
E-mail: svetlana.cebotari@mail.ru
Abstract. The beginning of the 21st century remains marked by numerous security issues that the international Community is trying to fight by all means: poverty; economic stagnation; unequal distribution of resources and wealth; weak social structures; lack of good governance; systematic discrimination; oppression of minorities; destabilizing effect of migratory flows; ethnic antagonism; religious and cultural intolerance; social injustice; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In addition to the many problems that are present, the emergence of the Covid-19 crisis will mark for a long time the international security system.
This article aims to highlight the main repercussions of the Covid-19 crisis on international security.
Key words: pandemic, impact, state, political, Covid-19 crisis, international security.
The Covid-19 pandemic is increasingly taking the form of a hurricane which, after devastating part of China, affected Iran and then, with a new leap, Europe and the United States, expanded to the north, involving the Russian Federation, and in the Southern direction - the Mediterranean area, Africa and South America. We are present at the spread of the pandemic throughout the world. Its power has not yet been exhausted and it is not certain that containment measures will be able to contain their immediate effects on contaminated areas, they were adopted in a chaotic order by all States. International uncertainty has increased significantly recently [3]. The Covid-19 crisis was added in a deteriorating context of international relations and the ongoing tensions around the world. Global attention is inevitably absorbed by the scourge of the Covid-19 crisis, which acts as a global strategic shock [7] and has a massive impact on the international security [2].
The Covid-19 crisis, which began in December 2019, disrupted the international security system. However, in order to better understand the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the international security system, it appears necessary to refer to some of
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the sentences put forward by the experts in the field. Understanding the effects of the crisis on the international security system takes some time. According to Sh. Hunter, a professor at Georgetown American University, the nature of these effects depends on the current behavior of the States [8].
Similar views are also shared by Foreign Policy specialist M. Tafreshi. According to Tafreshi, the impact of Covid-19 on the international trends will have immediate medium- and long-term consequences, as well as will change to the national, regional and international aspects. The outbreak of coronavirus, according to Tafreshi's position, can also have the economic, social, political and even cultural consequences [8]. The same opinion is made by A. Marrone. By submitting analysis of the effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the international security system, A. Marrone believes that the economic crisis and recession in the West will have three important effects on the international security system: military, industrial and political-strategic
[5].
The Covid-19 pandemic will contribute to a new balance of power. Already before the emergence of the pandemic, the international system was moving toward a form of super polarized. But the way this new world system will develop is still to be seen. As Henry Kissinger pointed out, once the emergency situation is over, in order to avoid an escalation of chaos and uncertainty, the world will try to find a new balance. The West will have to be on the ground to avoid this risk, in a unified way, through its most important organizations - EU and NATO. We can finally add to these things that competition between the US and China, which started before the crisis, which could grow after the pandemic. In this respect, it is also essential at Euro-Atlantic level to define a clear common strategy [4]. If the coronavirus crisis has shown something clear, this "something" is that China is on its way to global power, while the US is retreating. The foreseeable world of the West as we know it from the Cold War period is a thing of the past. Many pillars that guarantee our security and prosperity will break. And there could be a great battle between China and the United States [7].
Starting from the impact of the Covid-19 on international security, the analysis by A. Manciulli merits attention on the military dimension. According to Manciulli position put forward by the Covid-19 crisis will condition the emergence of a less protected West. Although governments in Europe and North America are rightly investing huge resources to deal with health emergencies and, on a much larger scale of the socio-economic impact of quarantine, this will require more public debt in the near future, and subsequent cuts in government expenditure. Therefore, the defense budgets of the states will be subject to cuts. Depending on the size of the cuts, the military capabilities of NATO Member States - particularly those in Western Europe, where the perception of external threats is relatively low - would be more or less significantly damaged. In addition, following the pandemic, the allied armed forces could see their powers extended precisely to the field of defense, namely against biological threats. So, the allied States will be required to engage in more security activities with less financial resources.
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The Covid-19 global pandemic can have the economic consequences. From an economic perspective, the Covid-19 crisis will lead to a fall in GDP and an increase in public debt, as well as a sharp increase in inflation. If a medicinal product or vaccine is not created for up to six months, the economic situation of many countries, even in developed countries, will be in crisis [8].
Another impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on international security will make the weakening of industry, both at regional and international level. According to IMF estimates, total EU GDP will collapse by 6,1% over the course of 2020. A similar decrease to that of the EU will be present in the United States (-5,9%) and the United Kingdom (-6,5%). Unlike Western States, according to forecasts, China's GDP will have an increase 1,2. In the context of the Euro-Atlantic general recession, the aerospace, security and defense industries will suffer. First, this recession will be conditional on a sharp fall in orders from airlines in crisis. The industry sector will also suffer a slowdown in production due to quarantine, the likely crises of the related companies - especially the smallest ones - and the collapse of stock market prices, which will reduce the financial margin for maneuver. Under the conditions created, the United States will use strong support measures for its industry. The targeted support is also indispensable in Europe, where national industries form part of an articulated European network of cooperation, particularly in such sectors as aviation, naval, space, helicopter and missile construction industry. However, this is a difficult action for a Union where industrial defense policy requires constructive cooperation between Member States and with the European Commission [4].
The pandemic is damaging the national economies. The savings are shrinking; recovery times are uncertain to growth. The crisis triggers huge debts and demands for redeployment and different allocation of resources to States: physiological brakes on spending, which policy could be forced to satisfy at least in part.
The Covid-19 crisis is also having an impact on the populations. Different in terms of social conditions and political-institutional systems, conflict countries and fragile States - including Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan, Mali, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo - are united by economic fragility, political instability, institution failure, inadequate health systems. These are the places where the population and the institutional system is also the most vulnerable, as the other two data show: the dependence of public services on humanitarian agencies and the dependence of state funds on international donors [6].
The most exposed categories on the planet are refugees (26 million worldwide), internally displaced persons (41 million), forced into precarious and healthy housing, as well as migrants trapped in middle and sea countries. Most refugees live in low- or middle-income countries, those with the highest malnutrition rates and diseases that weaken the immune system. These are areas where the post-Covid economic downturn will be the most immediate-sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Asia [1].
In the conflict countries and fragile States with strong dependence on international donors and humanitarian agencies, the decline is on the rise. In the context of the Covid-19 crisis, food security is one of the most pressing problems. In
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the Great Horn of Africa, the coronavirus arrives simultaneously with the migratory lake roars, which threaten food security in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Sudan and South Sudan, where more than 25 million people are already very unsafe in food terms. In the Central Sahel, a "fragile area of excellence" that includes the border areas of Burkina Faso, Mali and western Niger, with the most vulnerable health system on the planet, 43.000 people died from the conflicts in 2019, and one million people have displaced themselves. The pre-Covid 19 humanitarian response plan was financed at only 10%. With the arrival of the coronavirus, there is a risk of a crisis going through another crisis, the World Food Program is denouncing. In Lake Chad basin, affected by Boko Haram's violence and not only by the effects of climate change and poverty, in 2020, it is estimated that more than 4 million people will be victims of food insecurity and 400.000 children risk dying due to malnutrition. David Beasley, executive director of the World Food Program, said that if the pandemic is not resolved, in 2020 there is a risk of doubling people threatened by food insecurity, with the number going from 135 to 265 million. Among the most affected countries, many are in conflict (including Yemen, Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, Syria, Nigeria, South Sudan) [1].
Thus, by submitting analysis of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the international security system, it becomes clear that this global situation will bring a number of changes and spill-over effects to our lives and international politics. With the emergence of the pandemic and what will follow, it will be clear that ensuring security is increasingly becoming a global problem, affecting our societies, politics, the economy, the environment, public health, the daily lives of all. Only with a joint effort, strengthening cooperation with all the countries with which we can share our values including security and safety we can face with this problem.
References:
1. Battiston G. Guerra, fame e pandemia:se il virus colpisce i piu fragili.- URL: https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/guerra-fame-e-pandemia-se-il-virus-colpisce -i-piu-fragili-26056
2. Guterres avisa de que la pandemia del coronavirus amenaza "la paz y la seguridad" internacionales. - URL: https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-guterres-avisa-pandemia-coronavirus-amenaza-paz-seguridad-internacionales-20200411042429.html
3. Les questions de sécurité : une préoccupation d'importance mondiale au XXIème siècle. - URL: http://www.irenees.net/bdf_fiche-analyse-539_fr.html
4. Manciulli A. La pandemia e i rischi per la sicurezza internazionale. - URL: https://europaatlantica.it/emergenza-coronavirus/2020/04/la-pandemia-e-i-rischi-per-la -sicurezza-internazionale/
5. Marrone A. Tre effetti del COVID-19 sulla sicurezza internazionale. - URL: https://www.affarinternazionali.it/2020/04/tre-effetti-del-covid-19-sulla-sicurezza-internazionale/
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6. Nones M. Covid-19 e (in)secureza internazionale. - URL: https:// www.affarinternazionali.it/2020/04/covid-19-e-insicurezza-internazionale/
7. Trebuie sä ne pregätim pentru al doilea val pandemic, declan§at de Guvernul Mondial. - URL: https://www.art-emis.ro/analize/trebuie-sa-ne-pregatim-pentru-al-doilea-val-pandemic-declansat-de-guvernul-mondial? fbclid=IwAR2KGHAWm11ujg_UQyS_ryNQ-i1TUGBrBqwdIayCXVx-ij9hVuvaUbBLb0E
7. Влияние коронавируса на международных процессов [Электронный ресурс]. -
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