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21УДК 338
ВЛИЯНИЕ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИИ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ
© 2019А.А. Сорочайкина*
Главная цель этой работы это изучение влияния изменений в числе населения на экономический рост, так же, как и детальный анализ одной страны с использованием исторических данных и работ выдающихся ученых. Все еще продолжаются споры о том, оказывает ли демографический рост положительное или отрицательное воздействие на экономику. С одной стороны, большая численность населения поощряет конкуренцию, ведущую к научно-техническому прогрессу. В то время как, с другой стороны, высокий уровень прироста населения в странах с низким и средним доходом может замедлить темпы развития. Демографический рост затрагивает многие другие аспекты социально-экономической жизни как экономическое неравенство, средняя продолжительность жизни населения, международная миграция и численность рабочей силы.
Ключевые слова: население, демографический рост, экономический рост, экономическое неравенство.
Introduction
The impact of population in the economic growth has been examined by many scientists. It appears that economists have developed arguments supporting either the idea that population growth slows growth in per capita Gross Domestic Product (hereinafter referred to GDP) or the idea that population growth stimulates greater economic growth. The main focus of this paper is going to be on GDP per capitaout-put as well due to the fact that kind of GDP can be divided into its demographic and economic components.
Studying the issue of the interdependence between economic growth and population one cannot ignore a world leading British economist Angus Maddison that compiled a comprehensive and extensive set of data on population, per capita GDP and GDP for almost all countries in the world from 1 to 2008 A.D. [7].The Maddison Project was introduced in March 2010 by a group of close colleagues of Angus Maddison after his death in April 2010.Theirin-tention was and still is to support an effective way of cooperation between scientists to continue Maddison's work on measuring economic indicatorsof different countries and various
periods.Another statistical source, which is used in calculation reported in this paper, is the World Bank. It is the worlds largest development institution. It publishes an online considerable database including population and real GDP-from 1960 up to now for the majority of countries and world regions.Thinking about how to analyze all this extensive information in this study, we have come to the idea to group several countries according to their total territory. So average annual compound growth rates for population and real per capita GDP in various countries are shown in Table 1.
Average annual population growth over this period was about 1% but has varied considerably across regions and over time due to migration and wars on different territories. As for GDP per capita, we can see a significant rise in all countries.
We should also mention that the population size and density of the majority of the developed societies is bigger now than it was in the past on the same territory. This phenomenon is called demographic transition in sociology. The essence of it is that in pre-industrial society both death and birth rates are high and roughly in balance. But then mortality rate be-
* Сорочайкина Анна Андреевна ([email protected]) - студентка, Самарский государственный экономический университет, 443090 РФ, Самара, ул. Советской Армии, д. 141.
Table 1: Rates of Population and Per Capita GDP in different countries in 1990 and 2016
Country Population 1900 Per capita GDP 1900 Population 2016 Per capita GDP 2016 Current area, km2
Canada 5457 4924 36437 43745 998467
United States of America 76391 6252 324656 53015 9833516
China 400000 776 1372860 12569 9598094
Argentina 4693 5051 43887 18875 2780400
Mexico 13607 2169 119252 16133 1964375
France 40598 4731 66957 37124 551500
Japan 44103 1856 126310 37465 377915
Hungary 7127 4094 9822 23279 93028
Jordan 300 1950 7525 11529 89342
Singapore 215 2780 5782 65729 65610
Source: own calculation based on The Maddison Project that is built on Angus Maddison's original dataset by Jutta Bolt, Robert Inklaar,Jan Luiten van Zanden and Herman de Jong[8].
gins to fall. It is enough to say that three hundred years ago our average life expectancy was about 30-40 years while now it is well above 70. It became possible due to improving sanitation, medical care, quality of food and access to better living conditions. As the fertility rate remains high by inertia for some time, during which death rate is still low, it leads to rather fast population growth.For example, at the end of XVIII century the population of England and Wales was 5.2 million, while in the middle of 1980's that number had reached 56 million.
Evidently, there is more than 10-fold increase in the relatively short historical period. If in 1750, there were 35 live births per 1,000 of the population, with 30 deaths per 1,000, in 1950 figures significantly decreased and became 16 births and 12 deaths per 1,000 of the population [10].
Analysis of GDP changes in Russia
As it can be noticed, Russia was not presented in the Table 1. The state of nation in the periods of Russian Empire, of the USSR and of
Figure 1: Line graph of GDP of Russia as a percentage of US GDP
modern Russia must all be taken into consideration for a full analysis.
Russian economist Andrew Illarionov has conducted a study on the relationship between GDP in Russia and the USA. And he has also presented a line graph that is showing Russian GDP as a percentage of American GDP from 1885 to 2006 (rate of the ruble against the dollar is of 2008 year) [5].
There was a decline during the Great Famine of 1891-1892. The famine caused about 500 thousand deaths.Another major famine happened during the collectivization (author's note: collectivizationis a consolidation of individual peasant farms into collective ones) in 19321933. The famine affected more than 40 million people. There was significant migration both domestically and internationally addition to direct and indirect deaths connected with the famine.
The graph shows that all Russian revolutions at the beginning of the twentieth century happened after a drop in annual growth of real per capita GDP caused by wars and consequently by a grave deterioration in all aspects of people s lives. GDP per capita fell to less than the rate of 1905 and this became one of the reasons of subsequent revolution of 1917. The country was in the condition of the deep economic and social crisis. That negatively affected the general well-being of the population. The country emerged from crisis with internal contradictions.
The line graph shows that in the period of 1921-1922 the percentage of Russian GDP (1012%) to the US one was the lowest during the entire studied period. For example, GDP per capita in 1921 according to The Maddison Project was 1131 million US dollars.
Russia (in the form of the USSR) compensated the losses, which included losses in revolutions, World War I and Civil War, in the next few years. The country recovered its industrial potential by 1928, achieved the level of 1918 and continued growing.
Next significant decline predictably was during the World War II. All resources and forces were directed towards consolidation of peace
on the territory of the Soviet Union and GDP of the country became 16-17% to the US GDP. It should be noted that the USA went through the war as well but there were no military actions on its territory.
It must be said that an oil boom that the country experienced in the 1970s is shown as the peak of the line graph. During these years Russia has reached the best ratio in per capita GDP as percentage to the United States of America in 43% (even surpassing the record of 1887).
Then, during several years after war, it recovered and reached the point of 33%. We must mention the natural fertility growth provided by the post-World War II baby boom in Western Europe, United States and Canada (baby booms are characterized by relatively short periods of increased fertility, which can lead to greater population growth). After a short growth, Russian GDP remained constant until Mikhail Gorbachev came to power. The graph shows clear stagnation. GDP stopped increasing after a short period of using traditional economic practices during which the last projects of Stalin's era have been implemented. Russia no longer outraced the USA and after 19781979 turned out to be off track.
We must mention that many changes in the cultural and social spheres of Russian society such as education and health care also cause direct developments in business. As we know, finance of the companies, organizations and firms are the most essential pillars in the coun-trys financial system, so the process of consolidation gains and production of successful transformation is impossible without taking into consideration needs of people. Therefore, every step-in reforming should be correlated with state of population, excluding deterioration in its living conditions and financial situation [14].
Comparing GDP of the Republics of the USSR, or rather studying what contribution to the whole country's GDP made each of them the year before the dissolution of the USSR in 1990. Also noteworthy is that, the 1990s were a particularly difficult period for Russia where population declines and low growth of per cap-
Table 2: GDP of the Republics of the USSR in 1990
Republic of the USSR 1990, % Republic of the USSR 1990, °%
1 Russia 60,33 9 Turkmenistan 1
2 Ukraine 17,8 10 Latvia 1
3 Kazakhstan 6,8 11 Estonia 0,7
4 Belarus 2,7 12 Moldova 0,7
5 Uzbekistan 2 13 Tajikistan 0,6
6 Azerbaijan 1,9 14 Kyrgyz Republic 0,5
7 Lithuania 1,7 15 Armenia 0,4
8 Georgia 1,2
Source: I. Kalabekov[6].
ita GDP combined to generate negative average annual economic growth.
Russia's participation was more than all of other countries put together, although its population is also higher. At the same time, Ukraine and Kazakhstan also had rather high share of GDP while other countries had much less.To obtain a more complete picture let us take into consideration GDP of the countries of the former USSR in 2017 and compare it to GDP of 1990.
Russia remains an undeniable leader. Now its gross domestic product is even more in nominal terms than was GDP of the whole Soviet Union in 1990. Kazakhstan is accounted for the second largest share instead of Ukraine. Armenia that was on the last place, now is in the twelfth, and Tajikistan decrease from 13 place to 15.
To sum up, drawing on the example of Russian GDP it can be concluded that economic situation in the country is inextricably linked to the situation of the population.
Other theories
We should also examine in this paper several theories of outstanding scientists that are connected with the issue of relationship between economic growth and population growth, in particular, the number of inhabitants. For example, Thomas Malthus, English scientist, who developed one of the best-known theories, which says that population growth has a negative effect on well-being. Addressing the problem of limited resources, he claimed that population tends to grow more rapidly than food supplies and due to that, it is requested to keep the constant number of people with the amount of available food. On the basis of this theory we can say that the more numerous becomes the quantity of the people, than lower descends the average income [9].
The Malthus's views on the problem of the effects of population growth on socio-economic welfare were revived by a Nobel prize-winning German-Jewish physician and scientist Paul Ehrlich [4] in the end of the 20th century when
Table 3: GDP of the Countries of the Former USSR
Country 2017, million Country 2017, million
1 Russian Federation 1577524.15 9 Latvia 30264.45
2 Kazakhstan 159406.93 10 Estonia 25921.08
3 Ukraine 112154.19 11 Georgia 15159.28
4 Belarus 54442.37 12 Armenia 11536.59
5 Uzbekistan 48717.69 13 Moldova 8128.49
6 Lithuania 47168.30 14 Kyrgyz Republic 7564.74
7 Turkmenistan 42355.43 15 Tajikistan 7145.70
8 Azerbaijan 40747.79
Source: World Bank data [19].
population growth rates reached very high levels, mainly in low-income countries. He and his colleagues considered that both population growth and economic growth needed to be cut back or completely eliminate to avoid crisis. Others disagreed. They believed that fears about population growth were overblown. They assumed that population growth would stimulate technological innovations and that would allow food production to evolve with the growing number of people [3].
Each of these controversial theories has its own proof and statistical basis provided by different scientists from various countries (R. Ban-erjee (2012) - Australia; H. K.Tumwebaze and A. T.Ijjo (2015) - Africa region; S.K. Sethy, H. Sahoo (2015) - India) have led several analysts to consider the possibility that the impact of population growth on per capita GDP may not be identical for different countries and regions.
In the era of scientific and technological revolution and changes in productive demographic segments of society, a person becomes a factor of economic growth and development. The efficiency of using core resources is increasingly dependent on whether workers have moral and material support and encouragement in achievement of high results.
The theory of "human capital" has attached great significance as it allows to study different economic relationships and detect the effectiveness of investment into human capital in an overall perspective. Nowadays human capital indicates the knowledge, skills, competencies and other attributes embodied in individuals or groups of individuals acquired during their life and used to produce goods, services or ideas in market circumstances.
Credit of advancing this idea must go to famous American economist, Nobel Prize winner, Theodore Schultz [12] and the theoretical model was built in the book "Human capital", which was written by Gary Becker in 1964.Gary Becker was an American economist and empiricist. He was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1992. This book became the theoretical base of all later researchers in this sphere [2]. Further important were
the works of such economists as Yoram Ben-Porat, Edward Lazear, Richard Layard, Sherwin Rosen, Finis Welch ("The Structure of Wages" with Kevin Murphy (2003)and others.
Conclusion
During the work on this paper we understood that even though there is a great number of different perspectives on the issue of the relationship between population and economic growth, there is an overwhelming agreement that number of inhabitants and growth in per capita output are not independent.More than that, population growth must have qualitative nature as well as physical one in order to be the most optimal. It should be remembered that the socio-economic situation of one region just like the socio-economic situation of the whole world depends very much on the particular circumstances such as the age structure of the population, possibility and quality of education, health care, access to advanced technology, political conditions,percent of the internal as well as external migration and consequently "brain drain".
References
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4. Ehrlich, P. (1968). The population bomb. New York, NY: Ballantine Books.
5. Illarionov A. (2007) A premonition of a disaster. Msc, Independent Press Center. Retrieved from http://www.iea.ru/econom_bolesn.php
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Поступила в редакцию 17.09.2019 г.
ЭКСПЕРТ:
ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА
2019. № 1 (1)
JEL Codes: A11, J10
THE IMPACT OF POPULATION CHANGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
© 2019А.А. Sorochaikina*
The main purpose of this paper is to study the impact of population change on economic growth as well as to analyze in more detail a state of one nation throughout the years using historical data and works of distinguished scientists. The debate whether population growth has beneficial or adverse effect on economic growth is still in process. On the one side a high population encourages competition that spread scientific progress, while on the other side large population growth in low- and middle-income countries can slow its development. Population growth affects many other aspects of economic and social life such as economic inequality, the median age of population, international migration and the size of a labor force.
Keywords: population, population growth, economic growth, economic inequality.
* Sorochaikina Anna Andreevna ([email protected]) - BA Student, Faculty of International Economics, Samara State University of Economics, 443090 Samara, Russia.
Received for publication on 20.09.2019
