CC BY
0THE IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE EDUCATION SYSTEM
Doctorant, Bekmurod ELMONOV National University of Uzbekistan ORCID:0000-0002-9444-458X
Abstract. Today, in the educational system, the impact of artificial intelligence on the productivity of students, professors and management staff is becoming increasingly relevant. Based on this, the article compares the stages of the industrial revolution, their characteristics, and the differences in qualification requirements for the workforce. Indicators of the impact of digital technology and the fourth industrial revolution on the labor market are grouped. In the fourth industrial revolution, the automation of many activities is based on the need to separate labor productivity from total productivity, which can increase wealth, income and employment from labor. Four stages of the artificial intelligence wave, i.e. internet artificial intelligence, business artificial intelligence, data reliability-based artificial intelligence and autonomous artificial intelligence, have been explored.
The abilities that students should acquire during the educational process - the basic knowledge necessary for students' daily practice, the skills necessary for solving complex tasks, the qualities of exposure to external influences - are grouped, and the use of artificial intelligence technology in their formation shows the need for an intellectual education system, agent technology, digital data formation technology, was found to cause. Statistical analysis of the distribution of students in Uzbekistan by fields of education, including the humanitarian field, social field, economy and law, production and technical field, agriculture and water management, health care and social security, service field, the increase in the number of specialists who graduated from higher education institutions in the fields of education done. In 2015-2022, the relationship between the change in the number of graduates per teacher and the change in the unemployment rate in the higher education system of Uzbekistan was analyzed based on the regression model. The advantages of using artificial intelligence technology in increasing the labor productivity of teachers in higher education organizations are highlighted. Requirements for increasing the employability of graduates of higher education, that is, taking into account various factors that lead people to be considered more or less employable than others, are defined.
At the same time, it has been analyzed that the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies into the labor activity will lead to the release of employees from certain tasks, fill the employee's work and change their tasks and require them to change or increase their qualifications in order to adapt to it. As a result of the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies, workers are required to adapt to changes in tasks, the emergence of new ones, as well as to solve the issues of job loss or transition to a new job.
INTRODUCTION
Today, the use of safe, effective and widely available technologies in the process of teaching and learning increases the effectiveness of education. Teachers are increasingly using Al services in their daily lives. Including translation based on mobile applications, checking spelling errors, data scanning and so on. The number of downloads of artificial intelligence applications that can be used in the educational process to improve work efficiency is increasing. Searching, collecting, selecting, enriching and adapting data for use in the course of the lesson. The use of artificial intelligence in the educational system has been researched by the scientific community for more than 30 years. The use of artificial intelligence technologies in the educational process can cause various risks. For example, the risk of students turning their Al-generated development into their own independent development. Increasing unfairness among users during the integration of artificial intelligence in the educational system.
However, in the education system, Al can serve educational priorities better, at scale, and at lower cost. In times of pandemic, incomplete education can be acquired on the basis of this technology. With the help of artificial intelligence, it can provide materials based on the student's opportunity, need and potential. Artificial intelligence gives teachers the ability to individually approach students who are absent or lagging behind.
The Center for Knowledge of the Future of Work has predicted the creation of about 21 million new jobs in the coming years, creating the necessary skill requirements for the implementation of the work of the future. The World Economic Forum and the British Council in the UAE have identified a set of employability skills that university graduates should have by 2030. Based on such reports, students' employability skills are often seen as an effective tool for securing employment in future labor markets. From this point of view, this article highlights the need to group indicators of the impact of digital technology and the fourth industrial revolution on the labor market, to determine the difference between general productivity and individual labor productivity under the influence of production automation, and to analyze the change of labor tasks in the wave of artificial intelligence. The grouping of abilities that students should acquire during the educational process, the use of artificial intelligence technology in their formation has been scientifically and theoretically studied.
LITERATURE REVIEW
A new revolution in education may take place, according to research on the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity in the educational system. According to several economic reports (World Economic Forum, McKinsey, etc.), the "fourth industrial revolution", i.e., advanced digitalization and automation of work, is expected to have a great impact on the career and experience of the individual in the future. This, in turn, can destroy millions of jobs and professions (Hirschi, 2018). In addition, top technologists such as Stephen Hawking and Bill Gates, business and industry experts have warned that the unemployment rate will increase in the future due to the increased reliance on smart technologies. In addition, by 2025, a third of existing occupations will disappear as a result of the significant development of artificial intelligence (Brougham & Haar, 2017).
The fourth industrial revolution represents a set of technologies that shape the connection between the physical, electronic and biological spheres. As noted by the World Economic Forum, the fourth industrial revolution has begun since the 21st century and is changing its shape with various aspects such as mobile internet, powerful sensors, artificial intelligence and machine learning (Schwab, 2016). Accordingly, the fourth industrial revolution is known for its radical changes based on technological drivers. The fourth industrial revolution is the result of the development of the previous three industrial revolutions. Fears that manufacturing automation will cut jobs go back to the first industrial revolution. In 1930, J.M. Keynes expressed his opinion about technological unemployment and said: "By 2030, we can find a new subject for labor as a result of increasing the speed of labor use based on finding ways to save the use of means of production, and we will achieve a working time of 15 hours per week. "Therefore, scientists at the concern are currently researching machines, robots, and artificial intelligence. It takes 200 years to start this process. Because of the exponential growth of technology, MIT scientists Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue in their book The Second Machine Age that we need to learn and adapt to how to work with and even compete with machines before it's too late.
According to Marin Ford's 2015 publication The Rise of the Robots, while machines have so far been a means of increasing labor productivity, in the future machines may become workers and replace workers. According to these two views, technological progress leads to uneven income distribution, job polarization, and increased skill requirements for the workforce. Currently, this process is reflected in income inequality, a decrease in real wages, and a decrease in the share of income from workers to capital, and this is expected to continue. According to other researchers, this did not affect employment. A reduction in employment in agriculture leads to the creation of new jobs in other sectors. Manufacturing automation takes two forms: substitution and complementarity.
In addition, in this process, employers are concerned about the lack of employability skills of candidates, and this is recognized as a global problem. There are differences in perceptions of employability skills between higher education students and employers. The table below shows the views on employability (Table 1). According to the given definitions, the ability of graduates of higher education to get a job in the digitization of the economy means getting a job through finding a new job, using the psychological construction that incorporates individual characteristics in the selection process, and optimal use of competencies.
Table 1.
Theoretical views on employability of labor force
№ Authors The essence
1. Hillage and Pollard, (1998) "Ability to get an initial job, keep a job and, if necessary, find a new job"
2. Brown et al. (2003) "Relative chances of getting and keeping different types of work and employment"
3. Fugate et al., (2004) "A psychological construct that embodies individual characteristics that develop adaptability, behavior, and affect and improve the individual work interface."
4. Sanders and Grip (2004) "The desire to be attractive in the labor market and to maintain their competitiveness."
5. Heijde and Van der Heijden (2006) "The ability to get a job or be self-employed, to be permanently employed through the optimal use of competences."
6. Pool and Sewell (2007) "Employability is the acquisition of a set of skills, knowledge, understanding and personal qualities that guarantee and increase the chances of a person choosing occupations
7. Fugate and Kinicki (2008) "A set of individual differences that force employees to actively adapt to their work and career environment."
8. Bridgstock (2009) "Adequate preparation to enter and remain employable, including general and discipline-specific skills, a range of skills for self- and career management."
In research on the impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity, innovative technologies, including artificial intelligence and robotics, are being researched on the impact of population employment, increase in labor productivity, population income and their distribution. According to modern theories, skill acquisition based on technological innovation leads to wage polarization and a higher labor market demand for highly skilled workers than for unskilled workers (Autor et al. 2003; Barbieri et al. 2020). Recent advances in artificial intelligence technology and its widespread use have strengthened the possibility of reversing the trend of persistently low labor productivity and revitalizing the economy. Artificial intelligence has the potential to improve productivity in a number of ways, including the ability to reduce uncertainties due to increased accuracy of forecasts (Agrawal et al. 2019a). While there have been dramatic technological improvements in artificial intelligence in recent years, productivity growth continues to be low, and improvements in worker skills will take time to develop complementary inventions, reorganize businesses, and spread throughout the economy (Brynjolfsson et al. 2019). In addition, the effectiveness of research on various industries, firms and products is decreasing, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to find new ideas. Manufacturing automation and artificial intelligence are causing income inequality and the division of labor to decrease.
METHODOLOGY
Research and statistical analysis of existing scientific studies on the impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity, determine the strength of the correlation of factors and compare them economically. Logical thinking, scientific abstraction, information grouping, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction methods are widely used.
RESULTS
10,000 years ago, human settlement and domestication of animals is the first radical change. This is what we call the agricultural revolution. In the next 10 thousand years, in the second half of the 18th century, the first industrial revolution took place and lasted almost 3 centuries. Accelerated by social and technological change. At the end of the 19th century, the second industrial revolution occurred. Manufacturing companies began to attract material capital to increase production volume. The demand for highly skilled workers has increased. By the 20th century, the demand for master's degrees
in higher education steadily increased. Workers felt they were in the middle of a "race between education and technology" (Claudia Goldin 2014). This also applies to the current situation. The 1960s saw the start of the third industrial revolution, the computer or digital revolution. He transformed the nature of work, formed a system of remote work, reduced the employment of the population in the production sector and increased the employment in the service sector. The demand for highly skilled workers has become more important than before. In the last 10 years, we are entering the fourth industrial revolution, that is, the orientation of man from a higher intellectual aspect to strong production.
The fourth industrial revolution is based on artificial intelligence, machine learning, 3D printing, intranet tools and genetic engineering. In Germany, the fourth industrial revolution began in 2011 with the creation of global value chains and smart factories. In general, it can be seen that the evolution of society from agriculture to today's capitalist system. Work force can be defined as a steady transition from physical activity to mental activity. In this process, it is necessary to assess to what extent the simultaneous occurrence of technological progress and productivity growth will affect national wealth, unemployment and social inequality, as in previous revolutions. We believe that productivity will increase, creating new jobs in priority sectors will prevent unemployment from rising. Nevertheless, the fact that the development and diffusion of innovations is higher compared to the previous ones makes it difficult to forecast social and economic acceleration. For example, today's most successful companies—Uber, Airbnb, or Alibaba—have become ubiquitous in the past. The iPhone company was founded 10 years ago, and in 2016 alone, its number exceeded 2 billion globally. The fourth industrial revolution is built on the digital revolution, affects all sectors, continues to spread widely in the social, economic and business spheres, bringing about the convergence of different technologies. The whole system will be transformed, industries, business models and social structures will change. This development ensures that the productivity is higher than ever before. Productivity, which can be increased through the automation of many activities in terms of wealth, income, and employment, should be distinguished from total productivity.
In this process, a rethinking of the function of society is required. In the past years, labor productivity has increased based on compensating workers, and in the past 30 years, it has been based on increasing the income of shareholders and business owners. For example, in the G20 countries, since 1999, productivity has increased by more than 18 percent, while real wages have increased by only 5 percent. Drivers causing technological change are divided into: physical, digital and biological driver groups. The physical driver field includes the latest innovations, such as vehicle automation, the invention of new materials, and 3D printers. In the development of production, the increase of perfect robots also has a high place. Globally, there are currently about 1.5 million robots, and this number is expected to reach 25 million by 2025, according to McKinsey. Increasing robots' mental abilities makes them more dexterous and improves perceptual abilities.
At the same time, the "Sharing Economy" is connecting people and their valuables on the basis of various platforms, transporting them online from one place to another using Blockchain technology, consuming products and services, and the volume of bitcoin financial transactions is increasing. In general, four stages of the artificial intelligence wave will emerge: internet artificial intelligence, business artificial intelligence, data reliability-based artificial intelligence, and autonomous artificial intelligence. These four types of artificial intelligence have different strengths, spread across different sectors, and its wave will permeate our way of life. The biological driver covers both medicine and synthetic biology, including writing the organism's DNA. As a result of the fourth industrial revolution, the demand for middle-skilled workers will disappear and the demand for ICT skills, social intelligence and creativity will increase. Digitization of the economy and the fourth industrial revolution are being manifested in various ways in the economy and its components (Table 2).
Table 2
The impact of digital technology and the fourth industrial revolution on the labor market
Appearances of the digital revolution: Appearances in the economy: Appearances in the labor market:
The emergence of large-scale Increasing the share of the digital The emergence of new
innovative technologies in various fields;
Formation of new markets as a result of highly innovative processes;
Global spread of digital technologies, globalization; Spiritual, political, social, economic, etc. transformation; The expansion of the use of Internet networks, artificial intelligence, robots, big data technology, etc_
economy in the economy; Emergence of new ways and technologies in production of goods and provision of services; Emergence of new business models based on digital technologies;
An increase in the service sector before the decrease in the share of industry and agriculture in GDP; The emergence of large transnational digital corporations, digital platforms
professions and the disappearance of old ones; Increasing polarization in the labor market;
Increased demand for highly qualified workers; Transformation of forms of labor organization, emergence of new forms of employment;
Increased labor productivity
in the digital sector;
The threat of job automation.
Source: Arangin V.V. The influence of the work values of multigenerational workers on employment and effective employment policies. Abstract dissertations for the academic degree of candidate of economic sciences. Author. -Tomsk: 2022. -22 C.
In this view, the fourth industrial revolution and digitization are changing the structure of networks, the business models of companies and the labor market. The demand for workers' skills is increasing, the nature and nature of work, ways of organizing work are changing. Communication between employers and employees creates new opportunities and various threats. There is inconsistency in definitions of employability in terms of the various factors that lead people to be considered more or less employable than others. Understanding, skills and performance, career development learning, ownership of practice, level of know-how, general skills and emotional intelligence, self-confidence and self-esteem are covered.
RESULTS
If in the previous industrial revolutions there was a period of achievement based on adaptation of the employment support system to increase the qualification of the labor force, the implementation of such a choice in the fourth industrial revolution is considered controversial. Demographic, socioeconomic and technological changes and the emergence of different occupational families are complicating the process. Employment in architecture and engineering and computer and math occupations is expected to increase, while employment in manufacturing, office and administrative occupations is expected to decrease. The organization of the educational process based on new technologies increases students' interest in social and emotional knowledge. There is a need to provide more than traditional education to students of the 21st century. Finding a solution to the problem, communication and collaboration skills on the basis of social and emotional knowledge is highly important. Trilling and Fadell divide the skills needed in the 21st century into 3 groups: knowledge acquisition and innovation ability; possession of digital skills; occupational exposure and life skills (Trilling and Fadel 2009). In our opinion, the acquisition of skills and abilities of students in the conditions of the digital economy will increase their competitiveness in the labor market:
Skills and competencies needed in the 21st century
Basic knowledge (Basic knowledge necessary for students' daily practice)
1. Literacy;
2. Ability to work with numbers;
3. Scientific literacy;
4. ICT literacy;
Competencies (Students' skills needed to solve complex tasks)
1. Critical thinking/problem solving;
2. Creativity;
Uniqueness (Qualities of exposure to external influences)
1. Curiosity;
2. Initiative;
3. Perseverance;
4. Flexibility;
Figure 1.16 qualities students of the 21st century should have
Source: Prepared based on Future of education and skills 2030: Conceptual learning framework. OECD. EDU/EDPC(2018)45/ANN2 acocufla TaMëp/iaHflM
In 2015-2022, the number of people studying in higher education institutions increased by 210.3 per 10,000 populations in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The humanitarian sector accounted for 103.3%, the production and technical sector for 45.2%, and the social sector, economy and law for 27.3%. The areas with the least increase in coverage were agriculture and water management by 9.5, and services by 10.2 (Table 3).
Table 3.
Students studying in higher education institutions by fields of education, thousand people
Field of education 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Per 10,000 people in 2015-2022
Humanitarian field 110,2 108,4 124,0 166,7 213,2 268,6 380,0 489,8 103,3
Social sphere, economy and law 29,9 28,8 29,7 32,5 44,2 71,4 101,0 130,2 27,3
Production and technical field 75,0 78,8 87,7 97,8 108,6 134,3 189,9 244,8 45,2
Agriculture and water management 19,9 20,9 23,9 24,4 26,6 30,7 43,4 56,0 9,5
Health and social security 19,0 20,1 20,5 24,4 29,4 40,3 57,0 73,4 14,7
Services sector 10,4 11,2 11,9 14,4 19,1 26,3 37,1 47,9 10,2
Total 264,3 268,3 297,7 360,2 441,0 571,5 808,4 1042,1 210,3
Source: calculated based on the data www. Stat.uz In 2015-2022, the number of specialists who graduated from higher education increased by 6.3%, which increases the competitiveness of labor resources and the labor potential. Specialists who graduated from higher education institutions in the fields of education increased by 12.5 thousand people in the humanitarian sector, and its share in the general fields decreased by 3.2 percent, while in the production and technical field it increased by 6.7 thousand people, and its share in the general fields decreased by 5 decreased by 9 percent. The same trend was observed in agriculture and water management, that is, although it increased by 1.4 thousand, its share in the total weight decreased by 1.7 percent.
2.8 thousand graduates in the social, economic and legal fields, and its share in the general fields also increased by 9.9 percent. The number of graduates has also increased in other fields. The number of graduates in production and technical field increased by 3.4 thousand people. Nevertheless, within the framework of general fields, the main share of graduates in the humanities field (-46.3% in 2015, 43.1% in 2012), Social field, economy and law (-13.1% in 2015, 23.1% in 2022 %) and production and technical sectors (-24.9% in 2015,18.9% in 2022). The number of specialists who graduated from higher education institutions in the fields of education per 10,000 population increased in all fields (Table 4).
In Uzbekistan, large-scale work is being carried out to introduce modern organizational and legal mechanisms to ensure employment of the population, to train the unemployed, to retrain and improve the skills of workers, to reduce the unemployment rate in the regions, to reduce illegal labor migration and informal employment. According to the analysis of the relationship between the number of graduates per professor and the unemployment rate in 2015-2022, there is a correlation between the labor productivity of professors and the unemployment rate (figure2).
Table 4.
The number of specialists who graduated from higher education institutions by field of education
Field of education 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Per 10,000 people in 2015-2022
Humanitarian field 30,7 29,0 29,2 28,4 28,4 40,5 42,3 44,4 2,7
Social sphere, economy and law 8,7 8,4 8,0 8,1 8,1 8,8 18,2 23,7 3,9
Production and technical field 16,5 16,4 19,1 19,9 21,6 22,3 22,9 19,5 0,2
Agriculture and water management 4,5 4,5 5,0 5,5 5,5 5,3 7,2 5,2 0,0
Health and social security 3,3 3,2 3,5 5,5 4,3 4,1 6,9 5,6 0,5
Services sector 2,6 2,6 2,7 2,8 2,9 2,9 5,7 4,6 0,5
Total 66,3 64,1 67,4 70,3 70,8 83,9 103,2 102,8 7,8
Source: calculated based on the data www. Stat.uz
According to regression analysis, one percent increase in the number of graduates per unit of teachers reduces the unemployment rate by 0.27 percent with a probability of 0.95 percent (general equation y = -0.27081X + 6.78378; t-value t -1.98801 TeHr. p-value .026391. According to the result, the relationship between these two indicators is significant, that's p < .05. Here: y- unemployment rat; X- the number of graduates per professor-teacher) 14,0 12,0
8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0
10,5 9,6
9,3 9,0 8,9
4 9 c n 5,4 5,0 5.8 >
4,9 4,9 5,1 5,2 5,2
3,5 3,1 3,3 3,9 2,7 2,6 2,9 2,7 2,7 2,7 2,6 2,3 2,6 2,8 2,5
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Figure 2. Changes in the number of graduates per professor and unemployment rate in Uzbekistan's higher education system in 2015-2022 Source: calculated based on the data www. Stat.uz CONCLUSION
The introduction of artificial intelligence can lead to the release of employees from certain tasks. Reorganization of job tasks (adding some tasks and eliminating others) instead of eliminating the entire job completely, the tasks in the job can be rearranged. In this case, artificial intelligence will eventually complement the work of the employee. In some areas, it replaces not the entire profession, but only a part of the tasks in each profession. Most of the professions that can be replaced by Al are monotonous, repetitive, mechanical and rule-based. In contrast, humans are naturally creative, interpersonal, flexible, agile, and have intuitive decision-making skills, which still have advantages over artificial intelligence. The teaching profession is considered to be very complex and involves making thousands of decisions during the day. Provides knowledge, ensures students' activity during classes, works with students outside of classes and conducts administrative activities. According to research, teachers work 50 hours a week and spend more than half of that time interacting with students. Artificial intelligence increases the productivity of teachers by saving time spent on administrative and repetitive tasks. When using the artificial intelligence model in the educational system, it is necessary to apply it based on the priority goals of education, taking into account the interaction of education and practice. It is important to ensure information security, opportunities to eliminate inconsistencies in the model, secure and efficient system operation, and set the norm for alternation between man and device.
The use of artificial intelligence technologies to increase labor productivity in the educational system creates the need to:
Improvement of intellectual education system. The intelligent teaching system is based on cognitive sciences and is a type of technology for effective training of students, making full use of the technical achievements of artificial intelligence technology, pedagogical psychology, and informatics. Reduces the academic load of requirements, increases the effectiveness of teaching teachers and, as a result, increases the academic activity of students.
The intellectual learning system includes a teacher module, an expert module, a student module, and human-computer interaction modules.
Coordination of agent technology. Agent technology refers to software that simulates human behavior and human interactions and operates independently according to the perceived environment and provides appropriate services.
An agent can be called a subject of active intelligent activity with the ability to process information. It should have a perceptron that interacts with the outside world, an information processor that processes and stores information, an effector that affects the environment, and a communication mechanism that has internal and external effects. Currently, in the field of artificial intelligence, many traditional artificial intelligence technologies are combined with agent technology.
Implementation of digital data formation technology in the fields of education. Numerical data generation involves the process of finding and analyzing large amounts of data to develop forecast indicators.
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