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39THE GROWTH OF EXTREMISM AND THE FACTOR OF “INTELLECTUAL PARITY”
Gagik Hamtyunyan
The global security today depends to a large extent on the developments in Middle East in the context of the Islamic State’s (IS) actions. However, the IS is just the tip of the iceberg; the Middle Eastern processes are closely related to what happens in Central and Southeast Asia and continental “yellow, hot Africa.” In addition, escalation due to actions of extremist groups occurs not only in these regions. In terms of a number of indicators the same logic applies to the events in Ukraine. It is no coincidence that the “Right Sector” combatants call themselves “Christian Taliban”, let alone numerous instances of collaboration between Ukrainian and Islamic extremists from some regions of Russia and CIS. The potential of extremism accumulates also in EU countries, so far in somewhat latent form. After a long period of tranquility, racial-based clashes resurged in the USA. There is an impression that a wave of extremism is engulfing the entire global space and there is every reason to believe that this phenomenon is a key sociopolitical trend.
Some analysts correlate these developments with the painful emergence of multipolar world, which occurs in the mode of a “Cold War 2”. A re-division of spheres of influence is accompanied by geopolitical shifts. At the same time, connecting the developments to geopolitics only is somewhat problematic, too. * 5
' Executive Director, Noravank Scientific Educational Foundation.
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Problems of the “expropriation system”
Currently a peculiar insurrection happens against the pseudo-values based on financial profiteering model of economy that stimulates consuming instincts and makes them absolute, as a result of which a society guided by principles of social Darwinism is formed. It is only natural that in such societies democratic norms quickly devaluate, due to which the modern Western societies can be characterized as “post-democratic”1. This situation was perhaps most accurately described by Alexander Panarin: “after the West won the Cold War, symptoms of Western civilization’s degeneration into a new global expropriation system became visible”2.
It is known that such rebellious minds from both Muslim and Christian communities often join the ranks of extremist organizations. Protest movement, organizing which is impossible without modern information and communication means, is also directed against the system that has gained some traits of information totalitarianism. This is manifested by methodical “brainwashing” (which in a less politically correct manner is also called “global dumbing-down”) and mass wiretapping of everybody and everything, so that even George Orwell’s genius works pale in comparison. It is no so surprise that under such circumstances “dissident movement” emerge, somewhat reminiscent of the ones in Soviet Union, with some individual daredevils (Assange, Snowden, etc.) making stands and publishing “chronicles of actual events” in the totalitarian system. Many different and sophisticated methods are used to suppress the protest movement. However, the process is on and this resurrection sometimes quite
1 Колин Крауч, Постдемократия, М.: Изд-во Государственного университета- Высшая школа экономики, 2010.
2 Александр Панарин, Народ без элиты: между отчаянием и надеждой. «Наш современник», №11, 2001.
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harmonically superimposes over the global military and political situation, making it even more complicated and unpredictable.
The problem of perceiving the complexity
It is no surprise that terms like turbulence, multidimensionality or even chaos are used to characterize the modern realities. Meanwhile, it seems that as in the Shakespearian hero’s words, “though this be madness, yet there is method in't”. That is the reason why today the problem of adequate perception and conceptualization of the realities is as important as it has never been before. With this axiom in mind we shall attempt to present our understanding of some of the mechanisms of what happens. In doing so we shall adopt an approach, which assumes that along with natural/evolutionary processes, the current “complexity” is also formed at least in part by directing actions of the power centers. Because of this very complexity of developments, some of the narrative below has to be treated as versions, but in no way conspiracy theory improvisations. It is our firm belief that only free and open discussions of this kind can bring to rational and pragmatic conclusions, which in turn may help find the answer to the eternal question of “what to do”?
Precedents of political extremism
In the information space one may encounter many allusions regarding the ties of intelligence services with terrorist groups, including Al Qaida and IS. This is nothing new: it is well known that radicals are a brutal force that governments and intelligence services of more or less influential countries always try to control and use. Yet it would be somewhat difficult to attribute the current widespread expansion of extremism and its transformation into a global geopolitical
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factor only to some specific operations by intelligence services (however important they are). The logic of events at least indirectly allows suggesting a scenario of artificial and intentional spread of extremism, or at the minimum, an impact or factor of such thought-through plan in the unfolding developments.
Recently the anniversary of the Victory over Nazi Germany was celebrated. That war was also caused by rise of extremism: fascism and Nazism. There have been plenty of objective prerequisites for emergence of fascism ideology in Germany. As for racism, things are more complicated, as it is known that racism originated in Anglo-Saxon society. One fool always makes many, but some scholars suggest that the export and propagation of racist ideas into continental Europe was not really spontaneous. One way or another, fascism is now remembered only in historical context, whereas the thesis of one ethnicity’s supremacy over others (or in somewhat different modification, of one religion over others) still thrives even today. The semantic viruses of own exceptionalism are embedded in the technologies of “color revolutions” and societies that carry out such revolutions readily get infected by them. The most recent example is Ukraine.
Therefore, there is every reason to assume that the epidemic of extremism today is a technologized opportunity to unleash conflicts in a manner that can be capitalized upon by the “infectors”. For this, it is also sometimes useful even to “declare war on extremism”. Military/political developments of recent years at the very least suggest such possibility. 8
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“Smart technologies”, “think tanks”and “controlled chaos”
In the initial stage the traditional types of operations were carried out: Afghanistan and Iraq were bombed, occupied, etc. After that “smart technologies” were utilized. To implement policies in the Middle East, the USA extensively used the designs of RAND Corporation. Attention to outputs of this renowned think tank is very essential, especially in the context of understanding the “Middle Eastern complications”; here are just a few studies by RAND. Civil Democratic Islam: Partners, Resources, and Strategiess, Building Moderate Muslim Networks2, etc. Obviously, it would be an exaggeration to attribute the successes of “Arab Spring” and “Euromaidan” only to Gene Sharp technologies. After all, these coups d'etat (which incidentally, are classical examples of extremism) were based on deep knowledge of sociopolitical, ethnoreligious and psychological characteristics of a given country and society. And that is not all of it. RAND and Sharp may have provided the knowledge and technologies, i.e. the “tactical weapons”, but they were not the one who offered the political philosophy and ideology, i.e. the global strategy.
Just recently all analysts were talking about the “controlled chaos” in the Middle East. Some experts substantiated that this phenomenon is related to the concepts developed at the Santa Fe Institute, which is focused on interdisciplinarity and complex studies. Today this phrasing is used less frequently, which in our opinion is symptomatic, but we shall return to this later. Established with sponsorship of the Pentagon and Department of State, this institute was supposed to adapt the theory of chaos for applied geopolitical objectives. Character- 1 2
1 Cheryl Benard, Civil Democratic Islam: Partners, Resources, and Strategies, http.//www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1716.html.
2 Angel Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Lowell H. Schwartz, and Peter Sickle, Building Moderate Muslim Networks, http.//www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG574.html.
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istically, one of the founders of the institute is Murray Gell-Mann, a renowned Nobel Prize winner physicist, while the main principles of its activities are based on the concepts on “order out of chaos”1 by another Nobel Prize winner, Ilya Prigogine. Perhaps, the great scientists saw application of their ideas in real politics as a fun, at the same time pretty well-paid intellectual game (which is generally very characteristic to theorists in physics). It is harder to imagine, though, that they believed unconditionally in the universal nature of the laws of physics and thought that these laws would work in an unpredictable medium of the human society. We presume that participation of Zbigniew Brzezinski and other specialists of diplomacy and intelligence in the R&D activities played a decisive role in this. Less gifted by default in professional terms and guided by their geopolitical instincts, they could have forced an attempt to crossbreed politics and theoretical physics. If the world is a chessboard and geopolitics is subject to the rules of such game (it is sometimes useful to think, isn’t it?), then why not use physics in politics... One way or another, the symbiosis was performed and the lexicon of political analysis was enriched by the phrasing “controlled chaos”, out of which the “new order” was supposed to emerge, as its authors believed.
Proxy-genocide
There were and are numerous objective military, socioeconomic and religious/ confessional problems in the Middle East2. It is also known that real politics are hardly ever humane. However, it seems that some modern political technologies, which often contain not entirely correct and too mechanistic theses devel- 1 2
1 See for example: Пригожин И., Стенгерс И, Порядок из хаоса: Новый диалог человека с природой. -М.:, Прогресс, 1986. - 432 с.
2 See for example: Гагик Арутюнян, О некоторых вопросах стратегии США в контексте Иракской проблемы, 21-й век, #3(5), с. 105, 2004 (на армянском языке).
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oped by think tanks, are particularly inhumane. They initiate and promote mili-tary/political and societal processes that lead to mass deaths and destruction of civilizational values. These technologies are quite politically correct in their narrative and seem to contain no elements of racism or fascism. Yet they have brought about a humanitarian catastrophe quite comparable with the one occurred during the World War I. Admittedly, the mechanisms in this case are far more sophisticated, as wars are made by the hands of others, or worded differently, by proxy.
For instance, the “news ticker genocide”1 currently occurs in the Middle East, with 2 million casualties and over 15 million refugees so far. Genocide is accompanied by culturecide, and the Christian communities of the Middle East (including Armenians) are at the verge of extinction. All of this may seem to have no connection to those who have developed and applied dubious concepts like “controlled chaos”. The global community’s unresponsiveness to this mechanism of “proxy-genocide” is related to the well-developed preemptive information manipulation technique. For example, the whole Syria deal is presented as a civil war of the “civic opposition” against the dictator Assad. In order to suppress any possible protests of the proverbial global community (so as to avoid the precedent that took place during the Vietnam War) various methods are used. It sometimes even comes to wide distribution of drugs, which in principle can be characterized as a psychological warfare against own society2. It is not improbable that fetishizing the ideas of same-sex marriage (especially against
1 Гагик Арутюнян, Мультиполярные реалии, Ближный Восток и геноцид в режиме «бегущей строки», http://noravank.am/rus/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=12307&sphrase_id=47943.
2 Гагик Арутюнян, Информационные операции: история и современность, http://www.noravank.am/rus/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=13489&sphrase_id=47952.
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the background of existing problems) is also aimed at dumbing-down the masses, along with similar technologies for control of masses. Meanwhile, it is absolutely clear that the genocide in the Middle East should be investigated in a format of international tribunal as a crime against humanity. And it should not be necessarily done by the Hague Tribunal.
Ciyilizational dimension
The intangible, information/psychological ramifications are not less dramatic. The very name of IS has inserted Islam’s association with terrorism in the consciousness of the global community, which leads to bolstering of inter-civilizational antagonism in the spirit of Huntington’s concepts.
In addition, in the context of developments taking place in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, relations between nations with common ethno-cultural background deteriorate as well. In particular, manipulation technologies used within the concept of “soft power” deform the “civilizational codes” of the societies that were previously considered close in spiritual terms. Meanwhile, loss of the own “civilizational coordinates” leads to great problems in almost all aspects of the life. Intolerance usually grows in such societies, sometimes evolving into a political and military conflict with their “own” people, as it happens in Ukraine. In this context it is important to develop both conceptual and organizational technologies (based on the networking principle) that would enable rebuilding the identity, as well as the civilizational commonality (and hence, the synergy needed for general development) of the artificially divided ethnic groups.
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The political outcomes
It has to be admitted that the mentioned military/intellectual efforts have brought quite considerable results. Currently Eurasia is surrounded by a belt of instability (the infamous “Anaconda”), while radical groups are active in Russia and China, often not without success. In addition, Russia and Iran are drawn into conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen, respectively, while the oil and gas seized and sold by IS combatants add to the price decline for hydrocarbons, and so on, and so forth.
It would seem that all main geostrategic objectives have been achieved. Not quite, because some other physical principles interfered, which are much simpler and truly universal, such as Newton’s law that for every action there is reaction.
Russia and China in their own ways started opposing American plans and taking relevant measures. To a large extent thanks to a unique sociopolitical system Iran turned out immune against any sorts of color revolutions, and Syrian and Libyan nightmares were not replicated there. The Egyptian military rose against the revolutionary anarchy and restored the order in a considerable degree. In the context of “resistance” a number of countries started to coordinate their efforts in formats of SCO, BRICS and EAEU. Perhaps, these are the reasons why the wording “controlled chaos” is now less popular in the information space: after all, a lot of things point to the fact that “chaos” has slipped out of control and now functions under its own, unpredictable rules, as normally a true societal/human chaos should behave...
Against this backdrop some problems have appeared for the United States. At the time Paul Kennedy warned that “the sum total of the United States’
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global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country’s power to defend them all simultaneously” and he called this phenomenon an “imperial overstretch.” In addition, this “overstretch” is accompanied by a typical “dizziness from success”. Despite this, even an “overstretched” and “dizzy with success” America is able to accomplish a lot, especially given its superiority over all competitors in scientific innovation and military technologies.
Uncertainty of the prospects
According to the US Army Chief of Staff, ISIS fight is a 10-year problem1, whereas earlier President Obama has stated it will take three years. Let us remember that it took just three weeks to defeat the Iraqi army in 2003. Interestingly, very few dare naming any dates in relation to the Ukraine conflict, but there are signs that the standoff is becoming chronic.
Growth of uncertainty in the new Cold War is caused among other things by the fact that the world has become a multicenter place. Unlike the previous cold war, in the current one there are not only several large geopolitical players, but also a number of influential transnational commercial corporations and NGOs. Each of them has their own ideas about the future (often quite vague ones) that naturally do not coincide. Due to these reasons it is truly difficult to come up with prognosis or correct future scenarios. Usually in such cases people turn to forecasts by NIC 2, but the impression is that this and other similar organizations have not yet sufficiently accounted for the factors of IS, Ukraine and global growth of extremism in their studies.
1 Army Chief Of Staff: Arab Forces Must ‘Step Up,’ ISfS Fight A ’10-Year Problem’,
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/06/11/army-chief-of-staff-arab-forces-must-step-up-isis-fight-a-10-
year-problem/
2 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends,
http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends.
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If one attempts to extrapolate the modern realities into future, then as it was already mentioned, the main trend is the growth of extremism. This process has gained momentum also on the European continent in two parallel ways. First, it is the boomerang effect: streams of disgruntled refugees escaping “chaos” are fertile ground for all sorts of terrorist organizations, not to mention special IS envoys embedded among the refugees. Protest matures also among the ethnic Europeans for whom a threat to their survival as species is starting to materialize. In this context intuitive prophecies in fiction format1 could pass for plausible prognoses.
Some conclusions
The above described trends do not contradict to the earlier forecasts according to which the world undergoes transformation, the integration around power centers gains momentum, yet in parallel fragmentation of global space occurs along the civilizational and other lines. Some scenarios suggest that the USA increasingly loses monopolistic positions, while others expect Pax Americana to last.
Feasibility of such scenarios depends not only and even not so much on economic and military strengths, but more on whether Russia, China and other countries would be able to compete with the superpower in the area of “smart political and organizational technologies”2.
In this context the situation is comparable that of the mid-20th century, when leading countries could not be considered superpowers if they did not
1 Елена Чудинова, Мечеть Парижской Богоматери. – М.: Изд-во: Яуза, Эксмо, Лепта-Пресс, 2005.
2 See, for example: Гагик Арутюнян, Прогнозирование и формирование будущего, 21-й Век, #3(19), с.5, 2011, Гагик Арутюнян, История, информационные войны и интеллектуальный паритет, http://www.noravank.am/rus/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=13442.
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have nuclear weapons. This is perceived especially acutely in China, where the State Council has adopted a resolution to create a number of think tanks. An objective is set that “some of them achieve global influence”1.
It appears that a full-fledged multipolar world order is possible only when “intellectual parity” is achieved between the countries and relevant mechanisms are developed for “deterring smart technologies”.
July, 2015
1 О развитии «мозговых центров» в КНР, Зарубежное военное обозрение, #4, с.92,2015.
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