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формы и длины выводного канала пробойника. Учет вышеуказанных факторов позволит значительно повысить точность расчета усилия перфорации.
Список литературы
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3. Кармалта А.К., Полщук О.С., Прибега Д.В. «Дослвдження процесу вирубування деталей взуття в статичному режимЬ> // Вкник Технолопчного уншерситету Подшля. - 2003. - №6 Ч. 1, Т. 2. -С. 199 - 202.
4. Прибега Д. В. Удосконалення технологи розкроювання та перфорування верху взуття: дис. канд. техн. наук., Хмельницкий, ХНУ 2006. - 155с.
УДК: 553.982.2
Телекова Л.Р., Дияковская А.В.
Астраханский государственный технический университет «ВЕЛИКОЕ» МЕСТОРОЖДЕНИЕ КАК ИНДИКАТОР МИРОВЫХ ТРЕНДОВ
Telekova L.R., Diyakovskaya A. V.
Astrakhan State Technical University
«THE GREAT» FIELD AS AN INDICATOR OF WORLD TRENDS
Аннотация
В данной статье представлены характеристики недавно открытого в России месторождения углеводородного сырья "Великое", расположенного в Астраханской области. Даны приблизительные оценки запасов данного месторождения и его рыночной стоимости. Месторождение "Великое" в статье рассматривается в качестве индикатора мировых трендов, поскольку в настоящее время имеется несколько альтернатив его дальнейшей эксплуатации, и выбор того или иного пути, который осуществит компания, открывшая это уникальное месторождение, будет прекрасно отражать тренды современного мирового нефтяного рынка.
Abstract
This article presents the characteristics of the recently discovered hydrocarbon field «The Great» in Russia, located in the Astrakhan Region. Given an approximate assessment of the reserves of this field and its market value. «The Great» field is considered in the article as an indicator of global trends, since at present there are several alternatives for its further exploitation, and choosing one way or another that the company that discovered this unique field makes will perfectly reflect the trends of the modern global oil market.
Ключевые слова: нефти России, месторождение «Великое», нефтяной рынок, мировые тренды, нефтяные корпорации.
Key words: Russian oil, «The Great» field, oil market, global trends, oil corporations.
The century in which we live is the age of oil and gas. Russia possesses large reserves of oil and gas and is among the world leaders in their production. In terms of oil reserves, Russia ranks 6th in the world. According to 2018, its reserves amounted to 106.2 billion barrels, which is 6.3% of world reserves. In terms of natural gas reserves, the Russian Federation ranks first in the world. Its proven reserves for 2018 are estimated at about 47.8 trillion m3. This represents about 32% of all global reserves.
At present, the hydrocarbon resources of the Astrakhan region on land are the largest in the European part of the Russian Federation and its amount is more than 6 trillion m3 of gas and 1.3 billion tons of liquid hydrocarbons. According to experts there are about 96% of hydrocarbon reserves of the whole Southern Federal District are concentrated [3, c.295].
In 2014 the largest of the discovered hydrocarbon deposits were found in the Astrakhan region. The raw material base area includes 11 fields: 4 gas condensate, 4 oil and 3 gaseous ones. Three of these fields are Astrakhan gas condensate field, Central-Astrakhan gas condensate field and the discovered in 2014 oil field «The Great», they are all unique by oil and gas reserves.
«The Great» is located in a semi-desert area of the Harabalinskii district of the Astrakhan region. The area is about 800 km2. The depth of occurrence of stocks is about 5000 meters. Estimated reserves are 300 million tons of oil and 90 billion m3 of gas, for a visual example, last year, 523 million tons of oil were produced in Russia. Recoverable reserves are 42.3 million tons [4]. Oil at the field is characterized as light, and dissolved in it is a gas with a low content of hydrogen sulfide. In
«ш^шетим-^шгмаьотжш©^ / technical ЮИМСЖ
contrast to all the deposits confined to the same deposits (Bashkir, Karbon) in the region, hydrogen sulfide is found only in hundredths.
A little-known company «AFB» discovered the field called «The Great». Currently it is considered one of the most promising in the Astrakhan region. The State Reserves Committee «Rosnedra» put on the state balance the reserves of oil and gas new unique hydrocarbon deposit discovered in the Astrakhan region. «The volume of the deposit «The Great» reserves allows to talk about the birth of a new oil and gas province in the Astrakhan region», - said the head of the Ministry of Nature Sergey Donskoy [4]. The last field of this magnitude was discovered in 1991 in the Krasnoyarsk Territory (Vankor, now operated by «Ros-neft»).
The Ministry of Natural Resources has called the stocks of «The Great» unprecedented, but the field is the problem, primarily because of the complicated geological structure. The chief geologist of the company «AFB» Vladimir Kudinov noted that «The Great» field has a complex geological structure, and it is the first field in the land of the Astrakhan region practically does not contain hydrogen sulfide impurities. The development of «The Great» may indeed be difficult, due to the large depth of hydrocarbon occurrence, and therefore, high pressure. It is known, that the Caspian Lowland has a complex geology [2].
And although the reserves of «The Great» in the gas volume of 90 billion m3 is less the reserves of the Astrakhan gas condensate field, but also the quality of the product is much higher, it is easier to extract. And most importantly, that the new field is an oil one. The approximate value of «The Great»is about $ 1.1 billion [1].
The field called «The Great» from this point of view, looks really attractive. But, as the chief geologist of the «AFB» self-critically remarked, this is a «com-plex field». And all experts understand that it can make a profit, but this profit will not be easy. Drilling technological wells in difficult conditions, their preparation for work, the creation of infrastructure - this already requires a solid investment. Developers will have to lay the costs for very likely emergencies. In the course of development, hydrogen sulfide with gas reserves can be detected, which can reduce the value of «The Great». All this may be a reason to sell the project.
So, the investors of «AFB» now have three ways. They can start producing oil on their own. This can be beneficial if the oil market is growing. But the field is complex, which means that new equipment is needed, and this can reduce profits. The second option is to look for a partner. Analysts say that the last large deposits
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are almost dismantled. «AFB» has a choice - it is either «Gazpromneft» or «Rosneft», the largest oil and gas corporations in Russia.
But there is a third way, so far not officially discussed. This is an opportunity of «The Great» sale. Entirely. Perhaps it will not give such a large profit, as in the case of partner development, but it will allow to shift all the burden on the development of the field onto other people's shoulders. It can be assumed that if the «AFB» does this quickly and without long trading, this will be a signal that investors now do not really believe in the stability of the oil market, and it is easier to sell the asset with some kind of profit than to find yourself in a difficult situation. But there is another nuance. The deposit may turn out to be, for example, even richer than it is supposed now, and then its sale will be the sale of a winning lottery ticket. At the same time, production can be started only in 5-7 years, and then what will be the price of oil?
In any case, if «Rosneft» or «Gazpromneft» join the battle for «The Great» field or start developing some other schemes, then it will be possible to assume that the oil giants are looking to the future with confidence. So «The Great» field can be an interesting indicator not only of the oil market, but also of world politics.
Список литературы:
1. Астраханская область: Месторождение "Великое", [Электронный ресурс] // Live Journal 21.05.2014, URL: https://iv-g.livejournal.com/1036504.html (дата обращения: 01.02.2019).
2. Васильева Е., Мокроусова И., Лапшин А., Дозаправка отложена: «Газпром нефть» отказалась от месторождения «Великое», [Электронный ресурс] // Forbes 06.10.2015, URL: http://www.forbes.ru/kom-panii/resursy/302021-dozapravka-otlozhena-gazprom-neft-otkazalas-ot-mestorozhdeniya-velikoe (дата обращения: 01.02.2019).
3. Ткачева О.А., Науменко Р.И. Основные направления развития топливно-энергетической базы Южного федерального округа, [Электронный ресурс] ГИАБ. 2012. №2. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/osnovnye-napravleniya-razvitiya-toplivno-energeticheskoy-bazy-yuzhnogo-federalnogo-okruga-1 (дата обращения: 01.02.2019).
4. Топалов А., Великое проблемное месторождение, [Электронный ресурс] // Газета.Ру 16.04.2014, URL: https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2014/04/16/5995149.s html (дата обращения: 01.02.2019).
