THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DEBT CRISIS Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

QbSUMUb УРвУЮ SCIENTIFIC ARTSAKH НАУЧНЫЙ АРЦАХ № 3 (18), 2023

ShSb(JUQhSni-rd3ni-h, ECONOMICS, ЭКОНОМИКА

THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DEBT CRISIS *

UDC 336.2 DOI: 10.52063/25792652-2023.3.18-143

ASHOT MARKOSYAN

Armenian State University of Economics, Senior Expert at «Amberd» Research Center, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Yerevan, the Republic of Armenia ashotmarkos@rambler.ru ORCID: 0000-0002-5077-4253

ELYANORA MATEVOSYAN

National Academy of Sciences of the RA, Institute of Economics after M. Kotanyan, Head of the «Macroeconomic Issues and Finances» scientific direction, Ph.D. of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Yerevan, the Republic of Armenia eleonora matevosyan@.ysu.am ORCID: 0000-0002-9685-4363

MERUZHAN MARKOSYAN

«Political, legal and Economic Research and Forecasting» NGO, Ph.D. of Sciences (Economics), Yerevan, the Republic of Armenia markosvan844@gmail.com ORCID: 0000-0003-3608-0375

In the conditions of the globalization of the global economy and the deepening of economic integration, the external debt appears as a unique form of relations between the global economy and individual regions and group of countries. External debt affects a country's creditworthiness and investors' expectations. Such a circumstance creates a unique chain of interdependencies and interconnections between them. There is a situation where "everyone depends and is connected to everyone". It is obvious that foreign debt is a special form of loanable capital, which, as shown by the development indicators of the global economy in the last decade, has a progressive coefficient of other main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, foreign trade turnover, including exports and imports).

The purpose of this article is to study, evaluate, and measure the effectiveness of external government debt use, particularly in the context of the

* Япф4шЬ|] libp^oijmgi4b[ t 07.07.2023р., фш^пиф[' 03.09.2023p., rnqoiqpnLpjoil QliiyiLlii4bf 31.10.2023p.:

former Soviet Union countries and the countries of the South Caucasus region. To that end, the following problems have been addressed:

• assess the impact of foreign public debt on economic growth, as well as foreign trade turnover, including exports and imports.

This article used methods of scientific abstraction, induction and deduction, absolute and comparative efficiency assessment of statistical rankings, synthesis, and economic rates. Based on the proposed methodology, the impact of external public debt on the above indicators has been measured and evaluated.

The study found that a 1 percent increase in external public debt led to.

■ The rate of external debt growth rate / GDP growth rate was 1.2 in 2015 and 4.0 in 2021,

■ The rate of external debt growth rate / external trade growth rate was 1.2 in 2015 and 3.9 in 2021.

■ Included:

■ The rate of external debt growth rate / export growth rate was 1.2 in 2015 and 3.9 in 2021,

■ External debt growth rate / import growth rate was 1.2 in 2015 and 4.0 in 2021.

Therefore, it becomes significant in the economic policy of the state to reveal the reasons for attracting foreign debt. The analysis of the trends of debt indicators among the socio-economic development of individual regions and group of countries take a unique place in the global debt crisis.

Key words: External debt, short-term and long-term debt, debt burden, foreign trade turnover, export and import of goods and services, gross domestic product, debt growth ratio.

Introduction

As evidenced by the historical development of the global economy, debt as a tool accompanying the development of the state and regulating economic relations was and currently continues to be an indispensable means of accompanying the development. The point is that, as evidenced by the research of macroeconomic indicators of the global economy and individual regions and the identification of the connections between them, there are few or very rare cases in the world when this or that state does not form foreign debt. As is known, the debt is both external and internal. As a rule, foreign debt is cheaper for the state and its taxpayers than domestic debt, which is the reason for the progressive rate of growth of foreign debt compared to domestic debt.

The aim of the research is to identify the 2010-2021 the relations between the external trade turnover of the GDP of the global economy and the external debt during the period, to present the dozens of countries with the largest debt burden, as well as the ones with the smallest debt burden, to analyze the relationship between the external debt and macroeconomic indicators of the republics that were part of the former Soviet Union, in order to identify the progressive coefficients of the external debt magnitudes. An important place is also given to the identification and analysis of the trends and features of foreign debt in individual regions (the South Caucasus, Armenia and its neighboring countries, and republics of the South Caucasus).

Literature Review

According to the "Explanatory Dictionary of Commonly Used Economic Terms" the concept of debt is defined as:

"Debt, долг, щшртр " - is a certain amount of money or other asset, which legal person has borrowed from another person and, as a rule, is obliged to return it within a specified period, upon fulfillment of certain conditions. Debt arises as a result of late payment or loan disbursal (Explanatory dictionary of the most useful economic terms, 2008, p. 132).

Debt has existed in history since ancient times. Depending on different periods and civilizations, the debt was repaid in different ways. For example, American Indians had an interesting tradition, if someone borrowed money, he put his name as collateral. Until the debtor did not return the debt, all the inhabitants of the village called him with gestures and sounds.

In towns and other areas of 11th-century France, the term "Ostagium", which translates as "hostage", was accepted. According to a similar contract, the debtor could not leave the city until he had paid his debt in full. In ancient India it was customary for a creditor to draw a circle around a debtor, from which the debtor could not leave until his debt was paid; until the debt was paid off, leaving the circle was punishable by beheading (Khachatryan, Narine, "Public debt", Vanadzor 2022).

1. One of the classical economists, Adam Smith, viewed the payment of interest on foreign debt as a loss or diminution of national wealth as it flows to the country that is the creditor of the country servicing the debt. Adam Smith said: "The progress of the enormous debts which at present oppress, and will in the long-run probably ruin, all the great nations of Europe, has been pretty uniform" (Wolff, Jessica, 1998, p. 1).

External Debt

Gross external debt is the non-contingent, current liabilities of the reporting country towards non-residents at a certain point in time, which provide for future payments in the form of interest payments and/or principal repayments. External debt, as a rule, arises on the basis of contractual relations, according to which one structural unit (the debtor) undertakes obligations to another structural unit (the creditor) to return the principal amount with or without interest, or to pay the interest without returning the principal amount (International Debt Statistics, World Bank, 2023).

1. External debt is the portion of a country's total debt owed to creditors outside the country. Debtors can be governments, corporations, or private households. According to the definition of the World Bank, "Total external debt is the debt of non-residents that is repaid in foreign currency, goods or services" (Statistical yearbook of Armenia, 2017, 448).

Gross external debt is the actual current and unpaid amount of outstanding liabilities at any point in time that require principal and/or interest payments at some point in time in the future and represent the liabilities of residents to non-residents (Statistical Yearbook of Armenia, 2022, page 508).

Current Methodology of External Debt

Data on external debt are collected through the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS). Long-term debt data are compiled using country reports on government and publicly guaranteed borrowing on a loan-by-loan basis and private unguaranteed borrowing on an aggregate basis. This data is supplemented by information from major multilateral banks and official credit agencies of major creditor countries. Data on short-term debt are collected from the Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS) database, jointly developed by the World Bank and the IMF, and through the International Settlements Data Reporting Systems. Debt data is presented in the maturity currency and

compiled and published in US dollars. Exchange rates are taken from International Financial Statistics of IMF (Tin Yu To, Anthony and Agarwal, Parul, MAY 18, 2023).

Under the current methodology for accounting and managing external debt, total debt service is contrasted with countries' ability to earn foreign exchange through goods, services, primary income and workers' remittances. Debt ratios are used to assess the sustainability of a country's debt service obligations, but no absolute rule determines which values are too high. An empirical analysis of developing country experience and debt service performance shows that debt service difficulties become increasingly likely when the current value of debt reaches 200 percent of exports. However, what constitutes a sustainable debt burden varies by country. Countries with fast growing economies and exports are likely to be able to maintain higher levels of debt (External debt stocks, total, World Bank, 2023).

The influence of the external state debt on the economy is determined by the change of a number of macroeconomic indicators, from which the authors have studied the rates of economic growth, as well as the indicators of trade turnover, including export and import. This effect is measured by the ratio of the growth of the above-mentioned macroeconomic indicators and the growth of the external state debt. And if this ratio is greater than one, then it is accepted that the external state debt has been used effectively, and vice versa, if the ratio less than one, then the opposite statement is true. Such an approach is used by international organizations (such as IMF and World Bank) and national organizations.

The Main Reasons for Attracting Foreign Debt

The involvement of foreign debt (by the government, the central bank and the private sector) makes it possible to expand consumption and make investments on a larger scale than they allow internal and external accumulations. Foreign debt promotes economic growth, creating foundations for domestic trade and exports for further growth. For that reason, many developing countries turn to foreign debt for the implementation of investments and, thus, with the aim of ensuring stable economic growth, at the same time related to the introduction of foreign debt is with great risks. In this case, the question arises as to what it means. To explain this, let us first compare the use of capital by the private sector and the state. For the rational use of capital, the investment will begin with the difference that has the norm of the highest profit, then they will go to the variant that is the second in terms of that norm and will choose in a similar way as long as the profit margin is not enough for the settlement, because it will come later This investment will lead to significant financial losses.

In contrast to companies that produce goods and provide services in order to get money, the projects provided by the government are not always profitable. In this case, it is possible to talk about real economic and social interaction only when the benefit obtained from the development of the given behavioral program obtained through external debt. Let's look at the latter in a more general way. If the country incurs foreign debt, it must pay interest on its debt. Simultaneously with the increase in the level of external debt, the amount of interest payments also increases. In this case, the foreign debt is used not only to cover the budget gap, which improves domestic savings. Between traffic and investment and intergovernmental spending and income, as well as the foreign debt rate, for the payment of the property.

The growth rate of foreign debt depends on a number of factors. First of all, it is important that the external debt is part of the viable debt, which can be expressed as a result of the deficit of the accounts of goods and services and the accumulated debt. The second function can be the arrangement. The higher the interest rate, the more foreign debts will be incurred.

The best way to attract foreign loans is that they are used to increase the production capacity of the country.

When the government is considering foreign debt programs, it should take into account the following factors:

• the accesses available from the net, as well as the possible external settings and features. other types of financing together should be sufficient for servicing the external debt,

• the planned government revenues must be sufficient for the country to maintain its economic value and will be able to service the foreign debt.

The latter is possible in the event that financial goals are successfully achieved. But even in the event that revenues exceed government expenditures, tax collection and other difficulties may significantly limit the state's ability to service external debt. In order to effectively manage the external debt, the state must more or less accurately determine the position of its obligations in terms of debt service. It should forecast export earnings, domestic inflows and the availability of other sources of financing in the future. Along with these, the state should have sought to pay off the debt ahead of time, ensuring the availability of sources with more favorable refinancing conditions. The latter include:

• Use of new external debt with more favorable terms,

• Fixing the payment terms of the loan within the self-reimbursement terms of the project financed by the given loan,

• The ability to adapt to unexpected changes, such as a reduction in export earnings or an increase in spending on imports.

The countries can keep their external debt on the same level, they have rules. On the other hand, the supply of financial resources is limited. Therefore, the country should choose a better option from the available sources of external financing. The loan that will satisfy both individual financial goals and household needs. One of the most important aspects is that the country should strive to reach a new promising partner. The other point is that the external subsidies and work should be used more effectively. It is obvious that they are the cheapest forms of external financing, but they are, as a rule, accessible only to the poorest, developing countries. For them, and even for those countries, their impact is not enough. It is possible to get the best benefit from a free financial service, if it is combined with a financial service. Other sources of credit resources can be international credit and international business (Markosyan, Khachaturyan, 2020, p. 455459).

Foreign Debt in the System of Macroeconomic Indicators

The analysis of the relationship between the main macroeconomic indicators of the global economy and individual regions reveals the connection and dependence between them, which can be an important impetus for the correction of inconsistencies and imbalances formed between them and the formation and establishment of positive trends. It is noteworthy that, especially regarding external debt, most of the states as well as well-known international organizations are developing laws, strategies on external debt management and developing economic policies in detail, monitoring their application and increasing the effectiveness of external funds involved. Moreover, in most states, the acquisition of foreign loans goes through the highest legislative process (usually procedures for approval of tenders, as well as reporting and approval of the use of foreign debt).

From the point of view of foreign debt and its usage patterns, the analysis of the relationship between the foreign trade turnover of the GDP, including imports and exports, and the indicators of foreign debt is of considerable interest. The best correlation

between the mentioned macroeconomic indicators can be considered when the indicators of GDP, as well as foreign trade turnover, and especially exports, are more advanced than the indicators of foreign debt, and on the contrary, when the opposite relationship is observed, it will mean an increase in the external debt burden.

Figure 1 shows the change in the growth rates of global GDP, global trade, global external debt and the external debt of the former Soviet Union from 2010 to 2021.

Fig. 1: Change in growth rates of global GDP, global trade turnover, global external debt and external debt of the former Soviet Union in 2010-2021, million USD$

[10,11,12,13,14,15,16]

The analysis of changes in the growth rates of global GDP, global trade turnover, global external debt and external debt of the former Soviet Union shows that:

• during the mentioned period, the global GDP increased by 144.9% in 2021 compared

to 2010, the foreign trade turnover increased by 145.3%, including exports by 145.6%, imports by 144.9%, foreign debt by 573.2%,

• The GDP growth rate of the global economy is higher than the foreign trade turnover

growth rate, which is a positive trend,

• The total size of the external debt of the countries of the former Soviet Union is very

small in the structure of the global external debt.

Table 1 shows the change in the growth rates of global GDP, global foreign trade turnover and global foreign debt in 2010-2021.

Table 1: Changes in the growth rates of global GDP, foreign trade turnover and foreign debt in 2010-2021. (2010=100) and the ratio of external debt and their

growth rates [17]

Year 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021

GDP: 100 112.9 129.8 131.6 127.8 144.9

Foreign trade turnover 100 111.3 132.2 130.2 117.2 145.3

including,

Export 100 111.1 131.7 129.5 117.2 145.6

Import 100 111.5 132.7 130.9 117.2 144.9

External debt 100 134.1 317.1 609.8 551.2 573.2

External debt growth rate / GDP growth rate 100 1.2 2.4 4.6 4.3 4.0

Foreign debt growth rate / Foreign trade turnover growth rate 100 1.2 2.4 4.7 4.7 3.9

Foreign debt growth rate / Export growth rate 100 1.2 2.4 4.7 4.7 3.9

Foreign debt growth rate / Import growth rate 100 1.2 2.4 4.7 4.7 4.0

It follows from the data in Table 1 that:

• growth rate of external debt / GDP growth rate were respectively: 1.2 in 2015, 2.4 in 2018, 4.6 in 2019, 4.3 in 2020, and 4.0 in 2021 ;

• growth rate of foreign debt / growth rate of foreign trade turnover was 1.2 in 2015, 2.4 in 2018, 4.7 in 2019, 4.7 in 2020 respectively, 3.9 in 2021;

• growth rate of external debt / growth rate of exports were respectively: 1.2 in 2015, 2.4 in 2018, 4.7 in 2019, 4.7 in 2020, and 3.9 in 2021;

• growth rate of foreign debt / growth rate of imports was 1.2 in 2015, 2.4 in 2018, 4.7 in 2019, 4.7 in 2020, and 4.0 in 2021.

During the years 2010-2021, a progressive increase of the external debt to the GDP of the global economy was observed, which in absolute terms significantly exceeded the size of the GDP.

Thus, if in 2010 the GDP of the global economy was 66,605,767.0 million US dollars, and the global external debt was 41,000,000.0 million US dollars or 61.6% of the GDP, in 2015 it was 75,187,841.0 million US dollars, 55,000,000.0, million USD or 73.3%, respectively. In 2018: 86,456,888.0 million USD, 130,000,000.0 million USD or 150.4%, in 2019: 87,645,255.0 million USD, 250,000,000.0, million USD or 285.2%, in 2020 - 85,105,603.0 million USD, 226,000,000.0 million USD or 265.6%, in 2021 96,513,077.0 million USD, 235,000,000.0 million USD or 243.5%.

The volume of global exports in 2010 in absolute terms was 19,149,569 million US dollars or 46.7% of the volume of foreign debt, or foreign debt exceeded the volume of exports by 214.1%. In 2015, respectively: 21,280,803 million US dollars, 38.7% or 258.4%. In 2018, respectively: 25,215,911 million USD, 19.4% or 515.5%. In 2019, respectively: 24,791,122 million US dollars, 9.9% or 1008.4%. In 2020, respectively: 22,450,581 million US dollars, 9.9% or 1006.7%. In 2021, respectively: 27,876,839 million USD, 11.9% or 843.0%.

Table 2 shows the 2021 population of the former Soviet Union and its constituent republics. indicators of national income and foreign debt as of now, in percentages to the size of national income, 2010-2021 (among 217 countries).

Table 2: As of 2021, the ratio of national income and foreign debt in the countries of the former Soviet Union, in percentages to the size of national income, 20102021 [18]

Country 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021

Azerbaijan 14.6 25.9 36.1 34.2 37.3 27.5

Armenia 64.9 80.4 84.7 86.1 101.2 102.6

Belarus 50.7 70.8 67.0 65.2 72.2 63.5

Kazakhstan 92.6 88.8 100.0 100.2 103.5 95.9

Kyrgyzstan 91.7 120.3 101.8 104.5 115.3 115.8

Georgia 73.1 101.8 102.4 112.4 133.0 124.8

Russian Federation 28.3 37.1 29.5 29.6 31.7 27.8

Tajikistan 51.1 52.5 67.7 68.9 73.1 66.7

Turkmenistan 8.1 20.8 20.9 15.0

Ukraine 91.6 125.0 92.2 80.2 82.7 69.5

Uzbekistan 15.8 15.3 32.5 36.9 54.2 56.2

Moldova 63.2 74.4 62.0 59.7 67.2 66.1

Total 645.6 813.1 797.0 792.9 871.3 816.3

There are no data for the Baltic countries.

It follows from Table 7 that Georgia had the largest ratio of foreign debt to national income in 2021 (124.8%), then Kyrgyzstan (115.8%) and then Armenia (102.6%).

Azerbaijan had the smallest ratio of foreign debt to national income in 2021 (27.5%), followed by the Russian Federation (27.8%) and then Uzbekistan (56.2%).

Changes in the growth rates of GDP, foreign trade turnover and foreign debt of the countries of the former Soviet Union (the data of the Baltic states are missing) in 20102021 (2010=100) and the ratio of foreign debt and their growth rate analysis shows that as of 2021, the highest level of GDP growth was observed in: (2010=100) Moldova (196.3%), then Kyrgyzstan (182.3%), followed by Tajikistan (158.4%), and the lowest indicators of GDP growth were Azerbaijan (103.6%), then the Russian Federation (120.5%), and then Belarus (121.7%).

2021 The highest level of foreign trade turnover growth was observed in Moldova (197.5%), Georgia (188.7%) and Armenia (183.3%), while the lowest trade turnover growth was observed in Kazakhstan (103.3%), Azerbaijan (105.4%) and in the Russian Federation (120.9%).

Uzbekistan (488.6%), Georgia (250.9%) and Kyrgyzstan (220.1%) had the lowest rate of foreign debt growth in 2021 compared to 2010, and Ukraine (108.1%) had the lowest rate - 9%, also the Russian Federation (115.2%) and Kazakhstan (220.1%).

In 2021, compared to 2010, the growth rate of foreign debt was the highest in Uzbekistan (3.5 times), Azerbaijan (1.9 times) and Georgia (1.6 times), while Armenia is in 4th place (1.5 times), and the lowest rate was Ukraine (0.8 times), the Russian

Federation, Kazakhstan and Moldova (1 time), Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are in 3rd place in this index (1.2 times).

25,000.0

2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021

■ Armenia - External debt, total (US$ million) ■ Azerbaijan - External debt, total (US$ million)

■ Georgia - External debt, total (US$ million)

Fig. 2: Indicators of the growth of the total external debt of

Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in 2010-2021, million US$

2010-2021 The study of the indicators of foreign debt of the South Caucasian republics during the period shows that:

• Georgia has the largest foreign debt index in 2021: 22.1 billion dollars, the growth rate was 250.9%, Armenia's, respectively: 13.1 billion dollars, 219.1%, Azerbaijan, respectively: 14.1 billion dollars, 202.0%,

• From the point of view of foreign debt policy development and management, the index of indebtedness per 1 billion dollars of GDP, which is calculated by the ratio of foreign debt to GDP, is of considerable interest. Thus, if in 2010, 0.7 billion foreign debt ''fell to the part'' of Georgia's 1 billion dollar GDP, Armenia's - 0.7 billion dollars, and Azerbaijan's - 0.1 billion dollars. Other indicators for 2021 were 1.2 billion dollars, 1.0 billion dollars, 0.3 billion dollars, respectively. In other words, the effect of foreign debt (the amount of influence on GDP) was the highest in Azerbaijan, then in Armenia and then in Georgia.

Conclusion

Despite the fact that, especially in the 1980s and 1990s, about 50 countries had to restructure their external debts, many, such as Colombia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, managed to avoid it. The question arises as to what is the main mistake in the management of external debt, which forces countries to resort to such a measure. Each of those 50 countries has its own characteristics of economic development and management, but one thing is clear, the most serious problem here is the lack of full control of the state budget deficit. It is natural that the budget deficit should be financed in some way, but it is necessary to remember that the available external financing can put the state in front of a bigger deficit. A vivid example of this is Poland, which in the early 1980s attracted a large amount of foreign and bank loans. It is very important not to be tempted by external financing in order to close the deficit, because when the country's budget problems become serious for the lenders, such financing can be stopped unexpectedly (for example, in Turkey in 1976, in Mexico in 1982).

• 2010-2021. During the period, the external indebtedness of the GDP of the global

economy (debt burden) increased 4 times.

• 2010-2021. During the period, the indebtedness (debt burden) of the foreign trade circulation of the global economy increased 3.9 times.

• 2010-2021. During the period, the indebtedness (debt burden) of the global economy's exports increased 3.9 times.

• 2010-2021. During the period, the import indebtedness of the global economy (debt burden) increased 4.0 times.

If we keep in mind that the laws adopted especially on the state debt accept the maximum size of the recognition of the state's debt, as a rule, 50 or 60 percent of the size of the debt to the GDP, then the above data prove that the world is in a debt crisis for more than 10 years, let's also note that the main means of repaying the foreign debt for any country is the increase in exports, and the given data testify to the poor state of the export / foreign debt ratio.

It is also obvious that the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began on February 24, 2022, which is essentially a struggle, is not only between Russia and Ukraine, but between Russia and Western countries (about 6 dozen countries), which means that in the conditions of the reduction of the global GDP growth rate, especially the export growth rate will decrease and the size of the external debt will increase significantly, which makes the relationship between the external debt and the above-mentioned macroeconomic indicators even more threatening.

REFERENCES

1. Explanatory Dictionary of the Most Useful Economic Terms, "Legal Plus" ed., Yerevan 2008, p. 132

2. Khachatryan, Narine, "Public Debt", Teacher of the subject "Social Science" of Vanadzor D. Varuzhan Primary School N 16, Vanadzor 2022,

3. Markosyan, Ashot and Vahagn Khachaturyan et al., "Economics of the Modern State. the Toolkit of State Regulation of the Economy", Yer., Antares ed., 2020, p. 455459.

https://lib.armedu.am/files/resource/files/2022-12-13/82bd5b7ca548f19f0b9b8049955c73a0.docx. Accessed: 07 July 2023.

4. Wolff, Jessica, The Political Economy of Fiscal Decisions: The Strategic Role of Public Debt. - Heidelberg; New York: Physica-Verl., 1998, p. 1

5. International Debt Statistics, World Bank, https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS. Accessed: 07 July 2023.

6. Statistical Yearbook of Armenia, Armenia 2017, page 448.

7. Statistical Yearbook of Armenia, Armenia 2022, page 508.

8. Tin Yu To, Anthony and Agarwal, Parul, "Get to know the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS)", MAY 18, 2023, https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/get-know-world-banks-debtor-reporting-system-drs, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

9. "External Debt Stocks, Total (DOD, current US$)", International Debt Statistics, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.DOD.DECT.CD, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

10. "International Debt Report 2022", Updated International Debt Statistics, World Bank Group, 2022, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/49da23a2-bcc9-5593-bc96-470cae6b3665/content, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

11. Gaspar, Vitor et al., External debt, "Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion", December 15, 2021,

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

12. "Global Debt Database", Public Debt, IMF, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

13. "Total Public Debt Worldwide, 2005-2017", Statista Research Department, Aug 5, 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/686067/global-public-debt/#:~:text=In%202015%2C%20the%20total%20public,doubled%20between%202005 %20and%202015, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

14. "Government Debts Crossed $41 Trillion Globally in 2010: McKinsey", The Economic Times, Aug 15, 2011, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/government-debts-crossed-41-trillion-globally-in-2010-mckinsey/articleshow/9610460.cms?from=mdr, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

15. Srivastava, Spriha, "Global Debt Surged to a Record $250 Trillion in the First Half of 2019, Led by the US and China", World Economy, CNBS, Nov 15 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/15/global-debt-surged-to-a-record-250-trillion-in-the-first-half-of-2019-led-by-the-us-and-china.html, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

16. "Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences", "Ch. 1: Debt: Evolution, Causes, and Consequences", The World Bank, Washington DC, December 19, 2019, https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/waves-of-debt, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

17. "Global Debt Database", Public Debt, Central Government Debt, percent of GDP IMF, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/CG DEBT GDP@GDD/SWE, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

18. "External Debt Stocks, Total (DOD, current US$)", World Development Indicators, Data Bank, The World Bank, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=DT.DOD.DECT.CD&coun try=#, Accessed: 07 July 2023.

^UUUC^UP^U3hL ЬЧ SUPUCUCPSUL U3hL ^UPS£U3hL BOLUrfUUC

UCnS UUP4nU3UL

«UUPbPH-» hbшшqnшшЦшh Ijhlmpnlj шЦшд фпрдшдЬт, lлlmhuшqjmnLpJшl qntymnp, щрпфЬипр, f. Ьр^шЬ, ^шJшumшUj ^шlpшщhmnLpJnLl

tL3ULnPU UU©bM.n U3UL

ЯЯ Q-jmnLpjnLllhpj шqqшJjl шЦшцЬфш,

шЬЦшЬ lлlmhuшqfimnLpJшl jUumjmnLm, «ишЦрптЬтЬишЦшЬ hjUlшfalqjplhp LL фрЬшЬиЬЬр» qjmш|шU nLqqnLpJшU qb|шЦшp, lлlmhuшqfimnLpJшl рЬЦЬшдпц qngblrn, f. ЬpLшЬ,^шJшumшЬj ^шlpшщhmnLpJnLl

UbPnhdUL UUP4nU3UL

«вшqшfшqjmш|шU, jpшЦшqjmш|шU Ll mUmbuшqjmш|шU hhmшqnmnLpJnLШhph Ll I|шl^шmbunLUlbpj» lлlmbuшqjmnLpJшl рЬЦЬшдпц f. ЬpLшЬ,^шJшumшЬjj ^шlpшщbmnLpJnLl

ЯшJш2faшпhшJ|ú múmbunLp^ú qLnpшLшgJшú U múmbuшlшú |úmbqпüшú ^ппшдйшЪ щшJJшúúbпnLJ шптшр^Ъ щшптвд hшúпbu t qшLiu |ú^bu hшJш2faшпhшJ|ú múmbunLp^ú, uijú^bu tL шпшЪб^Ъ mшпшöш2п2шúúbп| U fanLÜp bпlпúbп| фn^hшпшpbпnLpJnLÚúbп^ JnLПшhшmnLl <óU: Уптшр^ щшптрЪ шqпnLJ t ьпцпь ЦшпlnLÚшlnLpjшú U ъьп^ппп.ььп^ uщшubL|púbп| Цпш: ЪйшЪ hшúqшJшúpQ ЪпшЪд U|2U umbnönLÜ t |ú^bu фnfalшfaЦшönLpJnLÚúbп|, uijú^bu tL фnfalшщЦшönLpJnLÚúbп| JnLПшhшmnL4 2ПРш: UmшgЦnLJ t |пшЦ|бш1, bпp

<ФППП0 1ш^Цш6 bú U 1шщЦш0 bú pnLnпig»: UlúbпU t, пп шптшр^Ъ щшптрр

фп^штЦш^шй lшщ|mшL| шnшú6úшhшmnLl óU t, ппо, |ú^bu дпцд bú Фп2^ mшuúшUjшlnLJ hшJш2faшпhшJ|ú múmbunLp^ú qшпqшgJшú gnLgшú|2úbПQ, UjnLu h|Uúшlшú Jшlпnmúmbuшlшú gnLgшú|2úbп| (^ЬУ, шптшр^ шnUmпш2П2шúшnnLpJnLÚ, uijn p^lu шпmшhшúnLJ U úbпUпLöпLU) hшUbUшm nLú| шnш2шúg|l qnпöшl|g:

ЯппЦш0| úщшmшlú t nLunLUúшu|пbL, qúшhшmbL U pшúшlшlшú ^шфJшú búpшпlbL шптшр^ щbmшlшú щшптр| oqmшqnпöJшú шпПJnLÚшЦbmnLpjnLÚQ, JшuúшЦnпшщbU úшfaliú ЮnпhппшJ^ú U|nLp^ú bпlпúbп| U ЯшпшЦш^ ЧпЦ^ши^ mшпшöш2п2шú^ bпlпúbп| hшJшmbpumnLJ: Ujn úщшmшl|ú hшuúbLпL hшJшп ППЦЬ U LnLÖ4bL bú hbmU^L ^п^ьпо"

• qúшhшmbL шптшр^ щbmшlшú щшптр| шqпbgnLpJnLÚQ múmbuшlшú шб|, |ú^bu úшU шптшр^ шnUmпш2П2шúшnnLpJшú, oijrç p^lu шпmшhшúJшú U úbпUnLÖJшú ^шфьп^ Цпш:

ЯnпЦшönLJ ЦпшпЦ^ bú q|mшlшú ЦbпшgшпlnLUúbп| (шpumпшhJшú), |únnLlg|uij| U nbnnujg^j^, фбшlшqпшlшú 2шп^ьп| pшgшпôшl U hшJbJшmшlшú шпПJnLÚшЦbmnLpJшú qúшhшmJшú, u|úpbq| U múmbuшlшú gnLgшú|2úbп| ^^nLÓ^p^ú JbpnпúbПQ: Угсш2шп1Цш0 JbpnпшpшúnLpJшú h|^ú Цпш ^шфЦ^ U qúшhшmЦbL t шптшр^ щbmшЦшú щшптр| шqпbgnLpJnLÚQ цьпо ú2Цшö gnLgшú|2úbп| Цпш:

nLunLU^u^nLp^ú шпПJnLÚßnLJ щшпqЦbL t, пп шптшр^ щbmшЦшú щшптр| Ubl snlnu шбр hшúqbgпbL t"

• шптшр^ щшптр| шб| mbü^ I ЯЪУ-| шб| mbü^ hшпшpbпшЦgnLpJшú 2015p.-|ú 1.2, |ul 2021p.-|ú 4.0,

• шптшр^ щшптр| шб| mbü^ I шптшр^ шnUmпш2П2шúшnnLpjшú шб| mbü^ hшJшщшmшufaшúшpшП 2015p.-|ú 1.2, |ul 2021 3.9,

• шптшр^ щшптр| шб| mbü^ I шпmшhшúJшú шб| mbü^, hшJшщшmшu№шúшpшП 2015p.-|ú 1.2, |ul 2021p.-|ú 3.9,

• шптшр^ щшптр| шб| mbü^Q I úbпünLöJшú шб| mbü^|ú bnbL bú hшaшщшmшu^шúшpшп" 2015p.-|ú* 1.2, |ul 2021p.-|ú" 4.0:

nLus| щbmnLpJшú múmbuшlшú ßшпшßшlшúnLpJшú Ub2 ú2шúшlшL|g t ПшnúnLJ шпmшß|ú щшптр| úbпqпшЦJшú щшmбшnúbп| pшgшhшJmnLJQ: ЯшJш2^шпhшJ|ú щшптрш^ бqúшdшJ| hшJшJÚшщшmlbпnLJ JnLПшhшmnLl sbn bú qpшпbgúnLJ шnшúó|ú mшпшöш2п2шúúbп| U fanLÜp bпlпúbп| ung|шL-múmbuшlшú qшпqшgJшú 2шПßnLJ щшптр| gnLgшú|2úbп| J|mnLUúbп| nLunLUúшu|пnLpJnLÚQ U ЦbПLnLönLpJnLÚQ:

Я^йЬшршпЬр4 шpmшpfiU Lцшpmp, tyшpбшdшЩbm U bptyшpшdшЩbm u|шpmp, Lцшpmpfi pbn, шpmшpfiU шnUmpш2P2шUшnnLpJnLU, шщpшUpUbpfi U ôшnшJnLpJnLUUbpfi шpшшhшUnLd U UbpdnLónLÜ, hшdшfaшnh Ubppfib шpq.JnLUß, LL|шpmpfi шбfi qnpöшWg:

ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЙ И РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЙ ДОЛГОВОЙ КРИЗИС

АШОТ МАРКОСЯН

старший эксперт исследовательского центра «Амберд» АГЭУ, доктор экономических наук, профессор, г. Ереван, Республика Армения

ЭЛЯНОРА МАТЕВОСЯН

руководитель научного направления «Макроэкономические проблемы и финансы» Института экономики им. М. Котаняна Национальной академии наук РА, кандидат экономических наук, доцент, г. Ереван, Республика Армения

МЕРУЖАН МАРКОСЯН

Общественная организация «Политологических, юридических и экономических исследований и прогнозирований», кандидат экономических наук, г. Ереван, Республика Армения

В условиях глобализации мировой экономики и углубления экономической интеграции внешний долг предстает как своеобразная форма отношений мировой экономики с отдельными регионами и группами стран. Внешний долг влияет на кредитоспособность страны и ожидания инвесторов. Это обстоятельство создает своеобразную цепь взаимозависимостей и взаимосвязей между основными макроэкономическими показателями, и, как следствие, создается ситуация, когда «все зависят и связаны со всеми». Очевидно, что внешний долг представляет собой особую форму ссудного капитала, который, как видно из показателей развития мировой экономики за последнее десятилетие, имеет опережающий коэффициент роста по сравнению с другими основными макроэкономическими показателями (ВВП, внешнеторгового оборота, включая экспорт и импорт).

Целью данной статьи является изучение, оценка и измерение эффективности использования внешнего государственного долга в контексте стран бывшего Советского Союза, а также стран Южнокавказского региона. Для достижения этой цели были поставлены и решены следующие задачи: оценить влияние внешнего государственного долга на экономический рост, а также внешнеторговый оборот, включая экспорт и импорт.

В статье использованы методы научной абстракции, индукции и дедукции, абсолютной и сравнительной оценки эффективности статистических показателей, синтез экономических показателей. На основе предложенной методики измерено и оценено влияние внешнего государственного долга на вышеуказанные показатели. Исследование показало, что увеличение внешнего государственного долга на один процент привело к следующим изменениям:

• темп роста внешнего долга / темп роста ВВП составил 1,2 в 2015 году и 4,0 в 2021 году,

• темп роста внешнего долга / темп роста внешней торговли составил 1,2 в 2015 году и 3,9 в 2021 году,

• темп роста внешнего долга / темп роста экспорта составил 1,2 в 2015 году и 3,9 в 2021 году,

• темпы роста внешнего долга / темп роста импорта составили 1,2 в 2015 году и 4,0 в 2021 году.

Результаты исследования показывают, что важным в экономической политике государства становится обоснование причин привлечения внешнего долга. Изучение и анализ тенденций показателей, характеризующих долговые обязательства, в числе показателей социально-экономического развития отдельных регионов и групп стран занимают уникальное место в контексте изучения мирового долгового кризиса.

Ключевые слова: внешний долг, краткосрочный и долгосрочный долг, долговое бремя, внешнеторговый оборот, экспорт и импорт товаров и услуг, валовой внутренний продукт, коэффициент роста долга.