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8) Energy generation, agriculture and development of communications are the most promising spheres for economic cooperation and economic progress of Kyrgyzstan;
9) Russia is interested in establishing stability in Kyrgyzstan and strengthening its long-term influence on the republic because of its cultural and geopolitical position. Russia is ready to invest real money in the real economy of Kyrgyzstan, instead of giving grants for "democratization" or any other geopolitical projects, provided the political vector of Kyrgyzstan's leadership is responsible and predictable.
"Vnutripoliticheskoye i sotsialino-ekonomicheskoye razvitiye Kyrgyzstana," Moscow, 2011, pp. 132-136.
L. Vasilyev,
Senior research associate of IFES RAS
THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION
IN CENTRAL ASIA
The Central Asian region occupies an important geostrategic position. Geographically, it is the shortest possible route from the Caucasus and the Middle East to the countries of East, South and North Asia. It provides the best opportunities to control transit routes, as well as the deep-lying districts of the biggest states of Asia - China, India and Russia.
In the present conditions the significance of the Central Asian region has considerably increased in its geo-economic aspect. The presence of rich deposits of oil and gas, uranium, gold and other non-ferrous metals and rare earth elements, combined with convenient conditions for laying out international communication lines, attracts many world powers. Right after the disintegration of the Soviet Union
at the end of the 20th century there were several countries - Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran, apart from Russia, - fighting for influence in the region, whereas now a virtual war is going on between the leading world investors (the United States, China, Japan, India, Russia, and the European Union) for access to the raw material resources of the region, and also for control over the routes of their transportation.
It should be noted that at the end of the 20th century the development of the political situation in the region was strongly influenced by the new sovereign states of Central Asia, which had for a long time been parts first of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union. On the one hand, it allowed the feudal states of Central Asia to make a qualitative leap forward in their economic and political development. But on the other hand, these evolutionary leaps had also certain negative consequences.
Due to the absence of experienced and skilled local personnel the Soviet leadership was forced to resort to extensive migration of the population from the European part of the country to these republics, which caused a certain "Russification" of their state and public life. Apart from that, the absence of practically all basic branches of a modern industry on the territory of the region, plus a big shortage of experienced and skilled personnel, was the main reason for giving a raw material character to their economies. Finally, centralized power in the conditions of a unitary state considerably retarded the development of local self-government, which, in turn, lowered the level and capabilities of the local authorities.
As a result, after proclamation of their state sovereignty the new Central Asian countries had to create new power and administrative bodies, the army, police, etc. in the conditions of a great shortage of time and financial and other means, which had a negative effect on their
quality and efficiency. Apart from that, the local elite of certain states of Central Asia in their desire to protect national sovereignty from possible threats on the part of Russia has decided to oust non-indigenous nationalities living in these states, mainly Slav nationalities, from their territory. This proved to be an additional blow at the socioeconomic situation in young states, which aggravated the state of affairs.
Besides, in the conditions of national rebirth interstate relations in the region have exacerbated, and this included: \
- territorial disputes;
- incompleteness of the demilitarization process of their borders;
- problems of supplies of energy and raw material resources;
- distribution of transborder water resources;
- presence of enclaves and places of compact residence of non-indigenous peoples;
- transborder trade and development of adjacent territories;
- unregulated migration of the population;
- transit cargo transportation through territories of neighboring
states;
- different orientations of the states of the region in the foreign-policy and domestic-policy spheres.
Proceeding from the existing situation the Central Asian countries have chosen a many-vector strategy of their foreign policy. This was largely a result of the unpreparedness of Russia, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, to evolve an adequate policy with regard to the development of cooperation with these countries in the present conditions.
The policy of western countries toward the Central Asian region has always been based on the preservation of the priority of their national interests. It should be noted that the protection of the
traditional western values - democracy and human rights in Central Asia - is no longer a priority matter for western countries, and is now used as a means to protect their economic and political interests. However, quite a few processes going on in Central Asia are regarded by western political figures from their own point of view, which sometimes leads to distortion of reality and formation of false stereotypes.
At present Central Asian states are developing their own statehood, and each nation living there has the firm desire to establish its self-identification and take its own place in the world community. International relations in the Central Asian region, even bilateral relations, often acquire multilateral character envisaging participation (official or unofficial) of other regional or outside actors in them. However, it should be borne in mind that the ethnocultural specific features, historical development path, and the modern situation of the peoples of Central Asia do not provide a favorable foundation so far for building a democratic state by western standards. On the contrary, forcing the western standards of the way of life and state structure will lead to the exacerbation of the situation and chaos in Central Asian countries.
Analyzing the influence of negative foreign-policy factors on the Central Asian region one can draw the conclusion that the main contradiction knots in the policy toward it pursued by the world powers are a s follows:
- the desire of certain states to ensure their leading positions in the region with a view to establishing effective control over the possible development ways of the emerging political situation;
- the struggle for the right to possess the resources of the region, as well as control over strategic interregional communications;
- rivalry in the supplies of arms and military equipment to the region, as well as material-technical provision of the armed forces of Central Asian states;
- rivalry for influence on the leaders of Central Asian countries;
- striving for control over the strategic branches of the industry of regional states;
- rivalry in the cultural and educational sphere and attempts to dominate the minds of local young people.
It should be noted that the region is playing a major role in the sphere of security. The specificity of its geographical position, on the one hand, makes it a convenient object of attack by Islamic extremists from the southern and south-western directions, and on the other, it is a buffer for such countries as Russia and China, from these extremists. Besides, practically in all states of the region there are considerable groups of the population propagandizing the ideas of separatism and Islamic extremism and using the methods and means of terrorism to achieve their aims.
Such situation in the Central Asian states is conditioned by internal socio-political and ideological reasons. Summing up the internal political reasons for instability in the countries of the region it is possible to reveal their main groups which are inherent, as a rule, in all states of the region. They include:
- economic and social crisis, unemployment and impoverishment of a considerable part of the population;
- keen feeling of social exclusion and defenselessness in a considerable part of the population;
- considerable growth of social stratification of society;
- de-industrialization of the economy and marginalization of a considerable part of the population, mostly young people, connected with it;
- loss by many people of ideological and spiritual orientations, destruction of moral values, distortion of premises of traditional Islam and the growing influence of its radical trends;
- ethnic and religious conflicts, and radical changes of world outlook caused by major social upheavals.
Indicative in this respect is the fact that for ten years the leaders of regional states succeeded in changing the political establishment rather painlessly, even in crisis situations, like the sudden death of Saparmurad Niyazov in Turkmenistan, and keeping the situation under control. The main specific feature of the political regimes in Central Asia is their common tendency: on the one hand, authoritarianism, personification of power, and on the other, the desire to modernize the political system and build a modern state.
However, frequent changes of government in Central Asian states and uncertain position of officials in connection with constant personnel changes lead to the insufficient and ineffective use of the existing potential. As a result, state interests are subordinated to private interests of individual persons and groupings, and their confrontation is fraught with serious risks for a country's stability.
It should be noted that the Central Asian states can stably develop and integrate only on condition of regional stability and a proper geopolitical balance. Among the possible negative foreign-policy factors of the worsening geopolitical situation in the region are:
1. Difference of the views of the leaders of Central Asian states in determining the strategic priorities of development, which seriously hampers the process of regional integration.
2. Rivalry in solving general problems of the region with a view to receiving maximal dividends for one's own country, which leads to the establishment of barriers in trade and border problems of
neighboring states, and also causes interethnic tension, mistrust and conflicts.
3. Different level of the economic development of the countries of the region, which lowers the effectiveness of solutions of common problems facing the Central Asian region.
4. Close proximity to unstable Afghanistan and Pakistan, persisting threat of penetration of large groups of Islamic extremists in the region, as well as the presence of separatist and extremist movements on the territory of the Central Asian countries themselves.
5. Possibility of turning Central Asia into one of the world's "trouble spots" in an event of the aggravation of rivalry between the world powers in the region with all ensuing consequences.
"Mirovye derzhavy v Tsentralnoi Azii, "Moscow, 2011, pp. 7-12.
Dina Malysheva,
D. Sc. (Politics), Institute of World Economy
& International Relations,
Russian Academy of Sciences
THE "ARAB SPRING" AS SEEN
BY RUSSIAN SCHOLARS. "THE MIDDLE EAST,
ARAB AWAKENING AND RUSSIA: WHAT NEXT?"
The book under review (published in Moscow in 2012) is a jointly written monograph thoroughly analyzing a very complex and contradictory phenomenon of the "Arab spring," or "Arab awakening." The authors reveal a broad range of competing interests and numerous factors and prerequisites which have determined the original features of the wave of protest sweeping the Middle East. Besides, the book gives a detailed forecast of the further turn of events and scenarios of the
