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POLITICAL SCIENCES
THE EVOLUTION AND THE PRESENT SPECIFICITY OF THE U.S.-LED HUB-AND-SPOKE SYSTEM IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION Neradovskikh A.D. (Russian Federation) Email: [email protected]
Neradovskikh Anastasia Dmitrievna - Student, DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY «HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS», MOSCOW
Abstract: the article analyzes the Hub-and-Spoke system created by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region during the Cold War. Based on bilateral relations, this system has undergone a number of significant changes over more than 60 years. The San Francisco system has made a significant contribution to the joint training of U.S. and allied forces. Despite all the advantages, the continued existence of the hub-and-speak system is being questioned due to the absolute U.S. dominance in the region and the ambiguous policy of Donald Trump.
Keywords: the USA, Asia-Pacific region, Hub-and-spoke system, bilateral alliances, the Cold War, communism, Japan, China, Trump.
ЭВОЛЮЦИЯ И СОВРЕМЕННАЯ СПЕЦИФИКА АМЕРИКАНСКОЙ ВЕЕРНОЙ (HUB-AND-SPOKE) СИСТЕМЫ В АЗИАТСКО-ТИХООКЕАНСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ Нерадовских А.Д. (Российская Федерация)
Нерадовских Анастасия Дмитриевна - студент, департамент международных отношений, Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», г. Москва
Аннотация: в статье анализируется веерная система (Hub-and-Spoke), созданная Соединенными Штатами Америки в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе в период Холодной войны. Основанная на двусторонних отношениях, данная система за более чем 60 лет претерпела ряд существенных изменений. Система Сан-Франциско внесла значительный вклад в совместную подготовку американских и союзнических войск. Несмотря на все преимущества, дальнейшее существование системы Hub-and-Spoke ставится под сомнение из-за абсолютного доминирования США в регионе и неоднозначной политики Дональда Трампа.
Ключевые слова: США, Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион, веерная система, двусторонние альянсы, Холодная война, коммунизм, Япония, Китай, Трамп.
УДК 327.8
DOI: 10.24411/2542-0798-2020-17201
The U.S.-led Hub-and-Spoke system is a system of bilateral alliances between the United States and such Asia-Pacific countries as Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea and Australia. This system was initiated after World War II, namely in 1951, when the United States and Japan signed a Treaty on cooperation and security. The original far-reaching objective of the United States to conclude such agreements was to control the Asia-Pacific countries as much as possible in the postwar period to deter the possible threat from the USSR.
In the postwar years, the U.S. presidents Harry S. Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower believed in the 'domino' effect which stated that if one Asia-Pacific country fell to communism, the rest of the region could become communistic consequently [4]. Thus, one of the conflicting party in the Cold War, aspiring to become the world hegemon, wanted to completely take under control the
Asia-Pacific countries in a military and economic sense, fearing the Soviet threat. Apart from that, Washington saw the idea of bilateral agreements in the Asia-Pacific region as an opportunity to curb Japan's militarism and respond flexibly to potential threats in cooperation with other states of the region. Therefore, the United States considered the hub-and-spoke system quite advantageous both at that time and in the future.
Gradually the U.S.-led Hub-and-Spoke system, also known as San Francisco system after the San Francisco conference in 1951, has been evolving and contributed to the prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region for more than 60 years. All these years, the U.S. remained the only country in the region capable of suppressing the growing threat and promoting peace. Case in point, bilateral alliances with Asia-Pacific countries let the United States sustain over 360 thousand of military forces, 200 ships and 1500 aircrafts in the region [2]. What is more, the San Francisco system has been effective for more than half a century due to the fact that it has created opportunities for joint training of U.S. and allied troops to promote strategic and tactical interests.
However, notwithstanding all the advantages, the Hub-and-Spoke system has some significant risks. Above all, none of the Asia-Pacific countries has sufficient military capability, which leads to the fact that they do not always pay 'fairly' for bilateral alliances with the United States. At the same time, the U.S. president Donald Trump constantly calls on allies to increase military spending. Besides, unlike the bipolar regime during the Cold War, the current international regime can be called multipolar, where China is making efforts to supplant the U.S. from the region. In addition, some countries of the region are concerned that the United States could either leave countries in decline or drag them into their own crisis [5]. For instance, the United States may engage Asia-Pacific countries into confrontation with China, which causes concern of many states in the region.
Nowadays, there are threats of undermining the U.S. bilateral alliances with the Asia-Pacific countries. This is happening due to the fact that Donald Trump pursues unsustainable and unpredictable policy in the region, which often erodes the trust of allies. The personality of the U.S. present president can contribute to the destabilization of the region, undermining the confidence of Asian countries in the United States, and, consequently, a possible revision of their positions on security issues. After Trump demanded that Japan and South Korea increase support for U.S. troops and suspended U.S.-South Korean exercises, the Asia-Pacific countries questioned whether the current U.S. policy under bilateral agreements is in their national interests [3]. In addition, the recent divergence of views between Japan and South Korea on reparations for forced labor during the Japanese occupation also calls into question the stability of the Hub-and-Spoke system in the near future. This confrontation occurred against the background of the failure of the US diplomacy, gradually displacing the country from the system of bilateral alliances and not allowing the United States to control all military issues between the Asia-Pacific countries.
Nevertheless, the US-led Hub-and Spoke system is still evolving. Firstly, in the last decade U.S. alliances with Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines have been updated to suit each ally's strategic circumstances [6]. The main objective of the U.S. with Asia-Pacific countries nowadays is to show the others that the United States are increasing military potential and call on allies to contribute more. Secondly, Washington actively supports bilateral and multilateral ties between the Asian countries themselves. Case in point, Japan provides maritime security assistance to the Philippines and cooperates with Australia on defense technology and maritime security as well [1]. Finally, recently the U.S. have been strengthening ties throughout the region, involving the countries of Southeast and South Asia. The United States have shifted focus to strengthening their partnerships with such countries as India, Vietnam, and Singapore, and have committed $ 425 million to a Maritime security initiative with the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam [1]. Therefore, the United States are trying to preserve the Hub-and-Spoke system adopted in the postwar years and adapt it to the changes that have occurred over the past few decades.
Thus, the Hub-and Spoke system built by the United States more than 60 years ago needs to adapt to recent changes and possibly revise bilateral agreements with each country individually to find more common ground. Currently, this system faces numerous difficulties, taking into account the ambiguous personality of the U.S. president Donald Trump and the internal contradictions of
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the Asia-Pacific states. The increasing influence of China in the region may pose a great threat to
the San Francisco system due to the reorientation of the countries of the region from the United
States to China. Therefore, the continued existence of the system is still being questioned.
References / Список литературы
1. Can the Philippines and Australia elevate their partnership to a strategic level? // The Diplomat. August 16, 2019. [Electronic Resource]. URL:: https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/can-the-philippines-and-australia-elevate-their-partnership-to-a-strategic-level/ (date of access: 16.07.2020).
2. Diversifying bilateral security relations beyond the US Hub-and-Spoke alliance system. // Republic of the Philippines. Foreign Service Institute. [Electronic Resource]. URL: http://www.fsi.gov.ph/diversifying-bilateral-security-relations-beyond-the-us-hub-and-spoke-alliance-system/ (date of access: 16.07.2020).
3. Pacific Rift: The US alliance system in Asia under duress. // Foreign Brief. Geopolitical risk analysis. September 18, 2019. [Electronic Resource]. URL: https://www.foreignbrief.com/asia-pacific/pacific-rift-the-us-alliance-system-in-asia-under-duress/ (date of access: 16.07.2020).
4. Powerplay: Origins of the U.S. Alliance System in Asia. // Harvard Kennedy School. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. [Electronic Resource]. URL: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/powerplay-origins-us-alliance-system-asia/ (date of access: 16.07.2020).
5. The Competitive Advantages and Risks of Alliances. // The Heritage Foundation. October 30, 2019. [Electronic Resource]. URL: https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/topical-essays/the-competitive-advantages-and-risks-alliances/ (date of access: 16.07.2020).
6. The Evolving US-Asia Alliance Network. // Australian Institute of International Affairs. October 26, 2016. [Electronic Resource]. URL: http://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/the-evolving-us-asia-alliance-network/ (date of access: 16.07.2020).
