Научная статья на тему 'The EU strategy for Central Asia - 2019: goals, challenges and prospects'

The EU strategy for Central Asia - 2019: goals, challenges and prospects Текст научной статьи по специальности «Политологические науки»

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KAZAKHSTAN / EUROPEAN UNION / ENERGY SECTOR / COOPERATION / TRANSPORT POTENTIAL

Аннотация научной статьи по политологическим наукам, автор научной работы — Kilybayeva P., Ibrayeva A., Mametay M.

This article is devoted to the analysis of the EU policy in Central Asia, Europe's interest in the region hasn`t diminished, but, on the contrary, has increased. For Europe, Central Asian countries are valuable as new markets for products. The authors consider the various EU activities in the region.

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Текст научной работы на тему «The EU strategy for Central Asia - 2019: goals, challenges and prospects»

THE EU STRATEGY FOR CENTRAL ASIA - 2019: GOALS, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

P.Kilybayeva, A.Ibrayeva, M.Mametay L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University abdullaevna_96@mail.ru

This article is devoted to the analysis of the EU policy in Central Asia, Europe's interest in the region hasn^t diminished, but, on the contrary, has increased. For Europe, Central Asian countries are valuable as new markets for products. The authors consider the various EU activities in the region.

Key words: Kazakhstan, European Union, energy sector, cooperation, transport potential.

In 2007, the Council of the European Union adopted the document the EU and Central Asia: strategy for a new partnership in which the common foreign policy strategy for the member countries of the region was consolidated in relation to the Central Asian region. The strategy was very extensive and envisaged cooperation and development of relations between Europe and Central Asia in the field of energy, combating terrorism and border protection, education (European educational initiative), development of legislation and law, human rights protection. At the same time, various approaches and ways of implementation were envisaged for each sphere, implying both a multilateral, region-wide format and deepening relations with specific countries in the region [1-3].

The main drawback of the 2007 EU strategy was its comprehensive nature, with the obvious shortage of effective instruments and low interest of the Central Asian countries. Often their leaders started joint educational or legal programs, only in order to receive material assistance. Therefore, despite the general attractiveness of the European strategy for the countries of Central Asia and the high activity of the EU itself, it hasn't been realized. Four times the strategy was amended and supplemented to improve its effectiveness, but the proposed initiatives and joint programs had almost no result. The economic backwardness of Central Asia has increased, its share in the world division of labor has remained minimal, the situation in the field of human rights and the development of democratic state institutions has deteriorated, which together has led to the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and radicalism in the region and made Central Asia less stable [4] .

At the same time, despite the failure of the EU policy in Central Asia, Europe's interest in the region hasn't diminished, but, on the contrary, has increased. And the most attractive sphere of cooperation between the EU and Central Asia was and is energy. In the period from 2007 to 2017, the natural need of the EU countries for energy resources not only increased due to the reduction in domestic production, but, more importantly, serious changes occurred in the European oil and gas market. After the fall of world prices for hydrocarbons in 2014, the competition between major European suppliers - Russia, Norway and Algeria - has multiplied. In addition, under the circumstances, appeared a new player in Europe - the United States.

At the moment, American liquefied gas accounts for a small share in European imports, but by 2020 Washington plans to increase exports to 96 billion cubic meters [5]. The successful implementation of American plans, and this is what President Trump intends to do, judging by his speech in Poland on July 6, 2017, will not only increase the EU's dependence on the United States, but also provoke internal contradictions between the members of the organization. For some European countries, particularly Germany, increasing American influence on European affairs is highly undesirable, while, for example, for Eastern Europe (especially Poland), such a scenario, on the contrary, is seen as natural and promising [6]. In this connection, the issue of the need to diversify energy imports in order to protect their own sovereignty and political stability has become more relevant to Europe than it is to explain the increased interest of Europeans in alternative regions of oil and gas production - to Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq and the countries of Central Asia.

Another essential issue of relations between Europe and the countries of Central Asia is security and joint struggle against the threats of terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism and radicalism. The situation in this area in the period from 2007 to 2017. also significantly changed. The main center of instability moved from Afghanistan to Syria, where a protracted military and political crisis created a favorable environment for the spread of extremist ideologies and the emergence of new terrorist organizations. Both the European Union and Central Asia are under direct terrorist threat, as both regions are leading in terms of immigration indicators to join such groups as, for example, the Islamic State (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). Europe, which has been subjected to a series of major terrorist attacks, is actively seeking mechanisms to limit and control these processes. Located in close proximity to the region, Central Asia provides great opportunities for this. In addition, Central Asia itself was strongly influenced by radical Islam. Therefore, the second important motive of the EU in the region is the intention to maintain its stability and prevent the transformation of Central Asia into a new hotbed of terrorist activity [2, 7].

Finally, transport and infrastructure are the third area in which the interests of the European Union and Central Asia intersect. The potential for cooperation in this field is really great. First, for Europe, Central Asian countries are valuable as new

markets for products. Today's level of trade between the EU and the countries of Central Asia is far from the potential level, therefore the European business is strongly interested in the development of infrastructure in the region, which will bring the trade relations to a new level. Secondly, the transit potential of Central Asia is no less important for Europe, because in the long term it can connect it with the largest European trading partner, China, which is also very active in this direction, in particular, within the framework of the One Belt, One Way . Of course, the Central Asian countries in the heart of Eurasia are enthusiastically ready to accept any new projects that simplify access to world markets.

Given the degree of interest of Europe in the Central Asian region, it is quite natural that the recent announcement that at a meeting in Luxembourg on June 19, 2017, the foreign ministers of the European Union countries agreed on the formation of a new foreign policy strategy for Central Asia by 2019, which will replace the obsolete morally and politically the document of 2007 [8]

In the final document of the meeting of the Council of International Relations of the EU of June 19, 2017, it is noted that the European Union regards the Central Asian countries as important partners, relations with which should be developed and expanded, and the need for adopting a new foreign policy strategic concept is recognized [9]. The additional protocol of the meeting of the Council on Foreign Affairs reflects some of the theses that will be included in it. In particular, it says that relations between Europe and the countries of Central Asia will preserve both old and proven mechanisms and initiatives (in the sphere of education, protection of human rights and assistance in the development of democratic institutions), and new . Particular emphasis is placed on the problems of security, infrastructure development and the economies of the countries of the region. The EU's interest in joining Central Asia to the Southern Gas Corridor project was noted. Much attention was paid by the Council of International Relations to specific problems of Central Asia, such as, for example, water shortages, unemployment, poverty, inequality, border security, illegal trafficking in arms, drugs and the slave trade. The most important feature of the new strategy should be its homogeneity and effectiveness. For these purposes, it is expected to carefully harmonize the policies of the EU member states both among themselves and with special multilateral institutions, closely monitor the implementation of regional initiatives, actively engage in information support of European policy in Central Asia through the development of educational programs, local independent media and the involvement of international organizations - the Council of Europe, the OSCE, the United Nations [10].

At first glance it might seem that the new strategic approach of the European Union towards Central Asia differs little from the strategy of 2007, but a closer look at it in the context of the current interests of the EU shows that the differences are significant. From the comprehensive nature of the 2007 strategic concept, Europeans

have come to a better understanding of their own national interests. The EU foreign ministers demonstrated that the organization will primarily focus on those areas in Central Asia that are of the greatest interest to it - the development of energy, the economy, infrastructure and security in the region. Other elements of the European policy in education, public administration, human rights, etc. will also be improved, however, to the extent and in those areas that are necessary for the successful implementation of the main objectives of the strategy. In addition, the intention of Europeans to make the strategy more effective, albeit at the expense of reducing its scale, is quite obvious [11].

Although the Europeans themselves recognize the limitations of their own capacities in Central Asia, Europe's more active policy in the region will lead to significant geopolitical shifts and changes in relations between the main regional players - the US, Russia and China. Targeting the European gas market, the United States, on the one hand, can enter into competition with Europe, and on the other, it is likely to support European policy, especially in the energy sector, since this will lead to additional contradictions between Russia and Europe, weaken position of Moscow and will open new niches for US suppliers in Europe. For China, which has long determined the main policy directions in Central Asia and is consistently engaged in creeping economic expansion, the emergence of a new player in the face of Europe in the region poses no great danger, but, on the contrary, is beneficial, as Europeans intend to strengthen regional security and the development of infrastructure and transport routes , which is for Beijing itself an important foreign policy goal. The least beneficial is the European policy in Central Asia for Russia, since the EU will not only seek to weaken its positions in the energy markets, but also gradually neutralize Moscow's political and ideological influence in the region.

At the same time, we shouldn't forget one more essential feature of European foreign policy. Often, the EU very qualitatively and in detail forms foreign policy strategic concepts, but not all of them are implemented in practice. Given the fate of the 2007 strategy, or, for example, the Eastern Partnership program, we should not rule out the possibility that the strategy of 2019 will suffer the same fate, and it will become no more than another declaration of intent.

References

1. The EU and Central Asia: Strategy for New Partnership. Council of the European Union, Brussels, 31 May 2007. URL: https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files /st_10113_2007 _init_en.pdf

2. Foreign policy of Kazakhstan. Edited by Zhanar Medeubaeva. - Editions du JIPTO, 2018. - 203 p.

3. Zhanbulatova R., Nurbaev Z., Zhiyentayeva K. La coopération entre le Kazakhstan et l'Union Européenne dans la sphère économique : l'état actuel et les perspectives // Bulletin de l'Académie Internationale CONCORDE, 2014, N 3, p. 77-82.

4. Boonstra J., Tsertsvadze T. Implementation and review of the European Union-Central Asia Strategy: Recommendations for EU action. European Parliament Think Tank,

2016. P. 4.

5. Elliot S. US LNG Vs Pipeline Gas: European Market Share War? S&P Global Pllats,

2017. URL: https://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/insightanalysis /industrysolutionpapers/sr-us-lng-pipeline-gas-european-market-share.pdf

6. Mazneva E., Donahue P., Shiryaevskaya A. Germany, Austria Tell U.S. Not to Interfere in EU Energy // Bloomberg. 15.06.2017 URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/u-s-toughens-stance-on-russian-gas-as-engie-defends-new-pipe.

7. Aunasova A., Aunasova Z. Zanbulatova R. La proliferation du djadidisme en Asie Centale / Bulletin d'EUROTALENT-FIDJIP, 2013, N 3, p. 8-11.

8. EU To Draw Up New Central Asia Strategy By Late 2019 // Radio Free Europe. 19.06.2017 URL: https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-central-asia-strategy-2019/28563536.html

9. Outcome of the 3551st Council Meeting. Foreign Affairs. Brussels, 19 June 2017. P.

11.

10. Council Conclusions on the EU strategy for Central Asia. Council of European Union. Brussels, 19 June 2017. 6 p.

11. EU: Ministers Approve Bloc's Central Asia Strategy // Eurasianet.org. 19.06.2017 URL: http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp061807.shtml

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