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THE ENERGY FACTOR IN THE BLACK
SEA REGION: CASE OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION, UKRAINE AND ROMANIA
Budurina-Goreacii Carolina, State University of Moldova, Chisinau, Moldova
Cebotari Svetlana, State University of Moldova, Chisinau, Moldova
E-mail: svetlana.cebotari@mail.ru
Abstract. The geopolitical stakes of the Black Sea region in the last decade have increased significantly, especially as a result of the events that caused the great European powers to turn their eyes to this space. While many assemble this area with the territory adjacent to the Caspian Sea, including the Southern Caucasus, the Black Sea region has much work to do. We say this because its consistency is too inhomogeneous to convey a unique, clear and representative message; the riparian states are too different and have national goals that are sometimes opposed; resources are unevenly distributed for this area, and this does not bring countries closer to cooperation, but rather rivals them.
In this context, the present article aims to analyse the interest of the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Romania on the energy factor in the Black Sea region. At the same time, we want to determine the influence of energy resources on the foreign policy directions of these states, the problems they are facing at the current stage, but also to design some action perspectives for the future.
Key words: energy factor, foreign policy, activities, Black Sea region, riparian states
Generally, at the moment in the Black Sea region integrative processes are taking place. While some countries have a clear vector of integration into the Euro-Atlantic communities, some are already members, the others only mimic the active interest in this phenomenon. However, most of them acknowledge the inevitability of the fact that only this is the solution for sustainable development of the region and countries. In order to attract the attention of Europe, the states in the region must begin a stable process of building a democratic society based on a transparent political system and a free market economy; the Black Sea riparian states must cooperate actively and efficiently promote confidence-building measures in this area as it is a significant transit region of energy resources destined mainly for the West.
But coming back to what the broader Black Sea region means, the concept has not received a definite explanation because of the lack of time to sediment a
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unanimously recognized acceptance. Due to the strictly geographical criterion, the Black Sea region includes the states that have direct access to the sea - Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia; and the term "extended" pushes the geographical boundaries of the region beyond the borders of the riverside [1, p.36]. There is also Moldova, linked to the spread of water through a system of rivers, as well as associated states - Azerbaijan, Greece and others. All these countries have ports with terminals for receiving and loading oil and condensate gas. At the same time, the Black Sea coast, approximately 4,000 km long, is unevenly distributed among the six riparian states: Turkey 34%, Ukraine 31% (before the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (officially - Autonomous Republic of Crimea), Russian Federation 15 %, Georgia 14%, Bulgaria 7% and Romania 6%.
All these states are linked by a system of common economic relations and problems that directly affect them all. Although many of them face different types of threats to national security, they all have the same problem regarding the lack of an alternative in the supply of energy resources of the country. It can be noted that the area has lately been more and more a key point of interest for the United States. It is a sign that, on the one hand, it has a strategic significance for them and, on the other, that the states bordering on this "friendly sea" will benefit from the US support and technical assistance. In this direction, Washington sees a strengthening of cooperation with the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey; and with the potential member states - Ukraine and Georgia. Thus, the states in the Pontic area only have to elaborate a common foreign policy plan so as to maximize the desire of the great powers to build an "energy bridge" that would unite the Caspian zone with central Europe.
Further on we want to emphasize the interest on the energy factor of the riparian states of the Black Sea region, namely Russian Federation, Ukraine and Romania. At the same time, we aim to determine the influence of energy resources on the foreign policy directions of these states, the problems they are facing at the current stage, but also to design some action perspectives for the future.
The Russian Federation is a country that tries to counterbalance the American presence in the area by using economic pressures in the system of energy dependency relations not only with neighbouring states - Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, but also European ones. The crisis which erupted at the end of 2005 - the beginning of 2006 was noted by the interruption of gas supplies by the Russian Federation, on the grounds that the Ukrainian side did not accept the contract with the new gas price, although there was a valid one until 2009. Then the aggressive policy of Russia envisaged the increase at prices for the Republic of Moldova, Armenia with 100% and for Ukraine by 400% [2, p. 204]. The problem regarding the supply of natural gas has continued from 2014 until now. After the Russian gas supplies to Ukraine were interrupted in the summer of 2015, Ukraine's gas supply was resumed on October 12, 2015, thanks to an agreement mediated by the European Union, according to which Kiev was to pay in advance the volumes of gas it wanted to purchase from Gazprom [3].
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The current Russian gas transit contract has expired at the end of 2019 [4]. And in December 2019, Russia and Ukraine agreed to sign a new five-year contract. They signed a package of documents that will allow the continuation of the Russian gas transit through the Ukrainian territory after December 31, 2019. Under the agreement, Gazprom paid Naftogaz $ 2.9 billion in compensation, as the Stockholm arbitration decided. At the same time, Naftogaz pledged to withdraw other lawsuits against Gazprom and not to introduce new ones.
We remind that the Republic of Moldova was one of the countries affected by the uncertainty of Russia and Ukraine regarding the signing of a new gas delivery agreement. In this regard, the Moldovan authorities have endeavoured to find alternative solutions in case the agreement between these two states risked not being signed. It is about the delivery of natural gas through the Trans-Balkan Corridor through which Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova were to ensure the reverse of natural gas [5].
In other words, in an effort not to lose its leadership status in the Black Sea region and in the Balkans, the Russian Federation is today developing strategies and tactics in all areas. Even its foreign policy claims to be peaceful, Russia has proven its influence several times, and has strengthened its relations with Greece and Turkey.
In carrying out its foreign policy, the Russian Federation used the energy factor as a blackmail tool in the case of very socialist states, or the energy used as a manipulation tool can become an economic weapon [6, p. 177]. Among these levers we mention: a) the interruption of deliveries (partial or total); b) threats with interruption of deliveries; c) pricing policy; d) creation of new debts; and hostile takeover of companies or infrastructure. Although not all these tactics have been applied in practice by the Russian Federation, it should be noted that its power is not to be neglected.
In this context, it is appropriate to mention Russia's foreign policy in its relations with Georgia, the sanctions it applies and the discriminatory policy against Georgian citizens. Although at a declarative level, Russia's position is to secure its territory near Georgia, it is understandable that Russia opposes to any project that would consider Georgia's territory to build bypass routes for gas and oil transport originated from Central Asia. Russia tends to strengthen not only its position as a regional leader, but also that of a world leader in the export of energy resources, supplying 40% of Europe's gas and 60% of Turkey's gas [7, p.4]. No wonder why Russia so vehemently opposed the Nabucco project and those who viewed Georgia as a transit country.
Ukraine is the second largest state in Europe and a major beneficiary of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Through its surface, equivalent to that of Germany and Great Britain together, with 42 million inhabitants (2018), it is one of the main states of the continent. If we also add the length of the coast to the Black Sea, Ukraine has an important geopolitical status, arousing the interest of the great western powers, through the possibility of influencing the ratio of forces in Central and Eastern Europe, in the Black Sea region, but also in relation to the Russian Federation [8, p. 14].
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Ukraine aspires to a status of regional power today, even if its ambitions are not yet supported by active initiatives or regional leadership. Ukraine is more concerned with maintaining the balance of forces through bilateral agreements with the countries of the Black Sea region, in particular with Turkey and Russia [9, p. 6]. Only after the appearance of the corridors needed for energy transport to the EU, Ukraine began to consider the Black Sea area as part of the enlarged Europe, which deserves more attention.
The Black Sea region should be defined as a natural space of Ukrainian interests. At the same time, it is stressed that Ukraine must play a significant role in organizing a new system of regional order. Ukraine's success would be if it succeeded in taking over the role of major carrier of Caspian oil to Europe. Ukraine has oil routes on east-west and north-south axes. The orientation of pro-western Ukraine in recent years has helped it to become an attractive state for the EU and NATO. By building the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline, Ukraine has been given the green light by Europeans to extend the route to central Poland and from there to Gdansk. These actions are stressing the Russian Federation and its plans to hold the monopoly in the area as an exporter with exclusive rights to the Caspian resources.
Due to inconsistent policies, Ukraine is misusing the opportunity to gain a leading position among regional oil carriers. The country even risks being excluded from this process, Kiev blaming Russia intensely for this, as it has actively developed transport corridors around Ukraine.
Romania. The Black Sea Basin plays an essential role for Romania's strategic position, not only because it represents a trans-continental transport corridor, linking Europe with Asia and the Near East, but also because of the fact that on the continental shelf of the Black Sea riparian countries important oil and gas deposits were discovered. In addition to the Black Sea energy resources, Romania also has naval and oil infrastructure, having refineries, drilling and extraction platforms, important commercial maritime infrastructures and military forces that can play a special role in the new geopolitical and Euro-Asian strategic architecture. According to analyses by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Bosphorus Strait, which delimits Asia from Europe, connecting the Marmara Sea with the Black Sea, is used for the transit of oil from the Caspian Sea region to the Mediterranean countries. The continental shelf of the Caspian Sea is one of the richest oil regions in the world. In 2009, approximately 2.9 billion barrels per day of crude oil crossed the strait, whose waterway is 17 miles long.
From the point of view of energy supply, a risk factor for the European community is a possible blockade of the Bosphorus. This situation would generate additional costs for the bypass routes, as well as the delay in delivering the necessary energy resources both in the energy industry and in the transport sector in the European Union.
For these reasons, the exploration, development and exploitation of crude oil and natural gas on the Romanian continental shelf of the Black Sea is an alternative source of supply of Europe with energy resources, but also a factor of stability for the European Union. Europe can thus reduce its dependence on external sources.
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At the same time, the infrastructure in Romania, as an integral part of the infrastructure in the EU, plays an important role for the safety of European transport. The Romanian contribution to the improvement of cross-border transport is realized by knowing and preventing the specific risks and vulnerabilities. According to the Romanian Association of Oil Exploration and Production Companies, Romania holds a favourable position in the international transport system in Central and Eastern Europe. Romania can contribute to the interconnection of the National Natural Gas Transport System with the West-European system and to the gas transit in the Caspian and Middle East areas.
Romania's national defence strategy is the main instrument that underpins national defence planning and, through the Supreme Defence Council of the country, provides the strategic framework for the unitary organization and coordination of activities regarding the country's defence and national security. At the present stage, we note that Romania has the opportunity to cooperate in the field of security with the partner states in the Euro-Atlantic area. Intelligence organizations are concerned with identifying and signalling the risks and threats to energy security. The achievement of the regional development objectives and the development of the transport infrastructure implies the knowledge of the external actions that could affect the national and European security [10].
The next dimension of our analysis will focus on the fact that at the current stage, the Black Sea region does not present security guarantees, the political-economic dynamics being constantly changing. Among the conflicts with repercussions on energy, on the line of exploration, development and exploitation of the oil and natural gas resources on the continental shelf are:
1. The Ukrainian-Romanian conflict solved through diplomatic channels, through international jurisprudence (the North Sea Zone of the Black Sea was disputed at the International Court of Justice in The Hague in the process with Ukraine regarding the delimitation of the Continental Shelf and the exclusive economic area of the North-Western Black Sea. This process, with numerous rounds of negotiations, initiated on September the 16th 2004 and finalized on February 03rd 2009, ended with the obtaining by Romania of the sovereign rights of exploration and exploitation of 79.34% from an area of 12 200 km2, respectively about 9700 km2 of continental shelf and exclusive economic zone.
2. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict regarding the self-proclamation of the Republic of Crimea. The Russian Federation holds important oil reserves, the infrastructure needed for the transport and delivery of oil, natural gas and petroleum products on the markets of the main consumers, thus becoming the most important competitor on the Western European market. Russia is also constantly striving to develop new resources. The self-proclamation of the Republic of Crimea took place in 2014, after all the efforts made by Ukraine to become energetically independent of Russia, which is very much achieved.
Prior to 2014, Ukraine experienced a strong increase in the activities of exploration, development and exploitation of the oil and natural gas resources in the
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vicinity of the Crimean Peninsula, in the perimeter of the Gali^inskaya gas pipeline, through the former state-owned company "CHERNOMORNEFTEGAZ". Among the acquisitions on line of exploitation of the energy resources of the mentioned company is part of the platform of marine drilling symbolically named at that time "NEZALEJNOSTI" (translated from Ukrainian: "Independence"). With the takeover of the Crimean Peninsula (located only 230 km from the border with Romania), the Russian Federation has taken indirectly also the control over the energy resources in the area.
Five years after the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, an action considered illegal by international organizations, the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin launched a project of strategic importance, respectively a bridge over the Kerci Strait. The idea is not new, the first project being proposed by Tsar Nicholas II in 1910. The current version of the bridge will have a length of 19 km, two road lanes and a railway. The construction, which will link the Rostov-Don region of Russia with the Crimean capital, Simferopol, will allow traffic of 40,000 vehicles a day. At the beginning of the works, the Minister of Transport, Maxim Sokolov, announced the completion of the construction in December 2018. In the first half of May this year, the Russian president already inaugurated the road section of the bridge * at the wheel of a truck. ?
3. A potential risk for Romania, if it were to operate on its own and not part of the bilateral and multilateral formats in the region, would be the annexation of the island of Snakes by Russia, following the Crimean Peninsula model. This would result in a violation of The Hague Court's decision on the Snakes' Island, which was disputed in the past by Romania and Ukraine. According to such a scenario Russia could subsequently issue claims on the maritime economic zone in the vicinity of Romania, in the areas of exploration and exploitation of the energy resources that confer an additional energy independence. Recent geopolitical evolutions place Romania in the area of confrontation of the interests of the main actors, including in the field of information activity.
Conclusions
Generalizing the external activity of the states in the region, we can say that with the passage of time and the natural result of the intense exploitation of the decrease of the energy resources, the messages of the states will become tougher and more pragmatic. The undoubted energy factor has a huge importance in the relations between states, especially in a small area but which is bordered by a rich one in natural resources.
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