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THE EFFECTS OF THE CORONA VIRUS ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Zaher Ekhlas ibn Basir Email address: [email protected] Termez state university, student of master degree in economics department Academic Supervisor, Dr. Ihtisham ul Haq, Asst. Professor of Economics
Annotatsiya: Koronavirus-Kovid 19 inqirozi birinchi navbatda aholi
salomatligiga tahdid sifatida tanilgan, ammo asta-sekin global iqtisodiy tahdidga
aylandi. Garchi yangi koronavirus epidemiyasi tomonidan etkazilgan iqtisodiy
zararni aniq aniqlashning imkoni bo'lmasa-da, iqtisodchilar o'rtasida epidemiya
epidemiya global iqtisodiyotga jiddiy salbiy ta'sir ko'risatdi. Iqtisodiy Hamkorlik va
Rivojlanish Tashkiloti (OECD) yaqin oylarda dunyoning ayrim yirik iqtisodiyotlari
tanazzulga yuz tutishi va Coronavirus-Covid 19 iqtisodiy zararini qoplash uchil bir
nechati Ba'zi iqtisodchilar so'nggi epidemiyaning iqtisodiy ta'siri 2008 yildagi global
inqirozdan kattaroq bo'lishiga ishonishadi. Jahon tanazzulini ko'rmasak ham,
dunyoning ayrim iqtisodiyotlari umuman o'smaydi yoki iqtisodiy o'sishi salbiy
bo'ladi. Bunga ba'zi yirik iqtisodiyotlar kiradi. Shunday qilib, bu yil biz nafaqat past
o'sish sur'atlarini, balki kelajakda iqtisodiy o'sishni ham yaxshilayapmiz. Ushbu
maqola Koronavirus-Kovid epidemiyasining global iqtisodiyotga, xususan dunyoning
yirik iqtisodiyotlari va inqirozdan eng ko'p zarar ko'rgan mamlakatlarga ta'siri
qilgan, va global iqtisodiyotni ko'rib chiqing. Koronavirus-Kovid epidemiyasining
hozirgi holati, epidemiyaning moliya bozorlari, mehnat bozori, energiya bozori va
sayohat va turizm kabi global iqtisodiyotning muhim sohalariga'siri to'g'risida.
sanoat muhokama qilinadi. Va ko'rib chiqildi. Va nihoyat, yakuniy bo'limda ushbu
inqiroz oqibatlarini boshqarish bo'yicha turli xil iqtisodiy strategiyalarni aniqlash
uchun biz koronavirus-Kovid epidemiyasi 19 ga qarshi turli mamlakodlarning
qisqacha ko'rib chiqdik.
Kalit so'zlar: Koronavirus, epidemiya, yaxshilanish, o'sish, salbiy ta'sir, Zarar
ABSTRACT: This article discusses the Covid19 and the Coronavirus-Covid
Crisis 19 was primarily known as a threat to public health, but has gradually become
a global economic threat. Although there is no way to pinpoint the economic damage
caused by the new coronavirus epidemic, there is a consensus among economists that
the epidemic will have a severe negative impact on the global economy. The
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that
in the coming months, some of the world's major economies will enter recession and
it will take years for the Coronavirus-Covid 19 economic damage to be offset. Some
economists believe the economic impact of the recent epidemic will be greater than
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the global crisis of 2008. Even if we do not see a global recession, some of the world's economies will either not grow at all or their economic growth will be negative. This includes some large economies. So this year we are not only seeing low growth rates, but also improving economic growth in the future. This article attempts to provide an overview of the effects of the Coronavirus-Covid epidemic on the global economy, especially the world's major economies and countries most affected by the crisis, in general, possible development scenarios and how the epidemic will affect society. And examine the global economy. Next, by examining statistics and information published from reputable global sources on the current state of the coronavirus-Covid epidemic, the effects of the epidemic on important sectors of the global economy, such as financial markets, labor market, energy market and travel and tourism industry are discussed. And was reviewed. Finally, in the concluding section, in order to identify the various economic strategies for managing the effects of this crisis, we have briefly reviewed the economic policies of different countries in the face of the coronavirus-Covid epidemic 19.
Keywords: Coronavirus, epidemic, improving, growth, negative impact, Damage
The corona was discovered in China in late 2019 and spread around the world in a short time. The virus was defined by the World Health Organization as a global epidemic. The outbreak of the coronavirus is alive and has seriously threatened humans and the global health system. In order to overcome the health of the crisis, a "measure of isolation" was launched worldwide. In the operational limitation of isolation, governments began to close customs gates to restrict the movement of people and delay flights. More and more countries have even closed their borders and ports and imported goods that have been made. If you use to control the entry and exit of the country. In order to minimize contact with others, decide whether your work is done from home or work intermittently. In the process, communications, licensing taxes and finances in digital media are done at the maximum level even education in more than one country went online. Given the effects of the epidemic and its impact on the virus, in the first three months of 2020, there is another problem in the world economy. Global markets have stalled since the corona spread around the world. Global trade commodities have declined dramatically. Financial markets have depreciated. Imagine the stock market opening at the end of the year being higher than the 2008 global crisis. In economic terms, the global corona epidemic is the biggest crisis since the global recession of 1929. In line with practice, live trading
INTRODUCTION
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has only been sustained to meet basic needs. In most countries, streets were emptied, production was reduced in line with production and consumption, and trade was curtailed.
The study analyzed the impact of the coronavirus on the economic development of developed countries and the mechanisms for its elimination. At the same time, a comparative analysis of the views on the prevention of the growing global economic crisis was made.
Logical, historical, coherent and objective methods of scientific knowledge were widely used in the analysis of this article.
Despite the isolation that began in China, the epidemic soon had its effects in Europe, then in the United States, and rapidly around the world. Hospitals suddenly became overworked and the health care system collapsed, especially in Europe and the United States. Proper system collapse and rising health costs have raised concerns. In a short time, the cost of the epidemic became threatening to governments. In the process, the production and contraction of demand around the world caused the growth rate to be negative. In order to minimize the cost of the epidemic, each country begins to search for economic exploration. To this end, the complaint has prepared the world for monetary and financial anxiety to protect domestic markets. That particular type includes applying for a medical insurance system, financial benefits, credit support, cash assistance, and reducing the manufacturer's benefit and drug use to achieve it. For example, the US Federal Reserve, one of the world's most powerful diseases, has cut interest rates to zero. A similar rate reduction was performed in another response. However, in the experience of negative growth figures, rising unemployment and deteriorating general fiscal balance; Countries' policies to reduce the economic pressure of the epidemic have been somewhat effective. At this stage, the International Import Financial Institution has become operational. In order to reduce the crisis and bankruptcy risks in global markets, the organization, such as the National Monetary Fund and the World Bank, has launched support programs to enter the cash system from above. Eighty-one countries (China, the United States, Europe, Japan, etc.) are seeking financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund to ensure that their economies are strengthened against the effects of the coronavirus.
Many developing and impoverished countries have seen a sharp decline in foreign investment due to the outbreak of the Corona virus. Revenues from the
REFERENCES AND METHODS
DISCUSSION AND RESULTS
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tourism industry in these countries have declined and their foreign trade has been severely damaged.
There have been numerous reports on the consequences of the corona outbreak in the world for industrialized and developed countries. However, less attention has been paid to the devastating consequences of the outbreak of the virus on the economies of developing countries as well as poor countries.
Economists now worry that many of these countries are in crisis and that the gap between them and the industrialized countries is widening.
The effects of the coronavirus epidemic far outweighed the devastating effects of the 2008 financial crisis. Covid-19 disease originated in Asia and spread throughout the world. The first result of the outbreak of the Corona virus was that industrialized countries blocked the arteries of investment in developing and poor countries overnight.
According to the International Monetary Fund, this has caused developing countries to lose more than $ 100 billion in foreign capital in those countries. "This is a crisis the world has never seen before," the International Monetary Fund said in a statement. "There is no improvement."
The assessment of this international financial institution is shocking: the crisis caused by the outbreak of coronavirus can slow down the economic growth of developed and industrialized countries for one or two years, but the same crisis can lead to ten years of damage in developing countries. Request assistance from the international monetary fund
Krista Lina Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund, said that since the financial institution was founded in 1945, there has been no record of so many countries asking for help.
He considers the need for different countries to receive assistance from the International Monetary Fund as a great challenge that can cause many difficulties for this financial institution.
However, the outflow of foreign capital from developing countries has now been somewhat moderated, and published statistics suggest that the world has seen an increase in investment in such countries since June. But this trend does not include all developing and poor countries affected by the Corona crisis.
Developing European countries
Among European countries, Russia is one of the countries most affected by the corona outbreak. But the situation is also dire in other European countries, such as Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Armenia, Turkey and Croatia.
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For example, the losses caused by the damage to the tourism industry have had an impact on the economic growth rate of these countries. Twenty-five percent of Croatia's GDP depends on the tourism industry. The role of tourism is 20% in Montenegro and 12% in Turkey. However, Turkey is more dependent on foreign capital than other countries. Globally, we are facing a similar picture. Twenty-five percent of the Philippines' gross domestic product is dependent on the tourism industry. The same figure is 22% in Thailand. But large countries such as China and India have also been hit hard by declining revenues from the tourism industry. The dark glows of Brazil and South Africa
Brazil and South Africa were the flagships of growth among developing countries. But now, the outbreak of the coronavirus has greatly diminished the rapid growth of these countries. What threatens these countries now is the slump in the mouth of an economic crisis.
The situation in poor countries in South Asia, South America and Africa has been reported to be dire. Although these countries have not suffered as much as many other countries in terms of the number of victims and the extent of the corona outbreak, the economic consequences of the corona crisis have been severe for these countries.
The currencies of many of these countries have depreciated sharply against the US dollar and the euro. As a result, companies that have taken out foreign loans in dollars and euros now have to spend more money to pay off their debts. This has led economists active in the International Monetary Fund to warn of the risk of widespread corporate bankruptcy in developing countries. For months, foreign trade, freight transport, foreign investment, and revenues from the tourism industry have plummeted.
International Monetary Fund economist Ragora Rajan wrote in July that the economic consequences of the coronavirus outbreak are so severe for many developing countries that they will not be able to bear the burden. In an interview with the Financial Times, Rajan said that these countries, compared to industrialized countries, are not in a position to inject billions of dollars to improve their economic situation and thus help stabilize the market.
In addition, the medical systems of these countries do not have the capacity to bear the burden of the Covid-19 epidemic, which could exacerbate the situation. According to this Indian economist, the more this situation continues and the more the number of patients increases, the worse the situation becomes. The only way out for companies in such countries is to get a loan. But if someone is not willing to pay the loan, these companies cannot survive.
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Reducing economic growth rate
Even before the Corona outbreak and its economic impact, the London-based Capital Economic Institute spoke of slowing economic growth in developing countries. "The golden age of developing countries is coming to an end," the think tank said in a statement. "China must sooner or later prepare for a 2% annual growth rate."
The situation is not much different in other developing countries. The rapid economic growth of these countries, which was formed in the transition to the third millennium, is gradually fading and accelerating. This assessment in the shadow of the Corona crisis has shown its accuracy more than ever. The Corona crisis has had a severe impact on the economies of these countries.
International Monetary Fund economist Raguram Rajan believes that industrialized nations and investors should waive some of their debt to poor countries. "Industrialized countries, even if they are interested in their own interests, should not push the economy to the point where the economies of other countries are destroyed," he said. "No matter what happens there, it will not stay there." What is meant by this is the consequences of the economic failures of poor and growing countries for industrialized countries.
He says widespread unemployment in poor countries is fueling a new wave of migration to a rich country. Hence, industrialized countries should not ignore the plight of poor countries. Otherwise, they will have to accept the "caravan of hesitant people" and the flood of boats carrying refugees and migrants. In this regard:
German Economy Minister optimistic about end to recession in autumn Peter Altmeier has expressed confidence that the recession caused by the Corona pandemic in Germany will end after the summer holidays. The German Minister of Economy estimates that the improvement of the economic situation in this country will start in October at the latest. (05.07.2020) World Bank: Up to 100 million people in the world are living in extreme poverty The World Bank predicts in a new report that the corona crisis will leave up to 100 million people in extreme poverty in the world. According to experts, the continuation of social restrictions will hit the economy hard and reduce it by up to ten percent.
By 2020, many countries and international financial institutions had forecast positive economic growth. However, the year 2020 was full of unexpected news, and with the start of China, the epidemic of coronavirus has swept the world. Public health measures have been taken primarily around the world to reduce the spread of
CONCLUSION
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epidemics and save the health system from collapse. Many isolation measures have been applied, such as quarantine measures, the law of social distance, flexible working conditions, and the closure of borders. However, the imposed isolation led to a global crisis and eventually reduced global production.
Some firms fired workers, reduced production, and others became unbearable and went bankrupt. Disruption of the purchasing system upset the balance of supply and demand and reduced global trade. Compared to the Great Depression of 1929 and the global crisis of 2008, the Corona virus crisis caused alarm in the world economy and was defined as a major crisis that the world has not experienced to date. Governments have been forced to bring in an immediate stream of liquidity to reduce the number of bankruptcies, prevent unemployment, prevent revenue loss, and prevent further damage to the economy. In this regard, in the face of the crisis, countries quickly implemented expansionary economic policies. With the implementation of economic policies, the negative effects of this virus are still increasing. In short, the countries of the First, Second and Third Worlds are currently pursuing new policies to prevent the effects of the second wave of the Corona virus, depending on their economic situation. But until the virus vaccine is discovered, the negative effects of the virus on macroeconomic variables will continue. The last word; 2020 has been a critical year for the countries of the world and will be recorded as an unprecedented crisis in the history of the world economy.
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