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Janusz Lacny, Magdalena Osinska
THE ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2007-2009 AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE GOODS ROAD TRANSPORT LABOUR MARKET. A CASE OF POLAND
Introduction
Data presented by the Central Statistical Office in Poland show that in 2009 the average rate of employment in the sector of transport and storage enterprises ranged approximately 0.5 per cent above the level of the previous year. However, the rate lowered gradually in consecutive quarters and a 1.2 per cent decrease in employment was already being observed in the fourth quarter of 2009 in comparison with the corresponding period of the previous year (see: Information on the socio-economic situation of the country in 2009 of 28.I.2010).
Employment in the automobile, trailer and semitrailer production sectors fell by 13.2 per cent in 2009 in comparison to 2008 which is essential information for the state and perspectives of investment of road transport companies in the current period and in the near future. At the same time the total rate of unemployment registered in Poland at the end of 2009 increased by 2.4 per cent in comparison to 2008 undoubtedly attesting to an economic crisis, visible in Poland already in the second half of 2008.
The main purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the current situation regarding the professional truck drivers' labour market from the national Polish perspective as well as that of its provinces with a parallel discussion on determinants impacting the supply and demand for such drivers in light of recent regulatory changes on access to the profession of this specific group of employees.
In the first part the paper analyses the state of the art of the Polish goods road transport industry at the beginning of the 21st century until the appearance of the crisis in conjunction with tendencies observed in this respect in selected countries of the European Union. The second part concerns mainly the changes of legal conditions of access to the profession of goods vehicle drivers and the third part is devoted to a detailed analysis of the latest statistical data for the years 2007-2009. Conclusions of the
research and perspectives for improvement of the situation in the nearest future have been presented in the last part of the paper.
1. Determinants of conditions for the development of goods road transport in Poland versus the economic crisis
Conditions for the development of goods road transport are created basically by the standing of transport enterprises and other companies dealing with transport activity, a total number of goods vehicles and their technical conditions, as well as the demand for road transport services. Moreover, amongst many other factors that determine the development of the transport industry there are: principles of access to the profession of transport operator and access to the drivers' labour market, ways of financing transport investments, the state of the road infrastructure and the level of road user charges, cost of fuel, currency exchange rates, as well as, most generally transport policy of the country.
It is obvious that in the last 20 years, in the period of economic transformation in Poland, the development of goods road transport was very rapid which has been demonstrated by a considerable increase in both: the number of road transport companies as well as the number of vehicles purchased and registered by these companies. These facts have resulted in ever growing demand for professional drivers throughout the entire period. Data concerning the number of international road transport companies and the number of vehicles at their disposal are presented in table 1.
Careful analysis of the data presented in table 1 clearly shows a rapid growth of the level of motorization of Polish citizens which has resulted in a considerable growth in the number of drivers. However the data do not indicate an automatic rise in the number of professional drivers involved in ensuring the mobility of people and goods, especially in light
Table 1
The dynamics of changes in the number of international goods transport companies and the number of vehicles registered in Poland in the years 2000-2008
Year Total No. of vehicles registered (x 1000) No. of private cars (x 1000) No. of goods vehicles (x 1000) No. of transport companies Dynamics of changes (previous year = 100)
Total No. of vehicles No. of private cars No. of goods vehicles No. of transport companies
2000 14 106 9981 1879 7774 - - - -
2001 14 724 10 503 1979 8528 104,38 105,23 105,32 109,70
2002 15 526 11 029 2163 8716 105,45 105,01 109,30 102,20
2003 15 899 11 244 2192 9757 102,40 101,95 101,34 111,94
2004 16 701 11 975 2263 11 835 105,04 106,50 103,24 121,30
2005 16 816 12 339 2178 13 534 100,69 103,04 96,24 114,36
2006 18 035 13 384 2305 16 288 107,25 108,47 105,83 120,35
2007 19 472 14 589 2521 19 582 107,97 109,00 109,37 120,22
2008 21 337 16 080 2710 22 182 109,58 110,22 107,50 113,28
Source: The authors' study based on statistical data supplied by the Central Statistical Office in Poland (GUS) for the years 2001-2009.
of the growing requirements for professionalism of this group of employees imposed by the EU. Further analysis allows the conclusion to be drawn that the enormous rate of growth in the number of international goods road transport companies significantly exceeding even the rate of growth in the number of goods vehicles, points to two unusually essential elements namely:
- constantly increasing demand for highly qualified professional drivers able to operate on both: the intra-EU and international transport markets;
- relative stabilisation of the number of pseudo-goods vehicles, which are included in the group of goods vehicles simply because of their equipment with "bars" although they are not used directly for the purpose of transporting goods but rather for streamlining the organization and functioning of enterprises and interpersonal contacts between entities on the more and more widely integrated European market.
To complete the entire picture, level of development of domestic goods road transport should also be added to the above information. Data presented by the Ministry of Infrastructure of Poland show that some 57 000 licenses have been granted to
companies dealing with domestic goods road transport and that there were some 155 100 goods vehicles that remained at their legal disposal at the end of 2008.
Meanwhile, in 2007 preliminary information about the major financial crisis in the USA was spread around the world with no clue as to how deep it was going to be and to what extent it would affect the world's economy. In Poland, the first symptoms of the crisis were felt in financial circles in the 3rd quarter of 2008 and in the 4th quarter of the same year in the real economy. A very important question arose, namely: in what way would the crisis, manifesting itself with the general fall in the demand for transport services and the lowering level of freight rates, impact road transport companies, and indirectly the labour market of professional drivers? One of the essential pieces of information about the situation of road transport companies was the change in the number of vehicle sales and new registrations in the period before and during the crisis, which is presented in table 2.
Data presented in table 2 indicate that the number of new goods vehicles with a maximum technically permissible laden mass (hereafter referred
Table 2
The sales of new goods vehicles with MLM exceeding 3.5 tonnes in Poland in the years 2006-2009
Segment January - September January - December Changes in per cent (previous year = 100)
2009 2008 2009 2008 2007 2006 2009 2008 2007
3.5 < MLM < = 6.0T 1484 2016 X 2780 1974 X X 140.8 X
6.0 < MLM < = 10.0T 347 790 X 918 1033 X X 88.9 X
10.0 < MLM < 16.0T 854 1792 X 2329 2340 X X 99.5 X
MLM > = 16.0T 4549 13 873 6341 16 699 19 239 11 444 38.0 86.8 168.1
Total 7234 18 471 10 064 22 726 24 586 15 869 44.3 92.4 154.9
Source: Polish Union of Motorisation Industry (PZPM) - data collected from member companies, www.pzpm.org.pl
Table 3
The number of newly registered vehicles with MLM exceeding 3.5 tonnes in selected EU and OECD countries
in the years 2000-2009
Year France Greece Spain Holland Ireland Germany Italy Great Brit. OECD
2000 58 092 1998 35 303 18 243 4904 110 383 36 684 53 618 372 719
2001 57 929 2001 35 715 17 055 4864 100 975 38 685 54 765 365 151
2002 50 448 1879 34 509 14 752 4364 86 932 39 046 51 931 330 568
2003 46 399 2063 34 500 13 820 4430 85 357 36 133 53 841 323 632
2004 47 364 2199 37 038 14 376 4349 91 852 35 996 54 809 337 010
2005 48 433 2260 38 570 14 656 4537 93 935 36 404 55 406 344 307
2006 49 414 2329 39 984 15 049 4804 96 179 37 009 56 792 356 174
2007 50 362 2408 41 287 15 505 5051 98 328 37 501 58 268 362 275
2008* 38 031 1827 31 325 11 817 3770 74 542 28 077 44 043 273 553
2008 50 741 2438 41 814 15 785 5017 99 509 37 415 58 762 365 031
2009* 37 730 1810 31 005 11 712 3633 73 245 27 478 43 463 269 811
* Data covering first 3 quarters of 2008 and 2009, respectively. Source: International Road Transport Union (IRU), Geneva, 2009.
to as MLM) exceeding 3.5 tonnes, sold in analysed companies in 2009, fell by about 55.7 per cent in comparison with the previous year. The slight growth of sales was observed in December 2009 only. The fall in 2008 was on the level of 7.6 per cent whereas in 2007 a growth of 54.9 per cent was registered.
It is possible to compare the analogous information related to selected Member States of the
European Union and the entire territory of the OECD. In table 3 detailed data concerning new registrations of vehicles with MLM exceeding 3.5 tonnes in the years 2000-2009 are presented. In fact these data are practically equal to the number of the vehicles purchased.
A general remark that arises after the analysis of the data presented in tables 2 and 3 is that the number of newly registered vehicles in the years 2000-
2008 was relatively stable contrary to the strong expansion of this industry as observed in Poland. The decrease of sales observed in the EU Member States in the first three quarters of 2009, compared with the corresponding period of 2008, is between 2-3 per cent. It can be related to the following two facts:
- over investment by Polish road transport companies and their exaggerated expansion in the years preceding the crisis,
- reduction in the demand for services of Polish road transport companies on both the domestic as well as the international road transport markets in the period of the crisis.
These factors had a strong influence on changes in the goods vehicle drivers' labour market in Poland.
2. Requirements for professional drivers
Today's road transport business is an activity whose operations are highly and precisely regulated, especially in the European Union. As such, it is quite natural that commercial vehicle drivers, who significantly affect the level of services as well as the safety of their operations, have also had to become subject to regulations concerning their ability in both of these areas (i.e. safety and other competences) before gaining access to the profession and then will again face further periodic training obligations while carrying out their driving activities.
For the last few decades the European Union has been developing its policy of fixing the access rules to the profession on commercial vehicle drivers. It has been initiated by determining particular rules and conditions necessary to obtain a certificate of professional competence (CPC), a document supplementing the driving license and entitling the driver to operate specific categories of road transport vehicles.
At present access to the profession of commercial vehicle driver is regulated by EU Directive 2003/59. The directive is basically intended to improve road safety and by focusing on the drivers' behaviour through the further professionalisation of their work bearing in mind that they are the chief actors for fulfilling goods distribution by road and the mobility needs of people. This driver CPC is one
element in a broader programme, which includes the third EU Driver Licence Directive, aimed at fully standardising principles of drivers' education and harmonisation of access conditions to the profession of commercial vehicle driver across the territory of the European Union.
The provisions of an earlier regulation (Regulation 3820/85) applied very limited age related restrictions to a small percentage of individuals carrying out the activity of driving in passenger or goods transport. Otherwise, apart from national laws, the majority of drivers had been carrying out their profession on Community territory solely on the basis of a driving licence related to the type of vehicle they were operating.
On the contrary, new Community rules are applicable to all professional drivers. Laying down these regulations via an EU Directive was aimed not only at guaranteeing through a common qualification, the competence of a driver to operate certain categories of vehicle but also to ensure that he can carry out his duties while positively influencing road safety, extending to the security of passengers or goods being transported, the vehicles and other road users, and not only during transport operations but also while the vehicle is parked.
It is obvious, that in accordance with the new regulations, the specificities of different transport sectors and the fact that professional experience still counts, different requirements apply to CPC candidates depending on whether they are active in passenger or goods transport or are drivers already working in line with technical and technological progress in their branch of transport. Hence Directive 2003/59 establishes different requirements for the initial training of candidates hoping to become professional drivers for the first time and the periodic training of drivers already working in the profession.
The initial training for candidates to become professional drivers should cover all the topics specified in the directive and includes a two-part final exam composed of theoretical and practical tests. Theoretical test shall include multiple-choice questions, questions requiring a direct answer and responses based on case studies. The practical (driving) part should take place on varied types of roads and with different traffic density conditions in order
to present the candidate with a range of road traffic scenarios that a driver is liable to encounter. 35 hours of periodic training is compulsory for all existing drivers and must be repeated at least once every five years.
EU member states when establishing criteria for initial and periodic training must assess a candidate's ability to drive with a correct attitude and in accordance with safety regulations. The candidate must also demonstrate a knowledge of the practical application of social rules, regulations governing the carriage of passengers and goods (as relevant for his chosen sector) as well as clear understanding of different health, road and environmental safety issues, professional service concepts and a knowledge of logistics aimed at enhancing the image of the company.
In particular, in order to assess a driver's capacity for rational driving based on safety regulations these requirements test the drivers' knowledge of the characteristics of the vehicle's transmission system in order to make the best possible use of it, the technical characteristics and operation of the safety controls of the vehicle, the ability to minimise wear and tear and prevent vehicle malfunctions, to optimise fuel consumption and to load the vehicle with due regard for safety and proper vehicle use and, finally, to ensure passenger comfort and safety.
To provide drivers with equal chances of employment irrespective of their nationality and thus also to prevent unequal conditions of competition, the qualification requirements concluded in Directive 2003/59 concern all drivers that carry out the activity of driving on the territory of the European Union, whether they are employed by an undertaking established in an EU member state or performing the work for such an enterprise. This applies irrespective of whether they are nationals of an EU Member State or citizens of third countries. The only evidence stated in the directive that a driver must hold to demonstrate that he is complying with the requirements for initial qualification or periodic training is a certificate of professional competence issued by competent authorities of a member state. These new requirements came into effect as of 10 September 2008 for drivers engaged in the carriage of passengers by road and a year later for drivers engaged in the carriage of goods by road.
In Poland the driver training legislation was initiated by the Act of 1 February 1983 - The law on road traffic, in which the term certificate of competence appeared for the first time. This act introduced the obligation for a certain group of drivers to possess such a certificate. From 1 January 2002 such a certificate was available for all those who wanted to have access to and carry out the activity of driving after fulfilling additional conditions; the basic one being the completion of a training course. It applied to drivers performing the carriage of passengers with the use of road vehicles constructed or permanently adapted for carrying more than nine persons including the driver, and to drivers of goods vehicles where the maximum laden mass of the vehicle (MLM), including a trailer or semi-trailer attached to the motor vehicle, exceeded 7,5 tonnes and when these vehicles were intended for use in business activities for either of the two purposes. Since 1 January 2004 training obligations for professional drivers has been included in chapter 7a of the amended Polish Act of 6 September 2001 on the road transport.
At the end of 2006 the newest regulations on the qualifications of professional drivers appeared as a text of the act amending The act on the road transport and the act - The law on road traffic. They fully respect the EU legislation on this issue. In accordance with these amendments anyone who wants to be authorised to drive commercial vehicles and seeks employment as a professional driver must complete the course on initial training, which lasts 280 hours, covering a scope of issues adjusted to the type of vehicle he intends to drive. A driver who meets the requirements of the initial conditions for a certain type of vehicles and intends to broaden or modify his activities in order to carry other transport operations on other types of vehicles, is obliged to pass the initial qualification in those other specific areas before performing such transport operations.
In line with the EU requirements, as mentioned above, every five years a commercial driver is obliged to undergo periodic training before the end of the period of validity of the certificate of professional competence in order for him to update the knowledge essential for his work. Compulsory periodic training courses must be organised by an approved training centre. The duration of such train-
ing must be of 35 hours in the form of one course or in periods of at least seven hours each. In any case, all elements of the specified training course curriculum must be covered irrespective of how the training is split.
On the basis of the CPC certifying the initial qualification or the completion of periodic training the competent Member State authority shall mark driving licence with the Community code 93 or issue a driver qualification card which must be mutually recognised across the EU.
Independent of the form of trainings introduced in Poland and irrespective of the funding sources of this training the immediate establishment of an effectively functioning nationwide system of training centres is required to harmonise the process of drivers' education and enable Polish transport undertakings to reorganise their activity in accordance with the new requirements. Such a system must consist at least of a territorially dispersed network of training centres and an effectively operating examination institution, managing a data bank of certificates of professional competence.
3. Supply and demand for the work of commercial drivers
in Poland in the national and regional picture
The term of the profession of „goods vehicle drivers" is used in the paper according to the terminology of the professions division into groups, determined by the Regulation of the Minister of Economy and Labour of 8 December 2004 determining the classification of professions and specialties derived for the purposes of the labour market and the scope of applying it. Goods vehicle drivers constitute the basic group of the profession marked (8323) which is composed of the following specialisations: articulated vehicle drivers (832301), single vehicle drivers (832302), also referred to as rigid vehicle drivers, and all remaining goods vehicle drivers (832390). The right to drive a specific goods vehicle is determined by a type of the driving license possessed by a driver.
In order to be authorised to drive an articulated vehicle composed of a truck tractor and a semitrailer or a single vehicle with a trailer the driving license of at least the C+E category is needed while in case of a rigid vehicle of the maximum laden mass
(MLM) of above 3.5 tonnes the driving license of category C is requested. A driver with the driving license of category C1 or C1 +E has the right to drive goods vehicles with a maximum laden mass (MLM) not exceeding 7.5 tonnes and articulated vehicles with the MLM not exceeding 12 tonnes composed of a motor vehicle of MLM limited to 7.5 tonnes and a trailer with the MLM not exceeding the MLM of the motor vehicle with which it is connected.
The basic source of data for the analysis carried out in this paper is the ranking of deficit and surplus professions published in an electronic form by the provincial employment offices (www.wup.city_ name.pl).
3.1. An analysis of the labour market of drivers and freight forwarders in Poland in the years 2007-2009
The demand for commercial drivers is determined by the number of transport companies operating on domestic, intra-EU and international markets as well as by the total number of vehicles remaining in the legal possession of these companies. This in turn results from the total demand for road transport services generated on a given geopolitical area.
A very dynamic growth of the number of companies and their investments in the purchase of increasingly modern vehicles observed in Poland since the year 2000 have caused considerable new demand for professional drivers. This has resulted in the situation that the deficit in the supply of such drivers has become one of the most serious amongst any professions in the country. While carrying out data analysis one should take into consideration the fact, that even the economic crisis of the years 2008-2009 did not cause a significant reduction in the volume of goods transported, at least not in 2008. An indicator that has fallen dramatically is, however, the dynamics of growth of both: the numbers of road transport companies and goods vehicles remaining at their possession as well as the total number of transport journeys and the drop of the freight rates.
However, official records can be misleading due to the fact that even the suspension of a company's transport activity or selling a vehicle off does not necessitate an update of the transport operator's
Table 4
Performance of goods road transport in Poland in the years 2000-2008
Index 2000 2005 2007 2008
In thousansd of tonnes 1 006 705 1 079 761 1 213 246 1 339 473
In thousands of tonne-kilometres 75 023 119 740 159 527 174 223
Source: Concise Statistical Yearbook of Poland, Central Statistical Office (GUS). Warsaw, 2009.
Table 5
Shift to unemployment and job offers for the profession of goods vehicle drivers in Poland in the years 2007-2009
Year / Half-a-year Shift to unemployment Number of job offers
Articulated vehicle drivers Rigid vehicle drivers Remaining goods vehicle drivers Articulated vehicle drivers Rigid vehicle drivers Remaining goods vehicle drivers
2007/I 58 6257 33 1170 11 970 78
2007 116 12 199 69 2060 22 525 324
2008/I 66 5631 42 1276 10 435 83
2008 174 12 721 102 2304 17 603 107
2009/I 142 9910 60 695 5394 33
Source: The authors' study based on statistical data of deficit and surplus professions monitoring worked out and supplied by the provincial labour offices in Poland.
license. As a consequence, the national register of licenses issued in Poland can point out the increase in the number of licensed vehicles without revealing the real reduction of the business growth or even a fall in the number of active commercial operators or vehicles remaining at their possession.
The conditions of changes of demand for the work of drivers were discussed in the first part of the paper. It is supplemented here by information about the performance of goods road transport in the years 2000-2008 as presented in table 4. It shows that the increase in the volume of goods carried in 2008 was in the order of 10.4 per cent in tonnes and 9.2 per cent in tonne-kilometres in comparison to 2007, which highlights the ever increasing importance of this transport sector.
The supply of work for commercial vehicle drivers is, apart from demographic factors, conditioned by the number of people with suitable driving licenses and determined by their desire to work in this profession being mainly as a function of the reward they are offered for their work. A substantial role is also played by psychological factors as
well as conditions and chances for getting alternative employment in other branches of the economy. It is also worth recalling that because of the specificity of this work resulting in frequent travels and thus long stays away from home, the profession of commercial vehicle drivers is one of the most mobile professions.
As a consequence a professional driver can find a job relatively easily simply by contacting representatives of the transport business, driver-friends or entrepreneurs regardless of the location of a transport company which is of relatively little importance to him. So, statistical data presented below can nominally not give the exact number of unemployed drivers or the number of job offers announced by companies to the provincial employment offices. However, they do give some overall information about the trends and changes to the position of this profession on the labour market.
Data concerning the shift of professional goods vehicle drivers to unemployment measured on a half yearly and a yearly basis together with the number of job offers for this group of employees in Poland
in the years 2007-2009 are presented in table 5. The analysis of this data shows that the number of job offers reported to the employment offices in the entire period of the years 2007-2008 was significantly larger than the number of rigid vehicle drivers being registered as unemployed. However, in the first half of 2009 this trend was halted which undoubtedly was a clear symptom of the fact that economic crisis had hit the transport of goods.
Admittedly, in the first half of 2009, the demand for work in the profession of an articulated vehicle driver exceeded its supply but the number of drivers registered as unemployed increased in this sphere in comparison with the corresponding periods of 2007 and 2008. On the other side the number of reported job offers was reduced considerably (by about 50 per cent) in the comparable periods. In view of the above, as for the mobility in the drivers' profession and the changes registered in their labour market, apart from the formal data available in the employment offices, the data presented here clearly shows the deterioration of the situation of rigid vehicle drivers on the labour market in Poland. The comparison of the average monthly number of job offers with the average monthly shift to unemployment also confirms earlier observations that the supply of rigid vehicle drivers to the profession while in a deficit in the years 2007-2008 was in a surplus in the first half year of 2009. This, however, does not concern the group termed articulated vehicle drivers (see table 6).
Table 6
The deficit and surplus of goods vehicle drivers in the labour market in Poland in the years 2007-2009
Profession 2007 2008 2009/1
Articulated vehicle drivers -162,1 -177,2 -92,2
Rigid vehicle drivers -860,4 -406,3 +752,7
Remaining goods vehicle drivers -21,3 -0,4 +4,5
Source: The monitoring of the deficit and surplus professions worked out and supplied by the provincial labour offices in Poland.
Freight forwarders constitute yet another group of professionals that have a very strong influence on the efficiency of road transport business. Some nu-
merical data describing the current state of affairs for this sector of the labour market is presented in table 7.
Table 7
The demand for freight forwarders in the labour market in Poland in the years 2007-2009
Profession-freight forwarder (342204) 2007 2008 2009/1
Shift to unemployment 653 774 515
Number of job offfers 738 761 475
Deficit / surplus -7,1 + 1,1 +6,6
S o u r c e : The monitoring of the deficit and surplus professions worked out and supplied by the provincial labour offices in Poland.
Careful analysis of the data presented in tables 6 and 7 confirms the three following observations:
1. The economic crisis which resulted in a reduction of the number of orders for transport services as well as a reduction of freight rates became visible on the goods vehicles drivers' labour market as of the beginning of 2009 whereas it was already visible on the freight forwarders' labour market as early as 2008.
2. In the road transport business, similarly with the economy as a whole, the labour market is the last to react to the changes of economic situation. Entrepreneurs cautiously dismiss their employees in the early phase of the economic downturn. So the same trend of cautious recruitment should be expected after the economic downturn reverses;
3. The category of articulated vehicle drivers is still one of the most needed professions on the labour market.
3.2. The analysis of the goods vehicle drivers' labour market in the years 2007-2009 presented by provinces
Regional differentiation of the labour market and the specificity of local markets in Poland have been a subject of numerous theoretical deliberations (see e.g. Horodenski and Sadowska-Snarska (ed.), 2006; Wisniewski and Dolny (ed.), 2008). In spite of the close relationship between the labour markets on the national or even global level, considerable differences appear both amongst professions as well
as between the provinces of Poland. It is based on both the economic tradition of individual regions and their current environment supplemented recently by Polish and EU regional policy.
The subject of this part of the paper is an analysis of the demand and supply in the profession of goods vehicle drivers presented by provinces. Statistical data on the shift to unemployment across provinces for half yearly and yearly periods are presented in table 8 while the same data in relation to the number of job offers are analogously shown in table 9.
In absolute numbers, in the analysed period the highest supply of goods vehicle drivers appeared in the provinces of Mazowieckie and Slaskie while
Table 8
Shift to unemployment in the profession of goods vehicle drivers registered in the provincial approach in the years 2007-2009
Province Year / Half-a-year
2009/I 2008/I 2008 2007/I 2007
Dolnoslaskie 718 419 976 484 952
Kujawsko-pomorskie 585 405 912 420 831
Lubelskie 571 328 775 370 693
Lubuskie 530 243 584 284 539
Lodzkie 611 399 879 444 826
Malopolskie 793 404 932 385 765
Mazowieckie 1516 865 1845 908 1815
Opolskie 237 176 360 151 321
Podkarpackie 467 262 609 324 641
Podlaskie 278 190 442 217 436
Pomorskie 510 249 562 268 512
Slaskie 1004 510 1167 647 1213
Swietokrzyskie 255 144 352 166 326
Warminsko-mazurskie 737 433 1018 422 822
Wielkopolskie 630 314 685 465 900
Zachodniopomorskie 478 290 623 302 607
Source: The authors' study based on statistical data of deficit and surplus professions monitoring worked out and supplied by the provincial labour offices in Poland.
the highest demand for this kind of labour was registered in the provinces of Dolnoslaskie and Slaskie. At the other end, the lowest supply of goods vehicles drivers was seen in the provinces of Opolskie, Swietokrzyskie and Podlaskie while the lowest demand for this kind of labour was observed in the provinces of Podlaskie, Opolskie and Warminsko-mazurskie.
The comparison of the number of goods vehicle drivers registered as unemployed with the number of offers reported in the examined periods shows that in the province of Kujawsko-Pomorskie a slight surplus of jobless drivers compared to the number of job offers was registered already in 2007 and it lasted throughout the whole period analysed
Table 9
The number of job offers for the profession of goods vehicle drivers reported by provinces for the years 2007-2009
Province Year / Half-a-year
2009/I 2008/I 2008 2007/I 2007
Dolnoslaskie 692 2245 3041 844 1960
Kujawsko-pomorskie 254 374 668 441 809
Lubelskie 294 473 914 568 1150
Lubuskie 301 282 609 474 916
Lodzkie 411 744 1306 906 1758
Malopolskie 397 605 1212 626 1309
Mazowieckie 445 996 1759 1297 2528
Opolskie 146 241 495 212 517
Podkarpackie 310 481 845 568 930
Podlaskie 117 382 739 359 724
Pomorskie 372 606 1001 940 1638
Slaskie 689 1250 2681 2070 4239
Swietokrzyskie 202 221 407 157 288
Warminsko-mazurskie 159 266 494 442 775
Wielkopolskie 423 878 1550 1374 2634
Zachodniopomorskie 184 391 688 704 1144
S o u r c e : The authors' study based on statistical data of deficit and surplus professions monitoring worked out and supplied by the provincial labour offices in Poland.
Научно-технические ведомости СПбГПУ 1' 2012. Экономические науки
in the paper, i.e. until 2009. The year 2008 brought a similar situation in the provinces of Mazowieckie and Warminsko-Mazurskie. Moreover, in the first half of 2009 a driver surplus was registered in all the provinces but Opolskie and the largest disproportion appeared in the provinces of Mazowieckie, Warminsko-Mazurskie, Malopolskie and Zachod-niopomorskie.
The results of deeper analysis show that as of the first half of 2009 an increase in the number of jobless drivers was recorded in all the provinces in comparison with the same period of 2008. The highest increase was registered in the provinces of Lubuskie, Pomorskie and Wielkopolskie whereas the smallest was in the province of Opolskie. As for the dynamics of changes of the number of job offers the reduction can be observed in almost all the Polish provinces. The greatest drop was seen in the provinces of Dolnoslaskie and Podlaskie and the only opposite tendency was recorded in the Lubus-kie province.
It is worthwhile to point out that locally the situation on the goods vehicles drivers' labour market can differ from general tendencies. It results from the differences in development of local investments, levels of cross-border cooperation, local and global economic migration, as well as from seasonal characteristics of economic processes in the provincial labour markets. There are certainly elements of the frictional unemployment staying outside the registered numbers. They result from such elements as occasional dismisses of irresponsible drivers from work, the grey economic zone existing in the transport activity, etc. In the near future the situation on the drivers' labour market will become even more complex due to the needs for further adaptation of the whole transport business to the new EU regulations concerning compulsory drivers' training.
Conclusions
Closer consideration of the goods vehicle drivers' labour market in the period of the current economic crisis shows that the situation of these professionals deteriorated in 2009 both in Poland as a whole and in the individual country provinces. The labour markets turned out to be scarcest in the following provinces: Mazowieckie, Warminsko-mazurskie, Malopolskie and Zachodniopomorskie.
Because of the world's economic crisis it is difficult to find employment today both on the intra-EU labour market as well as on the international market outside the EU. However, it seems that the increase of unemployment in the drivers' profession has strongly economic character and so the state of jobless professionals or those working in economically worsening conditions should be transitional. This is because in this group of workers, unlike in other groups of professionals, such as miners or shipyard workers for example, structural maladjustments do not exist now. Because of the still predictable upward development of the road transport industry in Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (the League of Arab States) the demand for the services of professional drivers should show continued growth for many years. Recent economic forecasts for 2010 allow to hold out hopes for gradual improvement in the transport sector of the economy.
On the other hand, the need to carry out costly trainings for new comers to the profession of goods vehicle drivers may cause structural maladjustment in Poland in the form of a driver deficit in the labour market especially because of the age structure of current employees representing this profession who will soon be reaching the retirement age. It is quite likely that this will require the fast introduction of systematic solutions, for example ones based on the ESF funds or other EU programmes.
REFERENCES
1. Directive 2003/59/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 July 2003 on the initial qualification and periodic training of drivers of certain road vehicles for the carriage of goods or passengers, amending Council Regulation (EEC) No 3820/85 and Council Directive 91/439/EEC and repealing Council Directive 76/914/EEC [Text] // Official Journal L 226, of 10 Sept. 2003. - P. 4-17.
2. Horodenski, R. Regional and local labour markets. From disproportion do consistency [Text] / R. Horodenski, C. Sadowska-Snarska (ed.) // Institute for Labour and Social Affairs, 2006 (in Polish).
3. Information on the socio-economic situation of the country in 2009 [Text] / Central Statistical Office (GUS). Warsaw, 28.I.2010 (in Polish).
4. Lacny, J. Functioning of international road haul-
age in the global economy [Text] / J. Lachy // Scientific Publishing of the Institute for Exploitation Technology -PIB, Bydgoszcz-Radom, 2009 (in Polish).
5. Concise Statistical Yearbook of Poland [Text] // Central Statistical Office, Warsaw, Yearbooks of 20012009.
6. Regulation of the Minister of Economy and Labour of 8 December 2004 on the classification of professions and specialties for the need of labour market and the scope of its application [Text] // Official Journal of 2004, no. 265, pos. 2644 (in Polish).
7. Ranking of deficit and surplus professions published by the provincial labour offices [Electronic re-sourse]. - URL: www.wup.city_name.pl (in Polish).
8. Act of 20 June 1997 - The Law on Road Traffic [Text] // with further amendments: Official Journal of 2005, No. 108, pos. 908 and no. 109, pos. 925) (in Polish).
9. Wisniewski. Z. Labour Market in Poland in the process of integration with the UE. Macroeconomic and Local [Text] / Z. Wisniewski, E. Dolny (red.) // Aspects, Scientific Publishing of Nicolaus Copernicus University (UMK) in Torun, Poland 2008 (in Polish).
УДК 330.3
Е.В. Жиряева
ТАМОЖЕННО-ТАРИФНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА РОССИИ И СПЕЦИФИКА ВНЕШНЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИ СТРАНЫ: ВЗАИМОДЕЙСТВИЕ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ
Уникальность России состоит в том, что она принадлежит, по крайней мере отчасти, как европейской, так и азиатской цивилизациям, разделяя их судьбу. Будучи европейской страной, Россия прошла период империализма. Но мы никогда не были так же индустриально развиты, как крупные страны Европы, поэтому Россия и сама выступала объектом колониальной политики. Элементы такой политики проявились в торговых договорах с Германией 1894 и 1904 гг.
Немного найдется в истории дипломатии переговоров, которые бы тянулись так долго, как переговоры РФ с ВТО. Наконец, в ноябре 2011 г. переговорный процесс завершен. Пройден важный этап включения Российской Федерации в мировую экономическую систему. Задача данной статьи - проследить историческую эволюцию таможенного тарифа как основного инструмента торговой политики страны.
Есть ли смысл обсуждать здесь еще не наступившие последствия для отдельных отраслей? Известно, что в российском экспорте преобладает продукция начальных производственных стадий (топливо, сырье, материалы), а в импорте - продукция высокой степени обработки (в первую очередь, потребительские товары).
Это означает, что внешняя торговля мало затрагивает внутренние межотраслевые производственные связи, а следовательно, не стимулирует интеграцию между регионами страны, что создает дополнительные внутренние проблемы единства Федерации.
Проводя обзор теорий торговли в 2008 г., ВТО приводит и такие теории, которые свидетельствуют об уроне, наносимом свободной торговлей технологически отсталой стране: «Если существует достаточно большая разница в технологиях, выгоды от производительности для фирм в стране-лидере, связанные с новыми экспортными возможностями, могут быть настолько велики, что они с избытком компенсируют выгоду, которую экспортеры в технологически отсталой стране получают от снижения затрат на торговлю и, таким, образом, результат - это потеря конкурентоспособности последних». Другая цитата из того же доклада: «Влияние снижения барьеров для международной торговли на инновации и рост является позитивным в целом, но торговая либерализация может нанести ущерб некоторым секторам, которые находятся дальше от технологического фронта» [1].
